I got the five runs I wanted, in the end. Those are five of the most frustrating and delirious runs I've ever seen the Dodgers score. I mean, they could have had five way before they did, but in the end, would I really want it any other way?
Game 109 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Ethier -- 3
After the seventh inning, I considered giving Ethier an unfair loss share if the Dodgers went on to lose. Manny made the last out in that inning to strand two runners, but Ethier's failure in that inning was just as damaging. In the end I decided against giving Ethier an unfair loss share for his meek flyout in the seventh, pending further developments. The triple and run scored had to count for something, even if the triple was kind of lucky. Now if Ethier had hit into a double play in the seventh inning, he would have put himself in peril.
It's strange, but though I worried about the double play in the seventh inning when Ethier came up, I didn't even think about it in the ninth inning. It just seemed like destiny that he would hit his home run. More than any other of Ethier's walk off hits this year, I expected the one last night. It was just such a perfect, fitting ending, to leave Manny happily stranded in the on-deck circle, not even needed, as Ethier circled the bases. It was the perfect moment to pass the torch of best Dodger hitter, and it happened. Now maybe Manny is still the best, but I think it's clear now that it's not by much. You can't say it's Manny and the rest of the Dodgers anymore. No sir.
Game 109 Unfair Loss Shares ( Braves )
Soriano -- 3
I look at the Braves, and think, wow, this is a good team. They have good hitters up and down the lineup, and a solid starting staff. But they're only one game above 0.500. How can that be?
Maybe it's the bullpen, which blew the game last night. But that's not it, not really. In spite of last night's meltdown Soriano has been pretty good this year. And the Braves 'pen has a whole has been about league average.
I think the explanation is that the offense used to have plenty of holes in it, most of which they've now patched up with all of their recent acquisitions. Maybe if they had started the year with this team they would have a shot at the division, but now, they are fairly well hopelessly buried, too far back of the Phillies, too far back of the wild card, unless they really go on a tear.
Is it right to give Soriano all three unfair loss shares? Probably not. Both Prado and McCann were 0-5, and maybe if either of those hitters had done something the Braves would have entered the ninth with a much more secure lead. But the feeling of that game to me is that the Braves had held off the Dodgers through eight innings, and they had the win, they really had it. Think of all the hard work and all the escapes the Braves had through eight innings, and then it was gone just like that on one pitch. Soriano lost it all by himself on one pitch. Or maybe Ethier took it away from Soriano all by himself, but in the end it amounts to the same thing.
07 August 2009
06 August 2009
Thirst Quencher
I think I speak for more than a few Dodger fans when I say that even more than the possibility of Manny coming up in the ninth inning I was looking forward to Ethier coming up. Manny was the secondary hope of that inning, and not just because of his undeniable slump, but because Ethier has been so good. Could it be that Ethier is, right now, a better hitter than Manny? I don't know what the stats say, what reason says, but the game-winning home run says yes. Tonight belongs to the home run, so Ethier moves to the top.
In the ninth inning Braves closer Soriano kept stumbling backwards and never could find his balance. First he fell behind to Pierre, then ran the count full, then hit a patch of bad luck when Pierre hit a dying roller up the third base line. Then Furcal hit a bounding ball just out of reach of the first baseman. Another bit of iffy luck. And then Soriano missed on his first two pitches to Ethier. That was all it took. Just like that Soriano and the Braves were doomed, and the Dodgers had won. It can happen so fast, so easily. A little bit of bad luck, a few pitches that miss their location, and then a catch-up in the count pitch that streaks low over the heart of the plate ...
... right into the waiting arms of Ethier's teammates as they mob him after the knock-off home run.
In the ninth inning Braves closer Soriano kept stumbling backwards and never could find his balance. First he fell behind to Pierre, then ran the count full, then hit a patch of bad luck when Pierre hit a dying roller up the third base line. Then Furcal hit a bounding ball just out of reach of the first baseman. Another bit of iffy luck. And then Soriano missed on his first two pitches to Ethier. That was all it took. Just like that Soriano and the Braves were doomed, and the Dodgers had won. It can happen so fast, so easily. A little bit of bad luck, a few pitches that miss their location, and then a catch-up in the count pitch that streaks low over the heart of the plate ...
... right into the waiting arms of Ethier's teammates as they mob him after the knock-off home run.
Stay Thirsty, My Dodgers
Schmidt's confrontation against pitcher Braden Looper with two runners on and two outs in the second inning was typical of his first three innings of work. Schmidt got the first two strikes, then nibbled to 3-2, then realizing the horrible folly of perhaps walking the pitcher, he grooved a fat pitch down the middle that Looper ripped to left field, where Pierre barely made a semi-leaping catch. Schmidt looked completely overmatched ( against a pitcher! ) but still more or less got the job done, and that's how it was through three innings. Then in the fourth it all came apart. It was just a matter of time until the Brewers broke through.
Schmidt will get at least one more start, and he may get several more after that, but it's just a matter of time before he is bumped from the rotation as well. To me Stults seems like the obvious candidate, and McDonald and Elbert wouldn't be bad choices either. I'd even give Weaver another shot.
I'm worried about the offense. One 17 run game doesn't impress me. Well, actually, it does impress me a lot. What I mean is that I don't take it as a sign that there is nothing wrong with the offense. It just seems a little too easy for opposing pitchers to have good games against the Dodgers lately. But I want to give this thing another week before hitting a panic button. If the Dodgers can score 5 runs in 3 out of 4 games this weekend against Atlanta then I'll be happy.
Game 108 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Schmidt -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Game 108 Unfair Win Shares ( Brewers )
Braun -- 1
Looper -- 1
Lopez -- 1
Schmidt will get at least one more start, and he may get several more after that, but it's just a matter of time before he is bumped from the rotation as well. To me Stults seems like the obvious candidate, and McDonald and Elbert wouldn't be bad choices either. I'd even give Weaver another shot.
I'm worried about the offense. One 17 run game doesn't impress me. Well, actually, it does impress me a lot. What I mean is that I don't take it as a sign that there is nothing wrong with the offense. It just seems a little too easy for opposing pitchers to have good games against the Dodgers lately. But I want to give this thing another week before hitting a panic button. If the Dodgers can score 5 runs in 3 out of 4 games this weekend against Atlanta then I'll be happy.
Game 108 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Schmidt -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Game 108 Unfair Win Shares ( Brewers )
Braun -- 1
Looper -- 1
Lopez -- 1
05 August 2009
The Manny Slump
Right before last night's game started, my wife asked me if I thought the Dodgers would win.
Usually I would answer such a question with a yes, but not this time. I just didn't have a good feeling about the game. So I said no. I said I thought the Dodgers would lose.
Maybe I should say that more often.
One of the reasons I felt pessimistic about last night's game was the slump Manny is in. Was in? Manny had a great game last night, and finally picked up some runs batted in, but one game doesn't necessarily convince me a slump is over. The rule of slumps is not to overreact to them. Don't give up on a player because he's in a slump, or panic, or conclude the worst. Don't take a sample size of two weeks as if it means a whole lot. Well, the same caution applies to a one game sample, such as the game Manny had last night.
I think the perfect time to talk about a player's slump is after he's had a good game, because then you won't get too negative on that player.
In 54 plate appearances since he was hit on the hand ( and including the souvenir slam game ) Manny has 10 hits, 5 walks, and 13 strikeouts. It's the strikeouts and walks that jump out at me. It seems as if Manny has been taking a lot of strikes lately, and swinging through a lot of pitches he normally would hit well. It's almost like he's been trying to force his way into good hitter's counts.
There are a lot of theories about Manny's slump. His hand is bothering him, or he's gone off the juice and is feeling the effects, or it's that time of the month for him ( I kid, I kid! ) but the truth about most slumps is that they accept no theory. They just are, and then they go away, and all is well again.
This Manny slump just feels more dire than most slumps because we've never seen Manny slump as a Dodger before this, and because there are a couple of obvious theories for the slump out there that nag at the mind even if they are rejected, and because he's just looked so bad during the slump. Sometimes I thought I was watching a different hitter. If I still feel that way in two weeks then I'll really worry. For now, I hope last night marked the return of the old Manny.
Whenever the Dodgers have a really high scoring game I like to list all the players who had plate appearances in the game along with their totals of runs scored plus runs driven in. Here they are:
Kemp -- 8
Ethier -- 5
Manny -- 5
Martin -- 4
Blake -- 4
Loretta -- 3
Furcal -- 2
Pierre -- 1
Loney -- 1
Mota -- 1
Kuroda -- 0
Castro -- 0
Poor Loney had a terrible game. He was 0-4 with three strikeouts, but at least he walked once and scored. Otherwise he would suffer the fate of Castro, who has to suffer the ignomy of trailing Mota and his one RBI on the list.
But mostly this list is all positives. Kemp was the standout, but Manny, Martin, Blake and Ethier also had great games. Loretta, Pierre and Mota also did well in limited action.
Game 107 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Blake -- 1
Kuroda -- 1
Back when the game was in doubt, Kuroda did just enough to keep his team ahead. It was the bare minimum, but it was enough. He stayed low on JJ Hardy with the bases loaded in the fourth inning and got a borderline check-swing strikeout, then got Kendall to ground out. He couldn't escape the fifth inning unscathed, but at least after Braun and Fielder did their damage he was able to escape again with more ground balls. If Kuroda gives up even one more run in that inning to let the Brewers tie, I'm not so sure the Dodgers go on to romp.
Kemp had a monster game, and he did enough of his damage early with the game still in doubt that he gets a share. The last goes to Blake, who jumps over Manny and Martin who had more prolific games because Blake's double in the first inning was the key hit for the early run scoring.
Game 107 Unfair Loss Shares ( Brewers )
Gallardo -- 2
Hardy -- 1
I think the whole game changes for the Brewers if Hardy can get a bases loaded hit in the fourth inning. Instead he struck out ( and was hitless otherwise ) and the Brewers failed to score in that inning, which meant their rally in the fifth came up short of giving them the lead, which meant Gallardo was left in the game a little longer than he might have if the Brewers had a lead, which meant the Brewers got blown out.
Laugher Share
Mota -- 1
Mota may have moved up in the bullpen pecking order ( though Sherrill coming over in trade may have pushed him back down a bit again ) but when the Dodgers have a double digit lead Mota is still your man. Mota clinched his laugher share with an absurd RBI single to really rub salt in the Brewer's wounds.
And then he hit Prince Fielder and turned the end of the game and the aftermath into a farce that overshadowed the Dodgers nice rout, so once again I have to take a laugher share away from Mota. At least he didn't aim at his head.
Usually I would answer such a question with a yes, but not this time. I just didn't have a good feeling about the game. So I said no. I said I thought the Dodgers would lose.
Maybe I should say that more often.
One of the reasons I felt pessimistic about last night's game was the slump Manny is in. Was in? Manny had a great game last night, and finally picked up some runs batted in, but one game doesn't necessarily convince me a slump is over. The rule of slumps is not to overreact to them. Don't give up on a player because he's in a slump, or panic, or conclude the worst. Don't take a sample size of two weeks as if it means a whole lot. Well, the same caution applies to a one game sample, such as the game Manny had last night.
I think the perfect time to talk about a player's slump is after he's had a good game, because then you won't get too negative on that player.
In 54 plate appearances since he was hit on the hand ( and including the souvenir slam game ) Manny has 10 hits, 5 walks, and 13 strikeouts. It's the strikeouts and walks that jump out at me. It seems as if Manny has been taking a lot of strikes lately, and swinging through a lot of pitches he normally would hit well. It's almost like he's been trying to force his way into good hitter's counts.
There are a lot of theories about Manny's slump. His hand is bothering him, or he's gone off the juice and is feeling the effects, or it's that time of the month for him ( I kid, I kid! ) but the truth about most slumps is that they accept no theory. They just are, and then they go away, and all is well again.
This Manny slump just feels more dire than most slumps because we've never seen Manny slump as a Dodger before this, and because there are a couple of obvious theories for the slump out there that nag at the mind even if they are rejected, and because he's just looked so bad during the slump. Sometimes I thought I was watching a different hitter. If I still feel that way in two weeks then I'll really worry. For now, I hope last night marked the return of the old Manny.
Whenever the Dodgers have a really high scoring game I like to list all the players who had plate appearances in the game along with their totals of runs scored plus runs driven in. Here they are:
Kemp -- 8
Ethier -- 5
Manny -- 5
Martin -- 4
Blake -- 4
Loretta -- 3
Furcal -- 2
Pierre -- 1
Loney -- 1
Mota -- 1
Kuroda -- 0
Castro -- 0
Poor Loney had a terrible game. He was 0-4 with three strikeouts, but at least he walked once and scored. Otherwise he would suffer the fate of Castro, who has to suffer the ignomy of trailing Mota and his one RBI on the list.
But mostly this list is all positives. Kemp was the standout, but Manny, Martin, Blake and Ethier also had great games. Loretta, Pierre and Mota also did well in limited action.
Game 107 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Blake -- 1
Kuroda -- 1
Back when the game was in doubt, Kuroda did just enough to keep his team ahead. It was the bare minimum, but it was enough. He stayed low on JJ Hardy with the bases loaded in the fourth inning and got a borderline check-swing strikeout, then got Kendall to ground out. He couldn't escape the fifth inning unscathed, but at least after Braun and Fielder did their damage he was able to escape again with more ground balls. If Kuroda gives up even one more run in that inning to let the Brewers tie, I'm not so sure the Dodgers go on to romp.
Kemp had a monster game, and he did enough of his damage early with the game still in doubt that he gets a share. The last goes to Blake, who jumps over Manny and Martin who had more prolific games because Blake's double in the first inning was the key hit for the early run scoring.
Game 107 Unfair Loss Shares ( Brewers )
Gallardo -- 2
Hardy -- 1
I think the whole game changes for the Brewers if Hardy can get a bases loaded hit in the fourth inning. Instead he struck out ( and was hitless otherwise ) and the Brewers failed to score in that inning, which meant their rally in the fifth came up short of giving them the lead, which meant Gallardo was left in the game a little longer than he might have if the Brewers had a lead, which meant the Brewers got blown out.
Laugher Share
Mota may have moved up in the bullpen pecking order ( though Sherrill coming over in trade may have pushed him back down a bit again ) but when the Dodgers have a double digit lead Mota is still your man. Mota clinched his laugher share with an absurd RBI single to really rub salt in the Brewer's wounds.
And then he hit Prince Fielder and turned the end of the game and the aftermath into a farce that overshadowed the Dodgers nice rout, so once again I have to take a laugher share away from Mota. At least he didn't aim at his head.
04 August 2009
The Nature of an Ace
It's hard to think of guy who can suddenly lose his control as an ace. I guess it's not just about the ERA or even the innings pitched. There is a psychological component to the the concept of the pitching ace. Aces make a fan feel secure, and walks make a fan feel like the very structure of the game is crumbling. Baseball is about the ball being put into play, about the battle between pitcher and batter, batter and fielder, so when the hitters just watch pitches go by and trot around the bases without any fight it is unsettling. It's like someone gave the other team a cheat code. That's what the coaching signs really are. Cap, cap, belt, belt, left arm, right arm, left arm, right arm, Belly Button, Adam's Apple.
I still consider Kershaw an ace because if I didn't I think that would be a huge overreaction. There is no perfect pitcher. They will all have a poor outing occasionally. But the walks more than anything else shake confidence. Maybe it was an overreaction to call Kershaw an ace in the first place. Maybe he's an ace in training.
Fortunately it doesn't matter one bit what he gets called.
Game 106 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Kershaw -- 1
Weaver -- 1
Manny -- 1
Oh Manny.
Well you came up and we hoped you weren't faking.
But they sent you away, oh Manny.
Well you missed it and flied out to Bill Hall
With the bases left loaded oh Manny.
If only Ray King had been playing right field.
Game 106 Unfair Win Shares ( Brewers )
Braun -- 2
Parra -- 1
Braun was the butter and sugar man, going 4-5 with 3 RBIs and 2 runs scored. Parra was the yeast, rising to the occasion against a tough offensive team. Hoffman almost let the cake fall in the ninth inning, but in the end the sweet treat of a win for Brewer fans was salvaged. To Dodger fans it tastes like dust. Dussssst!
I still consider Kershaw an ace because if I didn't I think that would be a huge overreaction. There is no perfect pitcher. They will all have a poor outing occasionally. But the walks more than anything else shake confidence. Maybe it was an overreaction to call Kershaw an ace in the first place. Maybe he's an ace in training.
Fortunately it doesn't matter one bit what he gets called.
Game 106 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Kershaw -- 1
Weaver -- 1
Manny -- 1
Oh Manny.
Well you came up and we hoped you weren't faking.
But they sent you away, oh Manny.
Well you missed it and flied out to Bill Hall
With the bases left loaded oh Manny.
If only Ray King had been playing right field.
Game 106 Unfair Win Shares ( Brewers )
Braun -- 2
Parra -- 1
Braun was the butter and sugar man, going 4-5 with 3 RBIs and 2 runs scored. Parra was the yeast, rising to the occasion against a tough offensive team. Hoffman almost let the cake fall in the ninth inning, but in the end the sweet treat of a win for Brewer fans was salvaged. To Dodger fans it tastes like dust. Dussssst!
03 August 2009
Matt Kemp, Singles Hitter
It's true! Singles make up 73% of Matt Kemp's hit total, while singles make up only 66% of the average major league hitter's hit total. He's like Juan Pierre out there! ( Not really. Pierre is at 79% singles this year, and it's usually higher than that. )
Kemp collected two more singles last night. Not bad. One of them drove in two runs. He had another hit of some kind, but that other hit doesn't fit into my narrative, so I'm going to ignore it.
Why exactly is Kemp a singles hitter? Kemp's speed helps him collect a few extra leg singles, but that same speed will also help him turn a few singles into doubles, so that's probably a wash. I don't have an explanation other than that he just hits it hard all over the place when he's not striking out. Hard liners, hard ground balls, hard fly balls. Kemp hits a respectable amount of home runs and doubles, and draws a respectable number of walks. It's all the extra singles that have turned him into an outstanding offensive player this year. Add in the great glovework in center and you have one of the top players in the game.
Saturday's game:
Game 104 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Martin -- 1
Wolf -- 1
Martin's poor Saturday is what I remember, but I think maybe Matt Kemp was even worse. Sunday's hero was 0-4 on Saturday, with a strikeout to end the game, a strikeout with a runner on second, a strikeout with runners on first and third and one out, and a strike --- no, strike that, a ground out fielder's choice in his first at bat, but he was picked off! I think that might have been Kemp's worst offensive game this season.
I'm still pondering the deeper nature of Martin's attempted pick off throws to first base. I lean toward the ego theory of these throws, that they are a way of showing off, a way to stating that he is one of the elite defensive catchers in the game, because one of the things elite catchers do is gun down incautious runners at first base. I can't remember the last time Martin got one of these runners. That, by itself, doesn't make it a poor play --- maybe he can take away some of the secondary lead with his throws to first, or the threat of them. Maybe. But I think they are unnecessary, an affectation, an indulgence. Whatever they are, his throw to first was costly on Saturday, but not as costly as his drop of Ethier's great throw a play later, when the tying run came in and the go-ahead run was set up at second base. Wolf was unlucky in the inning, but he still gave up the hits that led to the runs, so I'm not sparing him.
Game 104 Unfair Win Shares ( Braves )
Jones -- 1
McClouth -- 1
Soriano -- 1
Sunday's game:
Game 105 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 2
Billingsley -- 1
I think home runs to dead center are the most impressive home runs to watch. They are so pure, so symmetric. And there are no cheapies to dead center. You really have to hit it to clear a center field wall. Andre Ethier is the more prolific home run hitter, but I think Kemp has more pure power when he hits them.
I liked Billingsley start enough to give him the unfair win share, even though he had to leave after five. I try not to hold it against him that he would have given up 20 runs if allowed to pitch the sixth.
Game 105 Unfair Loss Shares ( Braves )
Jurrjens -- 1
Jones -- 1
Anderson -- 1
To echo the comments of announcers and other observers, it really is weird to see Garrett Anderson in an uniform other than Angels. And then I see his performance last night and his OBP of 0.322 on the year and I understand why the Angels let him go. On second thought, no I don't, since his career OBP is just 0.327. The Angels were apparently happy to live with that from their left fielders for years and years. I guess his defense and power made up for that. Anderson was with the Angels for so long that when he came up they were still called the California Angels.
Kemp collected two more singles last night. Not bad. One of them drove in two runs. He had another hit of some kind, but that other hit doesn't fit into my narrative, so I'm going to ignore it.
Why exactly is Kemp a singles hitter? Kemp's speed helps him collect a few extra leg singles, but that same speed will also help him turn a few singles into doubles, so that's probably a wash. I don't have an explanation other than that he just hits it hard all over the place when he's not striking out. Hard liners, hard ground balls, hard fly balls. Kemp hits a respectable amount of home runs and doubles, and draws a respectable number of walks. It's all the extra singles that have turned him into an outstanding offensive player this year. Add in the great glovework in center and you have one of the top players in the game.
Saturday's game:
Game 104 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Martin -- 1
Wolf -- 1
Martin's poor Saturday is what I remember, but I think maybe Matt Kemp was even worse. Sunday's hero was 0-4 on Saturday, with a strikeout to end the game, a strikeout with a runner on second, a strikeout with runners on first and third and one out, and a strike --- no, strike that, a ground out fielder's choice in his first at bat, but he was picked off! I think that might have been Kemp's worst offensive game this season.
I'm still pondering the deeper nature of Martin's attempted pick off throws to first base. I lean toward the ego theory of these throws, that they are a way of showing off, a way to stating that he is one of the elite defensive catchers in the game, because one of the things elite catchers do is gun down incautious runners at first base. I can't remember the last time Martin got one of these runners. That, by itself, doesn't make it a poor play --- maybe he can take away some of the secondary lead with his throws to first, or the threat of them. Maybe. But I think they are unnecessary, an affectation, an indulgence. Whatever they are, his throw to first was costly on Saturday, but not as costly as his drop of Ethier's great throw a play later, when the tying run came in and the go-ahead run was set up at second base. Wolf was unlucky in the inning, but he still gave up the hits that led to the runs, so I'm not sparing him.
Game 104 Unfair Win Shares ( Braves )
Jones -- 1
McClouth -- 1
Soriano -- 1
Sunday's game:
Game 105 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 2
Billingsley -- 1
I think home runs to dead center are the most impressive home runs to watch. They are so pure, so symmetric. And there are no cheapies to dead center. You really have to hit it to clear a center field wall. Andre Ethier is the more prolific home run hitter, but I think Kemp has more pure power when he hits them.
I liked Billingsley start enough to give him the unfair win share, even though he had to leave after five. I try not to hold it against him that he would have given up 20 runs if allowed to pitch the sixth.
Game 105 Unfair Loss Shares ( Braves )
Jurrjens -- 1
Jones -- 1
Anderson -- 1
To echo the comments of announcers and other observers, it really is weird to see Garrett Anderson in an uniform other than Angels. And then I see his performance last night and his OBP of 0.322 on the year and I understand why the Angels let him go. On second thought, no I don't, since his career OBP is just 0.327. The Angels were apparently happy to live with that from their left fielders for years and years. I guess his defense and power made up for that. Anderson was with the Angels for so long that when he came up they were still called the California Angels.
01 August 2009
That Movie with Jack Nicholson and Kathy Bates
I'm rooting for him, even if I've mostly given up on him. After his awful start I said it was down to a 1% chance that he could really come back, and that percentage has to go up after his six inning scoreless start, though I'm not sure by how much. That's so cruel. Why can't he just be praised for the magnificent results provided by that start? What is it that makes people find faults, look for reasons to doubt?
I'd love to be wrong. I'm not upset I was wrong about Mota. ( Though I am also mindful that by the end of the year my initial assessment of him could still prove out. I hope not. ) I never thought the Dodgers would get what they got from Pierre while Manny was out. I never thought Schmidt could give the Dodgers six scoreless innings on the road, especially after what we saw in his first two starts. And he did it. That's great.
Let's be fair to everyone. Fair to Schmidt, and not pull him down after his great start. And fair to Stults, too. That's the hard part. I'm still not convinced Schmidt is any more deserving of the fifth spot in the rotation than Stults. All those walks and fly balls Schmidt gave up don't make Schmidt's start any less praise-wrothy, but they do change what we should expect from him in the future. On some other day if you walk 5 and give up lots of fly balls there will probably be at least one three run home run. It's a dangerous way to pitch. I wish it wasn't so but it is. As fine as that start is he's going to have to improve if he's going to be effective over the long run. I don't know if I succeeded in not pulling down Schmidt here. I don't want to, but I also don't want to say things I don't believe. At the very least we saw some real improvement in his last start. It wasn't all him getting lucky. Maybe he can build on this, reduce the walks, reduce the fly balls, and sustain these kind of results. I don't give it high odds, but it could happen. The good thing is that Schmidt knows he was a little lucky in Atlanta; he knows he has to improve.
None of this matters very much to the Dodgers chances this year, unless the teams behind them ( 8 games behind ) surge and make a race of it in which every start really matters, or unless one of the front four starters goes down for the postseason we all hope the Dodgers go to. The Dodger 'pen is so stacked that it doesn't figure any fifth starter will be used as a long man in the playoffs.
I'm going to let the positive have the last word here. After my entry on Schmidt's previous start in which he was bombed, the following anonymous comment appeared in response to me basically giving up on Schmidt:
i SO wanted him to succeed. i was introduced to Los Amigos Group (AA recovery)right around the time he went down & it changed my life, nobody believed i would sober up just like nobody believes Schmidt can come back...
I would say, whatever else happens with Schmidt, he has come back. Six scoreless innings in Atlanta is not something I ever expected to see out of him this year. That's something to be proud of, no matter what else happens. I really have no idea what AA is like but I'm pretty sure you take what victories you can find and don't listen to naysayers.
Game 103 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Schmidt -- 2
Ethier -- 1
I almost have one to the new Sherrill in town, but in the end I went with the sentimental choice. And big kudos to Ethier for his home run. It's about time these guys started hitting home runs again.
Game 103 Unfair Loss Shares ( Braves )
McClouth -- 1
McCann -- 1
Hanson -- 1
Other Braves had worse offensive days than McCann, but those other guys didn't leave the bases loaded.
I'd love to be wrong. I'm not upset I was wrong about Mota. ( Though I am also mindful that by the end of the year my initial assessment of him could still prove out. I hope not. ) I never thought the Dodgers would get what they got from Pierre while Manny was out. I never thought Schmidt could give the Dodgers six scoreless innings on the road, especially after what we saw in his first two starts. And he did it. That's great.
Let's be fair to everyone. Fair to Schmidt, and not pull him down after his great start. And fair to Stults, too. That's the hard part. I'm still not convinced Schmidt is any more deserving of the fifth spot in the rotation than Stults. All those walks and fly balls Schmidt gave up don't make Schmidt's start any less praise-wrothy, but they do change what we should expect from him in the future. On some other day if you walk 5 and give up lots of fly balls there will probably be at least one three run home run. It's a dangerous way to pitch. I wish it wasn't so but it is. As fine as that start is he's going to have to improve if he's going to be effective over the long run. I don't know if I succeeded in not pulling down Schmidt here. I don't want to, but I also don't want to say things I don't believe. At the very least we saw some real improvement in his last start. It wasn't all him getting lucky. Maybe he can build on this, reduce the walks, reduce the fly balls, and sustain these kind of results. I don't give it high odds, but it could happen. The good thing is that Schmidt knows he was a little lucky in Atlanta; he knows he has to improve.
None of this matters very much to the Dodgers chances this year, unless the teams behind them ( 8 games behind ) surge and make a race of it in which every start really matters, or unless one of the front four starters goes down for the postseason we all hope the Dodgers go to. The Dodger 'pen is so stacked that it doesn't figure any fifth starter will be used as a long man in the playoffs.
I'm going to let the positive have the last word here. After my entry on Schmidt's previous start in which he was bombed, the following anonymous comment appeared in response to me basically giving up on Schmidt:
i SO wanted him to succeed. i was introduced to Los Amigos Group (AA recovery)right around the time he went down & it changed my life, nobody believed i would sober up just like nobody believes Schmidt can come back...
I would say, whatever else happens with Schmidt, he has come back. Six scoreless innings in Atlanta is not something I ever expected to see out of him this year. That's something to be proud of, no matter what else happens. I really have no idea what AA is like but I'm pretty sure you take what victories you can find and don't listen to naysayers.
Game 103 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Schmidt -- 2
Ethier -- 1
I almost have one to the new Sherrill in town, but in the end I went with the sentimental choice. And big kudos to Ethier for his home run. It's about time these guys started hitting home runs again.
Game 103 Unfair Loss Shares ( Braves )
McClouth -- 1
McCann -- 1
Hanson -- 1
Other Braves had worse offensive days than McCann, but those other guys didn't leave the bases loaded.
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