by Joshua Worley
To paraphrase the cartoon show G.I. Joe, being called up is half the battle. But it's not the whole battle. Being called up doesn't help without playing time.
I don't doubt that Loney will get at least one or two starts a week. But he needs more playing time than that, a lot more. When Loney was called up, he got two starts right away. That was the easy part, though. Nomar hadn't had a day off in ages, so it was easy to give him a few days off in a row and for no trouble to come of it. But now ... will Grady have the guts to give Nomar several days off a week to give Loney the playing time he needs? Since his two starts, Loney has been on the bench for three straight games, getting two pinch hitting opportunities. He has 10 plate appearances in 6 days since his callup. He's getting the start today, and will likely see 4 plate appearances today, putting him at 14 in 7 days. That's barely acceptable for a young player.
Pinch hitting is fine, as far as it goes. Each plate appearance counts. But it doesn't substitute for a start. If Loney gets three starts and three pinch hitting opportunities per week I think he would be near the bare minimum of playing time needed for a young player. But I fear he'll be very lucky to even get that much playing time. One of the big questions concerning the Dodgers over the next few months is how much playing time Loney will really get. I'm going to keep track of this closely, and come up with a short-hand rating to keep track of how well or poorly they do.
If a prospect gets 8 or fewer plate appearances in a week then he's being treated as a bench player and certainly isn't getting the in-game batting practice he needs to develop. So 8 or fewer a week is an F. 9-12 PA in a week for a prospect is a D. It's not enough, but not complete neglect. 13-16 is barely acceptable, so it's a C. 17-20 PA in a week for a young player is good, regular playing time, so it's a B. More than 20 PA is excellent, for an A.
So I'll be grading Dodger management in the weeks to come on how much playing time each young player gets, treating a week as Friday to Thursday. I'll knock off on PA from the grading scale for each team off day in a week. The point of this is to have a simple way of seeing how well managment has treated each prospect weeks or months from now.
I'll keep track of Loney, Kemp, Ethier, Abreu, and Betemit. Ethier and Betemit aren't really "prospects" anymore, but they do need playing time to develop as hitters. Abreu really isn't ready for the majors yet, I think, but he needs playing time where ever he is. It wouldn't be possible for managment to get an A for all of these players, unless Pierre, Nomar and Kent were all rested a great deal, which isn't going to happen. These five players are basically fighting over 2.5 slots, and right now Kemp and I think Betemit have the upper hand.
These are the ranges I expect management to come in at regarding each prospect's playing time:
Kemp: B or A
Loney: D or C
Ethier: F or D
Betemit: C or B
Abreu: ??
I really hope they treat Loney better than my prediction for him. If Loney gets the start tomorrow as well I'll be more encouraged.
16 June 2007
15 June 2007
Angels Preview: Now Better Than the Dodgers
by Joshua Worley
In my preview of the last series between these two teams, I said that the Angels and the Dodgers were just like each other, except that the Dodgers had a better announcer. And this was true, at the time. Both teams were winning with mostly great pitching and an offense that struggled to be average. Well, a month later the same description still applies to the Dodgers, though I think the pitching is better now and the offense may be on its way to getting better with the infusion of Bison and other freed prospects. But the Angels have already seen an improvement in the offense since that series. Maybe it even began with that series where the Angels scored 19 runs and swept the hapless Dodgers.
The improvement to the Angel offense has been led by hot hitting from Figgins, Cabrera, and Kotchman, with Guerrero brilliant as always. They are 42-25, first in the AL west, just percentage points behind Boston for best record in the majors. They've scored 337 runs and allowed 278 runs, which is very good, though not quite as good as their record.
The Dodgers see the same three Angel pitchers they saw in the sweep, while the Angels will see only one repeat pitcher ( Lowe ). Will seeing a pitcher the second time around give the offense an advantage? I doubt it, but it might be a small factor. The pitching matchups are Santana v Lowe, Weaver v Schmidt, and Escobar v Wolf. I'd say the Dodgers are big favorites in the first game, and the Angels are slight favorites in the next two.
Vladamir Alvino Guerrero -- RF
age: 31
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.335 -- 0.435 -- 0.574
Vlad is still walking at a rate higher than any previous season, making him an even more productive hitter than he already was. Last year he had 25 non-intentional walks in 156 games; this year he has 22 non-intentional walks in just 64 games. Last time the Dodgers faced the Angels, Vlad had an OPS of 1.125, so he's cooled off a bit, but he's still a top five MVP candidate in the AL. The Dodgers don't have any hitter close to his production. The Dodgers as a team have received 14 intentional walks ( all by Andy LaRoche to hear some tell it ) while Vlad by himself has received 18 intentional passes.
Vlad went 3-11 with a walk and a double in his previous series against the Dodgers, and yet even with that rather modest production the Angels scored 19 runs on their way to a lopsided sweep. Even when facing a team with a hitter as good as Vlad, it's never about stopping or containing just one guy.
Casey John Kotchman -- 1B
age: 24
bats: left
0.330 -- 0.408 -- 0.555
In the last Angel series, when Kotchman had an OPS of 0.731, I wrote: He has Snakes' prospect disease! An aged 24 can't miss prospect struggling to start the 2007 campaign, just like the big four of Arizona.
Wow, he's improved. I hope the Snakes prospects don't all turn it around like Kotchman has, or they might leave the Dodgers and San Diego in the dust. No wonder the Angels suddenly have the most wins in baseball!
It would be nice if the Angels rested Kotchman and played Hillenbrand at first base instead, as they did in a recent game in St. Louis. There is a small chance that this might happen against Randy Wolf, because Kotchman has some awful platoon splits. No longer regular DH Shea Hillenbrand actually has a higher OPS against lefties than Kotchman does. ( 0.648 to 0.643 )
I think Lowe and Wolf will hold him to one or two singles, maybe a walk, while Schmidt could well be lit up by Kotchman.
Orlando Luis Cabrera -- SS
age: 32
bats: right
0.337 -- 0.381 -- 0.452
Cabrera has never hit more than 0.300 in his career, and yet two and a half months into the season, here he is well above that mark. He doesn't walk much or hit many home runs, but he does churn out the doubles and singles, just like the Angels as a team. And just like the Angels as a team, he's been really hot for the last month. So far it's working for them.
Gary Nathaniel Matthews Jr. -- CF
age: 32
bats: switch
0.282 -- 0.340 -- 0.452
Matthews seems to be settling in toward the 0.750 OPS level, which is still better than what the Dodgers get from their expensive free agent center fielder. Cabrera and Matthews flank Guerrero in the Angel lineup, and I think they're the two players the Dodgers really need to keep quiet. Vlad is too talented and too able to hit a pitch thrown anywhere around the plate for the plan to be to stop him. Better to isolate him in the lineup by always getting the guys flanking him out. Easier said than done.
But I don't think Wolf or Lowe should have that much trouble with him if they're on their games. It's Schmidt, again, who seems the most vulnerable to me.
Desmond DeChone Figgins -- 3B
age: 29
bats: switch
0.264 -- 0.314 -- 0.338
Not very good numbers, but infinitely better than the last time the Dodgers saw him when his OPS was 0.349. He's done so well that he's been moved back into the leadoff spot of the lineup.
In June Figgins isn't walking or striking out much at all. He's just hitting the ball hard, for a 0.444 average. I don't see any reason for this hot streak to continue against the Dodgers. Then again, there isn't any reason why it won't, either.
Once he does get on base, Figgins is a threat to steal, with 13 and only 2 caught. I guess the nightmare way for the Dodgers to open these games is for Figgins to single, following by a stolen base on which Martin throws into center field, sending Figgins to third. I don't want to see that happen once in this series.
Howard Joseph Kendrick III -- 2B
age: 23
bats: right
0.270 -- 0.310 -- 0.410
Last time these teams played Kendrick was still injured and Erick Aybar was the second baseman, but Kendrick has taken over. He just had an off day on Wednesday, so he may play the entire series.
Kendrick is on an 8 games hitting streak, which has brought his line up to a semi-decent level. He had a great April before getting injured, then had an awful May after coming back from the injury, and now seems to be getting back to being a decent hitter in June.
Reggie Gene Willits -- LF
age: 26
bats: switch
0.323 -- 0.419 -- 0.377
Willits has started to revert to his likely true level of ablity in June. He was dropped to the eight spot in the lineup when Figgins was moved to lead-off. Without the DH the Angels have a lineup crunch, with either Willits or Garret Anderson being the odd man out. In the Angels previous six NL stadium games, Anderson and Willits have each started three.
I will be really annoyed if the Dodgers let him on base a bunch of times, because I don't think he's that good, and because he's 15 of 17 in stolen bases.
Garret Joseph Anderson -- LF
age: 34
bats: left
0.272 -- 0.273 -- 0.424
Anderson has been battling a strained hip flexor the last week, which may have been a factor in him splitting time with Willits. I don't know, though. Comparing their stats I'd rather go with Willits more often, injury to Anderson or no. I know I just got done saying that I don't think Willits is really that good, but he has hit well and does know how to take a walk at least. Anderson has a mere one walk this season!
Michael Anthony Napoli -- C
age: 25
bats: right
0.253 -- 0.347 -- 0.473
Napoli is the anti-Angel, with a low batting average but a lot of walks and home runs to make up for it. Backup Jose Molina has a higher batting average by a few points, but doesn't walk or hit home runs. Any game that Molina starts is good news for the Dodgers.
Ervin Ramon Santana -- P
age: 24
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.26 -- 77.0 -- 61 -- 29 -- 16
The million dollar question with Santana: does pitching at Dodger Stadium count as pitching on the road?
Technically, the answer is yes, of course. But will whatever road factor that screws with Ervin's head or mechanics or whatever that produces such insane home/road splits be present when he pitches at Dodger Stadium?
The answer to this question appears to be yes. The "road factor" is present at Dodger stadium for Santana, if his previous start there when he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings is anything to go on.
Santana is such a fascinating player. Has there been anyone as extreme in their home/road splits in the history of baseball, for really no good reason? I mean, Mel Ott hit a ton of his homers at home, but that was explicable, since the Polo grounds had really short fences down the lines. It's not as if Angel stadium is a pitchers park of renown, is it? Santana has made a quality start in all six of his home starts this year. He has just two quality starts in his seven road starts, both of the bare minimum kind with 6 innings pitched and 3 runs given up. His more usual road start is to give up more runs than innings pitched. 13 of his 16 home runs allowed have been on the road. 18 of his 29 walks have been on the road. Only his strikeout rate seems to stay the same no matter where he pitches, oddly.
Santana's last road start was one of the quality ones, against the Cardinals. We'll see if he can string two together at Dodger Stadium tonight. With Lowe pitching, this is a game the Dodgers really ought to win.
Jered David Weaver -- P
age: 24
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.14 -- 58.2 -- 48 -- 23 -- 7
Last time I wrote about Weaver, I mentioned he was a fly ball pitcher and hoped that Saenz and Betemit would start at DH and third. This time I hope that Betemit and Kemp get the starts. Throw in Kuo as a pinch hitter maybe, too!
Weaver left his last start in the third inning with lower back tightness. Now when they say lower back, do they mean lower back or is that a euphemism for tightness in the buttocks, or reverse-groin, if you will? The little blurb I read on espn.com also mentions that he needs to keep his hammies stretched out to avoid re-aggravating the injury. Pierre and Furcal ought to try bunting on him, see if they can mess with his hammies. Baseball is a vicious game.
Last time Weaver pitched against the Dodgers he was coming into the game with a great last four starts. This time, only one of his past four starts has been good. The Dodgers will need to score on him a lot if Schimdt falters, though.
Kelvim Jose Escobar -- P
age: 30
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.89 -- 81.0 -- 66 -- 23 -- 3
You know, Escobar's home/road splits aren't so hot either, though he's not the road disaster that Santana is. Actually, he's not much of anything on the road, since he's only had three starts away from Anaheim! Gosh, would it have been that hard for the Angels to figure this out before the season and swap Escobar and Santana in the rotation? I know it's hard to plan out rotations that far in advance, and I know players shouldn't really be coddled, but still it's a sensible maximization of resources given what they know about Santana.
I don't think anything should be read into Escobar's home/road splits, since he pitched great in two of the starts and had his worst outing of the year in the other. Against the Dodgers he had second best start of the year, an eight inning, three hit, no run masterpiece. But this is a different Dodger team then the one he faced. I hope that means a different result.
In my preview of the last series between these two teams, I said that the Angels and the Dodgers were just like each other, except that the Dodgers had a better announcer. And this was true, at the time. Both teams were winning with mostly great pitching and an offense that struggled to be average. Well, a month later the same description still applies to the Dodgers, though I think the pitching is better now and the offense may be on its way to getting better with the infusion of Bison and other freed prospects. But the Angels have already seen an improvement in the offense since that series. Maybe it even began with that series where the Angels scored 19 runs and swept the hapless Dodgers.
The improvement to the Angel offense has been led by hot hitting from Figgins, Cabrera, and Kotchman, with Guerrero brilliant as always. They are 42-25, first in the AL west, just percentage points behind Boston for best record in the majors. They've scored 337 runs and allowed 278 runs, which is very good, though not quite as good as their record.
The Dodgers see the same three Angel pitchers they saw in the sweep, while the Angels will see only one repeat pitcher ( Lowe ). Will seeing a pitcher the second time around give the offense an advantage? I doubt it, but it might be a small factor. The pitching matchups are Santana v Lowe, Weaver v Schmidt, and Escobar v Wolf. I'd say the Dodgers are big favorites in the first game, and the Angels are slight favorites in the next two.
Vladamir Alvino Guerrero -- RF
age: 31
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.335 -- 0.435 -- 0.574
Vlad is still walking at a rate higher than any previous season, making him an even more productive hitter than he already was. Last year he had 25 non-intentional walks in 156 games; this year he has 22 non-intentional walks in just 64 games. Last time the Dodgers faced the Angels, Vlad had an OPS of 1.125, so he's cooled off a bit, but he's still a top five MVP candidate in the AL. The Dodgers don't have any hitter close to his production. The Dodgers as a team have received 14 intentional walks ( all by Andy LaRoche to hear some tell it ) while Vlad by himself has received 18 intentional passes.
Vlad went 3-11 with a walk and a double in his previous series against the Dodgers, and yet even with that rather modest production the Angels scored 19 runs on their way to a lopsided sweep. Even when facing a team with a hitter as good as Vlad, it's never about stopping or containing just one guy.
Casey John Kotchman -- 1B
age: 24
bats: left
0.330 -- 0.408 -- 0.555
In the last Angel series, when Kotchman had an OPS of 0.731, I wrote: He has Snakes' prospect disease! An aged 24 can't miss prospect struggling to start the 2007 campaign, just like the big four of Arizona.
Wow, he's improved. I hope the Snakes prospects don't all turn it around like Kotchman has, or they might leave the Dodgers and San Diego in the dust. No wonder the Angels suddenly have the most wins in baseball!
It would be nice if the Angels rested Kotchman and played Hillenbrand at first base instead, as they did in a recent game in St. Louis. There is a small chance that this might happen against Randy Wolf, because Kotchman has some awful platoon splits. No longer regular DH Shea Hillenbrand actually has a higher OPS against lefties than Kotchman does. ( 0.648 to 0.643 )
I think Lowe and Wolf will hold him to one or two singles, maybe a walk, while Schmidt could well be lit up by Kotchman.
Orlando Luis Cabrera -- SS
age: 32
bats: right
0.337 -- 0.381 -- 0.452
Cabrera has never hit more than 0.300 in his career, and yet two and a half months into the season, here he is well above that mark. He doesn't walk much or hit many home runs, but he does churn out the doubles and singles, just like the Angels as a team. And just like the Angels as a team, he's been really hot for the last month. So far it's working for them.
Gary Nathaniel Matthews Jr. -- CF
age: 32
bats: switch
0.282 -- 0.340 -- 0.452
Matthews seems to be settling in toward the 0.750 OPS level, which is still better than what the Dodgers get from their expensive free agent center fielder. Cabrera and Matthews flank Guerrero in the Angel lineup, and I think they're the two players the Dodgers really need to keep quiet. Vlad is too talented and too able to hit a pitch thrown anywhere around the plate for the plan to be to stop him. Better to isolate him in the lineup by always getting the guys flanking him out. Easier said than done.
But I don't think Wolf or Lowe should have that much trouble with him if they're on their games. It's Schmidt, again, who seems the most vulnerable to me.
Desmond DeChone Figgins -- 3B
age: 29
bats: switch
0.264 -- 0.314 -- 0.338
Not very good numbers, but infinitely better than the last time the Dodgers saw him when his OPS was 0.349. He's done so well that he's been moved back into the leadoff spot of the lineup.
In June Figgins isn't walking or striking out much at all. He's just hitting the ball hard, for a 0.444 average. I don't see any reason for this hot streak to continue against the Dodgers. Then again, there isn't any reason why it won't, either.
Once he does get on base, Figgins is a threat to steal, with 13 and only 2 caught. I guess the nightmare way for the Dodgers to open these games is for Figgins to single, following by a stolen base on which Martin throws into center field, sending Figgins to third. I don't want to see that happen once in this series.
Howard Joseph Kendrick III -- 2B
age: 23
bats: right
0.270 -- 0.310 -- 0.410
Last time these teams played Kendrick was still injured and Erick Aybar was the second baseman, but Kendrick has taken over. He just had an off day on Wednesday, so he may play the entire series.
Kendrick is on an 8 games hitting streak, which has brought his line up to a semi-decent level. He had a great April before getting injured, then had an awful May after coming back from the injury, and now seems to be getting back to being a decent hitter in June.
Reggie Gene Willits -- LF
age: 26
bats: switch
0.323 -- 0.419 -- 0.377
Willits has started to revert to his likely true level of ablity in June. He was dropped to the eight spot in the lineup when Figgins was moved to lead-off. Without the DH the Angels have a lineup crunch, with either Willits or Garret Anderson being the odd man out. In the Angels previous six NL stadium games, Anderson and Willits have each started three.
I will be really annoyed if the Dodgers let him on base a bunch of times, because I don't think he's that good, and because he's 15 of 17 in stolen bases.
Garret Joseph Anderson -- LF
age: 34
bats: left
0.272 -- 0.273 -- 0.424
Anderson has been battling a strained hip flexor the last week, which may have been a factor in him splitting time with Willits. I don't know, though. Comparing their stats I'd rather go with Willits more often, injury to Anderson or no. I know I just got done saying that I don't think Willits is really that good, but he has hit well and does know how to take a walk at least. Anderson has a mere one walk this season!
Michael Anthony Napoli -- C
age: 25
bats: right
0.253 -- 0.347 -- 0.473
Napoli is the anti-Angel, with a low batting average but a lot of walks and home runs to make up for it. Backup Jose Molina has a higher batting average by a few points, but doesn't walk or hit home runs. Any game that Molina starts is good news for the Dodgers.
Ervin Ramon Santana -- P
age: 24
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.26 -- 77.0 -- 61 -- 29 -- 16
The million dollar question with Santana: does pitching at Dodger Stadium count as pitching on the road?
Technically, the answer is yes, of course. But will whatever road factor that screws with Ervin's head or mechanics or whatever that produces such insane home/road splits be present when he pitches at Dodger Stadium?
The answer to this question appears to be yes. The "road factor" is present at Dodger stadium for Santana, if his previous start there when he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings is anything to go on.
Santana is such a fascinating player. Has there been anyone as extreme in their home/road splits in the history of baseball, for really no good reason? I mean, Mel Ott hit a ton of his homers at home, but that was explicable, since the Polo grounds had really short fences down the lines. It's not as if Angel stadium is a pitchers park of renown, is it? Santana has made a quality start in all six of his home starts this year. He has just two quality starts in his seven road starts, both of the bare minimum kind with 6 innings pitched and 3 runs given up. His more usual road start is to give up more runs than innings pitched. 13 of his 16 home runs allowed have been on the road. 18 of his 29 walks have been on the road. Only his strikeout rate seems to stay the same no matter where he pitches, oddly.
Santana's last road start was one of the quality ones, against the Cardinals. We'll see if he can string two together at Dodger Stadium tonight. With Lowe pitching, this is a game the Dodgers really ought to win.
Jered David Weaver -- P
age: 24
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.14 -- 58.2 -- 48 -- 23 -- 7
Last time I wrote about Weaver, I mentioned he was a fly ball pitcher and hoped that Saenz and Betemit would start at DH and third. This time I hope that Betemit and Kemp get the starts. Throw in Kuo as a pinch hitter maybe, too!
Weaver left his last start in the third inning with lower back tightness. Now when they say lower back, do they mean lower back or is that a euphemism for tightness in the buttocks, or reverse-groin, if you will? The little blurb I read on espn.com also mentions that he needs to keep his hammies stretched out to avoid re-aggravating the injury. Pierre and Furcal ought to try bunting on him, see if they can mess with his hammies. Baseball is a vicious game.
Last time Weaver pitched against the Dodgers he was coming into the game with a great last four starts. This time, only one of his past four starts has been good. The Dodgers will need to score on him a lot if Schimdt falters, though.
Kelvim Jose Escobar -- P
age: 30
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.89 -- 81.0 -- 66 -- 23 -- 3
You know, Escobar's home/road splits aren't so hot either, though he's not the road disaster that Santana is. Actually, he's not much of anything on the road, since he's only had three starts away from Anaheim! Gosh, would it have been that hard for the Angels to figure this out before the season and swap Escobar and Santana in the rotation? I know it's hard to plan out rotations that far in advance, and I know players shouldn't really be coddled, but still it's a sensible maximization of resources given what they know about Santana.
I don't think anything should be read into Escobar's home/road splits, since he pitched great in two of the starts and had his worst outing of the year in the other. Against the Dodgers he had second best start of the year, an eight inning, three hit, no run masterpiece. But this is a different Dodger team then the one he faced. I hope that means a different result.
13 June 2007
Turning Points
by Joshua Worley
A week ago the Dodgerama preview of the Padre series ( the one the Friars swept ) was linked to by the Padres blog Gaslamp Ball. That was the entry where I said the Padre 'pen was "sneaky bad" because of all their losses, which wasn't quite fair, and I said so in the next entry I wrote.
What's happened since I wrote my entries about the Padre 'pen and their penchant for losses? Well, of course the Dodgers were swept in that series. In fact it was the Dodger 'pen that crumbled to lose that last game, so I guess that was some sort of horrible Padre karmic justice in payment for me calling their 'pen "bad". Now, to be clear about that last horrible game, I put most of the blame for that loss on the right side of the infield, not the 'pen, though there's no doubt Broxton could have pitched better. Okay, but what's happened since that fateful game?
It seems to be in our nature to view human endeavors from the story perspective, as fully realized dramas with developed plot movements and characters with story arcs. When people talk about turning points and momentum in a baseball game or a baseball season, they are looking at it from the story perspective. When people talk about a player being clutch, they usually aren't looking at the numbers, but rather talking as if that player was a resilient character in a story. David Eckstein is clutch not because of any numbers, but because he's just like a brave little hobbit smiting orcs way more athletic than him.
From the story perspective, the Padres should have been energized by their great impossible comeback, and done well in their next stretch of games. Instead, they have lost four in a row in depressing fashion, given away nearly all the ground they gained by sweeping the Dodgers, and fallen back into a virtual three way tie for first place.
On Friday against the Mariners the Padres came back to tie the game at 5 from a 0-5 deficit, only to see Cla Meredith lose the game in the 11th. On Saturday the Padres failed to hammer Jeff Weaver to the full extent advisable and eventually the bullpen lost a 5-3 lead over three innings with Doug Brocail the loser. On Sunday Chris Young couldn't hold a 3-1 lead, and then Hoffman couldn't conserve a 3-3 tie and he got the loss. Then on Monday the Padre 'pen ( and Adrian Gonzalez's first base defense ) really kerploded, allowing 7 runs ( 1 earned ) capped off by a grand slam, with Meredith again getting the loss.
That's 4 losses in a row, 4 bullpen losses, since the Padres had their great, stirring comeback win against the Dodgers. The excellent Padre 'pen continues to pile up losses, some their fault, some the fault of a weak late inning offense. How could this happen to the Padres after their late inning offense delivered that turning point sweep against the Dodgers? What happened to that momentum?
There just ain't no such thing as momentum, not in such a strong form. There is very little intangible, story-style carryover, aside from injuries, from one game to the next, and yet most of us talk as if there is. We talk about teams playing well or not playing well, as if there was something to this momentum thing. I talk this way, and honestly I will continue to talk this way, even after acknowleging here that it's mostly bunk. It's just a hard perspective to get away from, and in some ways it's more fun to have this perspective, if only we don't take it too seriously.
One might surmise the Mets lost the first two games of their series to the Dodgers because they aren't playing well. But entering the series the Dodgers weren't playing well either. Why has it been the Mets who crumbled? Well, the Dodgers stirring comeback win over the Jays might have been a sort of turning point for them, but then they lost the next to games. Turning points can only be defined well after the fact, when a story can be built up around the known facts.
The real turning points in the Dodger season will not be games but be decisions about which players to use. And the momentum from these turning points will be felt in diluted form, spread out through the rest of the season. No one player can carry a team to a winning streak, not even a call-up. Nevertheless the promotion of Kuo to the starting rotation was a turning point for the Dodgers. The recall of Loney and Kemp were turning points. The momentum from these turning points had some effect on the Dodgers winning the first two games against the Mets, but it wasn't the entire story of those games, nor did it make those wins inevitable.
Betemit was also a part of last night's win. The man has a line of 0.212 -- 0.357 -- 0.444 with a batting average that's likely to only get better. Tony Abreu has a line of 0.262 -- 0.279 -- 0.400, with a batting average that's not likely to improve. Betemit has Abreu beat in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and he's at an age where he's more likely to hit better than Abreu at the big league level anyway. Isn't all that worth at least half of the starts at third base? Betemit at third, believe it or not, might be another small turning point in the Dodger season. The decision awaits.
A week ago the Dodgerama preview of the Padre series ( the one the Friars swept ) was linked to by the Padres blog Gaslamp Ball. That was the entry where I said the Padre 'pen was "sneaky bad" because of all their losses, which wasn't quite fair, and I said so in the next entry I wrote.
What's happened since I wrote my entries about the Padre 'pen and their penchant for losses? Well, of course the Dodgers were swept in that series. In fact it was the Dodger 'pen that crumbled to lose that last game, so I guess that was some sort of horrible Padre karmic justice in payment for me calling their 'pen "bad". Now, to be clear about that last horrible game, I put most of the blame for that loss on the right side of the infield, not the 'pen, though there's no doubt Broxton could have pitched better. Okay, but what's happened since that fateful game?
It seems to be in our nature to view human endeavors from the story perspective, as fully realized dramas with developed plot movements and characters with story arcs. When people talk about turning points and momentum in a baseball game or a baseball season, they are looking at it from the story perspective. When people talk about a player being clutch, they usually aren't looking at the numbers, but rather talking as if that player was a resilient character in a story. David Eckstein is clutch not because of any numbers, but because he's just like a brave little hobbit smiting orcs way more athletic than him.
From the story perspective, the Padres should have been energized by their great impossible comeback, and done well in their next stretch of games. Instead, they have lost four in a row in depressing fashion, given away nearly all the ground they gained by sweeping the Dodgers, and fallen back into a virtual three way tie for first place.
On Friday against the Mariners the Padres came back to tie the game at 5 from a 0-5 deficit, only to see Cla Meredith lose the game in the 11th. On Saturday the Padres failed to hammer Jeff Weaver to the full extent advisable and eventually the bullpen lost a 5-3 lead over three innings with Doug Brocail the loser. On Sunday Chris Young couldn't hold a 3-1 lead, and then Hoffman couldn't conserve a 3-3 tie and he got the loss. Then on Monday the Padre 'pen ( and Adrian Gonzalez's first base defense ) really kerploded, allowing 7 runs ( 1 earned ) capped off by a grand slam, with Meredith again getting the loss.
That's 4 losses in a row, 4 bullpen losses, since the Padres had their great, stirring comeback win against the Dodgers. The excellent Padre 'pen continues to pile up losses, some their fault, some the fault of a weak late inning offense. How could this happen to the Padres after their late inning offense delivered that turning point sweep against the Dodgers? What happened to that momentum?
There just ain't no such thing as momentum, not in such a strong form. There is very little intangible, story-style carryover, aside from injuries, from one game to the next, and yet most of us talk as if there is. We talk about teams playing well or not playing well, as if there was something to this momentum thing. I talk this way, and honestly I will continue to talk this way, even after acknowleging here that it's mostly bunk. It's just a hard perspective to get away from, and in some ways it's more fun to have this perspective, if only we don't take it too seriously.
One might surmise the Mets lost the first two games of their series to the Dodgers because they aren't playing well. But entering the series the Dodgers weren't playing well either. Why has it been the Mets who crumbled? Well, the Dodgers stirring comeback win over the Jays might have been a sort of turning point for them, but then they lost the next to games. Turning points can only be defined well after the fact, when a story can be built up around the known facts.
The real turning points in the Dodger season will not be games but be decisions about which players to use. And the momentum from these turning points will be felt in diluted form, spread out through the rest of the season. No one player can carry a team to a winning streak, not even a call-up. Nevertheless the promotion of Kuo to the starting rotation was a turning point for the Dodgers. The recall of Loney and Kemp were turning points. The momentum from these turning points had some effect on the Dodgers winning the first two games against the Mets, but it wasn't the entire story of those games, nor did it make those wins inevitable.
Betemit was also a part of last night's win. The man has a line of 0.212 -- 0.357 -- 0.444 with a batting average that's likely to only get better. Tony Abreu has a line of 0.262 -- 0.279 -- 0.400, with a batting average that's not likely to improve. Betemit has Abreu beat in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and he's at an age where he's more likely to hit better than Abreu at the big league level anyway. Isn't all that worth at least half of the starts at third base? Betemit at third, believe it or not, might be another small turning point in the Dodger season. The decision awaits.
12 June 2007
Recall Roll Call
by Joshua Worley
I'm amazed and delighted that Kemp and Loney were both recalled to the Dodgers this month. I don't take a strictly rational approach to this. Practical questions of playing time or major league readiness don't influence my initial reaction to these call-ups. The likely performances of Kemp and Loney are better in the imagination than they ever will in the field.
It's the potential that I'm hooked on. The unknown. Kemp's going to hit a home run every 12 at bats and Loney's going to bat 0.350. Sure they will. I know they won't, but deep down I don't, because I still get irrationally excited when I see them bat. The reality of their true talent levels hasn't yet hardened inside of me, dampening my expectations, because they've been absent. I haven't seen them play, and so they I'm free to imagine how they would play. Oh, there are minor league stats that might contradict my imaginings, but I'm not seeing any of that for myself. It's just numbers on a page, not real. I can see Pierre popping up or weakly grounding every pitch he can reach. I can see Nomar struggling to reach the warning track with his fly balls. Those players have been revealed to me, and there's no room to imagine them playing much better. I want known mediocrity replaced with unknown potential. Loney! The Bison! There is, at this moment, no limit to how good they could be. I haven't learned better yet.
Reality. There is a limit on how good Kemp and Loney could be, and we will learn this over the next year or so. Much of it can already be learned by looking at how they performed in the minor leagues. It isn't fair to say that they will be better than Pierre and Nomar. However, as bad as those two vets have been, I think it is fair to say the youngsters almost certainly won't be worse, and they could be better. I think it's likely they will be better. I believe it does make sense to steal playing time from those particular vets and give it to the kids.
More Reality. How much playing time will Kemp and Loney steal? That is what it is, a theft. Pierre and Nomar must feel this playing time is theirs by right and contract. I think most veteran players feel this way. I think, more importantly, management feels this way. The entire baseball establishment has been conditioned to feel this way. Even as Grady Little and Ned Colletti prepare to give Kemp and Loney more playing time, they must be feeling the pressure of tradition and propriety to let Nomar and Pierre play as much as they are accustomed to playing, to give them as long as possible to break out of their supposed slumps. Propriety! It is improper to just take away a man's customary job and give it to an untested stripling. There are powerful emotions associated with the principle of tenure in many walks of life. But in baseball, there is an opposite pressure on management that may often trump the pressure of tenure. It is the pressure to win, and it is why Kemp and Loney are on the Dodgers now.
James Anthony Loney
age: 23
bats: left
MLB: 2 games, 2-8, double, no walks
AAA: 0.279 -- 0.345 -- 0.382
Loney hit 0.380 last year at AAA. Why the sudden decline this year? Was it just disappointment at being left down at AAA? Was he pressing to play even better?
In 2006, Loney in AAA had a line drive rate of 25% on all balls in play, and struck out in 9% of his at bats. In 2007, Loney in AAA declined to a 21% line drive rate and struck out in 20% of his at bats. That's a huge jump in his strikeouts. Maybe he was pressing. In my opinion it's the most likely explanation. His natural talent ( and some luck ) that he displayed weren't good enough to earn him a job in 2007, so he strove to do more than he could in his second tour of AAA, and the strikeouts were the result.
How much will Loney play? He might play a little bit in the outfield, but it's already rather crowded out there, especially if Pierre still gets the bulk of time in center and Kemp is forced to battle Ethier for left field. I can't imagine Loney playing left field more than once a week.
So most of his playing time will have to come at the expense of Nomar. Nomar has already sat two games in a row, and it might become three tonight. So there clearly is a willingness to bench Nomar for extended periods, though it's going to get harder and Nomar will likely complain about it more as the weeks go on. It's one thing to give him an extended rest after two solid months of him starting, but to keep benching him for several days a week will invite trouble and controversy.
Loney needs to play at least half the time. Really it should be at least two thirds of the time, but that will likely be impossible, at least at first. But I don't think management would have recalled Loney if they didn't intend to give him regular playing time. I'm going to say he'll get it. He'll start at least half of the team's games over the next month. And if Nomar complains, he can ask for a trade. This is the reason his no-trade clause doesn't matter. If you want to make Loney the starting first baseman, then you just do it. Unless Nomar is willing to accept a backup role, then his no-trade clause will magically disappear. The error would be in thinking that Nomar has to be traded before Loney can become the regular first baseman. Now Loney is not yet the regular first baseman, but things are heading in that direction. From here performance will tell the tale.
Matthew Ryan Kemp
age: 22
bats: right
MLB: 9 games -- 0.381 -- 0.391 -- 0.429
AAA: 0.329 -- 0.374 -- 0.540
How often will Kemp play center and steal Juan Pierre's playing time? Not as much as Loney steals Nomar's playing time, I imagine.
Kemp too needs to play at the very least half the time. So far he's only played in 1 of 4 games, though I'm guessing he'll get the start tonight and tomorrow night. I don't think management is convinced he can play center field regularly. But with Brady Clark gone, he will have to play center field when Pierre is not in there, unless Ethier is tabbed instead.
Luis Gonzalez is playing rather well, so he shouldn't get more than a game every two weeks off. Pierre seems entrenched in center by default, so it seems that Kemp and Ethier will battle for playing time, with Loney in the mix occasionally as well. Ethier figures to be the odd man out here, which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world at this point. He's just not getting it done right now. But I hope Kemp will also see some starts in center as well.
Etanislao Toni Abreu
age: 22
bats: switch
MLB: 19 games -- 0.262 -- 0.279 -- 0.400
AAA: 0.347 -- 0.397 -- 0.503
Abreu is beginning to show his unreadiness. He is no longer quite as exciting and unknown. His limitations are becoming defined.
Back when LaRoche was demoted, I asked what would happen when the hits stopped coming, when the walk-challenged Abreu had a 1-12 stretch. Would he still get on base 4 times as LaRoche could? In his last three games, Abreu is 1-13, with no walks. Abreu is no LaRoche.
Abreu has 9 doubles. I've seen his whack the ball all around the field plenty of times. Just not often enough. It doesn't seem that he's ready yet. It's a shame, because he's being given as much playing time as he wants. Maybe that's the problem. When a young player isn't ready, playing time eventually turns into a curse.
I hope playing time isn't a curse for Loney and Kemp.
I'm amazed and delighted that Kemp and Loney were both recalled to the Dodgers this month. I don't take a strictly rational approach to this. Practical questions of playing time or major league readiness don't influence my initial reaction to these call-ups. The likely performances of Kemp and Loney are better in the imagination than they ever will in the field.
It's the potential that I'm hooked on. The unknown. Kemp's going to hit a home run every 12 at bats and Loney's going to bat 0.350. Sure they will. I know they won't, but deep down I don't, because I still get irrationally excited when I see them bat. The reality of their true talent levels hasn't yet hardened inside of me, dampening my expectations, because they've been absent. I haven't seen them play, and so they I'm free to imagine how they would play. Oh, there are minor league stats that might contradict my imaginings, but I'm not seeing any of that for myself. It's just numbers on a page, not real. I can see Pierre popping up or weakly grounding every pitch he can reach. I can see Nomar struggling to reach the warning track with his fly balls. Those players have been revealed to me, and there's no room to imagine them playing much better. I want known mediocrity replaced with unknown potential. Loney! The Bison! There is, at this moment, no limit to how good they could be. I haven't learned better yet.
Reality. There is a limit on how good Kemp and Loney could be, and we will learn this over the next year or so. Much of it can already be learned by looking at how they performed in the minor leagues. It isn't fair to say that they will be better than Pierre and Nomar. However, as bad as those two vets have been, I think it is fair to say the youngsters almost certainly won't be worse, and they could be better. I think it's likely they will be better. I believe it does make sense to steal playing time from those particular vets and give it to the kids.
More Reality. How much playing time will Kemp and Loney steal? That is what it is, a theft. Pierre and Nomar must feel this playing time is theirs by right and contract. I think most veteran players feel this way. I think, more importantly, management feels this way. The entire baseball establishment has been conditioned to feel this way. Even as Grady Little and Ned Colletti prepare to give Kemp and Loney more playing time, they must be feeling the pressure of tradition and propriety to let Nomar and Pierre play as much as they are accustomed to playing, to give them as long as possible to break out of their supposed slumps. Propriety! It is improper to just take away a man's customary job and give it to an untested stripling. There are powerful emotions associated with the principle of tenure in many walks of life. But in baseball, there is an opposite pressure on management that may often trump the pressure of tenure. It is the pressure to win, and it is why Kemp and Loney are on the Dodgers now.
James Anthony Loney
age: 23
bats: left
MLB: 2 games, 2-8, double, no walks
AAA: 0.279 -- 0.345 -- 0.382
Loney hit 0.380 last year at AAA. Why the sudden decline this year? Was it just disappointment at being left down at AAA? Was he pressing to play even better?
In 2006, Loney in AAA had a line drive rate of 25% on all balls in play, and struck out in 9% of his at bats. In 2007, Loney in AAA declined to a 21% line drive rate and struck out in 20% of his at bats. That's a huge jump in his strikeouts. Maybe he was pressing. In my opinion it's the most likely explanation. His natural talent ( and some luck ) that he displayed weren't good enough to earn him a job in 2007, so he strove to do more than he could in his second tour of AAA, and the strikeouts were the result.
How much will Loney play? He might play a little bit in the outfield, but it's already rather crowded out there, especially if Pierre still gets the bulk of time in center and Kemp is forced to battle Ethier for left field. I can't imagine Loney playing left field more than once a week.
So most of his playing time will have to come at the expense of Nomar. Nomar has already sat two games in a row, and it might become three tonight. So there clearly is a willingness to bench Nomar for extended periods, though it's going to get harder and Nomar will likely complain about it more as the weeks go on. It's one thing to give him an extended rest after two solid months of him starting, but to keep benching him for several days a week will invite trouble and controversy.
Loney needs to play at least half the time. Really it should be at least two thirds of the time, but that will likely be impossible, at least at first. But I don't think management would have recalled Loney if they didn't intend to give him regular playing time. I'm going to say he'll get it. He'll start at least half of the team's games over the next month. And if Nomar complains, he can ask for a trade. This is the reason his no-trade clause doesn't matter. If you want to make Loney the starting first baseman, then you just do it. Unless Nomar is willing to accept a backup role, then his no-trade clause will magically disappear. The error would be in thinking that Nomar has to be traded before Loney can become the regular first baseman. Now Loney is not yet the regular first baseman, but things are heading in that direction. From here performance will tell the tale.
Matthew Ryan Kemp
age: 22
bats: right
MLB: 9 games -- 0.381 -- 0.391 -- 0.429
AAA: 0.329 -- 0.374 -- 0.540
How often will Kemp play center and steal Juan Pierre's playing time? Not as much as Loney steals Nomar's playing time, I imagine.
Kemp too needs to play at the very least half the time. So far he's only played in 1 of 4 games, though I'm guessing he'll get the start tonight and tomorrow night. I don't think management is convinced he can play center field regularly. But with Brady Clark gone, he will have to play center field when Pierre is not in there, unless Ethier is tabbed instead.
Luis Gonzalez is playing rather well, so he shouldn't get more than a game every two weeks off. Pierre seems entrenched in center by default, so it seems that Kemp and Ethier will battle for playing time, with Loney in the mix occasionally as well. Ethier figures to be the odd man out here, which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world at this point. He's just not getting it done right now. But I hope Kemp will also see some starts in center as well.
Etanislao Toni Abreu
age: 22
bats: switch
MLB: 19 games -- 0.262 -- 0.279 -- 0.400
AAA: 0.347 -- 0.397 -- 0.503
Abreu is beginning to show his unreadiness. He is no longer quite as exciting and unknown. His limitations are becoming defined.
Back when LaRoche was demoted, I asked what would happen when the hits stopped coming, when the walk-challenged Abreu had a 1-12 stretch. Would he still get on base 4 times as LaRoche could? In his last three games, Abreu is 1-13, with no walks. Abreu is no LaRoche.
Abreu has 9 doubles. I've seen his whack the ball all around the field plenty of times. Just not often enough. It doesn't seem that he's ready yet. It's a shame, because he's being given as much playing time as he wants. Maybe that's the problem. When a young player isn't ready, playing time eventually turns into a curse.
I hope playing time isn't a curse for Loney and Kemp.
11 June 2007
Mets Preview
by Joshua Worley
The Mets win with good offense, defense, and pitching. They've scored the fourth most runs in the league and allowed the second fewest. The Mets are really good, but they're also 2-7 in their last three series, sending them to a record of 36-25. If the Dodgers were in the NL East, they'd only be 2 games back of the Mets.
The Dodgers and their fans shouldn't fear the Mets too much. The bullpen is good but can be scored on, as happened when the 'pen lost all three games against Philadelphia. The offense is good but there are a few holes in the lineup, and a good pitcher can hold them down. The playoff sweep last year means nothing now.
Shawn David Green -- RF
age: 34
bats: left
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.314 -- 0.373 -- 0.485
Green is scheduled to be activated from the DL for tonight's game. He was disabled for the first time in his career after suffering a broken right foot.
Aside from this injury, Green appears to be having a small resurgence. His batting average is higher than it's ever been, thanks in part to a career low strikeout rate. Still, with a line drive rate of 17%, he should be batting 0.290 or so, not 0.314. Green is a singles and doubles hitter now; he hasn't been a serious home run threat for a few years. His defense is by reputation really awful now. It seemed as if he was making a hideous error or misplay in every game of the NLCS against the Cardinals.
When I think of Green's tenure with the Dodgers, I think of all those weak ground balls to second base that he was hitting in his last few years with the team. It's a pity, because he was a great player for them in 2001 and 2002, and he wasn't that bad in 2003 and 2004. It was just so maddening to watch him bat in the later years, like watching a great hitter slowly turn into Juan Pierre. Green still has a very high ground ball rate, so I imagine he's still hitting his share of weak grounders to second base. I wish I remembered him more fondly, but I just don't for some reason. I think it's because when the Dodger so desperately needed his offense in 2003 he basically disappeared, by his standards.
Paul Anthony Lo Duca -- C
age: 35
bats: right
0.306 -- 0.357 -- 0.383
Paul Lo Duca, 0.300 hitter. That description seems to fitting, and yet in his six full big league seasons he's batted above 0.300 just twice, in 2001 and 2006. Lo Duca had a monster year in 2001, but he's never come close to that since. Lo Duca is famous for his September swoons, which have often taken his averages from above 0.300 to below by the end of the year. I think the reason Paulie seems like an eternal 0.300 hitter is that for the majority of days in his career, his season-to-date average has been above 0.300. We remember him hitting over 0.300 in July and June as much as we remember his final batting averages.
Lo Duca is another former Dodger I don't remember as fondly as I should. In this case I think it's mostly the lingering bitterness over the fall-out of the trade that shipped Lo Duca away from the team. I didn't have a problem with the trade, though at the time I did hate to lose Lo Duca. I just wish people hadn't been so angry about it, so irrational about it, so unwilling to see that there was a sound argument in favor of it even if they didn't agree with that argument. It became something that couldn't be discussed rationally.
The other problem is that a lot of Lo Duca's folk-hero luster has worn off since 2001. Stories about him being a jerk began to come out, and then there was his public split with his wife, all while Lo Duca never hit as well as he did in 2001. Just this offseason pitcher John Thompson said a reason he chose Toronto over the Mets in free agency was that he didn't want to pitch to Paul Lo Duca. Wow. That's bizarre, yes? Now, all these things are rather unfair to hold against Lo Duca. And I don't hold them against him ... it's just that when it came time to renew my fondness for Lo Duca, I let it lapse instead. If the marks against Lo Duca now are unfair or irrational, maybe it should be acknowledged that a lot of the reasons for his popularity were also unfair or irrational. Why was he so popular? Aside from his out-of-nowhere great 2001, I can't come up with anything.
All that said, if I was going to be at one of the games against the Mets this week, I'd cheer for him when he was introduced.
Lo Duca got two days off of catching by starting at DH in the Mets last series, so he may well start all three games against the Dodgers. LoDuca has hit poorly against the Dodgers in his career, with no home runs.
Jose Antonio Valentin -- 2B
age: 37
bats: switch
0.272 -- 0.341 -- 0.444
Call it Daryl Ward disease. When one looks at Valentin's career, one year stands out as particularly awful: his year with the Dodgers. Valentin was plagued by injuries that year, and played in only 56 games. I remember Griffster being so flummoxed by how Valentin was still able to draw walks at such a high rate when he demonstrably could not hit at all. Valentin's on base percentage of 0.326 in 2005 is actually above his career average. It was his tiny 0.170 batting average and mere 2 home runs that made it an awful year. I think I associate Valentin, more than any other player, with the debacle of 2005. But why him? Because he it was his only year with the team, he was so often hurt, the dominant theme that year, and he was just so awful.
Valentin has been hurt again this year. He was just activated from the DL last Friday after going on with a right knee injury in April. If human knees could fall off, I bet Valentin's right knee would have fallen off by now.
Valentin has done fairly well since 2005, though he has to be considered one of the weaker hitters on the Mets right now. I remain amazed that a team like the Mets can't come up with something better at second base than Jose Valentin, though he did have an OPS of 0.820 last year.
Jose Bernabe Reyes -- SS
age: 24
bats: switch
0.310 -- 0.396 -- 0.452
In 2005, Reyes was Juan Pierre at short with a small amount of pop. In 2006, Reyes was more like Omar Vizquel in his prime with great speed. In 2007, Reyes has truly come into his own as one of the great players in the NL.
Well, probably. After a scorching April, Reyes hasn't been quite as good in May and June. The power he flashed in 2006 seems to have mostly disappeared this year, so there really is no reason to walk him except wildness. Walks have become a big part of his game and I hope the Dodgers won't give him any this series.
David Allen Wright -- 3B
age: 24
bats: right
0.279 -- 0.374 -- 0.511
Wright has been the opposite of Reyes: middling April, scorching May and June. He's really good, one of the reasons the Dodgers may lose this series.
Carlos Ivan Beltran -- CF
age: 30
bats: switch
0.284 -- 0.371 -- 0.486
I'm so jealous of teams with center fielders who can hit.
Carlos Juan Delgado -- 1B
age: 34
bats: left
0.227 -- 0.299 -- 0.412
I'm so jealous of teams with first basemen who can ... hey, wait a minute!
What's up with Delgado? This season he's still a threat to hit a fair amount of home runs and doubles, but that batting average is so low. He's striking out 20% of the time, but he's always done that and still posted an average around 0.275. His line drive percentage is down to 17% this year, which may account for some of his struggles. Like Nomar, Delgado has the name but not the game so far this year. I'd give Delgado a better chance of bouncing back, though.
Ricardo Alberto Ledee -- LF
age: 33
bats: left
Another ex-Dodger. I'm rather neutral toward him, because how much emotion can one invest in a fifth outfielder anyway? Ledee actually had 237 at bats in 2005 for the Dodgers, which is way too many for a player of his mild skill. Another indication of the disaster that was 2005.
He was just called up to play left field part time because both Moises Alou and Endy Chavez are on the DL. He's only played in two games, which is why I haven't shown a batting line for him. He'll share time with Benjamin Joseph Johnson, a righty hitting 25 year-old with only 9 games played so far. The Mets just can't get all their outfielders healthy at once.
Orlando Hernandez Pedroso -- P
age: 41
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
1.94 -- 51.0 -- 35 -- 18 -- 5
Those don't look like the stats of a 1.94 ERA pitcher to me. His ERA the previous two years was above 4. His fielding independent pitching is above 4 this year. His batting average allowed on balls in play is 0.180, absurdly low. I think the Dodgers can hit him, though if they will is an open question.
El Duque was out for the first half of May with bursitis. In his last three starts since coming off the DL he's given up just 2 runs.
He goes up against Wolf tonight. Wolf is likely to strike out many more batters than El Duque does. I just hope that translates into Wolf allowing many fewer runs than El Duque. Since both El Duque and Wolf are historically fly ball pitchers, the game could turn on outfield defense, which would likely be bad news for the Dodgers.
John Kevin Maine -- P
age: 26
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.78 -- 74.1 -- 66 -- 34 -- 6
He'll give up a few walks. I predict the Dodgers will load the bases at least once against him. But what will they do once the sacks are packed? Upon that question may hang the balance of the game. Maine is another fly ball pitcher.
Maine goes up against Kuo. I think Kuo will do well again, and the game may be decided by the bullpens.
Jorge Bolivar Sosa -- P
age: 30
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.64 -- 44.1 -- 27 -- 15 -- 4
The Mets defense must be really good, because all these pitchers have too low batting averages on balls in play allowed. Sosa has pitcked up the two wins during the Mets current 2-7 stretch.
Penny is the Dodger starter in the Wednesday game against Sosa. I think if he can keep his home run voodoo going and keep the Mets sluggers in the park the Dodgers might be able to crack Sosa for a few runs and steal the likely rubber game of the series.
The Mets win with good offense, defense, and pitching. They've scored the fourth most runs in the league and allowed the second fewest. The Mets are really good, but they're also 2-7 in their last three series, sending them to a record of 36-25. If the Dodgers were in the NL East, they'd only be 2 games back of the Mets.
The Dodgers and their fans shouldn't fear the Mets too much. The bullpen is good but can be scored on, as happened when the 'pen lost all three games against Philadelphia. The offense is good but there are a few holes in the lineup, and a good pitcher can hold them down. The playoff sweep last year means nothing now.
Shawn David Green -- RF
age: 34
bats: left
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.314 -- 0.373 -- 0.485
Green is scheduled to be activated from the DL for tonight's game. He was disabled for the first time in his career after suffering a broken right foot.
Aside from this injury, Green appears to be having a small resurgence. His batting average is higher than it's ever been, thanks in part to a career low strikeout rate. Still, with a line drive rate of 17%, he should be batting 0.290 or so, not 0.314. Green is a singles and doubles hitter now; he hasn't been a serious home run threat for a few years. His defense is by reputation really awful now. It seemed as if he was making a hideous error or misplay in every game of the NLCS against the Cardinals.
When I think of Green's tenure with the Dodgers, I think of all those weak ground balls to second base that he was hitting in his last few years with the team. It's a pity, because he was a great player for them in 2001 and 2002, and he wasn't that bad in 2003 and 2004. It was just so maddening to watch him bat in the later years, like watching a great hitter slowly turn into Juan Pierre. Green still has a very high ground ball rate, so I imagine he's still hitting his share of weak grounders to second base. I wish I remembered him more fondly, but I just don't for some reason. I think it's because when the Dodger so desperately needed his offense in 2003 he basically disappeared, by his standards.
Paul Anthony Lo Duca -- C
age: 35
bats: right
0.306 -- 0.357 -- 0.383
Paul Lo Duca, 0.300 hitter. That description seems to fitting, and yet in his six full big league seasons he's batted above 0.300 just twice, in 2001 and 2006. Lo Duca had a monster year in 2001, but he's never come close to that since. Lo Duca is famous for his September swoons, which have often taken his averages from above 0.300 to below by the end of the year. I think the reason Paulie seems like an eternal 0.300 hitter is that for the majority of days in his career, his season-to-date average has been above 0.300. We remember him hitting over 0.300 in July and June as much as we remember his final batting averages.
Lo Duca is another former Dodger I don't remember as fondly as I should. In this case I think it's mostly the lingering bitterness over the fall-out of the trade that shipped Lo Duca away from the team. I didn't have a problem with the trade, though at the time I did hate to lose Lo Duca. I just wish people hadn't been so angry about it, so irrational about it, so unwilling to see that there was a sound argument in favor of it even if they didn't agree with that argument. It became something that couldn't be discussed rationally.
The other problem is that a lot of Lo Duca's folk-hero luster has worn off since 2001. Stories about him being a jerk began to come out, and then there was his public split with his wife, all while Lo Duca never hit as well as he did in 2001. Just this offseason pitcher John Thompson said a reason he chose Toronto over the Mets in free agency was that he didn't want to pitch to Paul Lo Duca. Wow. That's bizarre, yes? Now, all these things are rather unfair to hold against Lo Duca. And I don't hold them against him ... it's just that when it came time to renew my fondness for Lo Duca, I let it lapse instead. If the marks against Lo Duca now are unfair or irrational, maybe it should be acknowledged that a lot of the reasons for his popularity were also unfair or irrational. Why was he so popular? Aside from his out-of-nowhere great 2001, I can't come up with anything.
All that said, if I was going to be at one of the games against the Mets this week, I'd cheer for him when he was introduced.
Lo Duca got two days off of catching by starting at DH in the Mets last series, so he may well start all three games against the Dodgers. LoDuca has hit poorly against the Dodgers in his career, with no home runs.
Jose Antonio Valentin -- 2B
age: 37
bats: switch
0.272 -- 0.341 -- 0.444
Call it Daryl Ward disease. When one looks at Valentin's career, one year stands out as particularly awful: his year with the Dodgers. Valentin was plagued by injuries that year, and played in only 56 games. I remember Griffster being so flummoxed by how Valentin was still able to draw walks at such a high rate when he demonstrably could not hit at all. Valentin's on base percentage of 0.326 in 2005 is actually above his career average. It was his tiny 0.170 batting average and mere 2 home runs that made it an awful year. I think I associate Valentin, more than any other player, with the debacle of 2005. But why him? Because he it was his only year with the team, he was so often hurt, the dominant theme that year, and he was just so awful.
Valentin has been hurt again this year. He was just activated from the DL last Friday after going on with a right knee injury in April. If human knees could fall off, I bet Valentin's right knee would have fallen off by now.
Valentin has done fairly well since 2005, though he has to be considered one of the weaker hitters on the Mets right now. I remain amazed that a team like the Mets can't come up with something better at second base than Jose Valentin, though he did have an OPS of 0.820 last year.
Jose Bernabe Reyes -- SS
age: 24
bats: switch
0.310 -- 0.396 -- 0.452
In 2005, Reyes was Juan Pierre at short with a small amount of pop. In 2006, Reyes was more like Omar Vizquel in his prime with great speed. In 2007, Reyes has truly come into his own as one of the great players in the NL.
Well, probably. After a scorching April, Reyes hasn't been quite as good in May and June. The power he flashed in 2006 seems to have mostly disappeared this year, so there really is no reason to walk him except wildness. Walks have become a big part of his game and I hope the Dodgers won't give him any this series.
David Allen Wright -- 3B
age: 24
bats: right
0.279 -- 0.374 -- 0.511
Wright has been the opposite of Reyes: middling April, scorching May and June. He's really good, one of the reasons the Dodgers may lose this series.
Carlos Ivan Beltran -- CF
age: 30
bats: switch
0.284 -- 0.371 -- 0.486
I'm so jealous of teams with center fielders who can hit.
Carlos Juan Delgado -- 1B
age: 34
bats: left
0.227 -- 0.299 -- 0.412
I'm so jealous of teams with first basemen who can ... hey, wait a minute!
What's up with Delgado? This season he's still a threat to hit a fair amount of home runs and doubles, but that batting average is so low. He's striking out 20% of the time, but he's always done that and still posted an average around 0.275. His line drive percentage is down to 17% this year, which may account for some of his struggles. Like Nomar, Delgado has the name but not the game so far this year. I'd give Delgado a better chance of bouncing back, though.
Ricardo Alberto Ledee -- LF
age: 33
bats: left
Another ex-Dodger. I'm rather neutral toward him, because how much emotion can one invest in a fifth outfielder anyway? Ledee actually had 237 at bats in 2005 for the Dodgers, which is way too many for a player of his mild skill. Another indication of the disaster that was 2005.
He was just called up to play left field part time because both Moises Alou and Endy Chavez are on the DL. He's only played in two games, which is why I haven't shown a batting line for him. He'll share time with Benjamin Joseph Johnson, a righty hitting 25 year-old with only 9 games played so far. The Mets just can't get all their outfielders healthy at once.
Orlando Hernandez Pedroso -- P
age: 41
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
1.94 -- 51.0 -- 35 -- 18 -- 5
Those don't look like the stats of a 1.94 ERA pitcher to me. His ERA the previous two years was above 4. His fielding independent pitching is above 4 this year. His batting average allowed on balls in play is 0.180, absurdly low. I think the Dodgers can hit him, though if they will is an open question.
El Duque was out for the first half of May with bursitis. In his last three starts since coming off the DL he's given up just 2 runs.
He goes up against Wolf tonight. Wolf is likely to strike out many more batters than El Duque does. I just hope that translates into Wolf allowing many fewer runs than El Duque. Since both El Duque and Wolf are historically fly ball pitchers, the game could turn on outfield defense, which would likely be bad news for the Dodgers.
John Kevin Maine -- P
age: 26
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.78 -- 74.1 -- 66 -- 34 -- 6
He'll give up a few walks. I predict the Dodgers will load the bases at least once against him. But what will they do once the sacks are packed? Upon that question may hang the balance of the game. Maine is another fly ball pitcher.
Maine goes up against Kuo. I think Kuo will do well again, and the game may be decided by the bullpens.
Jorge Bolivar Sosa -- P
age: 30
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
2.64 -- 44.1 -- 27 -- 15 -- 4
The Mets defense must be really good, because all these pitchers have too low batting averages on balls in play allowed. Sosa has pitcked up the two wins during the Mets current 2-7 stretch.
Penny is the Dodger starter in the Wednesday game against Sosa. I think if he can keep his home run voodoo going and keep the Mets sluggers in the park the Dodgers might be able to crack Sosa for a few runs and steal the likely rubber game of the series.
09 June 2007
Reversal
by Joshua Worley
It was a moment of electric blue, and then he crushed the ball. In those first moments after contact I just hoped it would be a double, that I wasn't fooling myself with hope over a ball that would be caught in the gap. I wasn't yet thinking about Abreu scoring: I just wanted to see the ball come down without being caught. But it didn't come down. It just kept going, until, with the same sense of unreality with which I had watched so many plays in the previous two days, I realized that the ball would never come down in the field of play. All the anguish of the last two games was washed away. It was pure joy. This time, they couldn't take it away. It was ours. We had our moment, our victory. Saenz!
rewind ...
At first I didn't notice the ocean of blue and white. I was so intent on the moment, the man at the plate, that I was missing the moment. Everyone was waving the giveaway Dodger beach towels, prompted by the diamond vision. Wave your towels, it said. Surround the field with a humming blue sea. It was slow and beautiful, unlike any towel waving display I had seen before. It was electric, hypnotic, to see it, to be inside of it, creating a small part of it. We were an ocean. No matter what Saenz did at the plate, it was a moment to remember. Saenz took a strike. The count was 0-1.
rewind ...
As soon as Abreu walked, I thought it, but I didn't dare even say it. As Saenz came up to the plate, I was cynical, ready to be disappointed. I started to say to my wife, "He's going to hit into a ... you know." Double play. We'd seen it before. But I didn't say it. It didn't feel right, to be so negative. As for the other, the dream, I barely even thought it. Now that he was actually coming up to the plate, and a man was a first, I didn't want to face the disappointment when it didn't happen. There was no way I would say it. Home run. But I did think it, in a small voice. Not even the crushing disappointment of losing two leads in the last two games would erase all of my hope. Home run ... maybe.
rewind ...
Just get on base, I thought, as I always do in that situation. Get a walk, Abreu. I favor the walk, because it's so certain. A ball hit hard can still be caught. I like the perseverance and grit of working a walk. And Abreu needed to get the walk. He hadn't been walking at all. He needed to walk for the team and himself. Give the Dodgers a runner, and give us a reason to think he might belong in the big leauges. As he worked the count, all the way to 3-2, I thought about what I would write for the blog. In spite of the small hope I had now, defeat felt inevitable. What would I write about such a disappointing game, the second in a row? I thought about writing nothing, or writing something scathing, negative. The season is over. The Dodgers can't win. They've rolled over. But no, what I would really be saying was that I can't handle it. I've rolled over. It's just one game. I thought about the positive things I could take away from the game, that I could write about. And then ball four came, inside. A man at first, because Abreu had walked! I truly hadn't expected it to happen. One more positive thing to write about. They were still fighting for the game, and I was still fighting not to lose hope over a couple of disheartening games. Abreu had walked! Just one more reason not to roll over in defeat.
rewind ...
"The Tomato!", I said to my wife, pointing to Saenz, as Abreu was about to step up to the plate. It was a comforting, reassuring sight, to see him waiting for his at-bat. It was exciting too. There is always hope when Olmedo is at the plate. Usually the best moments of his at-bats are before the at-bat, when anything is possible, when one can still dream of a home run, of a booming double, of a hapless pitcher throwing a fastball over the heart of the plate and the wolf Saenz lamb-chopping it to Pasadena. What a comfort it is to see Saenz come on-deck, to be able to dream. Even though we were about to see the Dodgers lose, things didn't seem that bad. Saenz would be coming up after Abreu. At least we got to dream.
rewind ...
The ball seemed to go through his glove. I thought he had it. I thought Abreu's dive had stopped the ball, stopped the run from scoring. For a moment it seemed that it was in his glove, just as it had seemed when Kent got his glove around the ball flared down the right field line. But it went off the glove. No! It went skidding past Abreu, down the line, as if it was a single down the line. It was a single down the line. With a sense of unreality I watched the runner come around third. It was happening again. He was scoring the go-ahead run, and the Dodgers were going to lose again. A ninth-inning lead blown again. The defense had failed them again. An elite reliever had failed them again. Why was I surprised? Why was I so disappointed? I tried to shield myself from it. I knew it would happen. I told my wife, "Gregg Zaun is going to get a hit and drive in the run." It was inevitable after Kent's misplay. Was it really? Of course not. But I said it, and it happened. One thing doesn't have anything to do with another, except to show that how divided I was, how hope and despair warred inside me. I knew the RBI hit would happen, and yet when Zaun hit the ball I thought Abreu had it. How could I think both these things?
rewind ...
Nope, I said. Not a home run. It's hit too high. He's going to catch it at the wall. Not for the first time, I was wrong. Everyone else thought it was gone, though. They were already cheering as if it would go. It did. In fact Gonzo hadn't hit it too high. Luis Gonzalez delivered a home run, a 2-run shot to turn a one run deficit into a one run lead. Six innings of frustration were washed away. The previous horrible defeat was washed away. The game was soon to be won. Fortune was reversed, finally. I thought all this, I really did. And again, I was wrong.
rewind ...
We talked about not going to the game. After that 6-5 defeat to the Padres I didn't want to even think about the Dodgers again, not for a long time. But we decided to go. It was our one year marriage anniversary. We both loved being at Dodger stadium. It was a two hour drive to get there, but it was worth it. Even when they lost, it was always worth it. And we might see Matt Kemp. I made sure not to find out the eventual starting lineup before we left for the game, because I wanted to preserve for as long as possible the chance that we might see him start. The Bison! What a gift it was, that he had been called up. Maybe he would start, or maybe he would pinch hit, and hit a come-from behind game winning home run. Anything is possible at a Dodger game. A heartbreaking defeat, or an impossible victory. There's nothing like going to Dodger Stadium. There's always the possibility for despair to be reversed, for time to stand still in a moment of electric blue.
It was a moment of electric blue, and then he crushed the ball. In those first moments after contact I just hoped it would be a double, that I wasn't fooling myself with hope over a ball that would be caught in the gap. I wasn't yet thinking about Abreu scoring: I just wanted to see the ball come down without being caught. But it didn't come down. It just kept going, until, with the same sense of unreality with which I had watched so many plays in the previous two days, I realized that the ball would never come down in the field of play. All the anguish of the last two games was washed away. It was pure joy. This time, they couldn't take it away. It was ours. We had our moment, our victory. Saenz!
rewind ...
At first I didn't notice the ocean of blue and white. I was so intent on the moment, the man at the plate, that I was missing the moment. Everyone was waving the giveaway Dodger beach towels, prompted by the diamond vision. Wave your towels, it said. Surround the field with a humming blue sea. It was slow and beautiful, unlike any towel waving display I had seen before. It was electric, hypnotic, to see it, to be inside of it, creating a small part of it. We were an ocean. No matter what Saenz did at the plate, it was a moment to remember. Saenz took a strike. The count was 0-1.
rewind ...
As soon as Abreu walked, I thought it, but I didn't dare even say it. As Saenz came up to the plate, I was cynical, ready to be disappointed. I started to say to my wife, "He's going to hit into a ... you know." Double play. We'd seen it before. But I didn't say it. It didn't feel right, to be so negative. As for the other, the dream, I barely even thought it. Now that he was actually coming up to the plate, and a man was a first, I didn't want to face the disappointment when it didn't happen. There was no way I would say it. Home run. But I did think it, in a small voice. Not even the crushing disappointment of losing two leads in the last two games would erase all of my hope. Home run ... maybe.
rewind ...
Just get on base, I thought, as I always do in that situation. Get a walk, Abreu. I favor the walk, because it's so certain. A ball hit hard can still be caught. I like the perseverance and grit of working a walk. And Abreu needed to get the walk. He hadn't been walking at all. He needed to walk for the team and himself. Give the Dodgers a runner, and give us a reason to think he might belong in the big leauges. As he worked the count, all the way to 3-2, I thought about what I would write for the blog. In spite of the small hope I had now, defeat felt inevitable. What would I write about such a disappointing game, the second in a row? I thought about writing nothing, or writing something scathing, negative. The season is over. The Dodgers can't win. They've rolled over. But no, what I would really be saying was that I can't handle it. I've rolled over. It's just one game. I thought about the positive things I could take away from the game, that I could write about. And then ball four came, inside. A man at first, because Abreu had walked! I truly hadn't expected it to happen. One more positive thing to write about. They were still fighting for the game, and I was still fighting not to lose hope over a couple of disheartening games. Abreu had walked! Just one more reason not to roll over in defeat.
rewind ...
"The Tomato!", I said to my wife, pointing to Saenz, as Abreu was about to step up to the plate. It was a comforting, reassuring sight, to see him waiting for his at-bat. It was exciting too. There is always hope when Olmedo is at the plate. Usually the best moments of his at-bats are before the at-bat, when anything is possible, when one can still dream of a home run, of a booming double, of a hapless pitcher throwing a fastball over the heart of the plate and the wolf Saenz lamb-chopping it to Pasadena. What a comfort it is to see Saenz come on-deck, to be able to dream. Even though we were about to see the Dodgers lose, things didn't seem that bad. Saenz would be coming up after Abreu. At least we got to dream.
rewind ...
The ball seemed to go through his glove. I thought he had it. I thought Abreu's dive had stopped the ball, stopped the run from scoring. For a moment it seemed that it was in his glove, just as it had seemed when Kent got his glove around the ball flared down the right field line. But it went off the glove. No! It went skidding past Abreu, down the line, as if it was a single down the line. It was a single down the line. With a sense of unreality I watched the runner come around third. It was happening again. He was scoring the go-ahead run, and the Dodgers were going to lose again. A ninth-inning lead blown again. The defense had failed them again. An elite reliever had failed them again. Why was I surprised? Why was I so disappointed? I tried to shield myself from it. I knew it would happen. I told my wife, "Gregg Zaun is going to get a hit and drive in the run." It was inevitable after Kent's misplay. Was it really? Of course not. But I said it, and it happened. One thing doesn't have anything to do with another, except to show that how divided I was, how hope and despair warred inside me. I knew the RBI hit would happen, and yet when Zaun hit the ball I thought Abreu had it. How could I think both these things?
rewind ...
Nope, I said. Not a home run. It's hit too high. He's going to catch it at the wall. Not for the first time, I was wrong. Everyone else thought it was gone, though. They were already cheering as if it would go. It did. In fact Gonzo hadn't hit it too high. Luis Gonzalez delivered a home run, a 2-run shot to turn a one run deficit into a one run lead. Six innings of frustration were washed away. The previous horrible defeat was washed away. The game was soon to be won. Fortune was reversed, finally. I thought all this, I really did. And again, I was wrong.
rewind ...
We talked about not going to the game. After that 6-5 defeat to the Padres I didn't want to even think about the Dodgers again, not for a long time. But we decided to go. It was our one year marriage anniversary. We both loved being at Dodger stadium. It was a two hour drive to get there, but it was worth it. Even when they lost, it was always worth it. And we might see Matt Kemp. I made sure not to find out the eventual starting lineup before we left for the game, because I wanted to preserve for as long as possible the chance that we might see him start. The Bison! What a gift it was, that he had been called up. Maybe he would start, or maybe he would pinch hit, and hit a come-from behind game winning home run. Anything is possible at a Dodger game. A heartbreaking defeat, or an impossible victory. There's nothing like going to Dodger Stadium. There's always the possibility for despair to be reversed, for time to stand still in a moment of electric blue.
08 June 2007
Blue Jays Preview
by Joshua Worley
Screw last night's game. That's all that needs to be said. On to business.
The Blue Jays come into Dodger Stadium with a 28-31 record and 269 runs scored to 276 runs allowed. They are exactly what they appear to be: a slightly below average team.
The pitching matchups are McGowan v Penny, Marcum v Lowe, and Halladay v Schmidt.
Aaron Walter Hill -- 2B
age: 25
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.284 -- 0.351 -- 0.482
Hill has played in every game for the Blue Jays. He's a fine young player, currently with the third highest OPS among second basemen in the American League. His OPS is 39 points ahead of Jeff Kent's.
Hill has really made a leap in power this year. Currently with 26 extra base hits he's only 11 behind last year's total, so it's possible that he could come close to doubling his total of last year. He usually bats around the six spot, and the big danger is he could be in the middle of at least one run scoring rally against the Dodgers with an extra base hit if multiple hitters ahead of him are walked or otherwise let on base.
Troy Edward Glaus -- 3B
age: 30
bats: right
0.277 -- 0.387 -- 0.508
Not bad. I can see why the Dodgers might be interested in acquiring him. I don't endorse such a move, though. Glaus would be expensive in money and prospects, he's injury-prone, and the Dodgers seem to have a pretty good thing at third going right now with probably an even better option in AAA right now.
Glaus isn't as old as I thought. He strikes out too much to sustain a high batting average, maybe even one as high as what he carries now. He's only hit for an average above 0.260 once in his career, back in 2000. He might strike out 5 times in the Dodger series. He might also hit a home run or two, though Lowe and Penny should be able to keep him in the park.
Royce Spencer Clayton -- SS
age: 37
bats: right
0.240 -- 0.291 -- 0.341
I had no idea he was still in the majors! Not that he's really hitting well enough to belong. He strikes out as much as Glaus, but without the power. The bottom of the Jays lineup is not scary at all.
Alexis Israel Rios -- RF
age: 26
bats: right
0.294 -- 0.347 -- 0.536
His first name is a girl's name, while his middle name is the name of a country. Interesting.
The problem I see with the Jays lineup is that they don't have any true high OPB guys. Glaus has a high OBP, but that's likely to come down if his batting average goes back to career norms. Rios is typical of the Jays good hitters: good power, average on base skills. There is some good power up and down the line up, but how often will they score without a home run? The Blue Jays have hit 70 home runs to just 37 for the Dodgers, but the Jays have only scored 8 more runs than the Dodgers. If the Dodgers pitchers can keep the Jays in the park, they'll have a tough time scoring runs.
Vernon Wells III -- CF
age: 28
bats: right
0.259 -- 0.318 -- 0.414
What a disappointing season he's having so far. But he's never been much of a OBP guy, only two going above 0.350. The home runs are down this year. Hill, Glaus and Rios seem to be the real threats in the Jay lineup; not Wells.
The 120 million 7-year extension the Jays gave to Wells last off-season seems pretty unwise right now. At least they didn't give an expensive multi-year deal to a slap hitting mediocrity, I guess.
Adam Alan Lind -- LF
age: 23
bats: left
0.242 -- 0.287 -- 0.412
Lind was called up after Reed Johnson went down with an injured back. Johnson had a breakout year in 2006 with a 0.869 OPS, so that injury had really hurt the Jays offense. Lind just hasn't gotten it done yet. He does appear to be a pretty good prospect, having hit 24 home runs between AA and AAA last year with a decent OBP. But he's also probably a year away from really being ready for AL pitching. Or Dodger pitching.
Matthew Wade Stairs -- LF/1B
age: 39
bats: left
0.288 -- 0.368 -- 0.529
Stairs has seen limited playing time so far, mostly as a backup outfielder. But with Lyle Overbay out with a broken hand, Stairs is for the moment the regular first baseman. His stats are very nice, though they'll likely come down as he gets more playing time. He's not been this good for several years now. Now, will Stairs play at first base with the DH spot unavailable to Frank Thomas? The only way to get Thomas into the lineup will be to start him at first base instead.
Frank Edward Thomas -- DH
age: 39
bats: right
0.226 -- 0.367 -- 0.390
I've listed Thomas as a DH only for a reason. He's been a DH only this season. He's started 56 out of 59 team games this season. The three he didn't start? The three games in Philadelphia with no DH spot in the lineup. The Blue Jays just don't want to play him in the field, probably with good reason. Now back when the Philadelphia series was played, Overbay was at first base. The Jays might be more inclined to bench Stairs to get the Big Hurt into the lineup, but I doubt it. For one thing, Stairs actually has better stats than Thomas at the moment.
I'm not one of those who thinks it would be a good idea to swap the rules for interleague play, to have the DH in NL parks and pitchers hit in AL parks. No way. I don't ever want to see the abominable DH at Dodger stadium. However, I will grant that it's rather sad that the Dodger Stadium fans won't get to see Frank Thomas hit outside of a few pinch hitting opportunities. I predict Thomas will pinch hit twice in the series, with a walk and a strike out.
One sad note from looking at Frank Thomas's career stats: his career OPS has dipped below 1.000. You know there are people out there who consider Thomas a borderline hall-of-famer, or even not deserving at all?
John Joseph McDonald -- SS/3B
age: 32
bats: right
0.272 -- 0.287 -- 0.380
The man can't buy a walk. He has only two on the season; so why do I have this fear Lowe will walk him Saturday?
He may start one game of the series at short. He might even start a game at third base. That would be nice.
Jason Lloyd Phillips -- C
age: 30
bats: right
0.241 -- 0.311 -- 0.324
Phillips has logged 4 games at first base this year, but I don't think these are starts but rather late inning shifts. Nevertheless, I still find the idea of Phillips playing even an inning at first base to be horrifying.
He's been the everyday catcher while Greg Zaun is out with a thumb injury. But Zaun has already made some rehab starts in the minor leagues and may be back in the lineup sometime this weekend. We shall see. I won't mind not seeing Phillips play at all, even though he sucks. It's not as if Zaun is doing any better than him.
Gregory Owen Zaun -- C
age: 36
bats: switch
0.186 -- 0.279 -- 0.339
I remember when Zaun used to write movie reviews for the old ESPNet Sportszone site, back when he was the backup Marlins catcher to Charles Johnson ( another past Dodger catcher I'd rather forget ). It's amazing how much the ESPN website has changed since then. Back then I never thought Zaun would last this long in the league, much less become a starter as he was last year.
Dustin Michael McGowan -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.50 -- 36.0 -- 30 -- 16 -- 3
His weakness in a 2006 season split between AAA and the AL was walks, especially after his call-up that year. He started this year in the minors, but after his call-up at the start of May he seems to have made progress with limiting his walks this year, though the ERA is still rather high. His Fielding Independent Pitching is just 3.88 ( according to HardballTimes ), which for comparison's sake is about what Johan Santana's FIP is right now.
I suspect the Dodgers will hit him, though. He's not really as good as Santana.
Shaun Michael Marcum -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.06 -- 44.1 -- 47 -- 18 -- 9
He spent the first month in the 'pen, then went to the rotation. His numbers haven't been as good since he went to the rotation, and his home runs allowed are a bit alarming. He came out of his last start after 3 innings with a stiff back. We'll see if that has any effect on Saturday.
Harry Leroy Halladay -- P
age: 30
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.63 -- 68.0 -- 46 -- 10 -- 6
Halladay easily wins the coolest name contest on the Jays.
He was bombed, absolutely Tomko-ed in two starts at the beginning of May, giving up 9 and 8 runs to Texas and Boston. Then he went on the DL. Ah, so it was arm trouble that caused his blow-ups in those starts. But no, he went on the DL with appendicitis. So I don't know. His first start back he blanked the hapless White Sox, but his last start he was shelled by Tampa Bay for 8 runs. In his 7 non-awful starts he's only given up 13 runs. Halladay is either really good or he just gets obliterated. I vote for the second.
Predictions:
I predict the Dodgers will sweep. My wife Griffster won't like this one bit, as every time I make a ( usually too optimistic ) prediction the Dodgers do poorly. But I just think the Dodger pitching is better than the Jays pitching in this series, and that the team will be crackling good after being thoroughly embarrassed in San Diego. I don't say I expect the Dodgers to sweep; expectations are for Yankees fans. I'm just saying I think they can and will. There's no reason to mope after the last heartbreaking loss, either: moping is for Cubs fans. There's plenty of room for optimism with this team: there are no bad pitchers slated to start for the Dodgers as far as the eye can see. No Dodger fan need ever worry about drawing the Tomko-dud as a starter to a game they attend. They're all good! I'm happy just thinking about it. Every Dodger series is a tough pitching slate for the opposition.
Now, the Dodgers have a choice after that tough loss. Show, or roll over. I don't think they're going to roll over. I'm going to be at tonight's game. The Dodgers may not win, but they certainly will show. That's all we can ask.
Screw last night's game. That's all that needs to be said. On to business.
The Blue Jays come into Dodger Stadium with a 28-31 record and 269 runs scored to 276 runs allowed. They are exactly what they appear to be: a slightly below average team.
The pitching matchups are McGowan v Penny, Marcum v Lowe, and Halladay v Schmidt.
Aaron Walter Hill -- 2B
age: 25
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.284 -- 0.351 -- 0.482
Hill has played in every game for the Blue Jays. He's a fine young player, currently with the third highest OPS among second basemen in the American League. His OPS is 39 points ahead of Jeff Kent's.
Hill has really made a leap in power this year. Currently with 26 extra base hits he's only 11 behind last year's total, so it's possible that he could come close to doubling his total of last year. He usually bats around the six spot, and the big danger is he could be in the middle of at least one run scoring rally against the Dodgers with an extra base hit if multiple hitters ahead of him are walked or otherwise let on base.
Troy Edward Glaus -- 3B
age: 30
bats: right
0.277 -- 0.387 -- 0.508
Not bad. I can see why the Dodgers might be interested in acquiring him. I don't endorse such a move, though. Glaus would be expensive in money and prospects, he's injury-prone, and the Dodgers seem to have a pretty good thing at third going right now with probably an even better option in AAA right now.
Glaus isn't as old as I thought. He strikes out too much to sustain a high batting average, maybe even one as high as what he carries now. He's only hit for an average above 0.260 once in his career, back in 2000. He might strike out 5 times in the Dodger series. He might also hit a home run or two, though Lowe and Penny should be able to keep him in the park.
Royce Spencer Clayton -- SS
age: 37
bats: right
0.240 -- 0.291 -- 0.341
I had no idea he was still in the majors! Not that he's really hitting well enough to belong. He strikes out as much as Glaus, but without the power. The bottom of the Jays lineup is not scary at all.
Alexis Israel Rios -- RF
age: 26
bats: right
0.294 -- 0.347 -- 0.536
His first name is a girl's name, while his middle name is the name of a country. Interesting.
The problem I see with the Jays lineup is that they don't have any true high OPB guys. Glaus has a high OBP, but that's likely to come down if his batting average goes back to career norms. Rios is typical of the Jays good hitters: good power, average on base skills. There is some good power up and down the line up, but how often will they score without a home run? The Blue Jays have hit 70 home runs to just 37 for the Dodgers, but the Jays have only scored 8 more runs than the Dodgers. If the Dodgers pitchers can keep the Jays in the park, they'll have a tough time scoring runs.
Vernon Wells III -- CF
age: 28
bats: right
0.259 -- 0.318 -- 0.414
What a disappointing season he's having so far. But he's never been much of a OBP guy, only two going above 0.350. The home runs are down this year. Hill, Glaus and Rios seem to be the real threats in the Jay lineup; not Wells.
The 120 million 7-year extension the Jays gave to Wells last off-season seems pretty unwise right now. At least they didn't give an expensive multi-year deal to a slap hitting mediocrity, I guess.
Adam Alan Lind -- LF
age: 23
bats: left
0.242 -- 0.287 -- 0.412
Lind was called up after Reed Johnson went down with an injured back. Johnson had a breakout year in 2006 with a 0.869 OPS, so that injury had really hurt the Jays offense. Lind just hasn't gotten it done yet. He does appear to be a pretty good prospect, having hit 24 home runs between AA and AAA last year with a decent OBP. But he's also probably a year away from really being ready for AL pitching. Or Dodger pitching.
Matthew Wade Stairs -- LF/1B
age: 39
bats: left
0.288 -- 0.368 -- 0.529
Stairs has seen limited playing time so far, mostly as a backup outfielder. But with Lyle Overbay out with a broken hand, Stairs is for the moment the regular first baseman. His stats are very nice, though they'll likely come down as he gets more playing time. He's not been this good for several years now. Now, will Stairs play at first base with the DH spot unavailable to Frank Thomas? The only way to get Thomas into the lineup will be to start him at first base instead.
Frank Edward Thomas -- DH
age: 39
bats: right
0.226 -- 0.367 -- 0.390
I've listed Thomas as a DH only for a reason. He's been a DH only this season. He's started 56 out of 59 team games this season. The three he didn't start? The three games in Philadelphia with no DH spot in the lineup. The Blue Jays just don't want to play him in the field, probably with good reason. Now back when the Philadelphia series was played, Overbay was at first base. The Jays might be more inclined to bench Stairs to get the Big Hurt into the lineup, but I doubt it. For one thing, Stairs actually has better stats than Thomas at the moment.
I'm not one of those who thinks it would be a good idea to swap the rules for interleague play, to have the DH in NL parks and pitchers hit in AL parks. No way. I don't ever want to see the abominable DH at Dodger stadium. However, I will grant that it's rather sad that the Dodger Stadium fans won't get to see Frank Thomas hit outside of a few pinch hitting opportunities. I predict Thomas will pinch hit twice in the series, with a walk and a strike out.
One sad note from looking at Frank Thomas's career stats: his career OPS has dipped below 1.000. You know there are people out there who consider Thomas a borderline hall-of-famer, or even not deserving at all?
John Joseph McDonald -- SS/3B
age: 32
bats: right
0.272 -- 0.287 -- 0.380
The man can't buy a walk. He has only two on the season; so why do I have this fear Lowe will walk him Saturday?
He may start one game of the series at short. He might even start a game at third base. That would be nice.
Jason Lloyd Phillips -- C
age: 30
bats: right
0.241 -- 0.311 -- 0.324
Phillips has logged 4 games at first base this year, but I don't think these are starts but rather late inning shifts. Nevertheless, I still find the idea of Phillips playing even an inning at first base to be horrifying.
He's been the everyday catcher while Greg Zaun is out with a thumb injury. But Zaun has already made some rehab starts in the minor leagues and may be back in the lineup sometime this weekend. We shall see. I won't mind not seeing Phillips play at all, even though he sucks. It's not as if Zaun is doing any better than him.
Gregory Owen Zaun -- C
age: 36
bats: switch
0.186 -- 0.279 -- 0.339
I remember when Zaun used to write movie reviews for the old ESPNet Sportszone site, back when he was the backup Marlins catcher to Charles Johnson ( another past Dodger catcher I'd rather forget ). It's amazing how much the ESPN website has changed since then. Back then I never thought Zaun would last this long in the league, much less become a starter as he was last year.
Dustin Michael McGowan -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.50 -- 36.0 -- 30 -- 16 -- 3
His weakness in a 2006 season split between AAA and the AL was walks, especially after his call-up that year. He started this year in the minors, but after his call-up at the start of May he seems to have made progress with limiting his walks this year, though the ERA is still rather high. His Fielding Independent Pitching is just 3.88 ( according to HardballTimes ), which for comparison's sake is about what Johan Santana's FIP is right now.
I suspect the Dodgers will hit him, though. He's not really as good as Santana.
Shaun Michael Marcum -- P
age: 25
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.06 -- 44.1 -- 47 -- 18 -- 9
He spent the first month in the 'pen, then went to the rotation. His numbers haven't been as good since he went to the rotation, and his home runs allowed are a bit alarming. He came out of his last start after 3 innings with a stiff back. We'll see if that has any effect on Saturday.
Harry Leroy Halladay -- P
age: 30
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
4.63 -- 68.0 -- 46 -- 10 -- 6
Halladay easily wins the coolest name contest on the Jays.
He was bombed, absolutely Tomko-ed in two starts at the beginning of May, giving up 9 and 8 runs to Texas and Boston. Then he went on the DL. Ah, so it was arm trouble that caused his blow-ups in those starts. But no, he went on the DL with appendicitis. So I don't know. His first start back he blanked the hapless White Sox, but his last start he was shelled by Tampa Bay for 8 runs. In his 7 non-awful starts he's only given up 13 runs. Halladay is either really good or he just gets obliterated. I vote for the second.
Predictions:
I predict the Dodgers will sweep. My wife Griffster won't like this one bit, as every time I make a ( usually too optimistic ) prediction the Dodgers do poorly. But I just think the Dodger pitching is better than the Jays pitching in this series, and that the team will be crackling good after being thoroughly embarrassed in San Diego. I don't say I expect the Dodgers to sweep; expectations are for Yankees fans. I'm just saying I think they can and will. There's no reason to mope after the last heartbreaking loss, either: moping is for Cubs fans. There's plenty of room for optimism with this team: there are no bad pitchers slated to start for the Dodgers as far as the eye can see. No Dodger fan need ever worry about drawing the Tomko-dud as a starter to a game they attend. They're all good! I'm happy just thinking about it. Every Dodger series is a tough pitching slate for the opposition.
Now, the Dodgers have a choice after that tough loss. Show, or roll over. I don't think they're going to roll over. I'm going to be at tonight's game. The Dodgers may not win, but they certainly will show. That's all we can ask.
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