12 August 2009

Shock

I let myself imagine it, almost as a counter to what I knew was coming. I didn't think it would really happen. I thought for sure Lincecum would get that last strike, and walk off the mound triumphant. He certainly deserved it, as those things go, given the brilliance of his entire outing.

I let the words play in my mind as Ethier stood at the plate with two strikes on him --- line drive single, and Furcal around third, and the throw is ... NOT IN TIME! Dodgers tie it! When Ethier hit a ball down toward first base, I thought that imaginary call was as close I would get to that sweet tying single, but no, it was foul. Still alive. I'm reminded of a much more important at bat, Kirk Gibson's duel against Dennis Eckersley in the 1988 World Series, when Gibson fouled off a pitch down toward first base that just went foul. In that moment when you think the ball might be fair, and an easy final out, the game is OVER, if only for a moment, in the mind. It's a weird feeling to come out of.

When Ethier actually singled and drove in Furcal I was shocked. I'm still shocked, right now, as the Dodgers turn a double play to finish off the Giant rally in the ninth inning and send the game to extras. Though I expect I'm not as shocked as Giants fans. If the Giants go on to lose, they will only have their own bad offense ( and some bad luck ) to blame. Sure, the Dodgers threw out an effective patchwork of relievers, but I have to think the Giants will look back and feel that they should have scored more than two runs in their nine innings. How could the Dodger backup squad battle the Giant ace and reigning Cy Young to a draw?

Whatever the outcome of this game, I feel that the Dodgers reasserted their alpha status in the NL West. That is a welcome feeling after the way the Braves series ended.

Team Triple Crowns

It's really hard to win the batting triple crown. Everyone knows that. Hasn't been done since 1967.

It's so hard that even winning the triple crown on your own team is hard. Only three players lead their own team in home runs, RBIs and batting average this season. Here they are:

Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Pablo Sandoval, Giants

That's some hall of fame company the Kung Fu Panda is in. And he's not just winning the Giant triple crown because his teammates are so inept offensively. He has a very good traditional line of -- 0.330 -- 17 -- 68. So far Sandoval hasn't hurt the Dodgers much, with just two singles in eight trips to the plate. We'll see what Weaver and the relievers can do against him today.

Kemp and Ethier split the Dodger honors in the triple crown categories, by the way, with Kemp leading in batting average and Ethier leading in RBIs and home runs. Manny is ahead of Kemp in batting average but he doesn't have enough plate appearances to qualify. If Manny hadn't missed those 50 games he probably would be winning the Dodger team triple crown.

Finally, here are some shockingly low team leaders in the triple crown categories. When you see this you can understand how these teams have had such disappointing years.

Mets, home runs --- Gary Sheffield, 10 ( Injuries are the reason for this. )

Pirates, runs batted in --- Andy LaRoche, 41 ( Brother Adam had 40 with the Pirates )

Padres, batting average --- David Eckstein, 0.264 ( Gwynn is hitting 0.290, Hairson 0.299, but neither qualifies )

Advantage Dodgers

The last two games the Giants have shown the side that prompted me to call them "not a good team" some weeks ago. Their offense has done nothing and their pitchers not named Cain or Lincecum have proved vulnerable to a good hitting.

I think now I would go along with the notion that the Giants are a "slightly good" team. Giants hitters are still getting on base at a lower rate than Giants pitchers allow ( which is really incredible when you realize how good the Giant staff has been ) and the run differential is just a lukewarm +28, but --- the offense is somewhat improved with the additions of Sanchez and Garko, and having those two undoubted aces in Cain and Lincecum does count for a little extra, I think. The Giants are 30-16 when either one of those pitchers starts for them this year. Make no mistake, whether the team as a whole is good or not, the Dodgers are facing a truly elite team today when Lincecum starts.

The Dodgers have actually hit Lincecum fairly well this year in two tries. Lincecum won both games, but he gave up three runs each time, in six and seven innings. I think the Dodgers would gladly take their chances in today's game with that kind of effort against him, and hope that Weaver and Haeger could make some Hae against the Giant hitters and keep things close.


Game 114 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Wolf -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Manny -- 1

Wolf was fabulous, though he only had three strikeouts --- kind of strange. But you know, the Giants may be the kind of team where a "pitch to contact" strategy may work. I thought about giving Weaver two shares, but I couldn't deny Manny and Ethier. Ethier had the biggest hit of the game, a double to give the Dodgers a 2-1 lead, and Manny drove in 3 runs after that to put the game out of reach. The most impressive hit of the game belonged to Matt Kemp, who hit a monster home run to deep deep center field, but it came too late for him to collect a reward for it.


Game 114 Unfair Loss Shares ( Giants )

Martinez -- 2
Honest Abe ( Velez ) -- 1

I have to say I'm rather delighted that Eugenio Velez has become a regular for the Giants. I'm fascinated by how much he looks like Abraham Lincoln. Maybe I'm the only one who sees it. Let me check and see ...

No! I'm not the only one! I'm so happy. Check out this link to the McCovey Chronicles, but be warned, may not be safe for work because there is no "rule 1" there ( plenty of f-bombs ). Nickname for Eugenio Velez A nickname involving Lincoln is in the second comment down, but my favorite nickname is in the post below that, by "groug". It's so appropriate given what happened last night, when Honest Abe Velez couldn't handle Martinez's low but catchable throw to second.

I'll have a few posts later today, so be sure to check back.

11 August 2009

Pressing the Advantage

Virtual unknown Joe Martinez starts tonight for the Giants. The Dodgers counter with the usually solid Randy Wolf. The Dodgers appear to have the advantage, as much as they can have an advantage in any game in San Francisco.

I think of Joe Martinez as the Giant's version of Eric Stults. It's not an exact match, but close enough. Both made their major league debuts in their age 26 season. Both had good minor league numbers prior to the first call up, but neither could be considered anything more than a fringe prospect. Martinez's minor league numbers are a little better through the age 26 season but he hasn't logged the kind of innings in the PCL that Stults did. I guess what I'm saying is that more likely than not the Dodgers should be able to hit Martinez. He might produce a complete game shutout out of nowhere but more likely he won't go more than five innings.

It's hard to say because Martinez really has no major league track record yet. Tonight will be only Martinez's second big league start and fourth major league game, even though he made the Giants out of spring training. Martinez picked up the win opening day in relief of an ineffective Tim Lincecum, then two days later his skull was fractured by a Mike Cameron line drive. After several months of recovery and about a month in AAA, Martinez made it back up to the Giants six days ago, this time as a starter, and he got the win in his first ever major league start, with three runs allowed in --- five innings --- against Houston.

Martinez is the kind of pitcher I'd root for if he wasn't a Giant. But he is a Giant, and he should be vulnerable, and getting a win tonight is even more vital because the Dodgers face a game tomorrow that pits ace Tim Lincecum against the great unknown --- maybe Weaver, maybe McDonald, maybe Elbert? --- anyone but Billingsley, anyway, who can't go with a strained hammy. I guess it's not a disaster if the Dodgers lose the final two games of the series, but it's an opportunity wasted. Time to show the Giants who is still boss of the NL West.

Destination Home

Imagine a long day's journey toward a waiting home. A comfortable, comforting house, with the warm glow of a fire beckoning through a lower window, and a strong wooden door that will swing open in welcome when you arrive, and then once inside, the smell of roast chicken and potatoes, a welcome repast for a weary traveler. There's only one thing. You still have to reach it. The journey will be difficult.


The Sky Unravels

If the sky tells the future, then the signs and patterns in the sky were ominous for Dodger fans through the first three innings of last night's game. Sanchez started out with flair and dominance, striking out four in a row at one point and generally looking as if he would go ahead and shut down the Dodgers and lift up the cries of "Beat LA" from his rowdy partisans. Only his bouts of wildness provided any hope, and it was easy enough to lose sight of that. Sanchez started out five Dodger hitters with 2-0 counts through the first three innings, but only two reached and none scored.

If there was a road home, I could not see it. If there was a star to show the way ahead, it was lost in cloud and shadow. I felt about the game in the first three innings the way I did about the game when Stults faced Vasquez this past Sunday. Stults was not terrible but he could not match Vasquez. Even when the score was only 1-0 in that game the losing result felt inevitable, and it turned out to be. And here we were again, a day later, another 1-0 score, another Dodger starter who just seemed outclassed by his rival. Could Kuroda hang on? Would the Dodgers offense ever arrive, take advantage of the small opening provided by Sanchez's wildness?


The Sunlit Path


Lost and cold. Cold in spirit and mind, because the way seems hopelessly lost. But then the unraveling of the sky reverses. The light of the heavens is stitched together again, and the thought and hope comes that the way home will soon be found. And then, ahead, a path of light! Straight and true, a sunlit path, a smooth road, gently rising, with cliffs to the left and a river valley to the right. Straight and true, this is the road home.

Kemp's double was the road home, straight and true. It was the sunlit path, cutting through the noise and chaos of beat LA and ending up safely home after Loretta's single. The hope that Sanchez's wildness would betray him was true. The bases were loaded --- but the hit, they still needed that hit --- and they got it, straight and true down the line.

The innings after, four, five and six, were smooth and safe, with Kuroda never wavering and the Dodgers holding strong with a 4-1 lead. Home seemed so close, even as it was miles away. It was visible, a warm point of light in the distance.


The Rocky Descent

When Kuroda came out, with eight outs still to go, I thought that even if we could not always expect perfection from the Dodger bullpen, we should be able to expect a three run lead to be preserved with less than three innings to go. But with a bullpen you never know. There is no longer a sure road. All it takes is one bad step, a stumble, and then home may never come.

When Kuo came in I was thinking about that home run he gave up Saturday. But Lewis was left shaking his head after he whiffed on a rise-ball. Then Belisario got his guy, and got Hudson bowled over by the ball, too, but anyway, just six outs to go. So close! But the closer home, the rockier the path.

Sherrill came in and pitched a decent eighth --- though brilliant in the run column. I think, right now, Sherrill may well be a slightly better pitcher than Broxton, but only because I still don't think that Broxton is quite right. There is no question that at his best Broxton is the better pitcher. I wonder if it would be best for Broxton to be shut down for two weeks, to make sure that toe and everything else that might be wrong is fully healed.

But Broxton pitched, and the job got done, mostly by the fielders, not the pitcher, but that counts too. Home. Finally, we were there. The door swung open, revealing the comforting, warm glow of victory over the Giants. There's nothing else like it.

Tonight we get to do it all again.


Game 113 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Kuroda -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Castro -- 1

The share I award to Juan Castro for his game ending dive and throw out from his knees is probably among the worst unfair win shares I have ever given, or among the best. I just think Broxton was so shaky, giving up all those hard hit balls up the middle, not to mention the home run, that it would have been really really dangerous to let the inning continue. And Castro didn't let it continue.


Game 113 Unfair Loss Shares ( Giants )

Sanchez -- 2 ( F -- 1, J -- 1 )
Lewis -- 1

That's one unfair loss share each for Freddie Sanchez and Jonathan Sanchez. Fred Lewis was probably the noisiest, can-eatingest Giant goat, mostly for his goofy fake-and-go caught stealing in the second just ahead of Ishikawa's home run. I love the description of the play in espn's play-by-play of the game: F Lewis out at second on runner's fielder's choice. What the hell is runner's fielder's choice?

10 August 2009

Perspective

How about some perspective?

So, just think about how bad you'll feel after the Giants sweep the Dodgers this week. When that happens you'll realize that being up by 5.5 games was like a paradise.
Too grim? Too defeatist? Probably is.

Well, just be happy you're not a Red Stocking fan this weekend. This isn't the worst boat to be in, even if it does seem like it's taking on water at an alarming rate.

I didn't write anything this weekend or this morning because I just didn't have much worth saying.

This series right now against the Giants matters. If the Dodgers win the series 2-1 I think that completely erases the bad of this weekend. If the Dodgers lose the series 1-2 I think there's still no reason to panic. If the Dodgers get swept, then we start looking for this year's late season turnaround, the eight game winning streak to follow the eight game ( or six game or whatever ) losing streak. I don't think the Dodgers will get swept. It could happen, but look, the Giants are still challenged offensively, even after their trades. Their pitching is amazing, better than the Dodgers, really, but their offense isn't close to being what the Dodger offense is. The question we have to ask is, has the Dodger offense fallen apart? I don't think it has. The last few weeks is not the next few weeks. There are no injury concerns on the offense. These are the same guys who were terrific before the All-Star break. They'll come around.

Game Nelson Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )

Mota -- 1
Loney -- 1
Manny -- 1

Two days later, I've mostly put aside the Dodger loss, and can just appreciate the brilliance of Kershaw's start. More often than not when Kershaw pitches like that the Dodgers will win.

Game Nelson Unfair Win Shares ( Braves )

Kawakami -- 1
Johnson -- 1
Medlen -- 1

Kawakami threw some really great pitches to the Dodger, but they could have hit him, at least a little bit. His scoreless 7 innings were not like Kershaw's scoreless seven. I think the loss would have been easier to take if that wasn't true, if Kershaw had been matched pitch for pitch, instead of being the better pitcher but still seeing his team lose.

Game Nelson + 1 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )

Stults -- 1
Troncoso -- 1
Kemp -- 1

In Cricket they have a superstition about the run total of 111, because supposedly British naval hero Lord Horatio Nelson had one leg, one arm, and one eye after being wounded several times. What Nelson has to do with cricket I don't know, ( except that both are English in origin ) but according to superstition a batsman is more likely to be dismissed on a run total of 111, which they call "Nelson". ( A total of 222 is called "double Nelson". ) The Dodgers, of course, were dismissed in their 111th game.

Game Nelson + 1 Unfair Win Shares ( Braves )

Diaz -- 1
Vasquez -- 2

edit: It turns out I screwed up the game numbers. The last game of the Braves Series was game 112. Oh well.

08 August 2009

Low Five

That was predictable for a title, right?

There were a lot of predictable things in that game last night, that awful 12-inning 9-5 loss. Bad things happened that after the fact prompt the weary and crestfallen fan to mutter --- of course. Billingsley gets hurt. Of course! He got hurt in his last start. Broxton gives up a run to blow the save. Of course! He's been shaky, by his standards, anyway, lately. Kuo gives up a two-run home run. Of course! He just pitched yesterday. Abreu grounds out with the bases loaded and two outs. Of course! He was just called up from the minor leagues. And worst of all --- the Dodger offense clunks to a halt after Manny is removed from the game. Ethier gets walked intentionally because there is no one to fear behind him. Of course.

Torre really managed that game right into a cocked hat. Why would he go to Kuo a second day in a row? Does he figure that maybe he can hurt Kuo's arm again and solve his bullpen logjam? And then why take out Manny? Did he really think Broxton was such a sure thing? Did he really think Pierre in left field would be THE difference in the game? Which is more likely, that Brox gives up a run and the Dodgers need Manny's bat, or that a ball is hit to left field that Pierre can catch and Manny can't, AND that this non-catch by Manny would have led to a run? Heck, Pierre's comparatively weaker arm could have cost the Dodgers the game, if we're going with unlikely scenarios. It was cruel haiku justice that Torre was punished for his stupid, stupid decision to lift Manny.

Even while slumping
Filthy helmet beats small cap
Better drink more tea

That tea Torre promotes is supposed to help with mental sharpness, right?

The most maddening moment of the game was not predictable. Loney fields a bunt, just misses the tag, then tosses the ball behind first base, letting the other runner advance to third, who scores on the subsequent double play. If Loney doesn't let that runner get to third, he doesn't score. McCann did something similar to the Braves, needlessly throwing to first and letting Kemp get to third when the throw got away. It was dueling blunders there, and the one by Loney ended up hurting more because the Dodgers lost.


Game 110 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )

Loney -- 1
Broxton -- 1
Elbert -- 1

Game 110 Pointy Haired Loss Shares ( Dodgers )

Torre -- 3


Game 110 Unfair Win Shares ( Braves )

Gonzalez -- 1
Escobar -- 1
Johnson -- 1

Relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez has a freaky delivery. I never want to see it again. Also, because he shut out the Dodgers for two innings.

Ryan Church hit that big three run home run in the twelfth but the Braves already had a lead. And I'm pretty sure he missed third base on his home run trot anyway.