by Joshua Worley
It was a moment of electric blue, and then he crushed the ball. In those first moments after contact I just hoped it would be a double, that I wasn't fooling myself with hope over a ball that would be caught in the gap. I wasn't yet thinking about Abreu scoring: I just wanted to see the ball come down without being caught. But it didn't come down. It just kept going, until, with the same sense of unreality with which I had watched so many plays in the previous two days, I realized that the ball would never come down in the field of play. All the anguish of the last two games was washed away. It was pure joy. This time, they couldn't take it away. It was ours. We had our moment, our victory. Saenz!
rewind ...
At first I didn't notice the ocean of blue and white. I was so intent on the moment, the man at the plate, that I was missing the moment. Everyone was waving the giveaway Dodger beach towels, prompted by the diamond vision. Wave your towels, it said. Surround the field with a humming blue sea. It was slow and beautiful, unlike any towel waving display I had seen before. It was electric, hypnotic, to see it, to be inside of it, creating a small part of it. We were an ocean. No matter what Saenz did at the plate, it was a moment to remember. Saenz took a strike. The count was 0-1.
rewind ...
As soon as Abreu walked, I thought it, but I didn't dare even say it. As Saenz came up to the plate, I was cynical, ready to be disappointed. I started to say to my wife, "He's going to hit into a ... you know." Double play. We'd seen it before. But I didn't say it. It didn't feel right, to be so negative. As for the other, the dream, I barely even thought it. Now that he was actually coming up to the plate, and a man was a first, I didn't want to face the disappointment when it didn't happen. There was no way I would say it. Home run. But I did think it, in a small voice. Not even the crushing disappointment of losing two leads in the last two games would erase all of my hope. Home run ... maybe.
rewind ...
Just get on base, I thought, as I always do in that situation. Get a walk, Abreu. I favor the walk, because it's so certain. A ball hit hard can still be caught. I like the perseverance and grit of working a walk. And Abreu needed to get the walk. He hadn't been walking at all. He needed to walk for the team and himself. Give the Dodgers a runner, and give us a reason to think he might belong in the big leauges. As he worked the count, all the way to 3-2, I thought about what I would write for the blog. In spite of the small hope I had now, defeat felt inevitable. What would I write about such a disappointing game, the second in a row? I thought about writing nothing, or writing something scathing, negative. The season is over. The Dodgers can't win. They've rolled over. But no, what I would really be saying was that I can't handle it. I've rolled over. It's just one game. I thought about the positive things I could take away from the game, that I could write about. And then ball four came, inside. A man at first, because Abreu had walked! I truly hadn't expected it to happen. One more positive thing to write about. They were still fighting for the game, and I was still fighting not to lose hope over a couple of disheartening games. Abreu had walked! Just one more reason not to roll over in defeat.
rewind ...
"The Tomato!", I said to my wife, pointing to Saenz, as Abreu was about to step up to the plate. It was a comforting, reassuring sight, to see him waiting for his at-bat. It was exciting too. There is always hope when Olmedo is at the plate. Usually the best moments of his at-bats are before the at-bat, when anything is possible, when one can still dream of a home run, of a booming double, of a hapless pitcher throwing a fastball over the heart of the plate and the wolf Saenz lamb-chopping it to Pasadena. What a comfort it is to see Saenz come on-deck, to be able to dream. Even though we were about to see the Dodgers lose, things didn't seem that bad. Saenz would be coming up after Abreu. At least we got to dream.
rewind ...
The ball seemed to go through his glove. I thought he had it. I thought Abreu's dive had stopped the ball, stopped the run from scoring. For a moment it seemed that it was in his glove, just as it had seemed when Kent got his glove around the ball flared down the right field line. But it went off the glove. No! It went skidding past Abreu, down the line, as if it was a single down the line. It was a single down the line. With a sense of unreality I watched the runner come around third. It was happening again. He was scoring the go-ahead run, and the Dodgers were going to lose again. A ninth-inning lead blown again. The defense had failed them again. An elite reliever had failed them again. Why was I surprised? Why was I so disappointed? I tried to shield myself from it. I knew it would happen. I told my wife, "Gregg Zaun is going to get a hit and drive in the run." It was inevitable after Kent's misplay. Was it really? Of course not. But I said it, and it happened. One thing doesn't have anything to do with another, except to show that how divided I was, how hope and despair warred inside me. I knew the RBI hit would happen, and yet when Zaun hit the ball I thought Abreu had it. How could I think both these things?
rewind ...
Nope, I said. Not a home run. It's hit too high. He's going to catch it at the wall. Not for the first time, I was wrong. Everyone else thought it was gone, though. They were already cheering as if it would go. It did. In fact Gonzo hadn't hit it too high. Luis Gonzalez delivered a home run, a 2-run shot to turn a one run deficit into a one run lead. Six innings of frustration were washed away. The previous horrible defeat was washed away. The game was soon to be won. Fortune was reversed, finally. I thought all this, I really did. And again, I was wrong.
rewind ...
We talked about not going to the game. After that 6-5 defeat to the Padres I didn't want to even think about the Dodgers again, not for a long time. But we decided to go. It was our one year marriage anniversary. We both loved being at Dodger stadium. It was a two hour drive to get there, but it was worth it. Even when they lost, it was always worth it. And we might see Matt Kemp. I made sure not to find out the eventual starting lineup before we left for the game, because I wanted to preserve for as long as possible the chance that we might see him start. The Bison! What a gift it was, that he had been called up. Maybe he would start, or maybe he would pinch hit, and hit a come-from behind game winning home run. Anything is possible at a Dodger game. A heartbreaking defeat, or an impossible victory. There's nothing like going to Dodger Stadium. There's always the possibility for despair to be reversed, for time to stand still in a moment of electric blue.
09 June 2007
08 June 2007
Blue Jays Preview
by Joshua Worley
Screw last night's game. That's all that needs to be said. On to business.
The Blue Jays come into Dodger Stadium with a 28-31 record and 269 runs scored to 276 runs allowed. They are exactly what they appear to be: a slightly below average team.
The pitching matchups are McGowan v Penny, Marcum v Lowe, and Halladay v Schmidt.
Aaron Walter Hill -- 2B
age: 25
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.284 -- 0.351 -- 0.482
Hill has played in every game for the Blue Jays. He's a fine young player, currently with the third highest OPS among second basemen in the American League. His OPS is 39 points ahead of Jeff Kent's.
Hill has really made a leap in power this year. Currently with 26 extra base hits he's only 11 behind last year's total, so it's possible that he could come close to doubling his total of last year. He usually bats around the six spot, and the big danger is he could be in the middle of at least one run scoring rally against the Dodgers with an extra base hit if multiple hitters ahead of him are walked or otherwise let on base.
Troy Edward Glaus -- 3B
age: 30
bats: right
0.277 -- 0.387 -- 0.508
Not bad. I can see why the Dodgers might be interested in acquiring him. I don't endorse such a move, though. Glaus would be expensive in money and prospects, he's injury-prone, and the Dodgers seem to have a pretty good thing at third going right now with probably an even better option in AAA right now.
Glaus isn't as old as I thought. He strikes out too much to sustain a high batting average, maybe even one as high as what he carries now. He's only hit for an average above 0.260 once in his career, back in 2000. He might strike out 5 times in the Dodger series. He might also hit a home run or two, though Lowe and Penny should be able to keep him in the park.
Royce Spencer Clayton -- SS
age: 37
bats: right
0.240 -- 0.291 -- 0.341
I had no idea he was still in the majors! Not that he's really hitting well enough to belong. He strikes out as much as Glaus, but without the power. The bottom of the Jays lineup is not scary at all.
Alexis Israel Rios -- RF
age: 26
bats: right
0.294 -- 0.347 -- 0.536
His first name is a girl's name, while his middle name is the name of a country. Interesting.
The problem I see with the Jays lineup is that they don't have any true high OPB guys. Glaus has a high OBP, but that's likely to come down if his batting average goes back to career norms. Rios is typical of the Jays good hitters: good power, average on base skills. There is some good power up and down the line up, but how often will they score without a home run? The Blue Jays have hit 70 home runs to just 37 for the Dodgers, but the Jays have only scored 8 more runs than the Dodgers. If the Dodgers pitchers can keep the Jays in the park, they'll have a tough time scoring runs.
Vernon Wells III -- CF
age: 28
bats: right
0.259 -- 0.318 -- 0.414
What a disappointing season he's having so far. But he's never been much of a OBP guy, only two going above 0.350. The home runs are down this year. Hill, Glaus and Rios seem to be the real threats in the Jay lineup; not Wells.
The 120 million 7-year extension the Jays gave to Wells last off-season seems pretty unwise right now. At least they didn't give an expensive multi-year deal to a slap hitting mediocrity, I guess.
Adam Alan Lind -- LF
age: 23
bats: left
0.242 -- 0.287 -- 0.412
Lind was called up after Reed Johnson went down with an injured back. Johnson had a breakout year in 2006 with a 0.869 OPS, so that injury had really hurt the Jays offense. Lind just hasn't gotten it done yet. He does appear to be a pretty good prospect, having hit 24 home runs between AA and AAA last year with a decent OBP. But he's also probably a year away from really being ready for AL pitching. Or Dodger pitching.
Matthew Wade Stairs -- LF/1B
age: 39
bats: left
0.288 -- 0.368 -- 0.529
Stairs has seen limited playing time so far, mostly as a backup outfielder. But with Lyle Overbay out with a broken hand, Stairs is for the moment the regular first baseman. His stats are very nice, though they'll likely come down as he gets more playing time. He's not been this good for several years now. Now, will Stairs play at first base with the DH spot unavailable to Frank Thomas? The only way to get Thomas into the lineup will be to start him at first base instead.
Frank Edward Thomas -- DH
age: 39
bats: right
0.226 -- 0.367 -- 0.390
I've listed Thomas as a DH only for a reason. He's been a DH only this season. He's started 56 out of 59 team games this season. The three he didn't start? The three games in Philadelphia with no DH spot in the lineup. The Blue Jays just don't want to play him in the field, probably with good reason. Now back when the Philadelphia series was played, Overbay was at first base. The Jays might be more inclined to bench Stairs to get the Big Hurt into the lineup, but I doubt it. For one thing, Stairs actually has better stats than Thomas at the moment.
I'm not one of those who thinks it would be a good idea to swap the rules for interleague play, to have the DH in NL parks and pitchers hit in AL parks. No way. I don't ever want to see the abominable DH at Dodger stadium. However, I will grant that it's rather sad that the Dodger Stadium fans won't get to see Frank Thomas hit outside of a few pinch hitting opportunities. I predict Thomas will pinch hit twice in the series, with a walk and a strike out.
One sad note from looking at Frank Thomas's career stats: his career OPS has dipped below 1.000. You know there are people out there who consider Thomas a borderline hall-of-famer, or even not deserving at all?
John Joseph McDonald -- SS/3B
age: 32
bats: right
0.272 -- 0.287 -- 0.380
The man can't buy a walk. He has only two on the season; so why do I have this fear Lowe will walk him Saturday?
He may start one game of the series at short. He might even start a game at third base. That would be nice.
Jason Lloyd Phillips -- C
age: 30
bats: right
0.241 -- 0.311 -- 0.324
Phillips has logged 4 games at first base this year, but I don't think these are starts but rather late inning shifts. Nevertheless, I still find the idea of Phillips playing even an inning at first base to be horrifying.
He's been the everyday catcher while Greg Zaun is out with a thumb injury. But Zaun has already made some rehab starts in the minor leagues and may be back in the lineup sometime this weekend. We shall see. I won't mind not seeing Phillips play at all, even though he sucks. It's not as if Zaun is doing any better than him.
Gregory Owen Zaun -- C
age: 36
bats: switch
0.186 -- 0.279 -- 0.339
I remember when Zaun used to write movie reviews for the old ESPNet Sportszone site, back when he was the backup Marlins catcher to Charles Johnson ( another past Dodger catcher I'd rather forget ). It's amazing how much the ESPN website has changed since then. Back then I never thought Zaun would last this long in the league, much less become a starter as he was last year.
Dustin Michael McGowan -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.50 -- 36.0 -- 30 -- 16 -- 3
His weakness in a 2006 season split between AAA and the AL was walks, especially after his call-up that year. He started this year in the minors, but after his call-up at the start of May he seems to have made progress with limiting his walks this year, though the ERA is still rather high. His Fielding Independent Pitching is just 3.88 ( according to HardballTimes ), which for comparison's sake is about what Johan Santana's FIP is right now.
I suspect the Dodgers will hit him, though. He's not really as good as Santana.
Shaun Michael Marcum -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.06 -- 44.1 -- 47 -- 18 -- 9
He spent the first month in the 'pen, then went to the rotation. His numbers haven't been as good since he went to the rotation, and his home runs allowed are a bit alarming. He came out of his last start after 3 innings with a stiff back. We'll see if that has any effect on Saturday.
Harry Leroy Halladay -- P
age: 30
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.63 -- 68.0 -- 46 -- 10 -- 6
Halladay easily wins the coolest name contest on the Jays.
He was bombed, absolutely Tomko-ed in two starts at the beginning of May, giving up 9 and 8 runs to Texas and Boston. Then he went on the DL. Ah, so it was arm trouble that caused his blow-ups in those starts. But no, he went on the DL with appendicitis. So I don't know. His first start back he blanked the hapless White Sox, but his last start he was shelled by Tampa Bay for 8 runs. In his 7 non-awful starts he's only given up 13 runs. Halladay is either really good or he just gets obliterated. I vote for the second.
Predictions:
I predict the Dodgers will sweep. My wife Griffster won't like this one bit, as every time I make a ( usually too optimistic ) prediction the Dodgers do poorly. But I just think the Dodger pitching is better than the Jays pitching in this series, and that the team will be crackling good after being thoroughly embarrassed in San Diego. I don't say I expect the Dodgers to sweep; expectations are for Yankees fans. I'm just saying I think they can and will. There's no reason to mope after the last heartbreaking loss, either: moping is for Cubs fans. There's plenty of room for optimism with this team: there are no bad pitchers slated to start for the Dodgers as far as the eye can see. No Dodger fan need ever worry about drawing the Tomko-dud as a starter to a game they attend. They're all good! I'm happy just thinking about it. Every Dodger series is a tough pitching slate for the opposition.
Now, the Dodgers have a choice after that tough loss. Show, or roll over. I don't think they're going to roll over. I'm going to be at tonight's game. The Dodgers may not win, but they certainly will show. That's all we can ask.
Screw last night's game. That's all that needs to be said. On to business.
The Blue Jays come into Dodger Stadium with a 28-31 record and 269 runs scored to 276 runs allowed. They are exactly what they appear to be: a slightly below average team.
The pitching matchups are McGowan v Penny, Marcum v Lowe, and Halladay v Schmidt.
Aaron Walter Hill -- 2B
age: 25
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.284 -- 0.351 -- 0.482
Hill has played in every game for the Blue Jays. He's a fine young player, currently with the third highest OPS among second basemen in the American League. His OPS is 39 points ahead of Jeff Kent's.
Hill has really made a leap in power this year. Currently with 26 extra base hits he's only 11 behind last year's total, so it's possible that he could come close to doubling his total of last year. He usually bats around the six spot, and the big danger is he could be in the middle of at least one run scoring rally against the Dodgers with an extra base hit if multiple hitters ahead of him are walked or otherwise let on base.
Troy Edward Glaus -- 3B
age: 30
bats: right
0.277 -- 0.387 -- 0.508
Not bad. I can see why the Dodgers might be interested in acquiring him. I don't endorse such a move, though. Glaus would be expensive in money and prospects, he's injury-prone, and the Dodgers seem to have a pretty good thing at third going right now with probably an even better option in AAA right now.
Glaus isn't as old as I thought. He strikes out too much to sustain a high batting average, maybe even one as high as what he carries now. He's only hit for an average above 0.260 once in his career, back in 2000. He might strike out 5 times in the Dodger series. He might also hit a home run or two, though Lowe and Penny should be able to keep him in the park.
Royce Spencer Clayton -- SS
age: 37
bats: right
0.240 -- 0.291 -- 0.341
I had no idea he was still in the majors! Not that he's really hitting well enough to belong. He strikes out as much as Glaus, but without the power. The bottom of the Jays lineup is not scary at all.
Alexis Israel Rios -- RF
age: 26
bats: right
0.294 -- 0.347 -- 0.536
His first name is a girl's name, while his middle name is the name of a country. Interesting.
The problem I see with the Jays lineup is that they don't have any true high OPB guys. Glaus has a high OBP, but that's likely to come down if his batting average goes back to career norms. Rios is typical of the Jays good hitters: good power, average on base skills. There is some good power up and down the line up, but how often will they score without a home run? The Blue Jays have hit 70 home runs to just 37 for the Dodgers, but the Jays have only scored 8 more runs than the Dodgers. If the Dodgers pitchers can keep the Jays in the park, they'll have a tough time scoring runs.
Vernon Wells III -- CF
age: 28
bats: right
0.259 -- 0.318 -- 0.414
What a disappointing season he's having so far. But he's never been much of a OBP guy, only two going above 0.350. The home runs are down this year. Hill, Glaus and Rios seem to be the real threats in the Jay lineup; not Wells.
The 120 million 7-year extension the Jays gave to Wells last off-season seems pretty unwise right now. At least they didn't give an expensive multi-year deal to a slap hitting mediocrity, I guess.
Adam Alan Lind -- LF
age: 23
bats: left
0.242 -- 0.287 -- 0.412
Lind was called up after Reed Johnson went down with an injured back. Johnson had a breakout year in 2006 with a 0.869 OPS, so that injury had really hurt the Jays offense. Lind just hasn't gotten it done yet. He does appear to be a pretty good prospect, having hit 24 home runs between AA and AAA last year with a decent OBP. But he's also probably a year away from really being ready for AL pitching. Or Dodger pitching.
Matthew Wade Stairs -- LF/1B
age: 39
bats: left
0.288 -- 0.368 -- 0.529
Stairs has seen limited playing time so far, mostly as a backup outfielder. But with Lyle Overbay out with a broken hand, Stairs is for the moment the regular first baseman. His stats are very nice, though they'll likely come down as he gets more playing time. He's not been this good for several years now. Now, will Stairs play at first base with the DH spot unavailable to Frank Thomas? The only way to get Thomas into the lineup will be to start him at first base instead.
Frank Edward Thomas -- DH
age: 39
bats: right
0.226 -- 0.367 -- 0.390
I've listed Thomas as a DH only for a reason. He's been a DH only this season. He's started 56 out of 59 team games this season. The three he didn't start? The three games in Philadelphia with no DH spot in the lineup. The Blue Jays just don't want to play him in the field, probably with good reason. Now back when the Philadelphia series was played, Overbay was at first base. The Jays might be more inclined to bench Stairs to get the Big Hurt into the lineup, but I doubt it. For one thing, Stairs actually has better stats than Thomas at the moment.
I'm not one of those who thinks it would be a good idea to swap the rules for interleague play, to have the DH in NL parks and pitchers hit in AL parks. No way. I don't ever want to see the abominable DH at Dodger stadium. However, I will grant that it's rather sad that the Dodger Stadium fans won't get to see Frank Thomas hit outside of a few pinch hitting opportunities. I predict Thomas will pinch hit twice in the series, with a walk and a strike out.
One sad note from looking at Frank Thomas's career stats: his career OPS has dipped below 1.000. You know there are people out there who consider Thomas a borderline hall-of-famer, or even not deserving at all?
John Joseph McDonald -- SS/3B
age: 32
bats: right
0.272 -- 0.287 -- 0.380
The man can't buy a walk. He has only two on the season; so why do I have this fear Lowe will walk him Saturday?
He may start one game of the series at short. He might even start a game at third base. That would be nice.
Jason Lloyd Phillips -- C
age: 30
bats: right
0.241 -- 0.311 -- 0.324
Phillips has logged 4 games at first base this year, but I don't think these are starts but rather late inning shifts. Nevertheless, I still find the idea of Phillips playing even an inning at first base to be horrifying.
He's been the everyday catcher while Greg Zaun is out with a thumb injury. But Zaun has already made some rehab starts in the minor leagues and may be back in the lineup sometime this weekend. We shall see. I won't mind not seeing Phillips play at all, even though he sucks. It's not as if Zaun is doing any better than him.
Gregory Owen Zaun -- C
age: 36
bats: switch
0.186 -- 0.279 -- 0.339
I remember when Zaun used to write movie reviews for the old ESPNet Sportszone site, back when he was the backup Marlins catcher to Charles Johnson ( another past Dodger catcher I'd rather forget ). It's amazing how much the ESPN website has changed since then. Back then I never thought Zaun would last this long in the league, much less become a starter as he was last year.
Dustin Michael McGowan -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.50 -- 36.0 -- 30 -- 16 -- 3
His weakness in a 2006 season split between AAA and the AL was walks, especially after his call-up that year. He started this year in the minors, but after his call-up at the start of May he seems to have made progress with limiting his walks this year, though the ERA is still rather high. His Fielding Independent Pitching is just 3.88 ( according to HardballTimes ), which for comparison's sake is about what Johan Santana's FIP is right now.
I suspect the Dodgers will hit him, though. He's not really as good as Santana.
Shaun Michael Marcum -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.06 -- 44.1 -- 47 -- 18 -- 9
He spent the first month in the 'pen, then went to the rotation. His numbers haven't been as good since he went to the rotation, and his home runs allowed are a bit alarming. He came out of his last start after 3 innings with a stiff back. We'll see if that has any effect on Saturday.
Harry Leroy Halladay -- P
age: 30
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.63 -- 68.0 -- 46 -- 10 -- 6
Halladay easily wins the coolest name contest on the Jays.
He was bombed, absolutely Tomko-ed in two starts at the beginning of May, giving up 9 and 8 runs to Texas and Boston. Then he went on the DL. Ah, so it was arm trouble that caused his blow-ups in those starts. But no, he went on the DL with appendicitis. So I don't know. His first start back he blanked the hapless White Sox, but his last start he was shelled by Tampa Bay for 8 runs. In his 7 non-awful starts he's only given up 13 runs. Halladay is either really good or he just gets obliterated. I vote for the second.
Predictions:
I predict the Dodgers will sweep. My wife Griffster won't like this one bit, as every time I make a ( usually too optimistic ) prediction the Dodgers do poorly. But I just think the Dodger pitching is better than the Jays pitching in this series, and that the team will be crackling good after being thoroughly embarrassed in San Diego. I don't say I expect the Dodgers to sweep; expectations are for Yankees fans. I'm just saying I think they can and will. There's no reason to mope after the last heartbreaking loss, either: moping is for Cubs fans. There's plenty of room for optimism with this team: there are no bad pitchers slated to start for the Dodgers as far as the eye can see. No Dodger fan need ever worry about drawing the Tomko-dud as a starter to a game they attend. They're all good! I'm happy just thinking about it. Every Dodger series is a tough pitching slate for the opposition.
Now, the Dodgers have a choice after that tough loss. Show, or roll over. I don't think they're going to roll over. I'm going to be at tonight's game. The Dodgers may not win, but they certainly will show. That's all we can ask.
07 June 2007
The dog days of June or, .500 ahoy!
By Griffster
Okay, so here's my dire prediction: Unless one or two of the well-known unproductive pieces of the everyday Dodger lineup is switched out, or those pieces suddenly start playing out of their shoes, the Dodgers will finish the month of June with a .500 record.
Here's how they'll do it:
Current record: 34-25
Play: 1 game against the Padres today.
Result: loss.
Record: 34-26
( I mean, we're not going to beat Peavy with this lineup. Sad to say. At best we may hope for an improved performance from Kuo bolstering our hopes for the future. )
Play: three games against the Blue Jays.
Result: 1-2.
Record: 35-28
Now, on paper this series looks good for the Dodgers. We match three of our best, Penny, Lowe and Schmidt, against three pitchers from a below .500 team. The best of the bunch, number-wise, is Marcum with his 2-2 record and his 4.06 ERA, and he's up against Lowe.
In practice, though, the limp noodles that form our batting lineup will not be able to hit these guys well. Plus, Toronto plays in the AL, and they play with the BoSox. Their strength is not as bad as their record makes it seem.
Fortunately, the Dodgers play at home, but that will at most help them win a game ( make it tomorrow's, please, because I'm going to be there! )
Play: Three games against the Mets.
Result: 1-2
Record: 36-30
The Mets are rolling, and they're likely to send Hernandez ( 1.94 ERA ), Maine ( 2.81 ) and Sosa ( 3.22 ) against, probably, Wolf, Kuo and Penny ( or Lowe ). There's no escape, not even at home. I'm hoping we squeak out a win somewhere, but hey, I don't think it will happen. I'll leave the win there, though, and hope.
Play: Three games in Toronto.
Result: 0-3
Record: 36-33
Guys, it is an AL team in an AL park with artificial turf. Not a win in sight for us here. We're one for our last twenty-odd in AL parks. Just not happening.
Play: Three games at Tampa Bay.
Result: 1-2
Record: 37-35
Oh no! Another fake turf AL away series! Just because Tampa Bay is a bad team, we should be able to scratch out a win from somewhere.
Play: Four at Arizona.
Result: 2-2
Record: 39-37
This series comes at the end of a long road trip that went to the corners of the continent ( well, almost. Toronto to Tampa Bay to Arizona? Ouch. At least it will be a dry heat ). The Dodgers will be beat - by the travel schedule, the humid Tampa Bay air, the losses. Even with all of that, I sincerely hope they can split the series. Arizona have hopefully cooled off enough by then that we can pilfer two games.
Play: Two against Padres
Result: 0-2
Record: 39-39
What, we'll suddenly beat them when we couldn't before? Not if the lineup stays as weak. Padre pitching is truly dominant. Ours is just very good. And a weak lineup against dominant pitching means losses.
Okay, so those are my dire predictions for the Dodgers' near future. There's two sweeps in there, and there almost were three but I just couldn't bring myself to do it. ( Surely we'll be able to win at least one at home against the Mets? ) There's only one series tie predicted, the rest are losses.
Now, without a doubt nobody connected to the Dodgers want to see this happen. How do we avoid it?
Make. Some. Changes. Get rid of Murray and O'Donnely, or Pierre, or Nomar, or somebody else who is not pulling their weight. That'll shake everybody else up. You don't need to sweep them all out the door at once. Just get rid of one, maybe the rest will shape up. Baseball is a business, isn't it? You can only "believe" that someone will come around or start adding value for so long. Then you have to jettison the "believe in" you hold in that player, and find somebody who can actually get the job done. Playing a bad 7.5 million player just because you paid for him is bad business. You basically throw the other 99.5 million of your payroll in the water too, because that one player weakens the whole team.
I am fairly confident that my predictions will hold with the team playing at its current level. If some of the unproductive spots start producing, or if some changes are made, you can shimmy between two and four games from the loss column to the win column for this month. If, forbid, something bad happens like an injury to a productive component or somebody else slumping, you can peel off a win or two and move it to the losses. There won't be more wins lost, because there is already so few to be had. 5-13 is not going to be pretty, but that is the reality of our lineup of over-the-hill vets and the overpriced toothpick stick in center. At the very best we can hope to be around 43-38 at the end of the month ( if we really get surprising production from some of the weak spots in the lineup ) and at worst we may be 37-41.
Presumably the Padres and Diamondbacks will also be playing some tougher competition. The Padres also get Tampa Bay, and then they get Baez and the Orioles, and then the BoSox. But they have the Cubs while we have the Mets. The Snakes also get Tampa Bay, to go with the Yankees, the BoSox, and the Orioles. I don't know how the standings will shake out around us, I can only predict what I think our record will be.
Okay, so here's my dire prediction: Unless one or two of the well-known unproductive pieces of the everyday Dodger lineup is switched out, or those pieces suddenly start playing out of their shoes, the Dodgers will finish the month of June with a .500 record.
Here's how they'll do it:
Current record: 34-25
Play: 1 game against the Padres today.
Result: loss.
Record: 34-26
( I mean, we're not going to beat Peavy with this lineup. Sad to say. At best we may hope for an improved performance from Kuo bolstering our hopes for the future. )
Play: three games against the Blue Jays.
Result: 1-2.
Record: 35-28
Now, on paper this series looks good for the Dodgers. We match three of our best, Penny, Lowe and Schmidt, against three pitchers from a below .500 team. The best of the bunch, number-wise, is Marcum with his 2-2 record and his 4.06 ERA, and he's up against Lowe.
In practice, though, the limp noodles that form our batting lineup will not be able to hit these guys well. Plus, Toronto plays in the AL, and they play with the BoSox. Their strength is not as bad as their record makes it seem.
Fortunately, the Dodgers play at home, but that will at most help them win a game ( make it tomorrow's, please, because I'm going to be there! )
Play: Three games against the Mets.
Result: 1-2
Record: 36-30
The Mets are rolling, and they're likely to send Hernandez ( 1.94 ERA ), Maine ( 2.81 ) and Sosa ( 3.22 ) against, probably, Wolf, Kuo and Penny ( or Lowe ). There's no escape, not even at home. I'm hoping we squeak out a win somewhere, but hey, I don't think it will happen. I'll leave the win there, though, and hope.
Play: Three games in Toronto.
Result: 0-3
Record: 36-33
Guys, it is an AL team in an AL park with artificial turf. Not a win in sight for us here. We're one for our last twenty-odd in AL parks. Just not happening.
Play: Three games at Tampa Bay.
Result: 1-2
Record: 37-35
Oh no! Another fake turf AL away series! Just because Tampa Bay is a bad team, we should be able to scratch out a win from somewhere.
Play: Four at Arizona.
Result: 2-2
Record: 39-37
This series comes at the end of a long road trip that went to the corners of the continent ( well, almost. Toronto to Tampa Bay to Arizona? Ouch. At least it will be a dry heat ). The Dodgers will be beat - by the travel schedule, the humid Tampa Bay air, the losses. Even with all of that, I sincerely hope they can split the series. Arizona have hopefully cooled off enough by then that we can pilfer two games.
Play: Two against Padres
Result: 0-2
Record: 39-39
What, we'll suddenly beat them when we couldn't before? Not if the lineup stays as weak. Padre pitching is truly dominant. Ours is just very good. And a weak lineup against dominant pitching means losses.
Okay, so those are my dire predictions for the Dodgers' near future. There's two sweeps in there, and there almost were three but I just couldn't bring myself to do it. ( Surely we'll be able to win at least one at home against the Mets? ) There's only one series tie predicted, the rest are losses.
Now, without a doubt nobody connected to the Dodgers want to see this happen. How do we avoid it?
Make. Some. Changes. Get rid of Murray and O'Donnely, or Pierre, or Nomar, or somebody else who is not pulling their weight. That'll shake everybody else up. You don't need to sweep them all out the door at once. Just get rid of one, maybe the rest will shape up. Baseball is a business, isn't it? You can only "believe" that someone will come around or start adding value for so long. Then you have to jettison the "believe in" you hold in that player, and find somebody who can actually get the job done. Playing a bad 7.5 million player just because you paid for him is bad business. You basically throw the other 99.5 million of your payroll in the water too, because that one player weakens the whole team.
I am fairly confident that my predictions will hold with the team playing at its current level. If some of the unproductive spots start producing, or if some changes are made, you can shimmy between two and four games from the loss column to the win column for this month. If, forbid, something bad happens like an injury to a productive component or somebody else slumping, you can peel off a win or two and move it to the losses. There won't be more wins lost, because there is already so few to be had. 5-13 is not going to be pretty, but that is the reality of our lineup of over-the-hill vets and the overpriced toothpick stick in center. At the very best we can hope to be around 43-38 at the end of the month ( if we really get surprising production from some of the weak spots in the lineup ) and at worst we may be 37-41.
Presumably the Padres and Diamondbacks will also be playing some tougher competition. The Padres also get Tampa Bay, and then they get Baez and the Orioles, and then the BoSox. But they have the Cubs while we have the Mets. The Snakes also get Tampa Bay, to go with the Yankees, the BoSox, and the Orioles. I don't know how the standings will shake out around us, I can only predict what I think our record will be.
Juggling the Chairs on the Deck of a Sinking Ballclub
by Joshua Worley
From Ken Gurnick's latest dodgers.com piece: They'll need more than the 1-for-8 they got from Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal at the top of the batting order, prompting Little to concede he was "close" to shaking up the lineup.
Quote from Grady Little in the same article: "I keep having confidence that they can get it going," he said, "but at the same time, we're not in position where we repeat things that constantly aren't working for us. We may have to do some juggling."
I'm sure Little realizes the problem is Pierre, not Furcal. But I don't have any faith that "juggle" means anything more than putting Pierre down at the eight spot, which will still give him about 4 PA a game. Moving the on-base challenged Pierre down in the order might gain the Dodgers 0.04 extra baserunners per game, or about one extra baserunner every 25 games. ( I assume the following: Abreu and Pierre flip; Pierre will have about a 0.300 OBP moving forward, 0.350 for Abreu, and that the leadoff hitter gets an extra PA over the 8 hitter 7/9 of the time. If Abreu moves to the second spot and Furcal slides to leadoff it's much the same. )
I fear that if the Dodgers lose to Peavy tonight they won't see first place again this season.
From Ken Gurnick's latest dodgers.com piece: They'll need more than the 1-for-8 they got from Juan Pierre and Rafael Furcal at the top of the batting order, prompting Little to concede he was "close" to shaking up the lineup.
Quote from Grady Little in the same article: "I keep having confidence that they can get it going," he said, "but at the same time, we're not in position where we repeat things that constantly aren't working for us. We may have to do some juggling."
I'm sure Little realizes the problem is Pierre, not Furcal. But I don't have any faith that "juggle" means anything more than putting Pierre down at the eight spot, which will still give him about 4 PA a game. Moving the on-base challenged Pierre down in the order might gain the Dodgers 0.04 extra baserunners per game, or about one extra baserunner every 25 games. ( I assume the following: Abreu and Pierre flip; Pierre will have about a 0.300 OBP moving forward, 0.350 for Abreu, and that the leadoff hitter gets an extra PA over the 8 hitter 7/9 of the time. If Abreu moves to the second spot and Furcal slides to leadoff it's much the same. )
I fear that if the Dodgers lose to Peavy tonight they won't see first place again this season.
06 June 2007
Looking Deeper
by Joshua Worley
I've been pondering the middling win-loss record of the San Diego bullpen a lot the last day, especially since the Padres won the first game of the series with the Dodgers. The Dodger 'pen gave up one run in two innings with a tie score and got the loss. Yes, the Dodger 'pen failed from the perspective that allowing even one run would doom the game, but it's not realistic to expect perfection every game from any 'pen. That the Dodger 'pen took the loss has more to do with how the offense played then how the 'pen pitched.
The Padre 'pen is 9-10 now, but how many of those losses were instances where the 'pen really, truly failed, and how many were results of a single run given up in a tie game?
Here's a summary of all ten Padre 'pen losses:
inherited score -- runs allowed -- innings pitched -- loser
tie -- 3 -- 5.0 -- Thompson
+2 -- 3 -- 1.2 -- Hoffman
+2 -- 4 -- 2.2 -- Hoffman
tie -- 1 -- 12.0 -- Hampson
+1 -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Linebrink
+1 -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Bell
+1 -- 2 -- 2.2 -- Meredith
tie -- 1 -- 4.0 -- Bell
tie -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Meredith
tie -- 1 -- 2.1 -- Meredith
The third and fourth 'pen losses were courtesy of the Dodgers. That fourth game was the 17 inning Dodger victory, and surely can't be called a 'pen failure for the Padres by any stretch. I would characterize only the 5 'pen losses when a lead was blown as a failure for the 'pen. And as it happens these are the only five games this year in which the Padre 'pen has given up a lead handed them by a starter. None of the 9 Padre 'pen wins have been "vultured", whereby the 'pen blows a lead and then gathers the win for themselves when the offense pulls the team back ahead. The Padre starters have handed 30 leads to the Padre 'pen, and the 'pen has blown just 5 of those leads.
I said in the last entry's title that the Padre 'pen was "sneaky bad", but that's just not true. I think they've just been a bit unlucky, and also the late-inning offense hasn't been so hot. The thing the Dodgers have to worry about is that if the Padres start getting a win-loss record from their 'pen more in line with how well it's pitched, then the Padres will easily pull far into first place, especially if the teams' current run differentials are an indicator of future play.
Here are the current run differentials:
team -- RS -- RA -- Diff
SD -- 246 -- 183 -- +63
LA -- 254 -- 228 -- +26
There's one thing about this, though. The Dodger pitching staff that allowed 228 runs in the first 58 games isn't the same staff that will be pitching in the next 58 games. Tomko and Hendrickson are out of the rotation, safely buried in mop-up roles in the 'pen. Schmidt is back and apparently healthy. I'm going to make an optimistic adjustment to the Dodger's runs allowed number to better reflect how they'll do going forward. Tomko, Hendrickson, and pre-injury Schmidt pitched 96.1 innings as starters and gave up 70 runs. I'm going to replace those innings with post-injury Schmidt and Kuo and optimistically assume a combined 3.5 ERA from them. Add in a few extra unearned runs, and you get just 40 runs allowed in the same 96.1 innings. Now those two should be pitching more than 96 innings over the next 60 games, but that will just replace a few back-end bullpen innings, which I'll call a wash. So by replacing the bad starters with good starters, the Dodgers might allow 30 fewer runs over the next 58 games.
Adjusted run differentials:
team -- RS -- RA -- Diff
SD -- 246 -- 183 -- +63
LA -- 254 -- 198 -- +56
So, there are a lot of caveats to this analysis. I called it optimistic for a reason. Kuo and Schmidt might not pitch as well as a 3.5 ERA. One or both might get hurt again. The other Dodger pitchers might do worse than they did in the last 58 games, especially Penny. The Padres may also improve on their run differential, something I haven't considered here.
However, barring injury there will be a real and important improvement to the Dodgers in the next 58 games and beyond. It might not be a 30 run improvement, but that's certianly not unrealistic. There's even a small chance the improvement could be by more than 30 runs over the next 58 games. In spite of this most recent frustrating loss and the Padres clear advantage in run differential, there is reason for hope.
Now if only Pierre could be replaced.
I've been pondering the middling win-loss record of the San Diego bullpen a lot the last day, especially since the Padres won the first game of the series with the Dodgers. The Dodger 'pen gave up one run in two innings with a tie score and got the loss. Yes, the Dodger 'pen failed from the perspective that allowing even one run would doom the game, but it's not realistic to expect perfection every game from any 'pen. That the Dodger 'pen took the loss has more to do with how the offense played then how the 'pen pitched.
The Padre 'pen is 9-10 now, but how many of those losses were instances where the 'pen really, truly failed, and how many were results of a single run given up in a tie game?
Here's a summary of all ten Padre 'pen losses:
inherited score -- runs allowed -- innings pitched -- loser
tie -- 3 -- 5.0 -- Thompson
+2 -- 3 -- 1.2 -- Hoffman
+2 -- 4 -- 2.2 -- Hoffman
tie -- 1 -- 12.0 -- Hampson
+1 -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Linebrink
+1 -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Bell
+1 -- 2 -- 2.2 -- Meredith
tie -- 1 -- 4.0 -- Bell
tie -- 2 -- 2.0 -- Meredith
tie -- 1 -- 2.1 -- Meredith
The third and fourth 'pen losses were courtesy of the Dodgers. That fourth game was the 17 inning Dodger victory, and surely can't be called a 'pen failure for the Padres by any stretch. I would characterize only the 5 'pen losses when a lead was blown as a failure for the 'pen. And as it happens these are the only five games this year in which the Padre 'pen has given up a lead handed them by a starter. None of the 9 Padre 'pen wins have been "vultured", whereby the 'pen blows a lead and then gathers the win for themselves when the offense pulls the team back ahead. The Padre starters have handed 30 leads to the Padre 'pen, and the 'pen has blown just 5 of those leads.
I said in the last entry's title that the Padre 'pen was "sneaky bad", but that's just not true. I think they've just been a bit unlucky, and also the late-inning offense hasn't been so hot. The thing the Dodgers have to worry about is that if the Padres start getting a win-loss record from their 'pen more in line with how well it's pitched, then the Padres will easily pull far into first place, especially if the teams' current run differentials are an indicator of future play.
Here are the current run differentials:
team -- RS -- RA -- Diff
SD -- 246 -- 183 -- +63
LA -- 254 -- 228 -- +26
There's one thing about this, though. The Dodger pitching staff that allowed 228 runs in the first 58 games isn't the same staff that will be pitching in the next 58 games. Tomko and Hendrickson are out of the rotation, safely buried in mop-up roles in the 'pen. Schmidt is back and apparently healthy. I'm going to make an optimistic adjustment to the Dodger's runs allowed number to better reflect how they'll do going forward. Tomko, Hendrickson, and pre-injury Schmidt pitched 96.1 innings as starters and gave up 70 runs. I'm going to replace those innings with post-injury Schmidt and Kuo and optimistically assume a combined 3.5 ERA from them. Add in a few extra unearned runs, and you get just 40 runs allowed in the same 96.1 innings. Now those two should be pitching more than 96 innings over the next 60 games, but that will just replace a few back-end bullpen innings, which I'll call a wash. So by replacing the bad starters with good starters, the Dodgers might allow 30 fewer runs over the next 58 games.
Adjusted run differentials:
team -- RS -- RA -- Diff
SD -- 246 -- 183 -- +63
LA -- 254 -- 198 -- +56
So, there are a lot of caveats to this analysis. I called it optimistic for a reason. Kuo and Schmidt might not pitch as well as a 3.5 ERA. One or both might get hurt again. The other Dodger pitchers might do worse than they did in the last 58 games, especially Penny. The Padres may also improve on their run differential, something I haven't considered here.
However, barring injury there will be a real and important improvement to the Dodgers in the next 58 games and beyond. It might not be a 30 run improvement, but that's certianly not unrealistic. There's even a small chance the improvement could be by more than 30 runs over the next 58 games. In spite of this most recent frustrating loss and the Padres clear advantage in run differential, there is reason for hope.
Now if only Pierre could be replaced.
05 June 2007
Padres Preview: A Sneaky Bad 'Pen
by Joshua Worley
The Padres are 33-23, with a terrific 245-183 run differential. The Dodgers are a half game up on the Padres, but if the win-loss records of the two teams were in line with their runs scored and allowed, the Padres would be 4.5 games up on the Dodgers. That's a five game swing from theory to reality. Thank goodness the Dodgers have been magically scrappy, able to bend reality to their will ... so far. But why have the Padres underperformed their run differential?
The Padres have a great bullpen that has also been a surprising weakness. Their 'pen has a terrific 2.18 ERA, best in the NL. They also have a record of 8-10. I know win-loss records aren't a good way to evaluate pitchers, or even an entire staff. But there is no getting away from the fact that TEN times this year the Padre relievers have turned a tie or lead into an eventual loss. Of the Padres 9 losses since April, SIX of them have gone to bullpen pitchers. Part of the blame for this can surely go to the late-inning offense of the Padres, but the 'pen must bear a lot of blame as well for failing in crucial situations. Not all 'pen innings are created equally. When it really counts, the Padre 'pen has often come up short.
The Dodger 'pen may have an ERA a full run higher at 3.2, but their record is 10-3, thanks in part to magically clutch late-inning offense, but also thanks to great pitching with the game on the line. Maybe the Padres 'pen will stop losing so many games over the rest of the year, and maybe the Dodgers 'pen will start losing more. Just by the numbers the Padres would be a good bet to have the better 'pen over the last four months of the season. But so far the Dodger 'pen has been better when it really counts, and has given the Dodgers a half game lead in the standings.
Before the Dodgers get into the Padres 'pen, they have to deal with their fearsome starting pitching. The Padres send their three best against the Dodger's current three worst, though the Dodger's worst might be pretty good now that Hendrickson and Tomko are exiled. The matchups are Schmidt v Young, Wolf v Maddux, and Kuo v Peavy. Schmidt is coming off injury and Kuo is just begining to start in the NL again, so it's impossible to know what to expect from them. They could be great, or they could be hammered. It doesn't seem likely they can go for more than five or six innings, though, so the Dodger 'pen will be tested in this series. Saito likely won't pitch in the series, so the burden on Broxton, Billingsley and Seanez will be even heavier. If we see Tomko or Hendrickson the game is likely already lost.
Kevin Kouzmanoff -- 3B
age: 25
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.205 -- 0.273 -- 0.363
Back in April, I wrote:
He's never hit in the big leagues yet, in all of 112 at bats. I presume he's better than his 0.238 OBP, but let's not have him start showing it against a couple of crappy Dodger pitchers, please.
He didn't start showing he was a better hitter against the Dodgers in that series, as he went 1-11 with no walks and 4 strikeouts. But he did start showing he's a better hitter in the latter half of May, after being benched several times during the first few weeks of May.
April -- 0.113 -- 0.171 -- 0.183
May -- 0.303 -- 0.375 -- 0.576
Is that even the same player? The Dodger pitchers better approach him as if it isn't. Kouz is clearly no longer the automatic out he once was, though it's far too soon to say that he's going to go on to a successful year. But an important part of the Padres nice record of 18-9 in May was Kouzmanoff's surge.
Adrian Gonzalez -- 1B
age: 25
bats: left
0.302 -- 0.369 -- 0.538
I hate the Rangers. I'm glad they're miserably mired in the muck of last place. Why did they have to just give away Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez to the Padres? Freaking miscreants. What a horrible trade that was, especially for the Dodgers. I'm sick of American League teams basically giving the Padres good young players for free.
Michael Terrance Cameron -- CF
age: 34
bats: right
0.239 -- 0.307 -- 0.390
Here's another Padre who had a great May after an awful April:
April -- 0.192 -- 0.267 -- 0.240
May -- 0.288 -- 0.357 -- 0.548
The rest of his year will likely be more like May than April, though without nearly so much power. Cameron was scratched from Sunday's lineup with a sore hamstring, though he did pinch hit. I'm guessing he'll be ready to go tonight.
Marcus William Giles -- 2B
age: 29
bats: right
0.278 -- 0.349 -- 0.382
Bucking the typical Padre trend, Giles had a bad May with a 0.626 OPS. The Padres Giles attack has been much diminished, with Marcus' struggles and Brian still on the DL with a right knee bone bruise. Brian is eligible to come off the DL for today's opener, but he isn't close to being ready to play yet.
Marcus has been batting leadoff lately. The Dodger absolutely have to keep this slumping player off the bases ahead of Adrian Gonzalez.
Terrmel Sledge -- LF
age: 30
bats: left
0.234 -- 0.348 -- 0.387
He's the regular left fielder now that Brian Giles is on the DL. Sledge was the third player the Padres got from the Rangers along with Young and Gonzalez in that awful trade. Sledge strikes out too much. He also doesn't hit lefties much, so Paul Michael McAnulty and his 0.529 OPS in 31 PA might get the start against Kuo or Wolf. The Padres are very thin in the outfield because of injuries right now, though, so Sledge might have to play against the lefties anyway. I'm not sure what else to say about Terrmel, except that he has a better OPS than Nomar Garciaparra.
Khalil Thabit Greene -- SS
age: 27
bats: right
0.221 -- 0.258 -- 0.428
More than half of his base hits go for extra bases. The problem with this is that he just doesn't get enough hits. He's especially bad at home, where he has a 0.161 batting average. If all goes well Greene will be an escape hatch from tough innings or another easy cog in a 1-2-3 inning for Dodger pitchers. If he ends up with more than one extra base hit in the series, then the Dodgers will have lost their chance to take advantage of his light hitting.
Joshua David Bard -- C
age: 29
bats: switch
0.264 -- 0.333 -- 0.372
Bard was suspended for three games after an altercation with umpires over a home run call, but he'll play against the Dodgers while the suspension is appealed. He's really had trouble at Petco this year. Outside of a few players, the Padre lineup isn't that tough, especially at Petco. The Dodgers and their middling offense have scored more than the Padres: it's the pitching that is the Padres true strength. It should be noted that given park effects, the Padres probably do have a slightly better offense than the Dodgers.
Jose Luis Cruz Jr -- RF
age: 33
bats: switch
0.274 -- 0.348 -- 0.459
Cruz has missed the last three games with back spasms, though he's supposed to be able to return for tonight's game. If he can't, McAnulty or Bocachica will be forced into action. The Padres are really short on outfielders right now, which is why they had to acquire Dodgerama favorite Hiram Bocachica in the first place.
As Cruz's playing time in May has gone up his stats have gotten worse, down to a 0.585 OPS in May. Cruz is a nice fourth outfielder to have around but he's not really an everyday starter.
Hiram Gabriel Bocachica -- OF
age: 31
bats: right
0.077 -- 0.138 -- 0.308
While in Oakland, Hiram had one home run and two walks in 20 plate appearances. The home run was his only hit. Hiram was designated for assignment after Bradley came off the DL, and the Padres grabbed him. With San Diego he's hit one home run with no walks in 9 plate appearances. Again, the home run is his only hit. He's like the second coming of Dave Kingman! I hope he starts all three games in the series against the Dodgers and adds to his out total.
Christopher Ryan Young -- P
age: 28
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.42 -- 67.0 -- 60 -- 26 -- 3
Young is a fly ball pitcher who isn't giving up home runs. Last year he gave up 28 in about 180 innings, while he's on pace to only give up 9 this year. I have a feeling Russ Martin may have something to say about his ridiculously low HR rate.
Young is the real deal, though. The last time he gave up more than 2 runs in a game was April. He gave up only 5 runs in all of May. Peavy was the NL pitcher of the month for May, but it just as easily could have been Young.
Young's worst start of the year came against the Dodgers, when they chased him after 2 innings while scoring 5 runs. It was the 5 walks allowed that really undid him against the Dodgers that day; the Dodgers have to be patient, work the count and foul off pitches to be successful against him again. With Nomar and Kent in the lineup, that may be hard.
Gregory Alan Maddux -- P
age: 41
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.92 -- 66.2 -- 41 -- 9 -- 4
What a treat it was to have Maddux pitch for the Dodgers, even if for only two months. I'm not upset that the Dodgers didn't sign him, not at all, but I am a bit sad that it just wasn't meant to be.
There will be lots of balls put into play when Maddux pitches, and the Dodgers fortunes will be determined by how many hits fall in. Maddux strikes out a decent but not great number of batters, and walks almost no one. The Wednesday night game will be one time when first pitch hitting by guys like Kent and Nomar might be the way to go, since working the count likely won't yield anything. But Maddux is so smart --- surely he knows guys like Kent and Nomar will be hacking early, and not give them anything to hit early in the count.
Even though Maddux doesn't walk people, the Dodgers should still try to work deep into the count to get his pitch count above 70 or so, after which he is no longer as effective. Or they might try hacking in the first inning, when Maddux often struggles. Early or late, that's the time to get Maddux.
Jacob Edward Peavy -- P
age: 26
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
1.68 -- 80.1 -- 92 -- 21 -- 1
All hail the master! The Dodger's only hope Thursday might be for Mariano Duncan to get into Peavy's head again.
Peavy gave up just 4 runs in May; he beat his teammate Young by one run allowed and so won the pitcher of the month award. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.4 this year, the most skewed toward grounders it's ever been.
Kuo has to be perfect against Peavy on Thursday night. The good news is that Kuo only has to match Peavy for a single game, not a whole year. Anything can happen in one game.
Predictions:
At this point I'm just hoping the Dodgers aren't swept, and to see Kuo and Schmidt pitch well. My only prediction about the series is that it will be very good to hear Vinny calling the games again. Truly, all hail the master.
The Padres are 33-23, with a terrific 245-183 run differential. The Dodgers are a half game up on the Padres, but if the win-loss records of the two teams were in line with their runs scored and allowed, the Padres would be 4.5 games up on the Dodgers. That's a five game swing from theory to reality. Thank goodness the Dodgers have been magically scrappy, able to bend reality to their will ... so far. But why have the Padres underperformed their run differential?
The Padres have a great bullpen that has also been a surprising weakness. Their 'pen has a terrific 2.18 ERA, best in the NL. They also have a record of 8-10. I know win-loss records aren't a good way to evaluate pitchers, or even an entire staff. But there is no getting away from the fact that TEN times this year the Padre relievers have turned a tie or lead into an eventual loss. Of the Padres 9 losses since April, SIX of them have gone to bullpen pitchers. Part of the blame for this can surely go to the late-inning offense of the Padres, but the 'pen must bear a lot of blame as well for failing in crucial situations. Not all 'pen innings are created equally. When it really counts, the Padre 'pen has often come up short.
The Dodger 'pen may have an ERA a full run higher at 3.2, but their record is 10-3, thanks in part to magically clutch late-inning offense, but also thanks to great pitching with the game on the line. Maybe the Padres 'pen will stop losing so many games over the rest of the year, and maybe the Dodgers 'pen will start losing more. Just by the numbers the Padres would be a good bet to have the better 'pen over the last four months of the season. But so far the Dodger 'pen has been better when it really counts, and has given the Dodgers a half game lead in the standings.
Before the Dodgers get into the Padres 'pen, they have to deal with their fearsome starting pitching. The Padres send their three best against the Dodger's current three worst, though the Dodger's worst might be pretty good now that Hendrickson and Tomko are exiled. The matchups are Schmidt v Young, Wolf v Maddux, and Kuo v Peavy. Schmidt is coming off injury and Kuo is just begining to start in the NL again, so it's impossible to know what to expect from them. They could be great, or they could be hammered. It doesn't seem likely they can go for more than five or six innings, though, so the Dodger 'pen will be tested in this series. Saito likely won't pitch in the series, so the burden on Broxton, Billingsley and Seanez will be even heavier. If we see Tomko or Hendrickson the game is likely already lost.
Kevin Kouzmanoff -- 3B
age: 25
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.205 -- 0.273 -- 0.363
Back in April, I wrote:
He's never hit in the big leagues yet, in all of 112 at bats. I presume he's better than his 0.238 OBP, but let's not have him start showing it against a couple of crappy Dodger pitchers, please.
He didn't start showing he was a better hitter against the Dodgers in that series, as he went 1-11 with no walks and 4 strikeouts. But he did start showing he's a better hitter in the latter half of May, after being benched several times during the first few weeks of May.
April -- 0.113 -- 0.171 -- 0.183
May -- 0.303 -- 0.375 -- 0.576
Is that even the same player? The Dodger pitchers better approach him as if it isn't. Kouz is clearly no longer the automatic out he once was, though it's far too soon to say that he's going to go on to a successful year. But an important part of the Padres nice record of 18-9 in May was Kouzmanoff's surge.
Adrian Gonzalez -- 1B
age: 25
bats: left
0.302 -- 0.369 -- 0.538
I hate the Rangers. I'm glad they're miserably mired in the muck of last place. Why did they have to just give away Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez to the Padres? Freaking miscreants. What a horrible trade that was, especially for the Dodgers. I'm sick of American League teams basically giving the Padres good young players for free.
Michael Terrance Cameron -- CF
age: 34
bats: right
0.239 -- 0.307 -- 0.390
Here's another Padre who had a great May after an awful April:
April -- 0.192 -- 0.267 -- 0.240
May -- 0.288 -- 0.357 -- 0.548
The rest of his year will likely be more like May than April, though without nearly so much power. Cameron was scratched from Sunday's lineup with a sore hamstring, though he did pinch hit. I'm guessing he'll be ready to go tonight.
Marcus William Giles -- 2B
age: 29
bats: right
0.278 -- 0.349 -- 0.382
Bucking the typical Padre trend, Giles had a bad May with a 0.626 OPS. The Padres Giles attack has been much diminished, with Marcus' struggles and Brian still on the DL with a right knee bone bruise. Brian is eligible to come off the DL for today's opener, but he isn't close to being ready to play yet.
Marcus has been batting leadoff lately. The Dodger absolutely have to keep this slumping player off the bases ahead of Adrian Gonzalez.
Terrmel Sledge -- LF
age: 30
bats: left
0.234 -- 0.348 -- 0.387
He's the regular left fielder now that Brian Giles is on the DL. Sledge was the third player the Padres got from the Rangers along with Young and Gonzalez in that awful trade. Sledge strikes out too much. He also doesn't hit lefties much, so Paul Michael McAnulty and his 0.529 OPS in 31 PA might get the start against Kuo or Wolf. The Padres are very thin in the outfield because of injuries right now, though, so Sledge might have to play against the lefties anyway. I'm not sure what else to say about Terrmel, except that he has a better OPS than Nomar Garciaparra.
Khalil Thabit Greene -- SS
age: 27
bats: right
0.221 -- 0.258 -- 0.428
More than half of his base hits go for extra bases. The problem with this is that he just doesn't get enough hits. He's especially bad at home, where he has a 0.161 batting average. If all goes well Greene will be an escape hatch from tough innings or another easy cog in a 1-2-3 inning for Dodger pitchers. If he ends up with more than one extra base hit in the series, then the Dodgers will have lost their chance to take advantage of his light hitting.
Joshua David Bard -- C
age: 29
bats: switch
0.264 -- 0.333 -- 0.372
Bard was suspended for three games after an altercation with umpires over a home run call, but he'll play against the Dodgers while the suspension is appealed. He's really had trouble at Petco this year. Outside of a few players, the Padre lineup isn't that tough, especially at Petco. The Dodgers and their middling offense have scored more than the Padres: it's the pitching that is the Padres true strength. It should be noted that given park effects, the Padres probably do have a slightly better offense than the Dodgers.
Jose Luis Cruz Jr -- RF
age: 33
bats: switch
0.274 -- 0.348 -- 0.459
Cruz has missed the last three games with back spasms, though he's supposed to be able to return for tonight's game. If he can't, McAnulty or Bocachica will be forced into action. The Padres are really short on outfielders right now, which is why they had to acquire Dodgerama favorite Hiram Bocachica in the first place.
As Cruz's playing time in May has gone up his stats have gotten worse, down to a 0.585 OPS in May. Cruz is a nice fourth outfielder to have around but he's not really an everyday starter.
Hiram Gabriel Bocachica -- OF
age: 31
bats: right
0.077 -- 0.138 -- 0.308
While in Oakland, Hiram had one home run and two walks in 20 plate appearances. The home run was his only hit. Hiram was designated for assignment after Bradley came off the DL, and the Padres grabbed him. With San Diego he's hit one home run with no walks in 9 plate appearances. Again, the home run is his only hit. He's like the second coming of Dave Kingman! I hope he starts all three games in the series against the Dodgers and adds to his out total.
Christopher Ryan Young -- P
age: 28
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.42 -- 67.0 -- 60 -- 26 -- 3
Young is a fly ball pitcher who isn't giving up home runs. Last year he gave up 28 in about 180 innings, while he's on pace to only give up 9 this year. I have a feeling Russ Martin may have something to say about his ridiculously low HR rate.
Young is the real deal, though. The last time he gave up more than 2 runs in a game was April. He gave up only 5 runs in all of May. Peavy was the NL pitcher of the month for May, but it just as easily could have been Young.
Young's worst start of the year came against the Dodgers, when they chased him after 2 innings while scoring 5 runs. It was the 5 walks allowed that really undid him against the Dodgers that day; the Dodgers have to be patient, work the count and foul off pitches to be successful against him again. With Nomar and Kent in the lineup, that may be hard.
Gregory Alan Maddux -- P
age: 41
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.92 -- 66.2 -- 41 -- 9 -- 4
What a treat it was to have Maddux pitch for the Dodgers, even if for only two months. I'm not upset that the Dodgers didn't sign him, not at all, but I am a bit sad that it just wasn't meant to be.
There will be lots of balls put into play when Maddux pitches, and the Dodgers fortunes will be determined by how many hits fall in. Maddux strikes out a decent but not great number of batters, and walks almost no one. The Wednesday night game will be one time when first pitch hitting by guys like Kent and Nomar might be the way to go, since working the count likely won't yield anything. But Maddux is so smart --- surely he knows guys like Kent and Nomar will be hacking early, and not give them anything to hit early in the count.
Even though Maddux doesn't walk people, the Dodgers should still try to work deep into the count to get his pitch count above 70 or so, after which he is no longer as effective. Or they might try hacking in the first inning, when Maddux often struggles. Early or late, that's the time to get Maddux.
Jacob Edward Peavy -- P
age: 26
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
1.68 -- 80.1 -- 92 -- 21 -- 1
All hail the master! The Dodger's only hope Thursday might be for Mariano Duncan to get into Peavy's head again.
Peavy gave up just 4 runs in May; he beat his teammate Young by one run allowed and so won the pitcher of the month award. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.4 this year, the most skewed toward grounders it's ever been.
Kuo has to be perfect against Peavy on Thursday night. The good news is that Kuo only has to match Peavy for a single game, not a whole year. Anything can happen in one game.
Predictions:
At this point I'm just hoping the Dodgers aren't swept, and to see Kuo and Schmidt pitch well. My only prediction about the series is that it will be very good to hear Vinny calling the games again. Truly, all hail the master.
04 June 2007
The First Place Series
by Joshua Worley
The three Dodger wins in the Pirate series are the kinds of games the Dodgers will have to win to be a first place team. Some teams are first place teams because they outscore their opposition by plenty. Those teams are the elite teams. Other teams are first place teams because they outscore their opposition by a decent amount and do really well in close games. Those teams are magically scrappy. The Dodgers are magically scrappy. Seriously, this isn't meant as a put-down of them. All kudos to them for pulling it off so far. It's a fun way to be in first place. It's also a dangerous way to be in first place, because it's not certain that they can keep it up. Now a GM should think that it won't keep up. A fan doesn't have to think that way, though.
Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, New York (N), Los Angeles of Anaheim and San Diego have all outscored their opponents by plenty, and all are in first place or in the wild card position. They are the elite teams. Below these 6 elite teams are 7 teams who have outscored their opponents from anywhere between 35 and 15 runs. That range of run differential a third of the way into the season is a hit or miss sort of thing. You're just as likely to have a losing record as you are to be in first place with this kind of run differential. Here are all the teams that have outscored their opposition by between 15 and 35 runs:
34 - 23 --- Los Angeles
34 - 24 --- Arizona
29 - 27 --- Oakland
28 - 27 --- Minnesota
27 - 29 --- San Francisco
24 - 31 --- Chicago (N)
24 - 31 --- New York (A)
Having a decent run differential could get you in first place, or it earn you a place as one of the season's massive disappointments. There are five teams in this group, more than half, who are well out of a playoff spot right now. There's no room for error when you don't outscore your opponents by that much.
The three Dodger wins in the Pirate series are the kinds of games the Dodgers will have to win to be a first place team. Some teams are first place teams because they outscore their opposition by plenty. Those teams are the elite teams. Other teams are first place teams because they outscore their opposition by a decent amount and do really well in close games. Those teams are magically scrappy. The Dodgers are magically scrappy. Seriously, this isn't meant as a put-down of them. All kudos to them for pulling it off so far. It's a fun way to be in first place. It's also a dangerous way to be in first place, because it's not certain that they can keep it up. Now a GM should think that it won't keep up. A fan doesn't have to think that way, though.
Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, New York (N), Los Angeles of Anaheim and San Diego have all outscored their opponents by plenty, and all are in first place or in the wild card position. They are the elite teams. Below these 6 elite teams are 7 teams who have outscored their opponents from anywhere between 35 and 15 runs. That range of run differential a third of the way into the season is a hit or miss sort of thing. You're just as likely to have a losing record as you are to be in first place with this kind of run differential. Here are all the teams that have outscored their opposition by between 15 and 35 runs:
34 - 23 --- Los Angeles
34 - 24 --- Arizona
29 - 27 --- Oakland
28 - 27 --- Minnesota
27 - 29 --- San Francisco
24 - 31 --- Chicago (N)
24 - 31 --- New York (A)
Having a decent run differential could get you in first place, or it earn you a place as one of the season's massive disappointments. There are five teams in this group, more than half, who are well out of a playoff spot right now. There's no room for error when you don't outscore your opponents by that much.
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