Unfair Win Shares are unfair in the same way that baseball is unfair. A baseball game may be subtle and nuanced, with a hundred different small moments and confrontations building toward the conclusion, but when that conclusion comes and the players and crowd disperses, the answer is harsh and binary. You win or you lose. That is horribly unfair. This is the way of nearly all sports, I suppose, but it seems especially poignant in a sport that is famously a game of inches and small moments. Baseball is the opposite of a sausage --- we want to see how it is made --- therein lies the delight --- while the finished product, the shiny W or the leaden L, is a coarse and vacant thing. Yes, even the W --- seeing the score of Dodgers 11, Padres 10 means little without knowing the story of where those numbers came from. The joy of the win is real, yes, but for me it is the joy of a story well told, and the joy of stories yet to come, we hope, in October.
It is crass and unfair, then, to sift three unfair win shares from the story of the effort to win a game --- shares that will be awarded, like championship boxing belts, to players from the winning side. It is cruel and shortsighted to also deny any award to a valiant effort in a losing cause. But it is so --- there are no unfair win shares in a loss. The losers are mute in Valhalla.
Unfair win shares are subjective. That is terribly unfair. They do not turn on any particular numbers, on no impersonal, unbiased and precise formula. Instead they are flavored by context, and bias, and luck. The story of a baseball game is subjective too --- there are things we do not know, could not know, that might alter the received narrative of the game, might change the apparent heroes and villains of the game. We who follow the games do the best with what we see and hear, and this is how it will be with the unfair win shares I write about.
Unfair win shares are not in any way the measure of players. That is what VORP and EQA and real win shares developed by Bill James are for. Unfair win shares are curious and contradictory things --- a statistic derived from a subjective interpretation of 162 individual stories. They answer the question of who did the right thing in the right place in the right time the most often. There is little value is the numbers we may end up with, but perhaps, in the search for those numbers, there is value.
07 April 2009
06 April 2009
Opening Day Unfair Win Shares
Tomorrow will bring the Unfair Win Shares Manifesto. Today brings the first three unfair win shares awarded to Dodger players.
James Loney is a natural candidate for an unfair win share, since he drove in the runs that would put the Dodgers ahead for good. I am swayed against his case by his out at second on the throw to the plate. Runs against Peavy are hard to come by, in general, and outs must not be given away, especially with a dangerous hitter on deck who would be coming up with two runners on. Loney's out at second, while understandable, also matters. I would like for players ( such as Matt Kemp ) to not be buried for baserunning blunders, but I would also like for the all too common out at second on the throw home to not be forgiven so easily. Or maybe forgiven, but not forgotten. Not just shrugged off as if the RBIs are all that matter.
This is too harsh, though. I also remember how Ethier and Manny came up empty before Loney, and how Loney was the only reason the Dodgers even put up the two runs. His single changed the game early. Out at second or not, he has to get an unfair win share.
Kuroda gave up one run through 5.2 innings. That is a worthy effort, and an unfair win share seems indicated for him. To be sure Peavy was in many ways the better pitcher today --- Peavy pitched more innings, and totaled 8 strikeouts to Kuroda's 2. That Peavy gave up more runs is probably mostly a function of the much tougher lineup he faced. But all this is irrelevant since Peavy pitched for the losing team. I am not even sure if Peavy's sometimes nasty stuff and decent performance in terms of runs allowed can even save him from an unfair loss share --- that will come later, though.
Kuroda also benefited from the work of Cory Wade relieving him, and Kemp's diving catch in the field. Without Kemp's diving catch Kuroda is in trouble earlier in the sixth, with fewer than two outs, and at least one run likely scores. Without Wade's strong effort to close out Kouz to end the inning Kuroda might have given up two or three extra runs --- the Dodgers might have lost the game --- and Kuroda might be looking at an unfair loss share instead. It's just too close, his performance too ordinary. The game was saved when Wade got the comebacker. That's how it felt. So Wade gets the second unfair win share, and Kemp gets the third and last, for his great catch in center and his prodigious home run to center.
The losers must be recognized as well, but there isn't much reason to dwell too long on them. It isn't quite fair, but Peavy does get an unfair loss share. After all the runs were allowed on his watch, and he had that error and all. Wade's unfair win share comes at the expense of Kouzmanoff getting an unfair loss share. And I'm afraid Kouz is going to double up and take two unfair loss shares for the game, the second for going hitless in all his other at bats, and leaving two runners stranded in the eighth when he could have tied the game. You could make a case for Blanco but I guarantee you no Padre fan is complaining about him right now. It's all Kouz. If I was a Padre fan I might even feel like giving him all three unfair loss shares, but that would be a bit too unfair.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Loney -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Wade -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )
Peavy -- 1
Kouzmanoff -- 2
James Loney is a natural candidate for an unfair win share, since he drove in the runs that would put the Dodgers ahead for good. I am swayed against his case by his out at second on the throw to the plate. Runs against Peavy are hard to come by, in general, and outs must not be given away, especially with a dangerous hitter on deck who would be coming up with two runners on. Loney's out at second, while understandable, also matters. I would like for players ( such as Matt Kemp ) to not be buried for baserunning blunders, but I would also like for the all too common out at second on the throw home to not be forgiven so easily. Or maybe forgiven, but not forgotten. Not just shrugged off as if the RBIs are all that matter.
This is too harsh, though. I also remember how Ethier and Manny came up empty before Loney, and how Loney was the only reason the Dodgers even put up the two runs. His single changed the game early. Out at second or not, he has to get an unfair win share.
Kuroda gave up one run through 5.2 innings. That is a worthy effort, and an unfair win share seems indicated for him. To be sure Peavy was in many ways the better pitcher today --- Peavy pitched more innings, and totaled 8 strikeouts to Kuroda's 2. That Peavy gave up more runs is probably mostly a function of the much tougher lineup he faced. But all this is irrelevant since Peavy pitched for the losing team. I am not even sure if Peavy's sometimes nasty stuff and decent performance in terms of runs allowed can even save him from an unfair loss share --- that will come later, though.
Kuroda also benefited from the work of Cory Wade relieving him, and Kemp's diving catch in the field. Without Kemp's diving catch Kuroda is in trouble earlier in the sixth, with fewer than two outs, and at least one run likely scores. Without Wade's strong effort to close out Kouz to end the inning Kuroda might have given up two or three extra runs --- the Dodgers might have lost the game --- and Kuroda might be looking at an unfair loss share instead. It's just too close, his performance too ordinary. The game was saved when Wade got the comebacker. That's how it felt. So Wade gets the second unfair win share, and Kemp gets the third and last, for his great catch in center and his prodigious home run to center.
The losers must be recognized as well, but there isn't much reason to dwell too long on them. It isn't quite fair, but Peavy does get an unfair loss share. After all the runs were allowed on his watch, and he had that error and all. Wade's unfair win share comes at the expense of Kouzmanoff getting an unfair loss share. And I'm afraid Kouz is going to double up and take two unfair loss shares for the game, the second for going hitless in all his other at bats, and leaving two runners stranded in the eighth when he could have tied the game. You could make a case for Blanco but I guarantee you no Padre fan is complaining about him right now. It's all Kouz. If I was a Padre fan I might even feel like giving him all three unfair loss shares, but that would be a bit too unfair.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Loney -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Wade -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )
Peavy -- 1
Kouzmanoff -- 2
Opening Hour Live Blog
I'm radio only for the first hour, so I thought I would "live-blog" the opening hour of the season.
4:03 One minute into my first radio broadcast of the year and I am already tired of Steiner. Okay, no, that's not true. Steiner's okay, mostly, I guess. But I still miss Ross Porter.
4:06 Vinny is ready but the Padres aren't. I think when your team is predicted to lose 100 games you don't get to have an elaborate introduction to the team on opening day. Just go out there, put your head down, and lose the game to the Dodgers.
4:09 First pitch. If these times are off, blame my computer.
4:10 Orlando Hudson singles off the first pitch he sees. Impatient fool! You have to work the count. Manny coming up with runners on first and second.
4:12 Two singles, two fly outs. The Dodgers may be on the verge of throwing away a golden opportunity, but Peavy doesn't sound like he's got great stuff out there so far. Maybe Martin can save this inning, but even if not there is reason to be optimistic.
4:15 Every Dodger fan is thinking back to the same moment as Loney comes up with the bases loaded.
4:17 I don't know how to feel right now. The inning-ending RBI base-hit out stretching is always strange. From either side. I guess there's really nothing else reasonable to be but happy.
4:21 Cool, Eckstein sacrifices. Vinny is blaming Bud Black but I'd like to think that was all Eck. The man was born to get the runner over. Give him his due.
4:22 If Bud Black is really serious about playing some small ball he'll have Giles squeeze here.
4:29 Golden Boy Matt Kemp batting!
4:29 What a quick letdown that was as Kemp strikes out. Is that Peavy regaining his form, or Kemp showing is lack of form? Maybe I should relax. It's just one at bat. But one at bat is all Kemp is likely to get while the one hour live blog lasts ... what a disaster!
4:35 Vinny tells the great story about then Padre owner Ray Kroc ripping the Padres over the PA system on opening day 35 years ago. It's a fun story and all, but if he had any guts he would have gone down to the locker room and said it to his players' faces. I would love it if Frank McCourt tried that. Well, no I wouldn't, because that would mean the Dodgers sucked. Maybe he can rip is parking attendants for not getting people parked fast enough.
4:37 Kuroda, like Peavy, restores order in the second. Or maybe it was just the bottom of the Padre lineup sucking. I think even Hendrickson could handle this lineup. Instead as an Oriole he gets to face the Rays, Sox and Yanks all year. Sounds like fun on the bun, Hendrickson.
4:44 Vinny whiffs on his first chance to say "dueces wild" this season. Peavy whiffs on his chance to whiff Manny and instead walks him.
4:48 Ethier singles in Manny and is not thrown out at second. See, Loney? See! I have unalloyed joy now, instead of joy mixed with annoyance at baserunning blunders. My head is not filled with emotional chaos right now. I like this a lot better.
4:50 My wife just emailed me with the news that little Cesar Izturis hit a homerun against the Yankees! That just made my day. I hope the Dodgers can make it for me again by winning. Then Michigan State can make it again for good measure. And Jack Bauer too --- the more day-makings the merrier!
4:51 Ethier thrown out stealing. Well, nice try, but Loney's out at second is still more annoying. But if you make an error in the next half inning then you can pull ahead of him.
4:54 I hate to admit this but I just tuned out Vinny's story about someone not speaking English. Even Vinny nods, you might say. No? Yeah, I guess that was me nodding. Off.
4:57 A non-Ecksteinian batter sacrifices a man over for the Padres.
5:01 I'm headed home with Eckstein on deck, so that ends the live blog. I'm all broken up about missing his at bat, but I'm sure I'll read about his exciting bunt and scrappy dash toward first tomorrow.
4:03 One minute into my first radio broadcast of the year and I am already tired of Steiner. Okay, no, that's not true. Steiner's okay, mostly, I guess. But I still miss Ross Porter.
4:06 Vinny is ready but the Padres aren't. I think when your team is predicted to lose 100 games you don't get to have an elaborate introduction to the team on opening day. Just go out there, put your head down, and lose the game to the Dodgers.
4:09 First pitch. If these times are off, blame my computer.
4:10 Orlando Hudson singles off the first pitch he sees. Impatient fool! You have to work the count. Manny coming up with runners on first and second.
4:12 Two singles, two fly outs. The Dodgers may be on the verge of throwing away a golden opportunity, but Peavy doesn't sound like he's got great stuff out there so far. Maybe Martin can save this inning, but even if not there is reason to be optimistic.
4:15 Every Dodger fan is thinking back to the same moment as Loney comes up with the bases loaded.
4:17 I don't know how to feel right now. The inning-ending RBI base-hit out stretching is always strange. From either side. I guess there's really nothing else reasonable to be but happy.
4:21 Cool, Eckstein sacrifices. Vinny is blaming Bud Black but I'd like to think that was all Eck. The man was born to get the runner over. Give him his due.
4:22 If Bud Black is really serious about playing some small ball he'll have Giles squeeze here.
4:29 Golden Boy Matt Kemp batting!
4:29 What a quick letdown that was as Kemp strikes out. Is that Peavy regaining his form, or Kemp showing is lack of form? Maybe I should relax. It's just one at bat. But one at bat is all Kemp is likely to get while the one hour live blog lasts ... what a disaster!
4:35 Vinny tells the great story about then Padre owner Ray Kroc ripping the Padres over the PA system on opening day 35 years ago. It's a fun story and all, but if he had any guts he would have gone down to the locker room and said it to his players' faces. I would love it if Frank McCourt tried that. Well, no I wouldn't, because that would mean the Dodgers sucked. Maybe he can rip is parking attendants for not getting people parked fast enough.
4:37 Kuroda, like Peavy, restores order in the second. Or maybe it was just the bottom of the Padre lineup sucking. I think even Hendrickson could handle this lineup. Instead as an Oriole he gets to face the Rays, Sox and Yanks all year. Sounds like fun on the bun, Hendrickson.
4:44 Vinny whiffs on his first chance to say "dueces wild" this season. Peavy whiffs on his chance to whiff Manny and instead walks him.
4:48 Ethier singles in Manny and is not thrown out at second. See, Loney? See! I have unalloyed joy now, instead of joy mixed with annoyance at baserunning blunders. My head is not filled with emotional chaos right now. I like this a lot better.
4:50 My wife just emailed me with the news that little Cesar Izturis hit a homerun against the Yankees! That just made my day. I hope the Dodgers can make it for me again by winning. Then Michigan State can make it again for good measure. And Jack Bauer too --- the more day-makings the merrier!
4:51 Ethier thrown out stealing. Well, nice try, but Loney's out at second is still more annoying. But if you make an error in the next half inning then you can pull ahead of him.
4:54 I hate to admit this but I just tuned out Vinny's story about someone not speaking English. Even Vinny nods, you might say. No? Yeah, I guess that was me nodding. Off.
4:57 A non-Ecksteinian batter sacrifices a man over for the Padres.
5:01 I'm headed home with Eckstein on deck, so that ends the live blog. I'm all broken up about missing his at bat, but I'm sure I'll read about his exciting bunt and scrappy dash toward first tomorrow.
Predictions
When I think about what predictions I would make for the season, my first thought is to say that I just don't know what will happen. How can I say anything when I am nearly certain to be wrong?
Joe Morgan used to refuse to make predictions in his chats, and the authors of Fire Joe Morgan would take him to task for this dereliction of duty. Making predictions was supposed to be a part of his job, I suppose. I always felt just a little sympathy for Little Joe, because saying you don't know what will happen really is the most accurate answer. Even if it's also an annoying answer, and perfectly obvious. We love predictions even though we know they are wrong. So make them already!
Sometimes we go back and check predictions but this is never a serious exercise with consequences for being wrong. Usually predictions are just forgotten, especially the ones that turn out wrong. The appeal of predictions is that they capture the feeling of the present moment. I predict that the Dodgers will make the playoffs. This is less a statement about a future state of the Dodgers and more a statement about how I perceive the team now, how I feel about the team now. When I watch the opening day game this afternoon I will be watching a good team play a terrible team. Though perhaps the Padres aren't terrible with Peavy on the mound. But after today ...
Predictions let us pick out the favorites from the underdogs. Predictions fill the void of all the 0-0 records at the beginning of the season. Any game I watch it helps me to know what kind of game it is --- David v. Goliath, or Clash of the Titans, or Battle of the Bottomfeeders. When the Cubs take the field today they take the field as a team already in first place, even though they are tied with everyone else at 0-0. This is a good team --- according to most predictions. I don't think so, though. No, thinking has little to do with this. I don't feel so. It's the feeling of powerful memory, mostly. Memory of the hapless Cubs from the playoffs last year. I was there when they fell to the broom last year. It's that memory, and also Fukudome, who I don't think even played in the game I was at. He was terrible last year, and why would that change? And Soriano, who is like milk about to turn sour. When the speed begins to go, and the strikeout start coming a little more often, suddenly you have an 0.300 OBP hole at the top of your lineup.
Do the Dodgers have players who could suddenly turn sour on them? The Dodgers are young, mostly, so it's not a huge worry. But there's always Manny. I worry about his health, a little, but a lot of other people worry about his head. I think this is nonsense. What argument is there that Manny is going to be a problem? It happened before, yes. But there still needs to be a reason for it to happen again. I don't see that reason out there. Some say he'll be upset with his contract soon enough. But Manny controls his current contract, and his next one. There's nothing for him to get out of, no club-option years weighing him down. He's in the best city on earth for his personality. Manny's head will be fine. That's my third prediction. And last. It's time to play ball.
Joe Morgan used to refuse to make predictions in his chats, and the authors of Fire Joe Morgan would take him to task for this dereliction of duty. Making predictions was supposed to be a part of his job, I suppose. I always felt just a little sympathy for Little Joe, because saying you don't know what will happen really is the most accurate answer. Even if it's also an annoying answer, and perfectly obvious. We love predictions even though we know they are wrong. So make them already!
Sometimes we go back and check predictions but this is never a serious exercise with consequences for being wrong. Usually predictions are just forgotten, especially the ones that turn out wrong. The appeal of predictions is that they capture the feeling of the present moment. I predict that the Dodgers will make the playoffs. This is less a statement about a future state of the Dodgers and more a statement about how I perceive the team now, how I feel about the team now. When I watch the opening day game this afternoon I will be watching a good team play a terrible team. Though perhaps the Padres aren't terrible with Peavy on the mound. But after today ...
Predictions let us pick out the favorites from the underdogs. Predictions fill the void of all the 0-0 records at the beginning of the season. Any game I watch it helps me to know what kind of game it is --- David v. Goliath, or Clash of the Titans, or Battle of the Bottomfeeders. When the Cubs take the field today they take the field as a team already in first place, even though they are tied with everyone else at 0-0. This is a good team --- according to most predictions. I don't think so, though. No, thinking has little to do with this. I don't feel so. It's the feeling of powerful memory, mostly. Memory of the hapless Cubs from the playoffs last year. I was there when they fell to the broom last year. It's that memory, and also Fukudome, who I don't think even played in the game I was at. He was terrible last year, and why would that change? And Soriano, who is like milk about to turn sour. When the speed begins to go, and the strikeout start coming a little more often, suddenly you have an 0.300 OBP hole at the top of your lineup.
Do the Dodgers have players who could suddenly turn sour on them? The Dodgers are young, mostly, so it's not a huge worry. But there's always Manny. I worry about his health, a little, but a lot of other people worry about his head. I think this is nonsense. What argument is there that Manny is going to be a problem? It happened before, yes. But there still needs to be a reason for it to happen again. I don't see that reason out there. Some say he'll be upset with his contract soon enough. But Manny controls his current contract, and his next one. There's nothing for him to get out of, no club-option years weighing him down. He's in the best city on earth for his personality. Manny's head will be fine. That's my third prediction. And last. It's time to play ball.
01 April 2009
Lost Spring
This is a my April Fool's joke. A post on the blog that never gets new posts any more.
It's been a lost spring training for Dodgerama. That's all I can say. My wife and I have bought a house, and between moving and unpacking and getting the massive garden ready there just hasn't been time to write about the Dodgers' spring training adventures. This is not any great loss, I will admit. Dodger Thoughts and the rest of the Dodger blogs have Spring Training scoped out from every angle.
I've seen one Dodger game this spring. Part of one. It was bonus coverage on Prime Ticket using the Fox Sports NW feed, so I didn't even get a Dodger announcer. But I saw Manny hit his so far only home run of spring, and I got to see Kershaw mowing down Mariner batters, so I picked the right few innings to see Dodger action, I guess. The only way it could have been better is if Kemp hit a triple or something.
I've never been able to get into spring training. You know how the final innings of a blowout game have no edge to them? Every inning of spring training is like that. Spring training is like All-Star game snub controversies. You know how those things go --- people act like it matters and have fun with it but then forget it like it never happened the day after the All-Star game. The truth is no one ever refers to anything that happened in spring training once the regular season starts.
Do you believe that? It's not true, even though I want it to be true. Make a top ten list of memorable Dodger events from 1986 and Pedro Geurerro's disastrous spring training slide has to be on it. I don't think Kershaw's "public enemy number one" strike three curve ball looking last spring would crack a 2008 top ten, but it sure was memorable. People have noted that the first signs of Andruw awfulness to come were evident in spring training last year. So --- I guess I am forced to admit that spring training really does matter, at least a little bit. Yeah, I have missed something, even if I'd like to tell a different story about what's gone on the last few weeks.
It's been a lost spring training for Dodgerama. That's all I can say. My wife and I have bought a house, and between moving and unpacking and getting the massive garden ready there just hasn't been time to write about the Dodgers' spring training adventures. This is not any great loss, I will admit. Dodger Thoughts and the rest of the Dodger blogs have Spring Training scoped out from every angle.
I've seen one Dodger game this spring. Part of one. It was bonus coverage on Prime Ticket using the Fox Sports NW feed, so I didn't even get a Dodger announcer. But I saw Manny hit his so far only home run of spring, and I got to see Kershaw mowing down Mariner batters, so I picked the right few innings to see Dodger action, I guess. The only way it could have been better is if Kemp hit a triple or something.
I've never been able to get into spring training. You know how the final innings of a blowout game have no edge to them? Every inning of spring training is like that. Spring training is like All-Star game snub controversies. You know how those things go --- people act like it matters and have fun with it but then forget it like it never happened the day after the All-Star game. The truth is no one ever refers to anything that happened in spring training once the regular season starts.
Do you believe that? It's not true, even though I want it to be true. Make a top ten list of memorable Dodger events from 1986 and Pedro Geurerro's disastrous spring training slide has to be on it. I don't think Kershaw's "public enemy number one" strike three curve ball looking last spring would crack a 2008 top ten, but it sure was memorable. People have noted that the first signs of Andruw awfulness to come were evident in spring training last year. So --- I guess I am forced to admit that spring training really does matter, at least a little bit. Yeah, I have missed something, even if I'd like to tell a different story about what's gone on the last few weeks.
16 March 2009
Manny Maladies
By the time of July it might not be his legs. It might be his oblique, or his elbow, or his wrists, or his feet, or his knees. The knees and feet are parts of the legs, but different from the part that hurting now. It could be anything, and nothing would be a surprise. Manny is old. They say old age starts at 27. Those scientists are just finding out what baseball fans have known for a long time. Manny is ancient!
No amount of good attitude can cure the physical ailments. It's not the mood that makes Manny a risk. It's the maladies. The lingering aches and strains the don't heal like they used to. Their is going to be a day when he pulls up lame around third base as he's trying to score from second on a single. There's already been the day when he hurts himself running down a ball to the outfield. He's going to need more days off then Martin, and it's going to be even harder to give them to him than it is to give them to Martin. How can you voluntarily give up his bat for even a game?
Disaster is always a moment away when Manny plays. Injury can strike at any time. The Dodgers are contenders with Manny, mediocrities without him. That's the setup, and don't dare argue with it. That's how the masses feel. Manny puts the capital D in Dodgers. That's the man they talk about, that's the man who makes our team relevant again. With him we're annointed masters of the NL West. When the injury comes it will be like old times again, when the Dodgers are just another team and the victories come hard. When. Why not "if"? Isn't 25 million enough to buy an "if" on the injury? But money don't buy love ... or health.
And yet ... a Manny injury needn't be inevitable. Yeah. He's rounding into shape now, that's all. Spring straightening. Oh dear. I'm mixed up, my writing and metaphors all tangled with my doubts. Let's just say it's either rounding or straightening, but not both, whichever metaphor is less likely to hurt him.
There will be a day when Manny comes up to the plate and hits a prodigious home run, and there isn't a thought anymore about his age or money or attitude or injuries or worries or contracts or deferred payments --- there will only be awe and delight in the moment. That's the antidote to worry.
No amount of good attitude can cure the physical ailments. It's not the mood that makes Manny a risk. It's the maladies. The lingering aches and strains the don't heal like they used to. Their is going to be a day when he pulls up lame around third base as he's trying to score from second on a single. There's already been the day when he hurts himself running down a ball to the outfield. He's going to need more days off then Martin, and it's going to be even harder to give them to him than it is to give them to Martin. How can you voluntarily give up his bat for even a game?
Disaster is always a moment away when Manny plays. Injury can strike at any time. The Dodgers are contenders with Manny, mediocrities without him. That's the setup, and don't dare argue with it. That's how the masses feel. Manny puts the capital D in Dodgers. That's the man they talk about, that's the man who makes our team relevant again. With him we're annointed masters of the NL West. When the injury comes it will be like old times again, when the Dodgers are just another team and the victories come hard. When. Why not "if"? Isn't 25 million enough to buy an "if" on the injury? But money don't buy love ... or health.
And yet ... a Manny injury needn't be inevitable. Yeah. He's rounding into shape now, that's all. Spring straightening. Oh dear. I'm mixed up, my writing and metaphors all tangled with my doubts. Let's just say it's either rounding or straightening, but not both, whichever metaphor is less likely to hurt him.
There will be a day when Manny comes up to the plate and hits a prodigious home run, and there isn't a thought anymore about his age or money or attitude or injuries or worries or contracts or deferred payments --- there will only be awe and delight in the moment. That's the antidote to worry.
05 March 2009
Think I'll Go Eat Worms
If Juan Pierre was a free agent right now, what kind of contract could he get?
A short one. Probably a half year contract, if such a thing was allowed. I guess the closest thing to that is a non-guaranteed minor league deal with an invite to spring training and a bonus if the player makes the opening day roster. Now I do think there are plenty of teams out there for which Pierre would easily make the opening day roster. There are maybe a few where he would makes sense as a starter, given the other options. But no team is going to reach out eagerly for him, thinking he is the difference-maker. No one is going to say to Pierre, "we really want you".
One year guaranteed would be Pierre's best case scenario. There just isn't any question about that, not when Orlando Hudson only gets a one year deal with half the money contingent upon playing time, not when Adam Dunn only gets two years. So when the Dodgers invite Pierre and his agent to pursue a trade of Pierre to another team, my first thought is that there is no way this can happen. Pierre has three years left on his deal. No matter how much of his contract the Dodgers consume, the team acquiring him is looking at a three year commitment. Hell, not even Manny gets three years.
I suppose that if the Dodgers devoured enough of his contract, the acquiring team could look at his acquisition as a one-year commitment. If another team is willing to pay Pierre 4 million for one year ( a high price ), then the Dodgers could make the trade if they paid all but 4 million of his remaining guaranteed money. Then the last two years of Pierre's contract would be gravy for the acquiring team --- they could either keep him for free after the first year, or just release him at no additional cost if something better came along.
That's a very high price for the Dodgers to pay just to get rid of Pierre. Though the price to keep him is even higher.
These moments must be soul-crushing for Juan Pierre. Waiting, all winter and into spring, for his final benching to come. It came yesterday when Manny was signed. He says he understands it, but does that ease the sting? And now looking for a job, looking for another team to want him. The Dodgers can't even be bothered to look for a trade partner. He has to do it himself. He has his money, but that doesn't feed the soul or make the days bright. It doesn't buy out the humiliation. But in the end he does have the money, and that's a lot more than a lot of people have right now.
Colletti made a terrible mistake two years ago, but Pierre did as well. Pierre's mistake was one almost anyone would make, but that doesn't change what it is. He could never live up to the contract. It was a lie from the beginning, two men fooling each other across the table. It was always going to end badly. There was never, ever, ever any question of that. Andruw Jones and Jason Schmidt might have earned their money in the end if things had gone differently. There was potential with them for great things, even if there were also ominous warning signs. But there was never any of that potential with Pierre. His contract was a sunk cost from day one. And now he must realize it in some way. The sadness of his quotes about the situation shows that.
The contract is the part of the game I hate. I don't want to spend an offseason wondering if Manny will be back because of negotiations over his contract. I don't want to worry about Martin and Kemp and Ethier and Billingsley and Kershaw leaving years from now because the Dodgers can't offer them a large enough contract. I don't want the money they make be as important a stat as home runs or on-base percentage. The contract distorts the game. The contract invites rogues like Scott Boras into baseball. It pits fans against the players they once loved. It breaks hearts.
But there's no getting away from it. There is no professional baseball without player contracts. So we live with it. And when the games begin, when the everyday rhythm of wins and losses come again, we can almost forget it.
A short one. Probably a half year contract, if such a thing was allowed. I guess the closest thing to that is a non-guaranteed minor league deal with an invite to spring training and a bonus if the player makes the opening day roster. Now I do think there are plenty of teams out there for which Pierre would easily make the opening day roster. There are maybe a few where he would makes sense as a starter, given the other options. But no team is going to reach out eagerly for him, thinking he is the difference-maker. No one is going to say to Pierre, "we really want you".
One year guaranteed would be Pierre's best case scenario. There just isn't any question about that, not when Orlando Hudson only gets a one year deal with half the money contingent upon playing time, not when Adam Dunn only gets two years. So when the Dodgers invite Pierre and his agent to pursue a trade of Pierre to another team, my first thought is that there is no way this can happen. Pierre has three years left on his deal. No matter how much of his contract the Dodgers consume, the team acquiring him is looking at a three year commitment. Hell, not even Manny gets three years.
I suppose that if the Dodgers devoured enough of his contract, the acquiring team could look at his acquisition as a one-year commitment. If another team is willing to pay Pierre 4 million for one year ( a high price ), then the Dodgers could make the trade if they paid all but 4 million of his remaining guaranteed money. Then the last two years of Pierre's contract would be gravy for the acquiring team --- they could either keep him for free after the first year, or just release him at no additional cost if something better came along.
That's a very high price for the Dodgers to pay just to get rid of Pierre. Though the price to keep him is even higher.
These moments must be soul-crushing for Juan Pierre. Waiting, all winter and into spring, for his final benching to come. It came yesterday when Manny was signed. He says he understands it, but does that ease the sting? And now looking for a job, looking for another team to want him. The Dodgers can't even be bothered to look for a trade partner. He has to do it himself. He has his money, but that doesn't feed the soul or make the days bright. It doesn't buy out the humiliation. But in the end he does have the money, and that's a lot more than a lot of people have right now.
Colletti made a terrible mistake two years ago, but Pierre did as well. Pierre's mistake was one almost anyone would make, but that doesn't change what it is. He could never live up to the contract. It was a lie from the beginning, two men fooling each other across the table. It was always going to end badly. There was never, ever, ever any question of that. Andruw Jones and Jason Schmidt might have earned their money in the end if things had gone differently. There was potential with them for great things, even if there were also ominous warning signs. But there was never any of that potential with Pierre. His contract was a sunk cost from day one. And now he must realize it in some way. The sadness of his quotes about the situation shows that.
The contract is the part of the game I hate. I don't want to spend an offseason wondering if Manny will be back because of negotiations over his contract. I don't want to worry about Martin and Kemp and Ethier and Billingsley and Kershaw leaving years from now because the Dodgers can't offer them a large enough contract. I don't want the money they make be as important a stat as home runs or on-base percentage. The contract distorts the game. The contract invites rogues like Scott Boras into baseball. It pits fans against the players they once loved. It breaks hearts.
But there's no getting away from it. There is no professional baseball without player contracts. So we live with it. And when the games begin, when the everyday rhythm of wins and losses come again, we can almost forget it.
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