By Griffster
Okay, so here's my dire prediction: Unless one or two of the well-known unproductive pieces of the everyday Dodger lineup is switched out, or those pieces suddenly start playing out of their shoes, the Dodgers will finish the month of June with a .500 record.
Here's how they'll do it:
Current record: 34-25
Play: 1 game against the Padres today.
Result: loss.
Record: 34-26
( I mean, we're not going to beat Peavy with this lineup. Sad to say. At best we may hope for an improved performance from Kuo bolstering our hopes for the future. )
Play: three games against the Blue Jays.
Result: 1-2.
Record: 35-28
Now, on paper this series looks good for the Dodgers. We match three of our best, Penny, Lowe and Schmidt, against three pitchers from a below .500 team. The best of the bunch, number-wise, is Marcum with his 2-2 record and his 4.06 ERA, and he's up against Lowe.
In practice, though, the limp noodles that form our batting lineup will not be able to hit these guys well. Plus, Toronto plays in the AL, and they play with the BoSox. Their strength is not as bad as their record makes it seem.
Fortunately, the Dodgers play at home, but that will at most help them win a game ( make it tomorrow's, please, because I'm going to be there! )
Play: Three games against the Mets.
Result: 1-2
Record: 36-30
The Mets are rolling, and they're likely to send Hernandez ( 1.94 ERA ), Maine ( 2.81 ) and Sosa ( 3.22 ) against, probably, Wolf, Kuo and Penny ( or Lowe ). There's no escape, not even at home. I'm hoping we squeak out a win somewhere, but hey, I don't think it will happen. I'll leave the win there, though, and hope.
Play: Three games in Toronto.
Result: 0-3
Record: 36-33
Guys, it is an AL team in an AL park with artificial turf. Not a win in sight for us here. We're one for our last twenty-odd in AL parks. Just not happening.
Play: Three games at Tampa Bay.
Result: 1-2
Record: 37-35
Oh no! Another fake turf AL away series! Just because Tampa Bay is a bad team, we should be able to scratch out a win from somewhere.
Play: Four at Arizona.
Result: 2-2
Record: 39-37
This series comes at the end of a long road trip that went to the corners of the continent ( well, almost. Toronto to Tampa Bay to Arizona? Ouch. At least it will be a dry heat ). The Dodgers will be beat - by the travel schedule, the humid Tampa Bay air, the losses. Even with all of that, I sincerely hope they can split the series. Arizona have hopefully cooled off enough by then that we can pilfer two games.
Play: Two against Padres
Result: 0-2
Record: 39-39
What, we'll suddenly beat them when we couldn't before? Not if the lineup stays as weak. Padre pitching is truly dominant. Ours is just very good. And a weak lineup against dominant pitching means losses.
Okay, so those are my dire predictions for the Dodgers' near future. There's two sweeps in there, and there almost were three but I just couldn't bring myself to do it. ( Surely we'll be able to win at least one at home against the Mets? ) There's only one series tie predicted, the rest are losses.
Now, without a doubt nobody connected to the Dodgers want to see this happen. How do we avoid it?
Make. Some. Changes. Get rid of Murray and O'Donnely, or Pierre, or Nomar, or somebody else who is not pulling their weight. That'll shake everybody else up. You don't need to sweep them all out the door at once. Just get rid of one, maybe the rest will shape up. Baseball is a business, isn't it? You can only "believe" that someone will come around or start adding value for so long. Then you have to jettison the "believe in" you hold in that player, and find somebody who can actually get the job done. Playing a bad 7.5 million player just because you paid for him is bad business. You basically throw the other 99.5 million of your payroll in the water too, because that one player weakens the whole team.
I am fairly confident that my predictions will hold with the team playing at its current level. If some of the unproductive spots start producing, or if some changes are made, you can shimmy between two and four games from the loss column to the win column for this month. If, forbid, something bad happens like an injury to a productive component or somebody else slumping, you can peel off a win or two and move it to the losses. There won't be more wins lost, because there is already so few to be had. 5-13 is not going to be pretty, but that is the reality of our lineup of over-the-hill vets and the overpriced toothpick stick in center. At the very best we can hope to be around 43-38 at the end of the month ( if we really get surprising production from some of the weak spots in the lineup ) and at worst we may be 37-41.
Presumably the Padres and Diamondbacks will also be playing some tougher competition. The Padres also get Tampa Bay, and then they get Baez and the Orioles, and then the BoSox. But they have the Cubs while we have the Mets. The Snakes also get Tampa Bay, to go with the Yankees, the BoSox, and the Orioles. I don't know how the standings will shake out around us, I can only predict what I think our record will be.
07 June 2007
Juggling the Chairs on the Deck of a Sinking Ballclub
by Joshua Worley
From Ken Gurnick's latest dodgers.com piece: They'll need more than the 1-for-8 they got from Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal at the top of the batting order, prompting Little to concede he was "close" to shaking up the lineup.
Quote from Grady Little in the same article: "I keep having confidence that they can get it going," he said, "but at the same time, we're not in position where we repeat things that constantly aren't working for us. We may have to do some juggling."
I'm sure Little realizes the problem is Pierre, not Furcal. But I don't have any faith that "juggle" means anything more than putting Pierre down at the eight spot, which will still give him about 4 PA a game. Moving the on-base challenged Pierre down in the order might gain the Dodgers 0.04 extra baserunners per game, or about one extra baserunner every 25 games. ( I assume the following: Abreu and Pierre flip; Pierre will have about a 0.300 OBP moving forward, 0.350 for Abreu, and that the leadoff hitter gets an extra PA over the 8 hitter 7/9 of the time. If Abreu moves to the second spot and Furcal slides to leadoff it's much the same. )
I fear that if the Dodgers lose to Peavy tonight they won't see first place again this season.
From Ken Gurnick's latest dodgers.com piece: They'll need more than the 1-for-8 they got from Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal at the top of the batting order, prompting Little to concede he was "close" to shaking up the lineup.
Quote from Grady Little in the same article: "I keep having confidence that they can get it going," he said, "but at the same time, we're not in position where we repeat things that constantly aren't working for us. We may have to do some juggling."
I'm sure Little realizes the problem is Pierre, not Furcal. But I don't have any faith that "juggle" means anything more than putting Pierre down at the eight spot, which will still give him about 4 PA a game. Moving the on-base challenged Pierre down in the order might gain the Dodgers 0.04 extra baserunners per game, or about one extra baserunner every 25 games. ( I assume the following: Abreu and Pierre flip; Pierre will have about a 0.300 OBP moving forward, 0.350 for Abreu, and that the leadoff hitter gets an extra PA over the 8 hitter 7/9 of the time. If Abreu moves to the second spot and Furcal slides to leadoff it's much the same. )
I fear that if the Dodgers lose to Peavy tonight they won't see first place again this season.
06 June 2007
Looking Deeper
by Joshua Worley
I've been pondering the middling win-loss record of the San Diego bullpen a lot the last day, especially since the Padres won the first game of the series with the Dodgers. The Dodger 'pen gave up one run in two innings with a tie score and got the loss. Yes, the Dodger 'pen failed from the perspective that allowing even one run would doom the game, but it's not realistic to expect perfection every game from any 'pen. That the Dodger 'pen took the loss has more to do with how the offense played then how the 'pen pitched.
The Padre 'pen is 9-10 now, but how many of those losses were instances where the 'pen really, truly failed, and how many were results of a single run given up in a tie game?
Here's a summary of all ten Padre 'pen losses:
inherited score -- runs allowed -- innings pitched -- loser
tie -- 3 -- 5.0 -- Thompson
+2 -- 3 -- 1.2 -- Hoffman
+2 -- 4 -- 2.2 -- Hoffman
tie -- 1 -- 12.0 -- Hampson
+1 -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Linebrink
+1 -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Bell
+1 -- 2 -- 2.2 -- Meredith
tie -- 1 -- 4.0 -- Bell
tie -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Meredith
tie -- 1 -- 2.1 -- Meredith
The third and fourth 'pen losses were courtesy of the Dodgers. That fourth game was the 17 inning Dodger victory, and surely can't be called a 'pen failure for the Padres by any stretch. I would characterize only the 5 'pen losses when a lead was blown as a failure for the 'pen. And as it happens these are the only five games this year in which the Padre 'pen has given up a lead handed them by a starter. None of the 9 Padre 'pen wins have been "vultured", whereby the 'pen blows a lead and then gathers the win for themselves when the offense pulls the team back ahead. The Padre starters have handed 30 leads to the Padre 'pen, and the 'pen has blown just 5 of those leads.
I said in the last entry's title that the Padre 'pen was "sneaky bad", but that's just not true. I think they've just been a bit unlucky, and also the late-inning offense hasn't been so hot. The thing the Dodgers have to worry about is that if the Padres start getting a win-loss record from their 'pen more in line with how well it's pitched, then the Padres will easily pull far into first place, especially if the teams' current run differentials are an indicator of future play.
Here are the current run differentials:
team -- RS -- RA -- Diff
SD -- 246 -- 183 -- +63
LA -- 254 -- 228 -- +26
There's one thing about this, though. The Dodger pitching staff that allowed 228 runs in the first 58 games isn't the same staff that will be pitching in the next 58 games. Tomko and Hendrickson are out of the rotation, safely buried in mop-up roles in the 'pen. Schmidt is back and apparently healthy. I'm going to make an optimistic adjustment to the Dodger's runs allowed number to better reflect how they'll do going forward. Tomko, Hendrickson, and pre-injury Schmidt pitched 96.1 innings as starters and gave up 70 runs. I'm going to replace those innings with post-injury Schmidt and Kuo and optimistically assume a combined 3.5 ERA from them. Add in a few extra unearned runs, and you get just 40 runs allowed in the same 96.1 innings. Now those two should be pitching more than 96 innings over the next 60 games, but that will just replace a few back-end bullpen innings, which I'll call a wash. So by replacing the bad starters with good starters, the Dodgers might allow 30 fewer runs over the next 58 games.
Adjusted run differentials:
team -- RS -- RA -- Diff
SD -- 246 -- 183 -- +63
LA -- 254 -- 198 -- +56
So, there are a lot of caveats to this analysis. I called it optimistic for a reason. Kuo and Schmidt might not pitch as well as a 3.5 ERA. One or both might get hurt again. The other Dodger pitchers might do worse than they did in the last 58 games, especially Penny. The Padres may also improve on their run differential, something I haven't considered here.
However, barring injury there will be a real and important improvement to the Dodgers in the next 58 games and beyond. It might not be a 30 run improvement, but that's certianly not unrealistic. There's even a small chance the improvement could be by more than 30 runs over the next 58 games. In spite of this most recent frustrating loss and the Padres clear advantage in run differential, there is reason for hope.
Now if only Pierre could be replaced.
I've been pondering the middling win-loss record of the San Diego bullpen a lot the last day, especially since the Padres won the first game of the series with the Dodgers. The Dodger 'pen gave up one run in two innings with a tie score and got the loss. Yes, the Dodger 'pen failed from the perspective that allowing even one run would doom the game, but it's not realistic to expect perfection every game from any 'pen. That the Dodger 'pen took the loss has more to do with how the offense played then how the 'pen pitched.
The Padre 'pen is 9-10 now, but how many of those losses were instances where the 'pen really, truly failed, and how many were results of a single run given up in a tie game?
Here's a summary of all ten Padre 'pen losses:
inherited score -- runs allowed -- innings pitched -- loser
tie -- 3 -- 5.0 -- Thompson
+2 -- 3 -- 1.2 -- Hoffman
+2 -- 4 -- 2.2 -- Hoffman
tie -- 1 -- 12.0 -- Hampson
+1 -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Linebrink
+1 -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Bell
+1 -- 2 -- 2.2 -- Meredith
tie -- 1 -- 4.0 -- Bell
tie -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Meredith
tie -- 1 -- 2.1 -- Meredith
The third and fourth 'pen losses were courtesy of the Dodgers. That fourth game was the 17 inning Dodger victory, and surely can't be called a 'pen failure for the Padres by any stretch. I would characterize only the 5 'pen losses when a lead was blown as a failure for the 'pen. And as it happens these are the only five games this year in which the Padre 'pen has given up a lead handed them by a starter. None of the 9 Padre 'pen wins have been "vultured", whereby the 'pen blows a lead and then gathers the win for themselves when the offense pulls the team back ahead. The Padre starters have handed 30 leads to the Padre 'pen, and the 'pen has blown just 5 of those leads.
I said in the last entry's title that the Padre 'pen was "sneaky bad", but that's just not true. I think they've just been a bit unlucky, and also the late-inning offense hasn't been so hot. The thing the Dodgers have to worry about is that if the Padres start getting a win-loss record from their 'pen more in line with how well it's pitched, then the Padres will easily pull far into first place, especially if the teams' current run differentials are an indicator of future play.
Here are the current run differentials:
team -- RS -- RA -- Diff
SD -- 246 -- 183 -- +63
LA -- 254 -- 228 -- +26
There's one thing about this, though. The Dodger pitching staff that allowed 228 runs in the first 58 games isn't the same staff that will be pitching in the next 58 games. Tomko and Hendrickson are out of the rotation, safely buried in mop-up roles in the 'pen. Schmidt is back and apparently healthy. I'm going to make an optimistic adjustment to the Dodger's runs allowed number to better reflect how they'll do going forward. Tomko, Hendrickson, and pre-injury Schmidt pitched 96.1 innings as starters and gave up 70 runs. I'm going to replace those innings with post-injury Schmidt and Kuo and optimistically assume a combined 3.5 ERA from them. Add in a few extra unearned runs, and you get just 40 runs allowed in the same 96.1 innings. Now those two should be pitching more than 96 innings over the next 60 games, but that will just replace a few back-end bullpen innings, which I'll call a wash. So by replacing the bad starters with good starters, the Dodgers might allow 30 fewer runs over the next 58 games.
Adjusted run differentials:
team -- RS -- RA -- Diff
SD -- 246 -- 183 -- +63
LA -- 254 -- 198 -- +56
So, there are a lot of caveats to this analysis. I called it optimistic for a reason. Kuo and Schmidt might not pitch as well as a 3.5 ERA. One or both might get hurt again. The other Dodger pitchers might do worse than they did in the last 58 games, especially Penny. The Padres may also improve on their run differential, something I haven't considered here.
However, barring injury there will be a real and important improvement to the Dodgers in the next 58 games and beyond. It might not be a 30 run improvement, but that's certianly not unrealistic. There's even a small chance the improvement could be by more than 30 runs over the next 58 games. In spite of this most recent frustrating loss and the Padres clear advantage in run differential, there is reason for hope.
Now if only Pierre could be replaced.
05 June 2007
Padres Preview: A Sneaky Bad 'Pen
by Joshua Worley
The Padres are 33-23, with a terrific 245-183 run differential. The Dodgers are a half game up on the Padres, but if the win-loss records of the two teams were in line with their runs scored and allowed, the Padres would be 4.5 games up on the Dodgers. That's a five game swing from theory to reality. Thank goodness the Dodgers have been magically scrappy, able to bend reality to their will ... so far. But why have the Padres underperformed their run differential?
The Padres have a great bullpen that has also been a surprising weakness. Their 'pen has a terrific 2.18 ERA, best in the NL. They also have a record of 8-10. I know win-loss records aren't a good way to evaluate pitchers, or even an entire staff. But there is no getting away from the fact that TEN times this year the Padre relievers have turned a tie or lead into an eventual loss. Of the Padres 9 losses since April, SIX of them have gone to bullpen pitchers. Part of the blame for this can surely go to the late-inning offense of the Padres, but the 'pen must bear a lot of blame as well for failing in crucial situations. Not all 'pen innings are created equally. When it really counts, the Padre 'pen has often come up short.
The Dodger 'pen may have an ERA a full run higher at 3.2, but their record is 10-3, thanks in part to magically clutch late-inning offense, but also thanks to great pitching with the game on the line. Maybe the Padres 'pen will stop losing so many games over the rest of the year, and maybe the Dodgers 'pen will start losing more. Just by the numbers the Padres would be a good bet to have the better 'pen over the last four months of the season. But so far the Dodger 'pen has been better when it really counts, and has given the Dodgers a half game lead in the standings.
Before the Dodgers get into the Padres 'pen, they have to deal with their fearsome starting pitching. The Padres send their three best against the Dodger's current three worst, though the Dodger's worst might be pretty good now that Hendrickson and Tomko are exiled. The matchups are Schmidt v Young, Wolf v Maddux, and Kuo v Peavy. Schmidt is coming off injury and Kuo is just begining to start in the NL again, so it's impossible to know what to expect from them. They could be great, or they could be hammered. It doesn't seem likely they can go for more than five or six innings, though, so the Dodger 'pen will be tested in this series. Saito likely won't pitch in the series, so the burden on Broxton, Billingsley and Seanez will be even heavier. If we see Tomko or Hendrickson the game is likely already lost.
Kevin Kouzmanoff -- 3B
age: 25
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.205 -- 0.273 -- 0.363
Back in April, I wrote:
He's never hit in the big leagues yet, in all of 112 at bats. I presume he's better than his 0.238 OBP, but let's not have him start showing it against a couple of crappy Dodger pitchers, please.
He didn't start showing he was a better hitter against the Dodgers in that series, as he went 1-11 with no walks and 4 strikeouts. But he did start showing he's a better hitter in the latter half of May, after being benched several times during the first few weeks of May.
April -- 0.113 -- 0.171 -- 0.183
May -- 0.303 -- 0.375 -- 0.576
Is that even the same player? The Dodger pitchers better approach him as if it isn't. Kouz is clearly no longer the automatic out he once was, though it's far too soon to say that he's going to go on to a successful year. But an important part of the Padres nice record of 18-9 in May was Kouzmanoff's surge.
Adrian Gonzalez -- 1B
age: 25
bats: left
0.302 -- 0.369 -- 0.538
I hate the Rangers. I'm glad they're miserably mired in the muck of last place. Why did they have to just give away Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez to the Padres? Freaking miscreants. What a horrible trade that was, especially for the Dodgers. I'm sick of American League teams basically giving the Padres good young players for free.
Michael Terrance Cameron -- CF
age: 34
bats: right
0.239 -- 0.307 -- 0.390
Here's another Padre who had a great May after an awful April:
April -- 0.192 -- 0.267 -- 0.240
May -- 0.288 -- 0.357 -- 0.548
The rest of his year will likely be more like May than April, though without nearly so much power. Cameron was scratched from Sunday's lineup with a sore hamstring, though he did pinch hit. I'm guessing he'll be ready to go tonight.
Marcus William Giles -- 2B
age: 29
bats: right
0.278 -- 0.349 -- 0.382
Bucking the typical Padre trend, Giles had a bad May with a 0.626 OPS. The Padres Giles attack has been much diminished, with Marcus' struggles and Brian still on the DL with a right knee bone bruise. Brian is eligible to come off the DL for today's opener, but he isn't close to being ready to play yet.
Marcus has been batting leadoff lately. The Dodger absolutely have to keep this slumping player off the bases ahead of Adrian Gonzalez.
Terrmel Sledge -- LF
age: 30
bats: left
0.234 -- 0.348 -- 0.387
He's the regular left fielder now that Brian Giles is on the DL. Sledge was the third player the Padres got from the Rangers along with Young and Gonzalez in that awful trade. Sledge strikes out too much. He also doesn't hit lefties much, so Paul Michael McAnulty and his 0.529 OPS in 31 PA might get the start against Kuo or Wolf. The Padres are very thin in the outfield because of injuries right now, though, so Sledge might have to play against the lefties anyway. I'm not sure what else to say about Terrmel, except that he has a better OPS than Nomar Garciaparra.
Khalil Thabit Greene -- SS
age: 27
bats: right
0.221 -- 0.258 -- 0.428
More than half of his base hits go for extra bases. The problem with this is that he just doesn't get enough hits. He's especially bad at home, where he has a 0.161 batting average. If all goes well Greene will be an escape hatch from tough innings or another easy cog in a 1-2-3 inning for Dodger pitchers. If he ends up with more than one extra base hit in the series, then the Dodgers will have lost their chance to take advantage of his light hitting.
Joshua David Bard -- C
age: 29
bats: switch
0.264 -- 0.333 -- 0.372
Bard was suspended for three games after an altercation with umpires over a home run call, but he'll play against the Dodgers while the suspension is appealed. He's really had trouble at Petco this year. Outside of a few players, the Padre lineup isn't that tough, especially at Petco. The Dodgers and their middling offense have scored more than the Padres: it's the pitching that is the Padres true strength. It should be noted that given park effects, the Padres probably do have a slightly better offense than the Dodgers.
Jose Luis Cruz Jr -- RF
age: 33
bats: switch
0.274 -- 0.348 -- 0.459
Cruz has missed the last three games with back spasms, though he's supposed to be able to return for tonight's game. If he can't, McAnulty or Bocachica will be forced into action. The Padres are really short on outfielders right now, which is why they had to acquire Dodgerama favorite Hiram Bocachica in the first place.
As Cruz's playing time in May has gone up his stats have gotten worse, down to a 0.585 OPS in May. Cruz is a nice fourth outfielder to have around but he's not really an everyday starter.
Hiram Gabriel Bocachica -- OF
age: 31
bats: right
0.077 -- 0.138 -- 0.308
While in Oakland, Hiram had one home run and two walks in 20 plate appearances. The home run was his only hit. Hiram was designated for assignment after Bradley came off the DL, and the Padres grabbed him. With San Diego he's hit one home run with no walks in 9 plate appearances. Again, the home run is his only hit. He's like the second coming of Dave Kingman! I hope he starts all three games in the series against the Dodgers and adds to his out total.
Christopher Ryan Young -- P
age: 28
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.42 -- 67.0 -- 60 -- 26 -- 3
Young is a fly ball pitcher who isn't giving up home runs. Last year he gave up 28 in about 180 innings, while he's on pace to only give up 9 this year. I have a feeling Russ Martin may have something to say about his ridiculously low HR rate.
Young is the real deal, though. The last time he gave up more than 2 runs in a game was April. He gave up only 5 runs in all of May. Peavy was the NL pitcher of the month for May, but it just as easily could have been Young.
Young's worst start of the year came against the Dodgers, when they chased him after 2 innings while scoring 5 runs. It was the 5 walks allowed that really undid him against the Dodgers that day; the Dodgers have to be patient, work the count and foul off pitches to be successful against him again. With Nomar and Kent in the lineup, that may be hard.
Gregory Alan Maddux -- P
age: 41
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.92 -- 66.2 -- 41 -- 9 -- 4
What a treat it was to have Maddux pitch for the Dodgers, even if for only two months. I'm not upset that the Dodgers didn't sign him, not at all, but I am a bit sad that it just wasn't meant to be.
There will be lots of balls put into play when Maddux pitches, and the Dodgers fortunes will be determined by how many hits fall in. Maddux strikes out a decent but not great number of batters, and walks almost no one. The Wednesday night game will be one time when first pitch hitting by guys like Kent and Nomar might be the way to go, since working the count likely won't yield anything. But Maddux is so smart --- surely he knows guys like Kent and Nomar will be hacking early, and not give them anything to hit early in the count.
Even though Maddux doesn't walk people, the Dodgers should still try to work deep into the count to get his pitch count above 70 or so, after which he is no longer as effective. Or they might try hacking in the first inning, when Maddux often struggles. Early or late, that's the time to get Maddux.
Jacob Edward Peavy -- P
age: 26
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
1.68 -- 80.1 -- 92 -- 21 -- 1
All hail the master! The Dodger's only hope Thursday might be for Mariano Duncan to get into Peavy's head again.
Peavy gave up just 4 runs in May; he beat his teammate Young by one run allowed and so won the pitcher of the month award. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.4 this year, the most skewed toward grounders it's ever been.
Kuo has to be perfect against Peavy on Thursday night. The good news is that Kuo only has to match Peavy for a single game, not a whole year. Anything can happen in one game.
Predictions:
At this point I'm just hoping the Dodgers aren't swept, and to see Kuo and Schmidt pitch well. My only prediction about the series is that it will be very good to hear Vinny calling the games again. Truly, all hail the master.
The Padres are 33-23, with a terrific 245-183 run differential. The Dodgers are a half game up on the Padres, but if the win-loss records of the two teams were in line with their runs scored and allowed, the Padres would be 4.5 games up on the Dodgers. That's a five game swing from theory to reality. Thank goodness the Dodgers have been magically scrappy, able to bend reality to their will ... so far. But why have the Padres underperformed their run differential?
The Padres have a great bullpen that has also been a surprising weakness. Their 'pen has a terrific 2.18 ERA, best in the NL. They also have a record of 8-10. I know win-loss records aren't a good way to evaluate pitchers, or even an entire staff. But there is no getting away from the fact that TEN times this year the Padre relievers have turned a tie or lead into an eventual loss. Of the Padres 9 losses since April, SIX of them have gone to bullpen pitchers. Part of the blame for this can surely go to the late-inning offense of the Padres, but the 'pen must bear a lot of blame as well for failing in crucial situations. Not all 'pen innings are created equally. When it really counts, the Padre 'pen has often come up short.
The Dodger 'pen may have an ERA a full run higher at 3.2, but their record is 10-3, thanks in part to magically clutch late-inning offense, but also thanks to great pitching with the game on the line. Maybe the Padres 'pen will stop losing so many games over the rest of the year, and maybe the Dodgers 'pen will start losing more. Just by the numbers the Padres would be a good bet to have the better 'pen over the last four months of the season. But so far the Dodger 'pen has been better when it really counts, and has given the Dodgers a half game lead in the standings.
Before the Dodgers get into the Padres 'pen, they have to deal with their fearsome starting pitching. The Padres send their three best against the Dodger's current three worst, though the Dodger's worst might be pretty good now that Hendrickson and Tomko are exiled. The matchups are Schmidt v Young, Wolf v Maddux, and Kuo v Peavy. Schmidt is coming off injury and Kuo is just begining to start in the NL again, so it's impossible to know what to expect from them. They could be great, or they could be hammered. It doesn't seem likely they can go for more than five or six innings, though, so the Dodger 'pen will be tested in this series. Saito likely won't pitch in the series, so the burden on Broxton, Billingsley and Seanez will be even heavier. If we see Tomko or Hendrickson the game is likely already lost.
Kevin Kouzmanoff -- 3B
age: 25
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.205 -- 0.273 -- 0.363
Back in April, I wrote:
He's never hit in the big leagues yet, in all of 112 at bats. I presume he's better than his 0.238 OBP, but let's not have him start showing it against a couple of crappy Dodger pitchers, please.
He didn't start showing he was a better hitter against the Dodgers in that series, as he went 1-11 with no walks and 4 strikeouts. But he did start showing he's a better hitter in the latter half of May, after being benched several times during the first few weeks of May.
April -- 0.113 -- 0.171 -- 0.183
May -- 0.303 -- 0.375 -- 0.576
Is that even the same player? The Dodger pitchers better approach him as if it isn't. Kouz is clearly no longer the automatic out he once was, though it's far too soon to say that he's going to go on to a successful year. But an important part of the Padres nice record of 18-9 in May was Kouzmanoff's surge.
Adrian Gonzalez -- 1B
age: 25
bats: left
0.302 -- 0.369 -- 0.538
I hate the Rangers. I'm glad they're miserably mired in the muck of last place. Why did they have to just give away Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez to the Padres? Freaking miscreants. What a horrible trade that was, especially for the Dodgers. I'm sick of American League teams basically giving the Padres good young players for free.
Michael Terrance Cameron -- CF
age: 34
bats: right
0.239 -- 0.307 -- 0.390
Here's another Padre who had a great May after an awful April:
April -- 0.192 -- 0.267 -- 0.240
May -- 0.288 -- 0.357 -- 0.548
The rest of his year will likely be more like May than April, though without nearly so much power. Cameron was scratched from Sunday's lineup with a sore hamstring, though he did pinch hit. I'm guessing he'll be ready to go tonight.
Marcus William Giles -- 2B
age: 29
bats: right
0.278 -- 0.349 -- 0.382
Bucking the typical Padre trend, Giles had a bad May with a 0.626 OPS. The Padres Giles attack has been much diminished, with Marcus' struggles and Brian still on the DL with a right knee bone bruise. Brian is eligible to come off the DL for today's opener, but he isn't close to being ready to play yet.
Marcus has been batting leadoff lately. The Dodger absolutely have to keep this slumping player off the bases ahead of Adrian Gonzalez.
Terrmel Sledge -- LF
age: 30
bats: left
0.234 -- 0.348 -- 0.387
He's the regular left fielder now that Brian Giles is on the DL. Sledge was the third player the Padres got from the Rangers along with Young and Gonzalez in that awful trade. Sledge strikes out too much. He also doesn't hit lefties much, so Paul Michael McAnulty and his 0.529 OPS in 31 PA might get the start against Kuo or Wolf. The Padres are very thin in the outfield because of injuries right now, though, so Sledge might have to play against the lefties anyway. I'm not sure what else to say about Terrmel, except that he has a better OPS than Nomar Garciaparra.
Khalil Thabit Greene -- SS
age: 27
bats: right
0.221 -- 0.258 -- 0.428
More than half of his base hits go for extra bases. The problem with this is that he just doesn't get enough hits. He's especially bad at home, where he has a 0.161 batting average. If all goes well Greene will be an escape hatch from tough innings or another easy cog in a 1-2-3 inning for Dodger pitchers. If he ends up with more than one extra base hit in the series, then the Dodgers will have lost their chance to take advantage of his light hitting.
Joshua David Bard -- C
age: 29
bats: switch
0.264 -- 0.333 -- 0.372
Bard was suspended for three games after an altercation with umpires over a home run call, but he'll play against the Dodgers while the suspension is appealed. He's really had trouble at Petco this year. Outside of a few players, the Padre lineup isn't that tough, especially at Petco. The Dodgers and their middling offense have scored more than the Padres: it's the pitching that is the Padres true strength. It should be noted that given park effects, the Padres probably do have a slightly better offense than the Dodgers.
Jose Luis Cruz Jr -- RF
age: 33
bats: switch
0.274 -- 0.348 -- 0.459
Cruz has missed the last three games with back spasms, though he's supposed to be able to return for tonight's game. If he can't, McAnulty or Bocachica will be forced into action. The Padres are really short on outfielders right now, which is why they had to acquire Dodgerama favorite Hiram Bocachica in the first place.
As Cruz's playing time in May has gone up his stats have gotten worse, down to a 0.585 OPS in May. Cruz is a nice fourth outfielder to have around but he's not really an everyday starter.
Hiram Gabriel Bocachica -- OF
age: 31
bats: right
0.077 -- 0.138 -- 0.308
While in Oakland, Hiram had one home run and two walks in 20 plate appearances. The home run was his only hit. Hiram was designated for assignment after Bradley came off the DL, and the Padres grabbed him. With San Diego he's hit one home run with no walks in 9 plate appearances. Again, the home run is his only hit. He's like the second coming of Dave Kingman! I hope he starts all three games in the series against the Dodgers and adds to his out total.
Christopher Ryan Young -- P
age: 28
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.42 -- 67.0 -- 60 -- 26 -- 3
Young is a fly ball pitcher who isn't giving up home runs. Last year he gave up 28 in about 180 innings, while he's on pace to only give up 9 this year. I have a feeling Russ Martin may have something to say about his ridiculously low HR rate.
Young is the real deal, though. The last time he gave up more than 2 runs in a game was April. He gave up only 5 runs in all of May. Peavy was the NL pitcher of the month for May, but it just as easily could have been Young.
Young's worst start of the year came against the Dodgers, when they chased him after 2 innings while scoring 5 runs. It was the 5 walks allowed that really undid him against the Dodgers that day; the Dodgers have to be patient, work the count and foul off pitches to be successful against him again. With Nomar and Kent in the lineup, that may be hard.
Gregory Alan Maddux -- P
age: 41
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.92 -- 66.2 -- 41 -- 9 -- 4
What a treat it was to have Maddux pitch for the Dodgers, even if for only two months. I'm not upset that the Dodgers didn't sign him, not at all, but I am a bit sad that it just wasn't meant to be.
There will be lots of balls put into play when Maddux pitches, and the Dodgers fortunes will be determined by how many hits fall in. Maddux strikes out a decent but not great number of batters, and walks almost no one. The Wednesday night game will be one time when first pitch hitting by guys like Kent and Nomar might be the way to go, since working the count likely won't yield anything. But Maddux is so smart --- surely he knows guys like Kent and Nomar will be hacking early, and not give them anything to hit early in the count.
Even though Maddux doesn't walk people, the Dodgers should still try to work deep into the count to get his pitch count above 70 or so, after which he is no longer as effective. Or they might try hacking in the first inning, when Maddux often struggles. Early or late, that's the time to get Maddux.
Jacob Edward Peavy -- P
age: 26
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
1.68 -- 80.1 -- 92 -- 21 -- 1
All hail the master! The Dodger's only hope Thursday might be for Mariano Duncan to get into Peavy's head again.
Peavy gave up just 4 runs in May; he beat his teammate Young by one run allowed and so won the pitcher of the month award. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.4 this year, the most skewed toward grounders it's ever been.
Kuo has to be perfect against Peavy on Thursday night. The good news is that Kuo only has to match Peavy for a single game, not a whole year. Anything can happen in one game.
Predictions:
At this point I'm just hoping the Dodgers aren't swept, and to see Kuo and Schmidt pitch well. My only prediction about the series is that it will be very good to hear Vinny calling the games again. Truly, all hail the master.
04 June 2007
The First Place Series
by Joshua Worley
The three Dodger wins in the Pirate series are the kinds of games the Dodgers will have to win to be a first place team. Some teams are first place teams because they outscore their opposition by plenty. Those teams are the elite teams. Other teams are first place teams because they outscore their opposition by a decent amount and do really well in close games. Those teams are magically scrappy. The Dodgers are magically scrappy. Seriously, this isn't meant as a put-down of them. All kudos to them for pulling it off so far. It's a fun way to be in first place. It's also a dangerous way to be in first place, because it's not certain that they can keep it up. Now a GM should think that it won't keep up. A fan doesn't have to think that way, though.
Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, New York (N), Los Angeles of Anaheim and San Diego have all outscored their opponents by plenty, and all are in first place or in the wild card position. They are the elite teams. Below these 6 elite teams are 7 teams who have outscored their opponents from anywhere between 35 and 15 runs. That range of run differential a third of the way into the season is a hit or miss sort of thing. You're just as likely to have a losing record as you are to be in first place with this kind of run differential. Here are all the teams that have outscored their opposition by between 15 and 35 runs:
34 - 23 --- Los Angeles
34 - 24 --- Arizona
29 - 27 --- Oakland
28 - 27 --- Minnesota
27 - 29 --- San Francisco
24 - 31 --- Chicago (N)
24 - 31 --- New York (A)
Having a decent run differential could get you in first place, or it earn you a place as one of the season's massive disappointments. There are five teams in this group, more than half, who are well out of a playoff spot right now. There's no room for error when you don't outscore your opponents by that much.
The three Dodger wins in the Pirate series are the kinds of games the Dodgers will have to win to be a first place team. Some teams are first place teams because they outscore their opposition by plenty. Those teams are the elite teams. Other teams are first place teams because they outscore their opposition by a decent amount and do really well in close games. Those teams are magically scrappy. The Dodgers are magically scrappy. Seriously, this isn't meant as a put-down of them. All kudos to them for pulling it off so far. It's a fun way to be in first place. It's also a dangerous way to be in first place, because it's not certain that they can keep it up. Now a GM should think that it won't keep up. A fan doesn't have to think that way, though.
Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, New York (N), Los Angeles of Anaheim and San Diego have all outscored their opponents by plenty, and all are in first place or in the wild card position. They are the elite teams. Below these 6 elite teams are 7 teams who have outscored their opponents from anywhere between 35 and 15 runs. That range of run differential a third of the way into the season is a hit or miss sort of thing. You're just as likely to have a losing record as you are to be in first place with this kind of run differential. Here are all the teams that have outscored their opposition by between 15 and 35 runs:
34 - 23 --- Los Angeles
34 - 24 --- Arizona
29 - 27 --- Oakland
28 - 27 --- Minnesota
27 - 29 --- San Francisco
24 - 31 --- Chicago (N)
24 - 31 --- New York (A)
Having a decent run differential could get you in first place, or it earn you a place as one of the season's massive disappointments. There are five teams in this group, more than half, who are well out of a playoff spot right now. There's no room for error when you don't outscore your opponents by that much.
03 June 2007
Statless Dodger Review --- 3 June 2007
by Joshua Worley
The past two games have forcefully reminded me how thin the Dodger margin for success is. The offense feels like it's ready to collapse into a puddle of stranded singles. The only reliable defenders the Dodgers have are their strikeout pitchers. So much is asked of the bullpen. They deliver, but I wonder how long they can. The Dodgers won by one run today in a wonderful comeback victory. They needed this unexpected win to stay in first place, and I fear they will need many more close, unexpected wins to remain in first place for the remainder of the season. If they can pull it off, that's great. How exciting that will be! But if not ... and the difference between first and second was one or two talented youngsters being denied playing time in favor of mediocre, highly-paid veterans, then the failure will as bitter as a ninth-inning loss to the Giants.
Being a baseball fan is essentially an emotional experience. This is an emotional review of the season so far.
Jon Broxton needs a good off-speed pitch. When the location of his fastball is a bit off he can be in trouble. When he misses up in the zone hitters can time it and rip it. If Broxton had a Gagne-like change-up hitters couldn't time the fastball as easily, and he could get away with not having perfect location on it. Broxton is already an elite relief pitcher with the pitches he throws now, but he could be nearly rally-proof if he increased the velocity range of his pitches. If Broxton had a good change-up, he would be like the gigantic love-child of Gagne and Saito.
What happens when Takashi Saito is no longer perfect, or is hurt for an extended period of time? What do the Dodgers do then? What will happen to their terrific record in close games? The Dodgers have so many players they rely on to win the way they do; if one falters then they will likely stumble deep into third place. Have we seen the first stumble of an essential Dodger player? Only losing Martin would hurt more than losing Saito.
Brad Penny wasn't going to give up no home runs for the entire year, but did he have to give up two in one game? Is he going to start to give them up in bunches? Does Penny even know how he was accomplishing this homer-less streak, or was it just him hoping things worked out with each pitch? Will he start striking out more batters now that he's started giving up home runs again? Will the Dodger offense start scoring more runs if Penny stops pitching like Jake Peavy, to make up the sudden performance deficit?
Jeff Kent cost the Dodgers and Kuo two runs on Saturday by failing to field a double play ball hit to his right. Jeff Kent has cost the Dodgers offense many precious outs during his week-long slump. He's cost the Dodgers a chance to run up the pitch count on starters by so often going out on the first pitch. He's going the cost the Dodgers millions of dollars when he piles up enough plate appearances to trigger his option for next year. He's also going to cost the Dodgers a roster spot and playing time that might better go to a younger player. Such a costly player, all for a few home runs. Right now the Dodgers aren't getting much for the high cost they're paying.
I felt sick when Juan Pierre was signed in the off-season. That feeling came from the knowledge that management was not careful with who they invited into the lineup. They ran heedless into a five year commitment. A pitcher may be easily booted from the rotation when he is awful, but a position player is often much harder to dislodge, especially a veteran with a long contract. Pierre stubbornly clings to a decent looking batting average as management stubbornly clings to the idea that Pierre deserves a spot in the lineup. Equally careless, equally clueless, Pierre and management share an embrace of mediocrity.
Nomar Garciaparra has lost his way. The fans who cheer the loudest for him during lineup introductions have lost their way too. They're cheering for singles and outs and nothing else. They're cheering for singles with runners on ... and lots of outs. They're cheering for first pitch outs and double plays to end the inning. They're cheering for James Loney in the minor leauges. I don't want them to boo Nomar. I ask, merely, that Nomar be greeted by polite applause. Seven perfunctory claps to match the syllables in his name, and nothing more.
If Andre Ethier can consistently hit crucial late-inning home runs for the Dodgers, I won't complain about his many faults as a hitter. I won't complain that he doesn't walk much, that he swings at crap too much. I won't complain about how his sky-high batting average from 2006 seems like such a lie now, a misrepresentation of what he was, like padding in a bra. I won't worry that the Dodgers can't score enough runs to stay in first place with a weak hitting right fielder in their lineup. If he keeps hitting those clutch home runs, I'll only think about his wonderful defense, and forget about his woeful offense. I won't whisper the name Matt Kemp. Do you have it in you, Ethier? Can you keep Matt Kemp at bay with your late inning magic?
Tony Abreu thrills me with his hitting. I close my eyes and see him ripping a double down the line. Either line; he does them both! Then I wonder, what happens when the hits stop coming? The man he replaced had a plan B. Andy LaRoche could contribute to the offense if the hits weren't falling. When Andy went 1 for 12, he would still got on base 3 or 4 times. How many times will Abreu get on base when he goes 1 for 12?
Russ Martin is the heart and soul of the Dodgers. Russ Martin is the blood and breath of the Dodgers. Russ Martin is the spirit and mind of the Dodgers. Russ Martin is the captain and chaplain of the Dodgers. Russ Martin swings the bat and losses turn into victories. He throws the ball and singles turn into outs. Russ Martin plays six days out of seven and turns a third place team into a first place team.
The past two games have forcefully reminded me how thin the Dodger margin for success is. The offense feels like it's ready to collapse into a puddle of stranded singles. The only reliable defenders the Dodgers have are their strikeout pitchers. So much is asked of the bullpen. They deliver, but I wonder how long they can. The Dodgers won by one run today in a wonderful comeback victory. They needed this unexpected win to stay in first place, and I fear they will need many more close, unexpected wins to remain in first place for the remainder of the season. If they can pull it off, that's great. How exciting that will be! But if not ... and the difference between first and second was one or two talented youngsters being denied playing time in favor of mediocre, highly-paid veterans, then the failure will as bitter as a ninth-inning loss to the Giants.
Being a baseball fan is essentially an emotional experience. This is an emotional review of the season so far.
Jon Broxton needs a good off-speed pitch. When the location of his fastball is a bit off he can be in trouble. When he misses up in the zone hitters can time it and rip it. If Broxton had a Gagne-like change-up hitters couldn't time the fastball as easily, and he could get away with not having perfect location on it. Broxton is already an elite relief pitcher with the pitches he throws now, but he could be nearly rally-proof if he increased the velocity range of his pitches. If Broxton had a good change-up, he would be like the gigantic love-child of Gagne and Saito.
What happens when Takashi Saito is no longer perfect, or is hurt for an extended period of time? What do the Dodgers do then? What will happen to their terrific record in close games? The Dodgers have so many players they rely on to win the way they do; if one falters then they will likely stumble deep into third place. Have we seen the first stumble of an essential Dodger player? Only losing Martin would hurt more than losing Saito.
Brad Penny wasn't going to give up no home runs for the entire year, but did he have to give up two in one game? Is he going to start to give them up in bunches? Does Penny even know how he was accomplishing this homer-less streak, or was it just him hoping things worked out with each pitch? Will he start striking out more batters now that he's started giving up home runs again? Will the Dodger offense start scoring more runs if Penny stops pitching like Jake Peavy, to make up the sudden performance deficit?
Jeff Kent cost the Dodgers and Kuo two runs on Saturday by failing to field a double play ball hit to his right. Jeff Kent has cost the Dodgers offense many precious outs during his week-long slump. He's cost the Dodgers a chance to run up the pitch count on starters by so often going out on the first pitch. He's going the cost the Dodgers millions of dollars when he piles up enough plate appearances to trigger his option for next year. He's also going to cost the Dodgers a roster spot and playing time that might better go to a younger player. Such a costly player, all for a few home runs. Right now the Dodgers aren't getting much for the high cost they're paying.
I felt sick when Juan Pierre was signed in the off-season. That feeling came from the knowledge that management was not careful with who they invited into the lineup. They ran heedless into a five year commitment. A pitcher may be easily booted from the rotation when he is awful, but a position player is often much harder to dislodge, especially a veteran with a long contract. Pierre stubbornly clings to a decent looking batting average as management stubbornly clings to the idea that Pierre deserves a spot in the lineup. Equally careless, equally clueless, Pierre and management share an embrace of mediocrity.
Nomar Garciaparra has lost his way. The fans who cheer the loudest for him during lineup introductions have lost their way too. They're cheering for singles and outs and nothing else. They're cheering for singles with runners on ... and lots of outs. They're cheering for first pitch outs and double plays to end the inning. They're cheering for James Loney in the minor leauges. I don't want them to boo Nomar. I ask, merely, that Nomar be greeted by polite applause. Seven perfunctory claps to match the syllables in his name, and nothing more.
If Andre Ethier can consistently hit crucial late-inning home runs for the Dodgers, I won't complain about his many faults as a hitter. I won't complain that he doesn't walk much, that he swings at crap too much. I won't complain about how his sky-high batting average from 2006 seems like such a lie now, a misrepresentation of what he was, like padding in a bra. I won't worry that the Dodgers can't score enough runs to stay in first place with a weak hitting right fielder in their lineup. If he keeps hitting those clutch home runs, I'll only think about his wonderful defense, and forget about his woeful offense. I won't whisper the name Matt Kemp. Do you have it in you, Ethier? Can you keep Matt Kemp at bay with your late inning magic?
Tony Abreu thrills me with his hitting. I close my eyes and see him ripping a double down the line. Either line; he does them both! Then I wonder, what happens when the hits stop coming? The man he replaced had a plan B. Andy LaRoche could contribute to the offense if the hits weren't falling. When Andy went 1 for 12, he would still got on base 3 or 4 times. How many times will Abreu get on base when he goes 1 for 12?
Russ Martin is the heart and soul of the Dodgers. Russ Martin is the blood and breath of the Dodgers. Russ Martin is the spirit and mind of the Dodgers. Russ Martin is the captain and chaplain of the Dodgers. Russ Martin swings the bat and losses turn into victories. He throws the ball and singles turn into outs. Russ Martin plays six days out of seven and turns a third place team into a first place team.
01 June 2007
Pirates Preview
by Joshua Worley
The Pirates are boring and bad. They are 23-30, with a run differential of 218-256. Their dismal record is good for second in the NL central, tied with two other dismal teams. The Pirate offense is below average. The Pirate pitching is below average. The bullpen is especially awful, with a 4.78 ERA. Just last night they blew a 2-0 lead in the ninth to the Padres. Stupid Pirates.
This is the second preview I've written for the Pirates, which is a Dodgerama first. That first preview didn't have player capsules, though. It did list the Pirates lineup along with some awful on base percentages. Below is the current Pirate lineup, along with current on-base percentages and change in OBP from the last time these teams played. The order of the lineup has changed, but none of the players in it have, which is not good news for the Bucs. I would call it rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the Bucs aren't interesting enough to be compared with the Titanic.
pos -- OBP -- change -- name
3B -- 0.346 -- (+42) -- Bautista
CF -- 0.296 -- (-59) -- Duffy
2B -- 0.314 -- (-10) -- Sanchez
LF -- 0.385 -- (+30) -- Bay
1B -- 0.319 -- (+69) -- LaRoche
RF -- 0.319 -- (-14) -- Nady
C -- 0.259 -- (+35) -- Paulino
SS -- 0.307 -- (-21) -- Wilson
Four players have improved their OBP from the last time these teams met, while four have declined, though overall there has been a net improvement. Still, I expected to see more improvement than this.
If Kuo is called up as expected, the pitching matchups are Wolf v Duke, Kuo v Snell, Penny v Gorzelanny, and Lowe v Maholm.
edit: Eric Hull has been called up, with Kuo still down for now. I have no idea what this means for the starter on Saturday.
edit-edit: Quote from the LA times, via link from True Blue LA: "Right now, I'm leaning toward Kuo," Little said. "I'm fairly confident that will be the guy." I guess that means it's Kuo. Who else can it be, realistically? Still, he didn't say it would be Kuo for sure.
Jose Antonio Bautista -- 3B
age: 26
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.268 -- 0.346 -- 0.404
Bautista is batting leadoff now after spending the early part of the season batting eighth. Does this mean Jim Tracy likes him, or does it means he dislikes someone else?
Bautista seems a fairly average third baseman, maybe slightly below average. He hits a lot better on the road then at home over his last two seasons with the Pirates. If all goes well he will feature in a lot of 1-2-3 innings for the Dodger pitchers to keep Bay from coming up with men on base.
Jack Eugene Wilson -- SS
age: 29
bats: right
0.251 -- 0.307 -- 0.344
Wilson has been demoted to the eighth spot after batting second earlier in the year. But that's not going to hide him from hurting the Pirates. He just doesn't offer much to a team. His defense is about average; his hitting is way below average. He's a boring player on a boring team who should hit a lot of boring ground balls to short.
Now let me describe this mediocre offensive player's home/road splits in a very depressing way. At home he has the OPS of Juan Pierre. On the road he has the OPS of Nomar Garciaparra. If Nomar doesn't start hitting better soon he's going to leapfrog Pierre as the biggest offensive black hole on the Dodgers.
Ronny Leonel Paulino -- C
age: 26
bats: right
0.218 -- 0.259 -- 0.340
Even for a catcher this is bad. I've seen a lot of bad hitting catcher batting lines while doing these previews, but this is the worst. The sad part is that he's doing better that he was the last time the Dodgers played the Buccos ... a lot better!
The only qualified ML catcher with a worse OPS than Paulino is Jason Kendall, who is having a truly wretched, awful year. If the Dodger played the A's I would refuse to print Kendall's line, it's so bad. Kendall is so bad that the distance between him and Paulino is the same as the distance between Paulino and Brian McCann. And Brian McCann is really good.
Christopher Ellis Duffy -- CF
age: 27
bats: left
0.241 -- 0.296 -- 0.348
The Pirates are a depressing team; and Duffy is a despressing player on a despressing team. Last year Duffy and Tracy butted heads in spring training when Tracy wanted Duffy to change his approach at the plate. Duffy had batted 0.341 in 2005, and in the spring of 2006 I'm sure he thought there was no way he needed to change anything. And my initial inclination is to rip into Tracy for being a arrogant meddler who thinks he knows a lot more than he does. Okay, what did Tracy want to do with him?
Tracy attempted to convert him into a conventional leadoff hitter when spring training began, and Duffy never seemed comfortable taking a lot of pitches, drawing walks or looking to bunt.
That sounds okay, mostly. But a few months into 2006, Duffy wasn't hitting, and the Pirates wanted to demote him to AAA, only Duffy refused, so he was put on the restricted list. Duffy kept in shape at home doing "baseball related activities" while on the restricted list. Finally a month later Duffy relented and accepted his demotion, and a month after that Duffy was back up with the big club and did better in his second go around with the team in 2006.
The depressing part of all of this is that all this angst and conflict wasn't really necessary. The fact is Duffy probably just isn't that good. His 0.341 average in 2005 came in only 39 games; it's not a meaningful sample. He never showed much in the minor leagues given his age in each level. Duffy isn't as good as he thinks he is, and Tracy can't mold players the way he thinks he can. If everyone had just recognized initially that Duffy is a marginal big leaguer, then the restricted list mess might have been avoided. Duffy is not a diamond in the rough like LoDuca or Gagne. He's a fourth outfielder who is starting for a bad team.
Frederick Phillip Sanchez -- 2B
age: 29
bats: right
0.285 -- 0.314 -- 0.337
Sanchez didn't walk much last year or hit for much power, but he did have a 0.344 batting average. If his batting average ever came back down to earth, he was going to turn into a below average second baseman. Sadly for the Pirates, that's what has happened.
Sanchez's line drive rate has dropped from 28% to 18% this year, while he's striking out more. That's why he's batting below 0.300 now. Last year was probably a career year, this year is probably who he'll be for the rest of his likely brief starting career. Baseball is a brutal game.
In any case, here is another hitter the Dodger pitchers should get out a lot.
David Adam LaRoche -- 1B
age: 27
bats: left
0.214 -- 0.319 -- 0.352
Will he and brother Andy on the Dodgers have only one game against each other before Andy is send down to make room for Kuo?
Adam had a terrible OPS of 0.520 in April. In May his OPS of 0.805 is much closer to his career average of 0.820. The Pirates traded their best reliever of 2006 ( Mike Gonzalez ) to get LaRoche. Without Gonzalez, the Pirate 'pen has been pretty bad. With LaRoche and his crummy April, the Pirate offense has been as bad as ever. While the trade might eventually be a net plus for the Pirates, it should help the Dodgers in this series because they won't have to face Gonzalez with the game close.
Xavier Clifford Nady -- RF
age: 28
bats: right
0.284 -- 0.319 -- 0.465
Brewers, do you want to know why no one takes you and the division you lead seriously? Here's one answer: the second place team in your division has Xavier Nady as their second best hitter.
The other reason no one takes the Brewers very seriously these days is that they're in freefall with only a +8 run differential on the season.
Jason Raymond Bay -- LF
age: 28
bats: right
0.310 -- 0.385 -- 0.517
Bay has 14 hits with 3 home runs in his last 7 games. I say he's due for a slump!
Ryan Matthew Doumit -- RF/C
age: 26
bats: switch
0.326 -- 0.390 -- 0.526
This man can do everything! Bat left, bat right, catch, play the outfield, give someone the evil eye with both eyes without even trying, ride the bench while worse players start in front of him ...
I think more teams should have a back-up catcher who also can play at other places on the field. I hate it when a roster spot is wasted on a pure backup catcher who almost never plays or pinch hits. This is one area where the Pirates have it right.
Except, wait, the Pirates are carrying a third catcher! Arrrgggghhh! Not only are they not getting it right, they're getting it horribly wrong. Why exactly is Humberto Figueroa Cota on the roster? Is is just for his glorious name? He's played in all of 5 games, all catching. Doumit has played catcher in 10 games. Why couldn't Doumit have started the 5 games Cota started, giving him more playing time and allowing the Pirates to carry another useful player?
Such waste. Doumit needs to play more, get more of a chance to show what he can do, and Cota needs to be off the roster, but with Jim Tracy involved, what are the odds of either of these things happening?
All this said, the superstitious part of me hopes the Dodgers don't see Cota in this series. In Cota's five games played this year, the only one the Pirates won was a 7-5 decision against ... the Dodgers.
And a different, unrelated, but still irrational part of me hopes Doumit doesn't play because he has the most evil eyes I've ever seen. They're like two pools of pure night!
Zachary Thomas Duke -- P
age: 24
throws: left
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.55 -- 60.0 -- 18 -- 13 -- 8
Is Duke hurt? His strikeout total is ridiculously low. Among major league pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched, Duke ranks 284 out of 287 in strikeouts per nine innings at a horrific 2.70.
Duke's K rate has been dropping ever since his K/9 was above 9 in high A at age 21. He was at 5.5 K/9 in AAA the next year, and then 6.2 K/9 after his callup to the Pirates that year. He went 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in the last half of 2005 with the Bucs, and everyone thought he was the next big thing.
But in 2006 his K/9 was below 5, and this year it's just horrible. Combined with all the home runs Duke gives up it's amazing his ERA isn't higher than it is. The Dodgers should hammer him; they need to hammer him.
Ian Dante Snell -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.14 -- 71.2 -- 58 -- 22 -- 6
Snell has a much more impressive minor league record than Duke in the category of strikeouts per nine innings. He posted a K/9 of at least 8 at every minor league stop where he pitched at least 15 games, including AA and AAA.
I hope Kuo and the Dodger 'pen is up to the task of matching Snell.
Thomas Stephen Gorzelanny -- P
age: 24
throws: left
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.39 -- 71.2 -- 43 -- 21 -- 3
So far Gorzelanny is following the Penny model of success: he has a decent but not great K rate to go with a fantastic home run rate. In fact Penny's line is 2.06 -- 70.0 -- 43 -- 22 -- 0, almost identical to Gorzelanny's. Eerie! We'll get to see who applies this model of pitching the best on Sunday as Gorzelanny and Penny face off. It's the battle of pitchers whose names end in "nny"!
Penny is better, though. He has the superior career track record and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is 2 this year, while Gorzelanny's is just 1. Penny has a much better shot of sustaining his low home run rate than Gorzelanny does.
Paul Gurner Maholm -- P
age: 24
throws: left
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.35 -- 65.2 -- 39 -- 18 -- 12
He's Gorzelanny ( or Penny ) but with a ton of home runs given up. So, I guess if Penny ever starts giving up homers he'll turn into Paul Maholm. Kerbleh.
The Dodgers have a big advantage in the first and last games of the series, with Wolf and Lowe against Duke and Maholm. The middle two games look more like tossups, though the Dodgers do have the better offense going in each of those games unless a whole bunch of starters sit. Martin will likely rest during one of the middle games.
With a three way tie for first place entering the series and the Padres playing the Nats, the Dodgers really need to pick up the sweep here. It's in their reach. Minimum acceptable result here is 3 out of 4. Losing the series would be a complete disaster.
The Pirates are boring and bad. They are 23-30, with a run differential of 218-256. Their dismal record is good for second in the NL central, tied with two other dismal teams. The Pirate offense is below average. The Pirate pitching is below average. The bullpen is especially awful, with a 4.78 ERA. Just last night they blew a 2-0 lead in the ninth to the Padres. Stupid Pirates.
This is the second preview I've written for the Pirates, which is a Dodgerama first. That first preview didn't have player capsules, though. It did list the Pirates lineup along with some awful on base percentages. Below is the current Pirate lineup, along with current on-base percentages and change in OBP from the last time these teams played. The order of the lineup has changed, but none of the players in it have, which is not good news for the Bucs. I would call it rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, but the Bucs aren't interesting enough to be compared with the Titanic.
pos -- OBP -- change -- name
3B -- 0.346 -- (+42) -- Bautista
CF -- 0.296 -- (-59) -- Duffy
2B -- 0.314 -- (-10) -- Sanchez
LF -- 0.385 -- (+30) -- Bay
1B -- 0.319 -- (+69) -- LaRoche
RF -- 0.319 -- (-14) -- Nady
C -- 0.259 -- (+35) -- Paulino
SS -- 0.307 -- (-21) -- Wilson
Four players have improved their OBP from the last time these teams met, while four have declined, though overall there has been a net improvement. Still, I expected to see more improvement than this.
If Kuo is called up as expected, the pitching matchups are Wolf v Duke, Kuo v Snell, Penny v Gorzelanny, and Lowe v Maholm.
edit: Eric Hull has been called up, with Kuo still down for now. I have no idea what this means for the starter on Saturday.
edit-edit: Quote from the LA times, via link from True Blue LA: "Right now, I'm leaning toward Kuo," Little said. "I'm fairly confident that will be the guy." I guess that means it's Kuo. Who else can it be, realistically? Still, he didn't say it would be Kuo for sure.
Jose Antonio Bautista -- 3B
age: 26
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.268 -- 0.346 -- 0.404
Bautista is batting leadoff now after spending the early part of the season batting eighth. Does this mean Jim Tracy likes him, or does it means he dislikes someone else?
Bautista seems a fairly average third baseman, maybe slightly below average. He hits a lot better on the road then at home over his last two seasons with the Pirates. If all goes well he will feature in a lot of 1-2-3 innings for the Dodger pitchers to keep Bay from coming up with men on base.
Jack Eugene Wilson -- SS
age: 29
bats: right
0.251 -- 0.307 -- 0.344
Wilson has been demoted to the eighth spot after batting second earlier in the year. But that's not going to hide him from hurting the Pirates. He just doesn't offer much to a team. His defense is about average; his hitting is way below average. He's a boring player on a boring team who should hit a lot of boring ground balls to short.
Now let me describe this mediocre offensive player's home/road splits in a very depressing way. At home he has the OPS of Juan Pierre. On the road he has the OPS of Nomar Garciaparra. If Nomar doesn't start hitting better soon he's going to leapfrog Pierre as the biggest offensive black hole on the Dodgers.
Ronny Leonel Paulino -- C
age: 26
bats: right
0.218 -- 0.259 -- 0.340
Even for a catcher this is bad. I've seen a lot of bad hitting catcher batting lines while doing these previews, but this is the worst. The sad part is that he's doing better that he was the last time the Dodgers played the Buccos ... a lot better!
The only qualified ML catcher with a worse OPS than Paulino is Jason Kendall, who is having a truly wretched, awful year. If the Dodger played the A's I would refuse to print Kendall's line, it's so bad. Kendall is so bad that the distance between him and Paulino is the same as the distance between Paulino and Brian McCann. And Brian McCann is really good.
Christopher Ellis Duffy -- CF
age: 27
bats: left
0.241 -- 0.296 -- 0.348
The Pirates are a depressing team; and Duffy is a despressing player on a despressing team. Last year Duffy and Tracy butted heads in spring training when Tracy wanted Duffy to change his approach at the plate. Duffy had batted 0.341 in 2005, and in the spring of 2006 I'm sure he thought there was no way he needed to change anything. And my initial inclination is to rip into Tracy for being a arrogant meddler who thinks he knows a lot more than he does. Okay, what did Tracy want to do with him?
Tracy attempted to convert him into a conventional leadoff hitter when spring training began, and Duffy never seemed comfortable taking a lot of pitches, drawing walks or looking to bunt.
That sounds okay, mostly. But a few months into 2006, Duffy wasn't hitting, and the Pirates wanted to demote him to AAA, only Duffy refused, so he was put on the restricted list. Duffy kept in shape at home doing "baseball related activities" while on the restricted list. Finally a month later Duffy relented and accepted his demotion, and a month after that Duffy was back up with the big club and did better in his second go around with the team in 2006.
The depressing part of all of this is that all this angst and conflict wasn't really necessary. The fact is Duffy probably just isn't that good. His 0.341 average in 2005 came in only 39 games; it's not a meaningful sample. He never showed much in the minor leagues given his age in each level. Duffy isn't as good as he thinks he is, and Tracy can't mold players the way he thinks he can. If everyone had just recognized initially that Duffy is a marginal big leaguer, then the restricted list mess might have been avoided. Duffy is not a diamond in the rough like LoDuca or Gagne. He's a fourth outfielder who is starting for a bad team.
Frederick Phillip Sanchez -- 2B
age: 29
bats: right
0.285 -- 0.314 -- 0.337
Sanchez didn't walk much last year or hit for much power, but he did have a 0.344 batting average. If his batting average ever came back down to earth, he was going to turn into a below average second baseman. Sadly for the Pirates, that's what has happened.
Sanchez's line drive rate has dropped from 28% to 18% this year, while he's striking out more. That's why he's batting below 0.300 now. Last year was probably a career year, this year is probably who he'll be for the rest of his likely brief starting career. Baseball is a brutal game.
In any case, here is another hitter the Dodger pitchers should get out a lot.
David Adam LaRoche -- 1B
age: 27
bats: left
0.214 -- 0.319 -- 0.352
Will he and brother Andy on the Dodgers have only one game against each other before Andy is send down to make room for Kuo?
Adam had a terrible OPS of 0.520 in April. In May his OPS of 0.805 is much closer to his career average of 0.820. The Pirates traded their best reliever of 2006 ( Mike Gonzalez ) to get LaRoche. Without Gonzalez, the Pirate 'pen has been pretty bad. With LaRoche and his crummy April, the Pirate offense has been as bad as ever. While the trade might eventually be a net plus for the Pirates, it should help the Dodgers in this series because they won't have to face Gonzalez with the game close.
Xavier Clifford Nady -- RF
age: 28
bats: right
0.284 -- 0.319 -- 0.465
Brewers, do you want to know why no one takes you and the division you lead seriously? Here's one answer: the second place team in your division has Xavier Nady as their second best hitter.
The other reason no one takes the Brewers very seriously these days is that they're in freefall with only a +8 run differential on the season.
Jason Raymond Bay -- LF
age: 28
bats: right
0.310 -- 0.385 -- 0.517
Bay has 14 hits with 3 home runs in his last 7 games. I say he's due for a slump!
Ryan Matthew Doumit -- RF/C
age: 26
bats: switch
0.326 -- 0.390 -- 0.526
This man can do everything! Bat left, bat right, catch, play the outfield, give someone the evil eye with both eyes without even trying, ride the bench while worse players start in front of him ...
I think more teams should have a back-up catcher who also can play at other places on the field. I hate it when a roster spot is wasted on a pure backup catcher who almost never plays or pinch hits. This is one area where the Pirates have it right.
Except, wait, the Pirates are carrying a third catcher! Arrrgggghhh! Not only are they not getting it right, they're getting it horribly wrong. Why exactly is Humberto Figueroa Cota on the roster? Is is just for his glorious name? He's played in all of 5 games, all catching. Doumit has played catcher in 10 games. Why couldn't Doumit have started the 5 games Cota started, giving him more playing time and allowing the Pirates to carry another useful player?
Such waste. Doumit needs to play more, get more of a chance to show what he can do, and Cota needs to be off the roster, but with Jim Tracy involved, what are the odds of either of these things happening?
All this said, the superstitious part of me hopes the Dodgers don't see Cota in this series. In Cota's five games played this year, the only one the Pirates won was a 7-5 decision against ... the Dodgers.
And a different, unrelated, but still irrational part of me hopes Doumit doesn't play because he has the most evil eyes I've ever seen. They're like two pools of pure night!
Zachary Thomas Duke -- P
age: 24
throws: left
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.55 -- 60.0 -- 18 -- 13 -- 8
Is Duke hurt? His strikeout total is ridiculously low. Among major league pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched, Duke ranks 284 out of 287 in strikeouts per nine innings at a horrific 2.70.
Duke's K rate has been dropping ever since his K/9 was above 9 in high A at age 21. He was at 5.5 K/9 in AAA the next year, and then 6.2 K/9 after his callup to the Pirates that year. He went 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA in the last half of 2005 with the Bucs, and everyone thought he was the next big thing.
But in 2006 his K/9 was below 5, and this year it's just horrible. Combined with all the home runs Duke gives up it's amazing his ERA isn't higher than it is. The Dodgers should hammer him; they need to hammer him.
Ian Dante Snell -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.14 -- 71.2 -- 58 -- 22 -- 6
Snell has a much more impressive minor league record than Duke in the category of strikeouts per nine innings. He posted a K/9 of at least 8 at every minor league stop where he pitched at least 15 games, including AA and AAA.
I hope Kuo and the Dodger 'pen is up to the task of matching Snell.
Thomas Stephen Gorzelanny -- P
age: 24
throws: left
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.39 -- 71.2 -- 43 -- 21 -- 3
So far Gorzelanny is following the Penny model of success: he has a decent but not great K rate to go with a fantastic home run rate. In fact Penny's line is 2.06 -- 70.0 -- 43 -- 22 -- 0, almost identical to Gorzelanny's. Eerie! We'll get to see who applies this model of pitching the best on Sunday as Gorzelanny and Penny face off. It's the battle of pitchers whose names end in "nny"!
Penny is better, though. He has the superior career track record and his ground ball to fly ball ratio is 2 this year, while Gorzelanny's is just 1. Penny has a much better shot of sustaining his low home run rate than Gorzelanny does.
Paul Gurner Maholm -- P
age: 24
throws: left
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.35 -- 65.2 -- 39 -- 18 -- 12
He's Gorzelanny ( or Penny ) but with a ton of home runs given up. So, I guess if Penny ever starts giving up homers he'll turn into Paul Maholm. Kerbleh.
The Dodgers have a big advantage in the first and last games of the series, with Wolf and Lowe against Duke and Maholm. The middle two games look more like tossups, though the Dodgers do have the better offense going in each of those games unless a whole bunch of starters sit. Martin will likely rest during one of the middle games.
With a three way tie for first place entering the series and the Padres playing the Nats, the Dodgers really need to pick up the sweep here. It's in their reach. Minimum acceptable result here is 3 out of 4. Losing the series would be a complete disaster.
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