08 April 2008

The Ace Excuse

The Dodgers have fared very poorly against the opponents' starting pitching so far this season. It's a worrying trend, but two important things to note: it's very early, and a lot of the starters they've faced have been really tough.

Starter --- 2007 ERA+ --- runs scored

Zito ----------- 98 --- 4
Cain ---------- 122 --- 0
Lincecum ------ 111 --- 1
Germano ------- 91 --- 1
Peavy -------- 159 --- 1
Young -------- 129 --- 2
Haren --------- 137 --- 3

I've listed Lincecum as a starter even though he ended up going 4 innings in the middle of that rain game. His ERA+ from last year probably understates how good he'll be this year. I'd say of the 7 starters the Dodgers have faced so far, only Zito and Germano haven't been elite starters.

Here is the 2007 ERA+ of the remaining two starters in the Arizona series:

Davis ----- 111
Owings --- 109

Grunt. They're not as bad as I had hoped, or thought. It's really hard to know what to expect from Davis, given that this is his last start before cancer surgery. I'm sure the home crowd will be very supportive, and may lift his performance. I don't know. And Owings is a pretty good young pitcher. But still. These guys aren't aces. They aren't even deuces. It's time for the Dodger offense to break out against the starter. They really haven't since Opening Day.

The three runs against Haren last night were encouraging, to be sure, even though only one of them was earned. The Dodgers are going to have to start scoring off of the good pitchers. They're going to face a lot of them this year! Every division rival save the Rockies ( maybe ) has at least two elite pitchers on staff. Most of the division staffs are at least average through the fourth starter. Five elite pitchers in seven days is a lot, but the Dodgers are going to face really tough pitchers in almost half of their division games this year. Time to start making a habit of scoring off of them. It may be Davis and Owings today and tomorrow, but this weekend the Dodgers get Peavy and Young again. Be patient; be disciplined; be aggressive when the pitch is there --- and leave Pierre on the bench.

07 April 2008

NL West Contender Blender: Series Two

The NL West is having its own version of the Final Four this week. The Snakes thumped the Rockies in one semi-final matchup, and the Dodgers edged the Padres in the other semifinal tilt. Now starting today the Snakes and Dodgers play in the finals, with the winner of the series being awarded the title of Very Early ( and not very meaningful ) NL West Favorite.

Given that the Rockies and Snakes came from the back of the pack in the NL West last year to make the playoffs, winning a series early in April maybe isn't that big of a deal. And yet every game does count the same, and there won't be comeback teams every year. As the cliche goes, you don't win the division in April, but you could lose it. The rule of April is don't get buried.

Dodgers --- 4-2
Snakes --- 4-2
Peavys --- 4-3
Rockies --- 1-5
Giants --- 1-5

If this was football the Rockies would already be buried. But it's baseball, and the dirt is only around the Rockies' ankles right now, but still, if they don't start moving at some point they could find themselves in real trouble. The Rockies have looked awful so far. They've been outscored 32 to 10 in their six games. Joe Torre thinks the Dodgers have offensive woes to start the season, and yet they have twice the runs the Rockies do! But the Rockies figure to turn around the offense sooner or later. The real worry for them has to be the starting staff. Francis had his second straight bad start, though technically the first didn't count since it was rained out. Redman was predictably awful. Only Morales turned in a good start in the Snakes series, which is the one good sign the Rockies have had so far this year.

Owings, Gonzales, and Webb each gave the Snakes a great start in Coors field. If either of Owings or Gonzales turns into a solid, slightly above-average pitcher this year the Snakes will be really tough to beat. Owings is probably already a good bet to do so, as he had an ERA+ of 109 last year. For some reason I think of him as a bad pitcher when he really probably isn't. I wonder why? Oh, now I remember. It's because I hate the Snakes --- their uniforms, their hideous stadium, their way too long team name that I usually refuse to use, their old uniforms, their swimming pool, their former managers, the names they taken for their hideous stadium, their career home run leader, and finally that stupid path to the mound at their hideous stadium. I can't believe I picked them to finish in first place.

The Dodgers seem to have the slight edge in the upcoming series with the hated Snakes. The Snakes have a clear advantage in game one, when Haren meets Hendrickson-lite, er, I mean Loaiza. The Dodgers have an almost as clear advantage in game two, when Billingsley faces Davis. And then in the likely rubber match Kuroda faces Owings, a game in which the Dodgers probably don't have as much of an advantage as I think. The series will be in Phoenix, but I still think the Dodgers will edge out the Snakes to win this very early NL West Final Four.

The Rockies are home playing the Braves, while the Padres get the Giants. The Padres also get Cain and Lincecum, while not having either Young or Peavy starting in the series. Do the Giants have a chance of pulling off the series win? With their inept lineup, probably not.

06 April 2008

Journey to Petco

Petco Park feels more like a part of its city than either Dodger Stadium and AT&T field, the only other two major league ballparks I've been to. The tall downtown buildings behind the outfield wall feel so close, as if they're leaning in to watch the game. There's a lot of work being done in this area of San Diego --- we counted three cranes beyond the outfield walls!

The drawback of this location is that getting away from Petco after the game by car is almost impossible. Dodger Stadium may have a bad reputation but Petco is far worse, since to get to a major freeway you have to wade through the relatively narrow gridlocked downtown streets. It appears that Petco gives fans some good public transportation options, at least, but that was no help to us.

I have no doubt now that the overwhelming favorite player of most Padres fans is Jake Peavy. He received by a wide margin the loudest cheers upon introduction of the starting lineup. The crowd was on its feet cheering for a strikeout with two strikes in the first inning. The biggest roar of all occured when Peavy came out to start the ninth inning. It reminded me, a little bit, of being at the Lima playoff game. The situations were so different, and the ability of the pitchers so different, but the excitement and anticipation of the fans was the same.

Peavy was great early, and good until the end, but he wasn't overpowering until the end. The Dodgers hit the ball hard and reached three-ball counts with some regularity later in the game, but nothing ever came together for them. The hard hit balls were swallowed by the defense; the three ball counts were usually overcome by Peavy.

Penny was awful early. After his initial strikeout everything in the first inning was hit hard, all the way to the final hard fly-out by Peavy at which the crowd roared as if it might be a home run. After that inning Penny was better, but never really good, and yet the Padres couldn't score any more off of him. I came away from the game being very impressed by Peavy and not very impressed by the Padres offense, which feasted off Penny when he was terrible and then let him off the hook when he was merely average.

I had fun at the Saturday game, even though it seemed hopeless after just one inning. There were reasons to cheer a few times in the game, and for a moment the ninth inning seemed to have promise before the devil popped up and Martin snuffed the chance with a grounder double play. There were a lot of Dodger fans in attendance, and we even had a "Let's go Dodgers" chant going briefly after Loney doubled. Peavy looked shaky at that moment, but it was a mirage. Peavy is the real deal, and the Dodger fans who voted that Penny is a better pitcher than Peavy in one of those silly cell phone polls in today's game telecast are fooling themselves.

After this weekend I have to say the Padres look very much like a one man team. Young is good, but remains a question mark due to his road work, injury history, and high pitch counts. The rest of the starting pitchers are okay but may not be good enough to carry the at-best average offense. The bullpen looks awful early, and though they will improve you have to wonder if Hoffman might not be done as an elite reliever. Was any Dodger fan all that worried when he came in today in a tie game? I was, truly honestly, expecting the Dodgers to score off of him. And the outfield defense of the Padres is terrible. I was appalled ( and delighted ) when neither of the center or left fielders could cut off the ball that went for Furcal's triple. Loney's double could have been caught too by a better center fielder ( say, Mike Cameron ). So yeah, the Padres don't look all that impressive to me. Except when Peavy starts. Then they're a freaking juggernaut.

04 April 2008

My Knee Jerk Is Wrong

My knee has turned against Russell Martin. He comes up with the bases loaded, a golden opportunity for the golden boy of the Dodger organization, but my knee barks, "double play". That jerk, my knee. It's betraying the rest of me that believes Martin can get a hit, his first of the season. "Double Play!" There's only one out, and it would end the inning. He's done it before --- grounder, flip, throw --- more times than any of us would like. "Admit it," barks my knee. I'm openly talking about a possible double play now, as I watch the game with my wife. My knee jerk has taken over. The little hammer of pessimism has struck. "DOUBLE PLAY!"

I can feel it. The Dodgers are entering one of those stretches. The kind that consumed the team whole at the beginning of last August, when their toothless offense gummed them to death. They let Germano off the hook, with his readable changeup, his minor league fastball. I think dark thoughts for the plate umpire and his unfriendly calls, and other dark thoughts for the hugeness of Petco, but mostly I just lament the Dodgers inability to get the clutch hit. "Timely hitting!" a cliche of a baseball analyst yammers on TV. Defense and pitching and clutch hitting. But above all things, clutch hitting. I don't care if it doesn't really exist, in any measurable sense. The Dodgers still need it. Even just one. One clutch hit. With the bases loaded. By the golden catcher. Please? "Double Play!" my knee barks grimly.

It was the seventh inning, in a 1-1 tie, and relief pitcher Thatcher was on the ropes, jabbed and harried by his own wildness, bases loaded on walks, one to the pitcher even, but he still had the magic sidearm pitch, the pitch that would come in low and seduce the batter into hitting a lovely little two-hopper to the shortstop, easy flip to second and throw to first, a double play. Kemp already did the ground ball thing. And beat the throw, but no matter. The umpires are against us today. Fate is against us. The Dodgers are so patient, a mirror of their manager, or at least the idea of their manager that I have in my mind. Torre, the wise master, patient and zen-like, a Phil Jackson for baseball. Later in the game Torre's players will induce a 200th pitch from the Padre pitchers. "What sound does a two-hundreth pitch make in a cavernous ballpark?" goes the little known baseball zen koan. But now, in the moment of the game, when it will all be decided, patience is not enough. There are no clutch walks. Well, there could be. Martin is up, he's patient, he could walk and bring in a run, in theory. Yeah, the pitcher IS wild. But more likely he would watch strike three go by, the way he's already done at least once before this season. He has to hit the ball. But he doesn't have a hit yet in the season, not one. It seems too much to think he could get his first one here, to break open the game and give Kuroda the lead, a real lead. I want to see it so bad.

Kuroda had pitched such a good debut up to that point, when the game was on Martin's bat. But even in the middle of Kuroda's run of excellence and efficiency my dark pessimistic side couldn't resist a little dig at him. After he got the first eight Padres out I said to my wife, "I can't tell you how many times I've seen a pitcher get the first eight batters and then allow the opposing pitcher to be his first baserunner." Once the count got to 1-2 I reversed myself and confidently said it wouldn't happen this time. Too little, too late. Germano got his little fly ball hit, and thereafter I thought I knew how things would turn out. My knee was twitchy, ready for mischief and dark thoughts. That jerk.

When Martin hit the ball, I thought the second baseman would get it. Just like his previous well-ripped ball that Greene caught. I was SO sure the second baseman would get it that I initially thought it had gone off his glove and then into the outfield. But it was just a base hit. A clean, beautiful base hit. Two runs, not two outs. My knee jerk went quiet. It won't always be double plays and line-outs. The Dodgers are full of talented players. The hits will come, the wins will come, more often than the losses. I hope my knee remembers that.

NL West Contender Blender: Series One

It's a pitching heavy Blender this time around.

Standings:

Padres 3-1
Dodgers 2-1
Snakes 1-2
Rockies 1-2

The Dodgers are in a five-way tie for the wild card right now! That's going to lead to a complicated playoff home field coin-flip if this tie holds up until the end of the season. The only undefeated team left in baseball are the Royals of western Missouri. I don't feel as bad about the Dodgers failing to stay undefeated Wednesday night knowing that, for some reason.

It was a great half-week for bullpen schadenfreude in the NL West. Both Trevor Hoffman and Brandon Lyon blew saves that led to losses for their teams. There's no reason to panic after one blown save, but it's possible that Lyon may not be up for the job, and the Snakes may end up changing closers a few times this year while they try to figure out which of the great relievers of 2007 are up to repeating that performance in 2008.

In the wake of Trevor Hoffman's 4 run meltdown, the following poll appeared on Padres blog Gaslamp Ball:

You're either with Trevor Hoffman or against him. What's it gonna be?

* I stand by my man! I'm with him!
* I side with the terroists! I'm against him!


Hmmm ... I'm going to have to side with the terrorists on this one.

The Padres have had good starts from everyone so far. Fifth starter and possible weak link Germano opens the series with the Dodgers tonight. In his start Peavy was great through a scoreless 7, though he had only 4 strikeouts. The most important pitching line for the Padres was probably Randy Wolf's, with 1 run allowed in six innings, with 5 strikeouts. If Wolf can give the Padres these kinds of starts all year then they're going to do a lot better than the 82-80 record I foolishly predicted for them.

Chris Young was okay in his start. More about him, from Padres blog Ducksnorts:

As for the game, Chris Young’s final line looks decent, but don’t be fooled. His inefficiency has been well documented, and on Tuesday, he added to the legend, throwing 112 pitches in 5 2/3 innings and going to three-ball counts on 8 of the 27 batters he faced.

Sounds like something Kuo or Billingsly might do. Or Penny if he's getting fouled off a lot. The more important goal for Young will just be to stay healthy, I think.

The Rockies had the worst pitching series of anyone. Francis was rocked in his rained out start; Jimenez was wild, with 46 balls in 100 pitches; Cook was just ineffective. Kip Wells did the best of anyone in his fill-in start. The bad news for the Rockies is that so far their starting pitching looks pretty bad, and they haven't even gone to their four and five starters yet! The good news is that it's only three games. But I'm beginning to wonder if the Rockies rotation is really up to the job this year. I don't trust any of these guys except Francis.

The Snakes had decent starts from Haren and Webb, and an awful, wild start from Doug Davis. I don't know how good anyone can expect Davis to be with his cancer surgery coming up. Of course, even if he had never had cancer he is certainly capable of being a bad starting pitcher.

Snakes first baseman Conor Jackson had to come out of Wednesday's game with shortness of breath, and he wasn't in the lineup on Thursday. Doctors suspect the cause is pneumonia.

It's going to be a challenge weekend in the NL West Blender, with the Dodgers visiting the Padres and the Snakes at the Rockies. I'll be at the Saturday game in San Diego --- my first ever trip to Petco Park!

02 April 2008

Run Dodgers Run

Rafael Furcal ran. The spirit of Juan Pierre was in him, in all of the Dodgers last night. They were fast and daring. The Dodgers never hit the ball very hard last night. Not often. Kent had his double, and there were a few other hard hit balls. Most of the hits were in the borderlands. Firmly hit balls, but needing to find a hole or a poor defender to become line drives in the box score. There were at least three sharp grounders to the hole between second and first that became hits. On the last of these, Furcal ran. For a moment Durham filled the hole, but he still failed. The Giants have so many ways they can fail this season. The ball rolled around, outside of Durham's glove. Furcal rounded third, never broke stride. He did what Juan Pierre would have done at his best. The throw came in to first. Young was safe at first. The throw came home. Molina whipped around with the tag. It was already too late. Furcal had scored.

The Dodgers ran up the pitch count against Matt Cain. The spirit of Juan Pierre was not in them. They were patient, worked the count, drew walks. They found success in their failure. Cain was nearly unhittable, but he was not perfect. In the end it made no difference that Pierre started instead of the Bison. Matt Kemp would likely have fared just as poorly against Matt Cain. When it really mattered, the bat was taken away from Pierre and given to Kemp. Who do you trust, with the bases loaded and two outs? Kemp struck out. But it was the right move. And it didn't matter. The Dodgers still had 9 outs to go, and Cain was out of the game. They had already won.

Larry Bowa was run. He seems to be a man in search of anger. His display on the field was disgraceful. The reason for his anger was just as disgraceful. Larry Bowa wasn't standing up for one of his players. He wasn't angry at some injustice done to his team on the field. He was standing up for his own self-importance. He was angry because the rules were, after all, going to apply to him. He has to wear a helmet, and yes, he has to stay in the coaches box. At the end of the game it was Mariano Duncan in the coaches box, waving Furcal around to win the game. The team celebrated their run-off win. Bowa was not a part of it.

Blake DeWitt ran. The spirit of Juan Pierre was in him. He slid into third at the front of a double steal. The throw beat him, but the tag didn't. He was briefly off the bag, but the tag was no longer there. He could have been out, but he wasn't. Speed never slumps. Unless it can't get on base. Unless it can't get off the bench. Unless it does something stupid. DeWitt was safe, but Furcal was not, moments later, after he drove in the tying runs. Two innings before his triumphant run home, Furcal ran himself out rounding first. So it goes with baserunning.

01 April 2008

Bisonshit

I'm not really into using profanity on the blog, but nothing else will suffice for this, I fear. Juan Pierre starts in place of Matt Kemp. There are rational responses to this, I know. Sober perspectives to hold. It's just one game. But --- anger, disappointment, disbelief. That's all I got right now.