06 May 2009

The Princes of the National League: Game 28 Unfair Win Shares

Max Scherzer loses again. He's got to be feeling Dodgerbit. He went six full innings, and knocked a hit and scored an run in an effort to help his own cause, but it wasn't enough. The Snakes just aren't good enough right now.

If the Snakes are ever going to challenge the Dodgers this season they will have to do a lot better offensively. Take Justin Upton, for example. He's turned things around after a horrible first few weeks, and now has an on base percentage of 0.356. That's fine, especially for a super-talented young player who just figures to get better. What's not fine is that it's the third best OPS on the team among players with at least 50 PA. 494 of the Snakes 994 plate appearances ( nearly half ) have gone to players with an OBP of less than 0.300. There are automatic outs up and down the Snake lineup.

You could say that the Snakes miss Orlando Hudson, and I'm sure they do, but second base is one spot where they haven't seen much of a drop-off. The new second baseman Felipe Lopez has been the Snakes' best position player, with Upton a close runner-up. The Snakes miss the production they used to get from their current players, and in some cases the production they thought they would get from their current players. Chad Tracy isn't anything like the hitter he was in 2005. Connor Jackson is having an even worse start to the season than Russell Martin. These guys combined to go 0-8 and leave 9 runners left on base. They get two of the unfair loss shares. Shortstop Wilson gets the other one mostly for his run-allowing error in the first inning.

The past few years I've often been a skeptic when it comes to the Snakes offense and how good it could really be, but I don't think they are this bad. Still, the gap between the Dodgers and Snakes offense is so wide, and the difference in the standings so steep that it's hard to imagine the Snakes overcoming the Dodgers this season. But, you know. It's baseball. The sport that brought us the Braves of 1914, and the Miracle Mets, and 1988, and the Rays of last year, so who knows? Maybe I should imagine harder.

Hmmm.

Naahh.

Back to the Dodgers. What can be said? There they are, born to be kings, the princes of the National League.

Another day I might have visited the unfairness of Weaver getting an unfair win share for yesterday's five inning start and Stults getting nothing for his five and change inning start in game 27. Or asked why Broxton and Belisario should put an unfair loss share on the line ( if they had pitched poorly ) but have no real chance at an unfair win share because they pitched only one inning each. Or considered Hudson's 1-4 day at the bat and 2-3 day with the leather, and pondered if the good of that really outweighed the bad. Or wondered if Ethier was really worthy of an unfair win share after his really shaky defensive first inning. But not today.

Who wants to think about such minutae when the Dodgers are 20-8. I'd give the whole team unfair win shares if it was allowed.


Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Hudson -- 1
Weaver -- 1
Ethier -- 1

Unfair Loss Shares ( Snakes )

Wilson -- 1
Tracy -- 1
Jackson -- 1

05 May 2009

Rolling Down the Imperial Highway Toward Game 28

I was asked to explain why Byrnes got an unfair loss share for last night's game. Well, it's because he's a red-headed punk. He's a big, nasty, red-headed punk. Say, perhaps he's the big nasty red-head at our side as we roll down the Imperial Highway! No, I think that's supposed to be a woman. And yet there's nothing in the song that says it has to be a woman, is there? Now I'm confused. ( Edit: I just realized the red-head is probably the "girl" referenced in the first ( rarely heard ) verse, so I guess it is made explicit in the song. )

The reality is batting unfair loss shares are often especially cruel and unfair. There was no obvious situation last night where a Snake batter failed to come through, no moment where the game was blown by some batter afflicted with lumber slumber. It felt like a Dodger blowout for most of the night even if the score was never that lopsided, so it's hard to point to any one guy and say he's why the Snake offense failed. I could give all the loss shares to the Snake pitchers, but 2 was enough for them. They weren't that bad. I looked at Chris Young, who had a typically awful Chris Young night full of strikeouts and wasted potential, and in the first draft he was it. But then I turned to Byrnes after I realized he had left three men on base, including a groundout in the top of the sixth when the Snakes had their last real look at the game. It's possible that I just switched to Byrnesey because I'm biased against him or something, but I can honestly say I'm equally biased against both Byrnes and Young. You can throw in Reynolds and Drew in there too.

I like the Dodgers' chances tonight, if only because Snake pitcher Max Scherzer doesn't last long into games. He's averaging about 5 innings a start this year, after averaging the same last year. He's like an Eric Stults who doesn't share a confusingly similar name with an obscure actor. Scherzer is right up there in Kershaw-land with 4.4 pitches per plate appearance. You really need to be at 4.0 or below to pitch deep into games. Billingsley is at 4.0. Johan Santana is at 3.9. League average is about 3.85. Even Stults is just a little above 4.0, but he has other problems. Kershaw and McDonald ( 4.35 ) are the Dodgers most in need of lowering their pitches per batter ratios.

I wonder how a pitcher goes about lowering his pitches per plate appearance? You could pitch to contact, but what does that mean, other than serving up balls down the middle of the plate to be deposited in the outfield seats? "Yeah, boy that was some good contact I pitched into!" No, no. I guess you lower your pitches per plate appearance by having better command, throwing fewer balls, hitting the corners more often. You know, just by being a better pitcher.

Anyway, Scherzer is pretty good but he doesn't go deep into games, and his career record is 0-6, so the Dodgers better win and not let him get his first career win. That would suck.

I love LA: Game 27 Unfair Win Shares

Hate New York City
It's cold and it's damp
And all the people dressed like monkeys
Let's leave Chicago to the Eskimos
That town's a little bit too rugged
For you and me you bad girl


That is the never heard first verse of "I love LA" by Randy Newman. Never heard at Dodger Stadium, anyway. They really ought to play that first verse whenever the Dodgers beat the Mets or Cubs. And Newman should be approached to write a dismissive verse for every other NL city as well. What could he say bad about San Diego, though? Other than it being full of Padre fans I can't think of anything wrong with San Diego.

Does Newman get a royalty payment for each play of this song at Dodger Stadium, or is it a flat fee for the entire season? I'd like to think that he gets paid by play, so that the more the Dodgers win the more they owe him. Maybe someone in accounting is starting to fret because the team is going way over on the "Newman Royalty Budget". The Dodgers weren't supposed to win every game, he's thinking desperately. The budget will be destroyed if they go 81-0!

The main culprit in the Dodgers' budget busting start has been the outfield, who gobble up all the unfair win shares for last night's game. That head accountant guy is probably putting horns and little evil goatees on their pictures right now. Even Pierre! Heck, Pierre should actually grow a goatee. ( If he can. ) It would make him look tougher. He'd probably draw more walks. A pitcher would take one look at him and think, "Uh oh, I'd better not throw strikes to him. He has a home run goatee." Hey, it worked for Jayson Werth. He's a badass power hitter with his goatee thing. Without it he's just some smooth-faced strikeout dude.


Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Manny -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Kemp -- 1

Unfair Loss Shares ( Snakes )

Davis -- 1
Rauch -- 1
Byrnes -- 1

edit: hey, I skipped ahead a few games. I had yesterday as game 29 instead of game 27. Fixed.

04 May 2009

Game 26 Unfair Win Shares

The bottom of the first

That was when Gaudin lost the game before he was even in the game. Eight pitches, none of them taken for a ball. Eight pitches, two strikes looking, two foul offs, and four base hits. If you're wild out of the strike zone, your defeat will be slow and agonizing. You'll have time to ponder your fate and hope for reprieve as you slowly fill the bases on walks. If you're wild out over the middle of the plate, you fate is already upon you. "They ambushed me," said Guadin after the game. Perhaps. But maybe you also weren't ready.


The top of the sixth

That was when the Padres had their look at the game. Billingsley was wild: he had walked two and thrown a wild pitch. His two outs in the inning had come on three ball counts. He had thrown only 10 strikes in the 24 pitches in the inning. The bases were loaded. This was the moment when the Padres could strike.

Instead, three pitches later, Nick Hundley had struck out and the Padres were left grasping at nothing. From the Dodgers perspective, that's just Billingsley being clutch. But from the Padres perspective, what is it? I don't know.


The bottom of the sixth

We see it so often. A pitcher is hit early, then settles down, then is hit late again and knocked out of the game. By the end of it his numbers look pretty bad, but for those middle innings he was actually pitching well. What does Gaudin take from this game? That he mostly pitched well, but was beat by a good offensive team? But look at the guys who got hits off of him in the sixth inning rally, and he can't really think that. Maybe he shouldn't think about the game at all.


Bud Black is spared his third pointy-haired loss share, since he didn't really have a chance to muck things up, but he's still going to come in for some more needling for his strange bullpen usage. Here is a section from an article on Padres.com about Bell not being used recently:

Bell was up and throwing in the bullpen in both games but didn't appear in either. On Friday, it was Duaner Sanchez who walked in the winning run. Then Saturday, it was rookie Luke Gregerson who allowed the game-winning hit in the 10th inning.

"There are times when you can bring him in," Black said. "There's a time when you bring a guy in based on the freshness of the other members of the bullpen. It can be a dangerous situation if you do it all the time. On the road, you still need to get the last three outs of the game."


But if you rely on Luke Gregerson in a tie game you don't have to worry about those last three outs at all, right Bud?


Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Billingsley -- 1
Pierre -- 1
Hudson -- 1

Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )

Gaudin -- 2
Hundley -- 1

03 May 2009

Game 25 Unfair Win Shares

Bud Black once again left his best reliever in the pen while a lesser pitcher lost the game for him. But Bell will be fresh and ready to go for the save today after Gaudin outpitches Billingsley.

Troncoso was the pitching hero, and the only Dodger pitcher to make the unfair win shares podium. Wolf was good but not for long enough, and the mess he left tells against him ( though he nearly snuck onto the podium thanks to his set-up of the first Dodger run ). Wade was good, but life's unfair sometimes, and Mota was lucky.

The Dodger offensive heroes are somewhat obvious. The Padre goats are also obvious, especially Kouzmanoff.

Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Troncoso -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Furcal -- 1

Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )

Gregerson -- 1
Kouzmanoff -- 1
Hairston -- 1

Pointy-Haired Loss Share ( Padres )

Bud Black -- 1

02 May 2009

Game 24 Unfair Win Shares

How did Jake Peavy outpitch Clayton Kershaw? Let me list the ways.

Peavy threw 69% of his pitches for strikes; Kershaw only got 61% of his pitches over the plate.

Peavy went 8 innings; Kershaw went 7.

Peavy allowed 3 baserunners; Kershaw allowed 6.

Peavy struck out 8; Kershaw 3.

Peavy faced a lineup that has an OPS on the season of 0.808 and allowed no runs; Kershaw faced a lineup with 0.740 OPS and allowed ... no runs.

So yeah, Peavy was by a fair margin the better pitcher yesterday. I think I'd even say that if Manny had managed to pop a solo shot out of the park at some point. But Kershaw was good enough to keep the Dodgers even. And Peavy wasn't strong enough, or efficient enough, or something enough to go nine innings, and so the game was lost once he was out of the way. I'm not saying Peavy bears any blame for "only" going 8 innings, or that Bud Black did anything wrong when he pulled Peavy after 115 pitches. I think Bud Black did something wrong in bringing in Duaner Sanchez instead of Heath Bell. The game is on the line, Bud. If the Dodgers score it's over, so why not go to your best reliever who has had two full days of rest? That's a Pointy-Haired loss share for you, Bud. I'm happy to award it. I just hope I don't have to award one of these to Torre for the exact same offense later in the season. I fear I will.

Kershaw still needs to have better control. That's what got him into trouble in Houston and Colorado and it's what nearly got him into trouble in the fourth inning last night. That said it was really really REALLY reassuring to see him come back with a good outing. Even a great outing, judging just by the results. I just hope he doesn't turn into an early career Ervin Santana pitcher: great at home, lousy on the road. I suppose I should see what he does in a non-hitters road park first, I guess, before panicking.

Kershaw will get two of the unfair win shares, since there's just about no one else to give them to. Poor Peavy gets none, because his team lost. Allow me to chuckle gleefully at this for a moment. ( I really don't like Peavy. Every time he pitches against the Dodgers I'm rooting for Mariano Duncan to run onto the field and tackle him or something. ) So who gets the last spot on the podium next to Kershaw and his clone? I'm going with Ohman's clutch eighth inning mop up of Belisario's mess. Martin's walk was good but it comes up just short.

Before I go, I have to wonder if that game was the dullest walk-off win game ever. I'm NOT saying that game was dull, as games go. I like pitching duels, and just because no one is scoring doesn't mean nothing is happening. But when the only run of the game comes on a bases loaded walk --- you have to wonder. But there is also this: There was about an inch of checked swing between the win and extra innings. That call of "no swing" was about as exciting as a walk will ever get, I guess.

Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Kershaw -- 2
Ohman -- 1

Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )

Sanchez -- 1
Headley -- 1
Eckstein -- 1

( Headley had one hit but he also had a terrible game, with a double play and multiple runners stranded in scoring position. )

Pointy-Haired Loss Share

Black -- 1

01 May 2009

Party Like It's Twenty Zero Five: Game 23 Unfair Win Shares

Yeah!

The Dodgers start out 15-8, and Jeff Weaver is pitching for them --- it's like 2005 all over again! Fabulous! I can't wait for all the injuries, and for the Ja(y)sons to show up and infiltrate the lineup.

Actually, I wouldn't mind it if Jayson Werth came back. No wait, I take that back. We don't need Jayson Werth --- he couldn't crack this lineup of all +0.975 OPS sluggers. Werth is even being outhit by little Juan Pierre this year, though, you know. I mean, you know. But I won't say it out loud, and let Pierre have his moment in the sun. He's been a good fourth outfielder this year.

I'm really resisting giving Weaver an unfair win share. I know who he is, okay? But it's hard to ignore four scoreless relief innings that stabilized the game, especially when there are four strikeouts involved, because that would seem to indicate that it wasn't all luck. But it sure seemed like a lot of it was luck. He needed some fine plays behind him to keep his run column clean.

The problem for Weaver is there are so many offensive heroes who are clamoring for a spot on the podium. Kemp is the only one whose place is assured because he brought the defense as well as the offense yesterday, though the way he heedlessly charges around out there he's this close to becoming the next Repko. He almost turned Hudson into the next Furcal. Still, it's so much fun to watch Kemp play the outfield. It's also a little bit scary. He's like selfish-Kobe out there, so talented, so driven, and so untrusting of his teammates to catch the ball.

I guess I just can't deny Weaver. Then it becomes a battle between Hudson and Manny, and Manny wins because his home run went farther and he was involved in more rallies than Hudson. Kind of.


Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Kemp -- 1
Manny -- 1
Weaver -- 1

Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )

Hundley -- 1
Gregerson -- 1
Mujica -- 1