It's a pitching heavy Blender this time around.
Standings:
Padres 3-1
Dodgers 2-1
Snakes 1-2
Rockies 1-2
The Dodgers are in a five-way tie for the wild card right now! That's going to lead to a complicated playoff home field coin-flip if this tie holds up until the end of the season. The only undefeated team left in baseball are the Royals of western Missouri. I don't feel as bad about the Dodgers failing to stay undefeated Wednesday night knowing that, for some reason.
It was a great half-week for bullpen schadenfreude in the NL West. Both Trevor Hoffman and Brandon Lyon blew saves that led to losses for their teams. There's no reason to panic after one blown save, but it's possible that Lyon may not be up for the job, and the Snakes may end up changing closers a few times this year while they try to figure out which of the great relievers of 2007 are up to repeating that performance in 2008.
In the wake of Trevor Hoffman's 4 run meltdown, the following poll appeared on Padres blog Gaslamp Ball:
You're either with Trevor Hoffman or against him. What's it gonna be?
* I stand by my man! I'm with him!
* I side with the terroists! I'm against him!
Hmmm ... I'm going to have to side with the terrorists on this one.
The Padres have had good starts from everyone so far. Fifth starter and possible weak link Germano opens the series with the Dodgers tonight. In his start Peavy was great through a scoreless 7, though he had only 4 strikeouts. The most important pitching line for the Padres was probably Randy Wolf's, with 1 run allowed in six innings, with 5 strikeouts. If Wolf can give the Padres these kinds of starts all year then they're going to do a lot better than the 82-80 record I foolishly predicted for them.
Chris Young was okay in his start. More about him, from Padres blog Ducksnorts:
As for the game, Chris Young’s final line looks decent, but don’t be fooled. His inefficiency has been well documented, and on Tuesday, he added to the legend, throwing 112 pitches in 5 2/3 innings and going to three-ball counts on 8 of the 27 batters he faced.
Sounds like something Kuo or Billingsly might do. Or Penny if he's getting fouled off a lot. The more important goal for Young will just be to stay healthy, I think.
The Rockies had the worst pitching series of anyone. Francis was rocked in his rained out start; Jimenez was wild, with 46 balls in 100 pitches; Cook was just ineffective. Kip Wells did the best of anyone in his fill-in start. The bad news for the Rockies is that so far their starting pitching looks pretty bad, and they haven't even gone to their four and five starters yet! The good news is that it's only three games. But I'm beginning to wonder if the Rockies rotation is really up to the job this year. I don't trust any of these guys except Francis.
The Snakes had decent starts from Haren and Webb, and an awful, wild start from Doug Davis. I don't know how good anyone can expect Davis to be with his cancer surgery coming up. Of course, even if he had never had cancer he is certainly capable of being a bad starting pitcher.
Snakes first baseman Conor Jackson had to come out of Wednesday's game with shortness of breath, and he wasn't in the lineup on Thursday. Doctors suspect the cause is pneumonia.
It's going to be a challenge weekend in the NL West Blender, with the Dodgers visiting the Padres and the Snakes at the Rockies. I'll be at the Saturday game in San Diego --- my first ever trip to Petco Park!
04 April 2008
02 April 2008
Run Dodgers Run
Rafael Furcal ran. The spirit of Juan Pierre was in him, in all of the Dodgers last night. They were fast and daring. The Dodgers never hit the ball very hard last night. Not often. Kent had his double, and there were a few other hard hit balls. Most of the hits were in the borderlands. Firmly hit balls, but needing to find a hole or a poor defender to become line drives in the box score. There were at least three sharp grounders to the hole between second and first that became hits. On the last of these, Furcal ran. For a moment Durham filled the hole, but he still failed. The Giants have so many ways they can fail this season. The ball rolled around, outside of Durham's glove. Furcal rounded third, never broke stride. He did what Juan Pierre would have done at his best. The throw came in to first. Young was safe at first. The throw came home. Molina whipped around with the tag. It was already too late. Furcal had scored.
The Dodgers ran up the pitch count against Matt Cain. The spirit of Juan Pierre was not in them. They were patient, worked the count, drew walks. They found success in their failure. Cain was nearly unhittable, but he was not perfect. In the end it made no difference that Pierre started instead of the Bison. Matt Kemp would likely have fared just as poorly against Matt Cain. When it really mattered, the bat was taken away from Pierre and given to Kemp. Who do you trust, with the bases loaded and two outs? Kemp struck out. But it was the right move. And it didn't matter. The Dodgers still had 9 outs to go, and Cain was out of the game. They had already won.
Larry Bowa was run. He seems to be a man in search of anger. His display on the field was disgraceful. The reason for his anger was just as disgraceful. Larry Bowa wasn't standing up for one of his players. He wasn't angry at some injustice done to his team on the field. He was standing up for his own self-importance. He was angry because the rules were, after all, going to apply to him. He has to wear a helmet, and yes, he has to stay in the coaches box. At the end of the game it was Mariano Duncan in the coaches box, waving Furcal around to win the game. The team celebrated their run-off win. Bowa was not a part of it.
Blake DeWitt ran. The spirit of Juan Pierre was in him. He slid into third at the front of a double steal. The throw beat him, but the tag didn't. He was briefly off the bag, but the tag was no longer there. He could have been out, but he wasn't. Speed never slumps. Unless it can't get on base. Unless it can't get off the bench. Unless it does something stupid. DeWitt was safe, but Furcal was not, moments later, after he drove in the tying runs. Two innings before his triumphant run home, Furcal ran himself out rounding first. So it goes with baserunning.
The Dodgers ran up the pitch count against Matt Cain. The spirit of Juan Pierre was not in them. They were patient, worked the count, drew walks. They found success in their failure. Cain was nearly unhittable, but he was not perfect. In the end it made no difference that Pierre started instead of the Bison. Matt Kemp would likely have fared just as poorly against Matt Cain. When it really mattered, the bat was taken away from Pierre and given to Kemp. Who do you trust, with the bases loaded and two outs? Kemp struck out. But it was the right move. And it didn't matter. The Dodgers still had 9 outs to go, and Cain was out of the game. They had already won.
Larry Bowa was run. He seems to be a man in search of anger. His display on the field was disgraceful. The reason for his anger was just as disgraceful. Larry Bowa wasn't standing up for one of his players. He wasn't angry at some injustice done to his team on the field. He was standing up for his own self-importance. He was angry because the rules were, after all, going to apply to him. He has to wear a helmet, and yes, he has to stay in the coaches box. At the end of the game it was Mariano Duncan in the coaches box, waving Furcal around to win the game. The team celebrated their run-off win. Bowa was not a part of it.
Blake DeWitt ran. The spirit of Juan Pierre was in him. He slid into third at the front of a double steal. The throw beat him, but the tag didn't. He was briefly off the bag, but the tag was no longer there. He could have been out, but he wasn't. Speed never slumps. Unless it can't get on base. Unless it can't get off the bench. Unless it does something stupid. DeWitt was safe, but Furcal was not, moments later, after he drove in the tying runs. Two innings before his triumphant run home, Furcal ran himself out rounding first. So it goes with baserunning.
01 April 2008
Bisonshit
I'm not really into using profanity on the blog, but nothing else will suffice for this, I fear. Juan Pierre starts in place of Matt Kemp. There are rational responses to this, I know. Sober perspectives to hold. It's just one game. But --- anger, disappointment, disbelief. That's all I got right now.
31 March 2008
Closing the Opening
After three innings I thought Penny was lucky to have held the Giants scoreless, but after six my opinion turned to the theory that he was doing just enough to get by against what he knew was an inferior team. The game never felt in doubt after the first inning, and Penny must have felt like he had a lot of rope to work with --- no need to try to overpower the inept Giants lineup. As Vinny noted most of the edge is gone now that Barry has left.
I take awhile to get back into mid-season form as a fan. I was surprised when Penny did not bunt in his third at-bat, when there were runners at first and third with one out. After Torre had put on the bunt the first two times Penny came up with a runner on first, I assumed it would happen again. When it didn't, I had the thought that Little surely would have bunted there, and maybe Torre was showing that he really wasn't a manager who loves the bunt. Nonsense, though. I eventually remembered that Penny is a very good hitting pitcher, and that Little occasionally had Penny swing away with a man on first and less than two outs last year. I think.
It has yet to develop how Torre will deploy the bunt in this go-round in the National League. With the lineup the Dodgers sent out Opening Day bunting should only occur when a pitcher is at the plate. It goes without saying that your corner players should be good enough hitters that they never bunt, and for the Dodgers the up-the-middle players all have enough power to make bunting inadvisable. Maybe he might have Furcal bunt sometime. DeWitt, possibly. I hope not. I really love the potential of this lineup. Loney is batting seventh! Can that be right?
So Pierre's consecutive games played streak is over. Stating the obvious and piling on are two of the great sins of blogging, but I'm going to say it anyway: it would really work out best for everyone if the Dodgers could trade Pierre away. Pierre really doesn't offer a whole lot off of the bench, other than a late game pinch runner, which is usually a wasteful use of one of the 25. Jason Repko would be far better in the fourth outfielder role.
I anticipated both Kent's homerun and Martin's double play. I am Nostradodgerama. I promise any other feelings I have that come true will be reported after the fact, and that I will conveniently forget the ones that don't come true. Here is the quatrain I wrote while in a trance that predicted the homerun:
The rainbow man will bow his head
His orb will go into the mountains
The rainbow man will meet his nemesis:
It will be the ancient noisy-bike dude
I take awhile to get back into mid-season form as a fan. I was surprised when Penny did not bunt in his third at-bat, when there were runners at first and third with one out. After Torre had put on the bunt the first two times Penny came up with a runner on first, I assumed it would happen again. When it didn't, I had the thought that Little surely would have bunted there, and maybe Torre was showing that he really wasn't a manager who loves the bunt. Nonsense, though. I eventually remembered that Penny is a very good hitting pitcher, and that Little occasionally had Penny swing away with a man on first and less than two outs last year. I think.
It has yet to develop how Torre will deploy the bunt in this go-round in the National League. With the lineup the Dodgers sent out Opening Day bunting should only occur when a pitcher is at the plate. It goes without saying that your corner players should be good enough hitters that they never bunt, and for the Dodgers the up-the-middle players all have enough power to make bunting inadvisable. Maybe he might have Furcal bunt sometime. DeWitt, possibly. I hope not. I really love the potential of this lineup. Loney is batting seventh! Can that be right?
So Pierre's consecutive games played streak is over. Stating the obvious and piling on are two of the great sins of blogging, but I'm going to say it anyway: it would really work out best for everyone if the Dodgers could trade Pierre away. Pierre really doesn't offer a whole lot off of the bench, other than a late game pinch runner, which is usually a wasteful use of one of the 25. Jason Repko would be far better in the fourth outfielder role.
I anticipated both Kent's homerun and Martin's double play. I am Nostradodgerama. I promise any other feelings I have that come true will be reported after the fact, and that I will conveniently forget the ones that don't come true. Here is the quatrain I wrote while in a trance that predicted the homerun:
The rainbow man will bow his head
His orb will go into the mountains
The rainbow man will meet his nemesis:
It will be the ancient noisy-bike dude
NL West Opening Day Contender Blender
In the following I take all the latest injury news and position battle resolutions of the Padres, Diamonbacks and Rockies and create a delicious, not-really nutritious summary smoothie. It's empty calories, I fear.
Padres
Mark Prior will not be ready to start the season in the rotation, in fact he was recently moved to the 60-day DL. Between Jason Schmidt and Prior, I wonder who will pitch first this season? I'm guessing Prior.
So Wolf and Germano are the back end of the Padre rotation. Randy Wolf was knocked around in his last exhibition start against the Angels, which might be an indication he's not quite ready yet. The Dodgers figure to get Germano to open their three game set in San Diego this weekend, followed by Peavy and Young.
To no one's surprise Jim Edmonds has already been hurt, and he will miss at least the first five games of the regular season. The young prospects Headly and Antonelli the Padres were sort of considering for the outfield weren't ready yet, so for now the outfield will be Giles, McAnulty and Hairston. As expected the Padre outfield is not an inspiring group.
Good reliever from last year Kevin Cameron was sent down to AAA to start the season, which really surprised me. It was an options-roster crunch, apparently.
Rockies
Jayson Nix won the second base job. It was kind of a farcical competition --- a six way battle for second base in which each contestant got about 50 spring training plate appearances. I think the fix was in for Nix to win among the six all along, unless he really fell on his face. To be fair he did have the best hitting stats among the six, for what that is worth, and he did seem to be the best choice all along anyway. I still don't think the Rockies will get much out of Nix.
Mark Redman and Franklin Morales won the two back-end jobs in the Rockie rotation. Morales might do well, but on balance this looks like a weakness for the Rockies. Then again, the Dodgers are one injury away from having Loaiza and Park be the back end of their rotation, which might be even worse. At least the Dodgers also have Kuo and Kershaw in the mix as well.
Diamondbacks
A few hours after my preview of the Snakes pitchers the news broke that Doug Davis has thyroid cancer. Now I feel really bad about saying he might not do well this year! The plan is for him to make his first two starts of the regular season, the second of these against the Dodgers, and then he'll have the surgery. He's expected to be out 4 to 6 weeks after the surgery. I don't know how the timing of the surgery was decided, but purely from a baseball perspective it sort of works out for the Snakes, because Randy Johnson should be ready to slot back into the rotation by the time Davis has his surgery. It looks like Edgar Gonzalez will be the fifth starter for at least two months.
Other than Davis being diagnosed with cancer, nothing really major happened at the end of spring training in the NL West. The Dodgers really made the most news in the last week, with Ethier beating out Pierre, and Kent coming back a little early.
Padres
Mark Prior will not be ready to start the season in the rotation, in fact he was recently moved to the 60-day DL. Between Jason Schmidt and Prior, I wonder who will pitch first this season? I'm guessing Prior.
So Wolf and Germano are the back end of the Padre rotation. Randy Wolf was knocked around in his last exhibition start against the Angels, which might be an indication he's not quite ready yet. The Dodgers figure to get Germano to open their three game set in San Diego this weekend, followed by Peavy and Young.
To no one's surprise Jim Edmonds has already been hurt, and he will miss at least the first five games of the regular season. The young prospects Headly and Antonelli the Padres were sort of considering for the outfield weren't ready yet, so for now the outfield will be Giles, McAnulty and Hairston. As expected the Padre outfield is not an inspiring group.
Good reliever from last year Kevin Cameron was sent down to AAA to start the season, which really surprised me. It was an options-roster crunch, apparently.
Rockies
Jayson Nix won the second base job. It was kind of a farcical competition --- a six way battle for second base in which each contestant got about 50 spring training plate appearances. I think the fix was in for Nix to win among the six all along, unless he really fell on his face. To be fair he did have the best hitting stats among the six, for what that is worth, and he did seem to be the best choice all along anyway. I still don't think the Rockies will get much out of Nix.
Mark Redman and Franklin Morales won the two back-end jobs in the Rockie rotation. Morales might do well, but on balance this looks like a weakness for the Rockies. Then again, the Dodgers are one injury away from having Loaiza and Park be the back end of their rotation, which might be even worse. At least the Dodgers also have Kuo and Kershaw in the mix as well.
Diamondbacks
A few hours after my preview of the Snakes pitchers the news broke that Doug Davis has thyroid cancer. Now I feel really bad about saying he might not do well this year! The plan is for him to make his first two starts of the regular season, the second of these against the Dodgers, and then he'll have the surgery. He's expected to be out 4 to 6 weeks after the surgery. I don't know how the timing of the surgery was decided, but purely from a baseball perspective it sort of works out for the Snakes, because Randy Johnson should be ready to slot back into the rotation by the time Davis has his surgery. It looks like Edgar Gonzalez will be the fifth starter for at least two months.
Other than Davis being diagnosed with cancer, nothing really major happened at the end of spring training in the NL West. The Dodgers really made the most news in the last week, with Ethier beating out Pierre, and Kent coming back a little early.
30 March 2008
Irrationality Owed Us
Yes, it is irrational that Ethier wins the starting job over Pierre based on Spring Training Stats. If Ethier had instead been the one to hit below 0.200 and Pierre had hit over 0.300 then Ethier still would have been the better choice. Ethier is the better player, the better hitter, the better fielder, the better thrower, and less than 100 at-bats against rusty major league pitchers and AAA pitchers isn't going to prove or disprove that.
But you know what? Irrationality owed us. The signing of Pierre was irrational; the insistence that only he could play center field for 161 games last year was irrational. ( He came off the bench in one game. ) Ideally the Dodgers will make all their decisions based on rationality and clear thinking. But if they're going to be irrational about things, then damn it I want it to work out the right way sometimes. Today, it did. Pierre goes to the bench. It's the right decision. Sometimes throwing darts can pick the right stock.
Now both Ethier and Kemp have to hit. A man who awards a starting spot based on Spring Training may not hesitate to pull a starter after a three week slump. It's a long season. But it's good to start it out the right way, at least.
Things seem to be turning the Dodgers' way as the season opens. After a spring full of injuries and losses and some shaky performances, the Dodgers are ending on a high note. Billingsley has quieted the fears that he wasn't quite ready with his gem Friday night, though of course he does need to build up a little bit more stamina. Ethier is starting in left. ( Why not right field, I wonder? ) Kent has returned from injury after it appeared he might not be ready by opening day. I feel good about this team. I feel like they can win 100 games.
Irrational? Yes. I wouldn't have it any other way.
But you know what? Irrationality owed us. The signing of Pierre was irrational; the insistence that only he could play center field for 161 games last year was irrational. ( He came off the bench in one game. ) Ideally the Dodgers will make all their decisions based on rationality and clear thinking. But if they're going to be irrational about things, then damn it I want it to work out the right way sometimes. Today, it did. Pierre goes to the bench. It's the right decision. Sometimes throwing darts can pick the right stock.
Now both Ethier and Kemp have to hit. A man who awards a starting spot based on Spring Training may not hesitate to pull a starter after a three week slump. It's a long season. But it's good to start it out the right way, at least.
Things seem to be turning the Dodgers' way as the season opens. After a spring full of injuries and losses and some shaky performances, the Dodgers are ending on a high note. Billingsley has quieted the fears that he wasn't quite ready with his gem Friday night, though of course he does need to build up a little bit more stamina. Ethier is starting in left. ( Why not right field, I wonder? ) Kent has returned from injury after it appeared he might not be ready by opening day. I feel good about this team. I feel like they can win 100 games.
Irrational? Yes. I wouldn't have it any other way.
28 March 2008
Snakes Slingers Summary
Last time I had a look at the Snakes offense, which wasn't a team strength last year. This time I look at their pitching, which was a strength. This is the last of the NL West contending opponent previews here are Dodgerama --- be sure to check out the Rockies preview from last week and the Padres preview from two weeks ago.
Brandon Tyler Webb
2.84, 3.59, 3.54, 3.10, 3.01: these are the earned run averages of Brandon Webb in the first five years of his career.
3.44, 3.55, 4.34, 4.06, 3.34: these are the ground ball to fly ball ratios of Brandon Webb in the first five years of his career.
12, 17, 21, 15, 12: these are the number of home runs Webb has allowed in each of the first five years of his career.
12, 24, 30, 29, 20: these are the number of ground ball double plays Webb has induced in each of the first five years of his career.
As far as I can tell Webb has never had a serious injury at the big league level in five years.
Daniel John Haren
Haren isn't the extreme ground ball pitcher that Webb is, but he does have better control. And that's all I want to say about Haren. The subject of Webb and Haren being at the top of the Snakes rotation is very depressing one for Dodger fans, especially since it seems like Haren may be the guy who puts the Snakes over the top this year.
Douglas P Davis
I think the Snakes are going to get a 4.5 ERA from Davis this year. The last two years he's basically been a 200 inning, 100 walk, 150 strikeout pitcher, which is serviceable but nothing special. I guess it's possible Davis could recapture his form of 2004 and 2005, when he had the best years of his career with a strikeout to walk ratio of 2:1. If he could do that, the Snakes would have a fearsome rotation. I see no reason to think he will, though. In fact, I think it's more likely that instead of improving he just turns up ineffective this year. Davis is 32 and the trend over the last few seasons isn't good.
Micah Burton Owings
Owings is a much more likely candidate for improvement than Davis. He could end up with a 4.0 ERA, which would be a great number from the back of the rotation. Back when Davis and Owings were the 2 and 3 starters for the Snakes, their rotation didn't look so good. Yes, they won a division with that rotation, but regardless of whatever magic the Snakes were able to put together last year, be it bullpen voodoo or just plain luck, Davis and Owings aren't what you want in your second and third best starting pitchers, especially on a team that isn't so great offensively. But a rotation where Owings and Davis are the 4 and 5 can be very good indeed. Half of that change is getting Haren, and the other half will depend on Randy Johnson being healthy and effective.
You can't realistically expect to win more than half the games Davis and Owings pitch with the offense the Snakes have. So they have to try to win the division with the starters who are better than those two. If that's just Webb, that's going to be pretty hard, as good as he is. If that's Webb and Haren and a healthy Johnson, well --- watch out for the Snakes.
Randall David Johnson
Randall isn't fully healthy yet, or at least he isn't ready to pitch in the regular season yet. But he's getting close. The Snakes will use Edgar Gonzalez in the rotation for the first two weeks, after which Johnson is expected to be ready. Gonzalez is one of those guys who is making the roster as much on the strength of his being out of options than on any excellence he has shown at the big league level.
Randall had 72 strikeouts with just 13 walks in 56.2 innings pitched last year. He can still bring it. I just wonder if he can hit triple digit innings this year. Johnson has never been the most durable pitcher around, with plenty of stints on the disabled list, though to be fair he's also had plenty of full, healthy seasons in his career. But he's going to be 44 this year. On his creaky old back may rest the playoff chances of the Snakes. Unless Webb and Haren are so good that the Snakes don't even need Johnson. We'll see.
'Pen
Valverde, the excellent closer of last season, is gone. But the superb supporting quartet of Cruz, Slaten, Lyon, and Pena are back. Slop up men Nippert and Medders are also back, unless they are cut. But these are back of the bullpen men. It was the front five of the 'pen that were so good for the Snakes last year, and though Qualls has replaced Valverde, the hopeful and naive assumption is that front five figures to be excellent again.
But as jaded baseball fans everywhere are aware, few relievers are a sure thing. Both Lyon and Cruz have multiple +6.0 ERA seasons in their work histories. Pena came up in 2006, was bad, then last year was good. Slaten was a rookie last year: good first year, kid. Now do it again. I'm guessing that two of these four will turn up snake eyes on the snakes and regress into Nippert-land. As for the new guy Qualls, I kind of think the Astros should have just kept him instead of trading him and change for Valverde. I wouldn't be surprised if Qualls is better this year than Valverde, who as recently as 2006 had a 5.84 ERA.
I don't think the Snakes are going to have as good a 'pen this year as last year. This means that the starters have to be much better than last year, which is likely. It also means that the Snakes probably can't depend on having a winning record if they're outscored again.
Summary
As much as I detest the Snakes I guess I'm picking them to finish in first place. This is a team that figures to have a better offense and starting rotation than last year, when they finished first. I think the Dodgers have more potential than the Snakes, but until I see the team run out the strongest lineup they can consistently, and stay mostly healthy, I'm picking the Snakes.
For the record, if I put on my optimistic fan hat I think the Dodgers will win 95 games and take first place.
So here is my projected standings for the NL West:
Snakes --- 90-72
Dodgers --- 89-73
Rockies --- 88-74
Padres --- 82-80
Giants --- 11-150*
*One Giants game is rained out and not made up.
Brandon Tyler Webb
2.84, 3.59, 3.54, 3.10, 3.01: these are the earned run averages of Brandon Webb in the first five years of his career.
3.44, 3.55, 4.34, 4.06, 3.34: these are the ground ball to fly ball ratios of Brandon Webb in the first five years of his career.
12, 17, 21, 15, 12: these are the number of home runs Webb has allowed in each of the first five years of his career.
12, 24, 30, 29, 20: these are the number of ground ball double plays Webb has induced in each of the first five years of his career.
As far as I can tell Webb has never had a serious injury at the big league level in five years.
Daniel John Haren
Haren isn't the extreme ground ball pitcher that Webb is, but he does have better control. And that's all I want to say about Haren. The subject of Webb and Haren being at the top of the Snakes rotation is very depressing one for Dodger fans, especially since it seems like Haren may be the guy who puts the Snakes over the top this year.
Douglas P Davis
I think the Snakes are going to get a 4.5 ERA from Davis this year. The last two years he's basically been a 200 inning, 100 walk, 150 strikeout pitcher, which is serviceable but nothing special. I guess it's possible Davis could recapture his form of 2004 and 2005, when he had the best years of his career with a strikeout to walk ratio of 2:1. If he could do that, the Snakes would have a fearsome rotation. I see no reason to think he will, though. In fact, I think it's more likely that instead of improving he just turns up ineffective this year. Davis is 32 and the trend over the last few seasons isn't good.
Micah Burton Owings
Owings is a much more likely candidate for improvement than Davis. He could end up with a 4.0 ERA, which would be a great number from the back of the rotation. Back when Davis and Owings were the 2 and 3 starters for the Snakes, their rotation didn't look so good. Yes, they won a division with that rotation, but regardless of whatever magic the Snakes were able to put together last year, be it bullpen voodoo or just plain luck, Davis and Owings aren't what you want in your second and third best starting pitchers, especially on a team that isn't so great offensively. But a rotation where Owings and Davis are the 4 and 5 can be very good indeed. Half of that change is getting Haren, and the other half will depend on Randy Johnson being healthy and effective.
You can't realistically expect to win more than half the games Davis and Owings pitch with the offense the Snakes have. So they have to try to win the division with the starters who are better than those two. If that's just Webb, that's going to be pretty hard, as good as he is. If that's Webb and Haren and a healthy Johnson, well --- watch out for the Snakes.
Randall David Johnson
Randall isn't fully healthy yet, or at least he isn't ready to pitch in the regular season yet. But he's getting close. The Snakes will use Edgar Gonzalez in the rotation for the first two weeks, after which Johnson is expected to be ready. Gonzalez is one of those guys who is making the roster as much on the strength of his being out of options than on any excellence he has shown at the big league level.
Randall had 72 strikeouts with just 13 walks in 56.2 innings pitched last year. He can still bring it. I just wonder if he can hit triple digit innings this year. Johnson has never been the most durable pitcher around, with plenty of stints on the disabled list, though to be fair he's also had plenty of full, healthy seasons in his career. But he's going to be 44 this year. On his creaky old back may rest the playoff chances of the Snakes. Unless Webb and Haren are so good that the Snakes don't even need Johnson. We'll see.
'Pen
Valverde, the excellent closer of last season, is gone. But the superb supporting quartet of Cruz, Slaten, Lyon, and Pena are back. Slop up men Nippert and Medders are also back, unless they are cut. But these are back of the bullpen men. It was the front five of the 'pen that were so good for the Snakes last year, and though Qualls has replaced Valverde, the hopeful and naive assumption is that front five figures to be excellent again.
But as jaded baseball fans everywhere are aware, few relievers are a sure thing. Both Lyon and Cruz have multiple +6.0 ERA seasons in their work histories. Pena came up in 2006, was bad, then last year was good. Slaten was a rookie last year: good first year, kid. Now do it again. I'm guessing that two of these four will turn up snake eyes on the snakes and regress into Nippert-land. As for the new guy Qualls, I kind of think the Astros should have just kept him instead of trading him and change for Valverde. I wouldn't be surprised if Qualls is better this year than Valverde, who as recently as 2006 had a 5.84 ERA.
I don't think the Snakes are going to have as good a 'pen this year as last year. This means that the starters have to be much better than last year, which is likely. It also means that the Snakes probably can't depend on having a winning record if they're outscored again.
Summary
As much as I detest the Snakes I guess I'm picking them to finish in first place. This is a team that figures to have a better offense and starting rotation than last year, when they finished first. I think the Dodgers have more potential than the Snakes, but until I see the team run out the strongest lineup they can consistently, and stay mostly healthy, I'm picking the Snakes.
For the record, if I put on my optimistic fan hat I think the Dodgers will win 95 games and take first place.
So here is my projected standings for the NL West:
Snakes --- 90-72
Dodgers --- 89-73
Rockies --- 88-74
Padres --- 82-80
Giants --- 11-150*
*One Giants game is rained out and not made up.
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