I've been a Dodger fan since 1983. I've seen just about everything from the Dodgers in 26 years. But I've never seen a truly great Dodger team.
The 1988 team that won the World Series was very good, and more importantly they were legendary. They had great performances, dramatic performances. But that wasn't a great team, not if you look at them coldly and rationally. They didn't win 100 games. They had a fine pitching staff but a rather average offense.
I thought the Dodgers might be great this year. I thought they might win 100 games. They won't, unless they finish 18-5 or better. Maybe if that happened I would feel like I had seen a great team this year.
I know I was watching a great team the first few months of the season. They haven't ended that way, but the ending has not ended yet. They can still be a great team in October. That wouldn't make them a great team overall, any more than it made the 2006 Cardinals a great team, but I would take it.
And now, a whole lot of catching up in the unfair share department. Four games worth!
Game 136 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Loney -- 1
Ausmus -- 1
Martin -- 1
There are some games where the Dodgers win despite the struggles of Loney and Martin. There are some games where either Loney or Martin does well. And then there are games like the one last Friday, when the Dodgers lost 2-0 to the Padres. Loney was terrible, going hitless and leaving 6 runners. Martin was terrible in limited duty, hitting into a double play in the ninth inning that prevented the Dodgers from getting any of their best hitters to the plate in the ninth inning.
This was a rare game where both Dodgers catcher picked up unfair loss shares. Before Martin was in the game hitting into a double play Ausmus left 4 runners on by striking out twice.
Game 136 Unfair Win Shares ( Padres )
LeBlanc -- 2
Bell -- 1
It was like the spirit of Jake Peavy returned to the Padres.
Game 137 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Furcal -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Wolf -- 1
The hardest part was telling James Loney that his Dueces Wild performance wasn't good enough for a share. 2-2 with two walks and two driven in. But the listed three did a little more.
Game 137 Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )
Gwynn -- 1
Latos -- 1
Mujica -- 1
Is it painful for Padre fans to watch Tony Gwynn's son hit rather poorly for their team?
Game 138 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Kuroda -- 1
Pierre -- 1
Hudson -- 1
This one made me really frustrated. So close.
Kuroda walked three in five innings. That is a lot for him. Maybe his control will be better next time around, or the time after that. If not, he probably wouldn't make the top four Dodgers starters for potential postseason duty.
Game 138 Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )
Gregerson -- 1
Bell -- 1
Kouzmanoff -- 1
The Dodgers were beat by the Padre bullpen. Bell was great and Gregerson was even better.
Game 139 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Belliard -- 1
Loney -- 1
Padilla -- 1
Belliard? Padilla? Who are these guys? To fit in Loney will have to spell his last name "Lloney".
So far I have been completely wrong about Padilla. As for Belliard, who know how long his good hitting can last, but I'm sure that with Blake hurt I'd much rather have Belliard in the lineup than Loretta.
Game 139 Unfair Loss Shares ( Snakes )
Upton -- 1
Drew -- 1
Scherzer -- 1
Drew was 2-3 with a walk yesterday, so his inclusion is a little strange. Well, if you saw the first inning you will probably understand, if not necessarily agree. Drew doubled with one out in the first inning, then thought he might go to third on a ground ball hit to Furcal. Three throws later and the Snakes had run into a soul-crushing double play.
Up until that point the game had felt like a Snakes win. Though it was very early Scherzer looked clearly better than Padilla. Then that play happened, and the game just seemed to turn. It did turn the next inning. Coincidence, most likely. But I wonder if Scherzer's confidence was shaken in some unquantifiable way after seeing his teammates run out of a scoring chance. Probably not. This is really irrational territory here, but I know that as a fan watching the game seemed to turn with that play. Players are irrational too, many even more so, and so is it so crazy to think some of them saw the game turning too, and that it might in some small way affect their play?
08 September 2009
04 September 2009
Broxton the Starter
In a parallel universe, Jon Broxton is a starter.
Start 1 ( Apr 6 - 23 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
8.1 -- 2 -- 1 -- 0 -- 13 -- 0 -- 108
Time moves faster in that other universe. That's why Broxton the Starter's starts stretch over several days. Broxton the Starter's first start is fabulous, a near complete game masterpiece that features a baker's dozen of strikeouts and no walks.
Start 2 ( Apr 24 - May 5 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
5.2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 4 -- 12 -- 0 -- 107
It is an amazing coincidence that Broxton's the Starters stats are exactly the same as Broxton the Relievers stats. They match up, like, perfectly. Dude. It's cosmic. Actually, it's not. There is no link between the two universes. It's just a coincidence! Broxton the Starter was dominant in his second start, but used too many pitches walking batters and was lifted in the sixth even though he had a no-hitter going. In frustration he proceeds to destroy a cooler full of the sports drink Crocade.
Start 3 ( May 10 - 20 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
7.0 -- 4 -- 2 -- 3 -- 7 -- 0 -- 118
Broxton the Starter takes a break from his amazing strikeout binge, but he still turns in a fine performance.
Start 4 ( May 23 - June 3 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
6.0 -- 2 -- 1 -- 3 -- 10 -- 0 -- 107
Another fine start for Broxton the Starter. There is talk he may win the Cy Old Award for best pitcher in a parallel universe.
Start 5 ( June 5 - 20 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
7.0 -- 5 -- 3 -- 2 -- 12 -- 1 -- 111
Broxton the Starter gives up his first home run of the year and ends up with a good but not great start.
Start 6 ( June 21 - July 5 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
5.2 -- 5 -- 5 -- 4 -- 11 -- 0 -- 105
Broxton the Starter has his first bad start. Though he's still striking out batters at a fearsome clip, the walks doom him.
Start 7 ( July 10 - 29 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
7.0 -- 6 -- 3 -- 3 -- 9 -- 0 -- 110
Broxton the Starter rebounds with a decent start, but he has yet to recapture his early season magic.
Start 8 ( July 30 - Aug 15 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
6.0 -- 6 -- 4 -- 3 -- 4 -- 3 -- 102
Another poor start, in which Broxton the Starter shockingly gives up three home runs. Even more ominous perhaps is that his strikeout total is so low by his standards. This is his fourth straight start allowing three runs or more. No one is panicking, because two of those four starts were still pretty good and even the best starter may go through a rough patch, but there is some concern.
Start 9 ( Aug 17 - Aug 27 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
7.2 -- 5 -- 1 -- 2 -- 11 -- 0 -- 108
Broxton the Starter silences all talk of a lingering injury or slump with a dominant performance in which the only run he allows is unearned.
Start 10 ( Aug 30 - ??? )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
4.0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 2 -- 8 -- 0 -- 71
Though still underway, it appears Broxton the Starter's latest start will be another gem. Of his nine completed starts, Broxton the Starter has had 5 excellent games, 2 good, and 2 poor, with none being more-runs-than-innings-pitched disastrous. The only thing keeping Broxton the Starter from being hailed as the best pitcher on the Dodgers is Kershaw the Closer, who has struck out every batter he has faced.
Game 135 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Garland -- 1
Manny -- 1
Belliard -- 1
From a cynical perspective Garland had the perfect first game for a new team. He pitched well and made a good first impression, but not so well that expectations will be too high for him in subsequent starts. He got enough run support to win, but not so much that it felt like his efforts didn't really matter.
Belliard somehow ended up with 3 runs batted in. Is the plan to play him every day? Every other day? I guess I can't complain too much about that, since the players he would play in place of aren't doing too well lately.
Game 135 Unfair Loss Shares ( Snakes )
Allen -- 1
Buckner -- 1
Young -- 1
You could argue that by trading for Garland the Dodgers also traded for their win today. I think it's a pretty tenuous argument but I find it amusing, so I'm backing it up.
Start 1 ( Apr 6 - 23 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
8.1 -- 2 -- 1 -- 0 -- 13 -- 0 -- 108
Time moves faster in that other universe. That's why Broxton the Starter's starts stretch over several days. Broxton the Starter's first start is fabulous, a near complete game masterpiece that features a baker's dozen of strikeouts and no walks.
Start 2 ( Apr 24 - May 5 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
5.2 -- 0 -- 0 -- 4 -- 12 -- 0 -- 107
It is an amazing coincidence that Broxton's the Starters stats are exactly the same as Broxton the Relievers stats. They match up, like, perfectly. Dude. It's cosmic. Actually, it's not. There is no link between the two universes. It's just a coincidence! Broxton the Starter was dominant in his second start, but used too many pitches walking batters and was lifted in the sixth even though he had a no-hitter going. In frustration he proceeds to destroy a cooler full of the sports drink Crocade.
Start 3 ( May 10 - 20 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
7.0 -- 4 -- 2 -- 3 -- 7 -- 0 -- 118
Broxton the Starter takes a break from his amazing strikeout binge, but he still turns in a fine performance.
Start 4 ( May 23 - June 3 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
6.0 -- 2 -- 1 -- 3 -- 10 -- 0 -- 107
Another fine start for Broxton the Starter. There is talk he may win the Cy Old Award for best pitcher in a parallel universe.
Start 5 ( June 5 - 20 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
7.0 -- 5 -- 3 -- 2 -- 12 -- 1 -- 111
Broxton the Starter gives up his first home run of the year and ends up with a good but not great start.
Start 6 ( June 21 - July 5 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
5.2 -- 5 -- 5 -- 4 -- 11 -- 0 -- 105
Broxton the Starter has his first bad start. Though he's still striking out batters at a fearsome clip, the walks doom him.
Start 7 ( July 10 - 29 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
7.0 -- 6 -- 3 -- 3 -- 9 -- 0 -- 110
Broxton the Starter rebounds with a decent start, but he has yet to recapture his early season magic.
Start 8 ( July 30 - Aug 15 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
6.0 -- 6 -- 4 -- 3 -- 4 -- 3 -- 102
Another poor start, in which Broxton the Starter shockingly gives up three home runs. Even more ominous perhaps is that his strikeout total is so low by his standards. This is his fourth straight start allowing three runs or more. No one is panicking, because two of those four starts were still pretty good and even the best starter may go through a rough patch, but there is some concern.
Start 9 ( Aug 17 - Aug 27 )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
7.2 -- 5 -- 1 -- 2 -- 11 -- 0 -- 108
Broxton the Starter silences all talk of a lingering injury or slump with a dominant performance in which the only run he allows is unearned.
Start 10 ( Aug 30 - ??? )
IP -- H -- R -- BB -- SO -- HR -- Pitches
4.0 -- 2 -- 0 -- 2 -- 8 -- 0 -- 71
Though still underway, it appears Broxton the Starter's latest start will be another gem. Of his nine completed starts, Broxton the Starter has had 5 excellent games, 2 good, and 2 poor, with none being more-runs-than-innings-pitched disastrous. The only thing keeping Broxton the Starter from being hailed as the best pitcher on the Dodgers is Kershaw the Closer, who has struck out every batter he has faced.
Game 135 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Garland -- 1
Manny -- 1
Belliard -- 1
From a cynical perspective Garland had the perfect first game for a new team. He pitched well and made a good first impression, but not so well that expectations will be too high for him in subsequent starts. He got enough run support to win, but not so much that it felt like his efforts didn't really matter.
Belliard somehow ended up with 3 runs batted in. Is the plan to play him every day? Every other day? I guess I can't complain too much about that, since the players he would play in place of aren't doing too well lately.
Game 135 Unfair Loss Shares ( Snakes )
Allen -- 1
Buckner -- 1
Young -- 1
You could argue that by trading for Garland the Dodgers also traded for their win today. I think it's a pretty tenuous argument but I find it amusing, so I'm backing it up.
03 September 2009
The Seed of Failure
At what point do you give up on a player? This should be a rational process but I think most often it isn't. Ideally it should only be when a player's performance falls below a certain statistical threshold, with sample size being a huge component of this. But it doesn't work that way for most people. Maybe it comes in a moment, a flash of lightning that illuminates everything, all the past failures. Maybe one day you just wake up and know that a player isn't going to make it. I'm not sure, but most of us watch these games with emotion ( else why watch them? ) and we react with emotion, so it is very likely that the act of giving up on a player will have a large emotional component.
I am certain that if I was a Snakes fan I would have given up on Chris Young by now. I am not a person overflowing with sympathy and kindness, especially for Snakes players, but still I can only find what has happened with Chris Young depressing and sad. I guess they really thought they had a good player there. Power, speed --- he had it all, everything but the ability to consistently get on base. I was always skeptical of Young's future prospects for that reason, even when he hit the 30 home runs. So many strikeouts. But Matt Kemp strikes out a lot, and he's not doing too poorly. It's crazy to think of now but there was a time when you could make a passable argument that Young was just as good as Kemp. Now they're at opposite ends of the center field rankings. And if we're talking about striking out too much what about Mark Reynolds? He strikes out more than anyone and he's become an elite hitter. I would have gone broke with both my knees broken by a loan shark if I had bet on what kind of player Mark Reynolds would turn out to be. It's not just the strikeouts. I don't know what it is.
At what point to we give up on Chad Billingsley? My answer is 2011 at the earliest. Late 2011. Funny thing about that question is that a lot of people won't understand asking it for entirely opposing reasons. For some even asking the question is an emotional overreaction to a few bad starts, a rough stretch in which Billingsley has pitched a little hurt, a little unlucky. I find this perspective utterly convincing, in a top-brain way, but not in a hind-brain way. Fair or not, the seed has been planted now, but more on that later. For other people, the question is unnecessary because they have already given up on Chad Billingsley. I have to admit that I don't find this persuasive at all, not even in an emotional way. Perhaps I overestimate the number of people who have given up on him. But it's out there. His performances against the Phillies in the playoffs last year is proof. His latter-half slide this year is proof. His demeanor is proof. So much proof, all of it poof. Air and heat and impatience. I'm guilty of talking about Billingsley in terms of whether he is an ace or not, but I don't use it as a bludgeon against him the way other do. He's not an ace! Justification: he's not clutch like Hamels. Implication: he's a failure. What a lot of nonsense.
But the seed has been planted. The seed of failure. I'm asking the question now. I wonder if Billingsley will indeed turn out as good as we thought he would be. He's not as far as Loney is down that path, but it's started. I feel like we're past the point where you can say it's just the typical struggles of a young player. It's more like the typical struggles of a starting pitcher now. And if he ends this year well and then pitches well next year that's all it will be. But if he keeps struggling, now and in the future, then this will be the beginning of his transformation into Brett Tomko. Now there's a despressing thought. Good thing it probably won't happen.
There is one other thing in all this, probably the most important. What about Chad himself? Has the question occurred to him? I hope not. Probably not. Most ballplayers are pretty delusional about their own abilities, if their quotes are anything to go by. The Tomkos and Hendricksons of the world are always one mechanical adjustment away from suddenly being the good pitchers they really are. But still, the failure has to eat at you eventually. Billingsley has to deal with start after start running into trouble in the fifth or sixth inning. A fast start in a game doesn't mean anything later on, and he has to know that. He has a really tough job, and most of it is mental.
Game 134 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Billingsley -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Loney -- 1
Game 134 Unfair Win Shares ( Snakes )
Scherzer -- 2
Allen -- 1
I am certain that if I was a Snakes fan I would have given up on Chris Young by now. I am not a person overflowing with sympathy and kindness, especially for Snakes players, but still I can only find what has happened with Chris Young depressing and sad. I guess they really thought they had a good player there. Power, speed --- he had it all, everything but the ability to consistently get on base. I was always skeptical of Young's future prospects for that reason, even when he hit the 30 home runs. So many strikeouts. But Matt Kemp strikes out a lot, and he's not doing too poorly. It's crazy to think of now but there was a time when you could make a passable argument that Young was just as good as Kemp. Now they're at opposite ends of the center field rankings. And if we're talking about striking out too much what about Mark Reynolds? He strikes out more than anyone and he's become an elite hitter. I would have gone broke with both my knees broken by a loan shark if I had bet on what kind of player Mark Reynolds would turn out to be. It's not just the strikeouts. I don't know what it is.
At what point to we give up on Chad Billingsley? My answer is 2011 at the earliest. Late 2011. Funny thing about that question is that a lot of people won't understand asking it for entirely opposing reasons. For some even asking the question is an emotional overreaction to a few bad starts, a rough stretch in which Billingsley has pitched a little hurt, a little unlucky. I find this perspective utterly convincing, in a top-brain way, but not in a hind-brain way. Fair or not, the seed has been planted now, but more on that later. For other people, the question is unnecessary because they have already given up on Chad Billingsley. I have to admit that I don't find this persuasive at all, not even in an emotional way. Perhaps I overestimate the number of people who have given up on him. But it's out there. His performances against the Phillies in the playoffs last year is proof. His latter-half slide this year is proof. His demeanor is proof. So much proof, all of it poof. Air and heat and impatience. I'm guilty of talking about Billingsley in terms of whether he is an ace or not, but I don't use it as a bludgeon against him the way other do. He's not an ace! Justification: he's not clutch like Hamels. Implication: he's a failure. What a lot of nonsense.
But the seed has been planted. The seed of failure. I'm asking the question now. I wonder if Billingsley will indeed turn out as good as we thought he would be. He's not as far as Loney is down that path, but it's started. I feel like we're past the point where you can say it's just the typical struggles of a young player. It's more like the typical struggles of a starting pitcher now. And if he ends this year well and then pitches well next year that's all it will be. But if he keeps struggling, now and in the future, then this will be the beginning of his transformation into Brett Tomko. Now there's a despressing thought. Good thing it probably won't happen.
There is one other thing in all this, probably the most important. What about Chad himself? Has the question occurred to him? I hope not. Probably not. Most ballplayers are pretty delusional about their own abilities, if their quotes are anything to go by. The Tomkos and Hendricksons of the world are always one mechanical adjustment away from suddenly being the good pitchers they really are. But still, the failure has to eat at you eventually. Billingsley has to deal with start after start running into trouble in the fifth or sixth inning. A fast start in a game doesn't mean anything later on, and he has to know that. He has a really tough job, and most of it is mental.
Game 134 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Billingsley -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Loney -- 1
Game 134 Unfair Win Shares ( Snakes )
Scherzer -- 2
Allen -- 1
02 September 2009
Rotation Rankings
For the starting pitching rankings in the National League I used ERA+ from baseball reference, FIP from hardballtimes.com, and inning pitched. Only 2009 performance is considered. Starters on each team were assigned to first, second, third, fourth and fifth starter slots depending on how good their performances relative to each other, and then all first starters were ranked against each other, all second starters ranked against each other, and so on.
First Starter
1. SFG -- Lincecum
2. STL -- Carpenter
3. PHI -- Lee
4. ARI -- Haren
5. FLA -- Johnson
6. COL -- Jimenez
7. LAD -- Kershaw
8. ATL -- Jurrjens
9. HOU -- Rodriguez
10. NYM -- Santana
11. CHC -- Wells
12. MIL -- Gallardo
13. PIT -- Duke
14. CIN -- Harang
15. WSN -- Lannan
16. SDP -- Correia
The ranking of aces is fun, but I wonder if it's really that important. If you're anywhere in the top ten you're doing fine. There are of course a few pitchers who should be called "aces" who have to wait until the second or even third list to be mentioned because they aren't their team's best pitcher.
Kershaw would be a little higher if he had more innings pitched. As it is you could argue for him being bumped down to 9 or 10 because he has a higher chance than any of these other guys of not making it through 5 innings. The Dodgers are a strange case because I think you could argue for any of Wolf, Billingsley or Kershaw to be their top pitcher. In the end I went with the guy with all the strikeouts.
Santana will not pitch again this season, but since he's been the Mets ace for most of the season I kept him in. It is strange to see Santana so low on this list.
Second Starter
1. STL -- Wainwright
2. SFG -- Cain
3. ATL -- Vazquez
4. PHI -- Happ
5. LAD -- Wolf
6. COL -- Marquis
7. CHC -- Lilly
8. HOU -- Oswalt
9. ARI -- Scherzer
10. CIN -- Arroyo
11. FLA -- Nolasco
12. PIT -- Maholm
13. NYM -- Pelfrey
14. WSN -- Stammen
15. MIL -- Looper
16. SDP -- Latos
Wainwright and Cain are Cy Young candidates, but they can't even make the first starter list because of Carpenter and Lincecum. Surprise 2009 successes Happ, Wolf and Marquis have boosted their teams into excellent playoff positions.
Third Starter
1. STL -- Pineiro
2. LAD -- Billingsley
3. CHC -- Zambrano
4. SFG -- Zito
5. ARI -- Davis
6. ATL -- Lowe
7. COL -- de la Rosa
8. PHI -- Hamels
9. CIN -- Cueto
10. PIT -- Ohlendorf
11. HOU -- Moehler
12. WSN -- Mock
13. SDP -- Stauffer
14. FLA -- Sanchez
15. MIL -- Suppan
16. NYM -- Redding
Pineiro would be the first starter on many teams. The Cardinals go three deep with shut down pitchers, and for that reason I have to think they should be favored to win the NL Pennant. Their bullpen is sometimes shaky, but how often will that be a factor with Carpenter, Wainwright and Pineiro starting? Their fourth starter isn't that great, but by that time they may already be up 3-0 in the series. Then you think about Pujols and Holliday and the Cardinals seem unbeatable.
Fortunately great pitchers lose all the time in the playoffs. I guess that has something to do with the great pitchers and great hitters on the teams they face. So the Cardinals may be favorites but they aren't locks.
Billingsley comes in second to Pineiro, giving the Dodgers a very good top three in the rotation. Billingsley's ERA has risen since his great start to the season but his underlying FIP numbers ( homers, Ks and walks ) are still very good. Another reputed ace who has slid into the third starter slot is Hamels, and he doesn't fare as well as Billingsley, though I didn't take into account Hamels' two hitter yesterday in this ranking. If Hamels can pitch as well in the playoffs this year as he did last year then the Phillie pitching will look a lot better and might even challenge the Cardinals for overall scariness. But even if he doesn't regain that form the Phillies still have a very good rotation.
Fourth Starter
1. COL -- Hammel
2. PHI -- Blanton
3. CHC -- Dempster
4. LAD -- Garland
5. SFG -- Sanchez
6. ATL -- Kawakami
7. FLA -- West
8. STL -- Lohse
9. PIT -- Morton
10. ARI -- Petit
11. NYM -- Parnell
12. CIN -- Bailey
13. MIL -- Parra
14. WSN -- Martin
15. SDP -- Richard
16. HOU -- Norris
This is the last ranking that matters for playoff matchups. I was surprised to see the Rockies come out on top here, though not that surprised, since it's really been their solid starting pitching that has fueled their turnaround since the first two months. I listed Garland as the fourth Dodgers starter, though maybe Kuroda will end up in that role. At this point I'm just not sure if Kuroda can come back at full strength. Is giving up a ground rule double off your head something you can recover from in a month?
If Kuroda was in the fourth slot for the Dodgers he'd probably rank about the same on this list. The Dodgers may not have the most impressive playoff pitching staff but they do have a staff you can win with.
Fifth Starter
1. ATL -- Hanson
2. CHC -- Harden
3. LAD -- Kuroda
4. COL -- Contreras
5. PHI -- Martinez
6. PIT -- Hart
7. SFG -- Penny
8. STL -- Smoltz
9. WSN -- Hernandez
10. FLA -- Volstad
11. NYM -- Figueroa
12. CIN -- Owings
13. MIL -- Bush
NR -- HOU, SDP, ARI
Very few teams have five decent starters. Even fewer have five good starters. The Braves, Cubs, and maybe Dodgers ( if Kuroda can come back ) have five arguably good starters. The Rockies, Giants and Cardinals are making a go of it with some pitchers who struggled in the American League. The Phillies are seeing if Pedro has any magic left. But it's very meager pickings out there. You mostly get guys like Livan Hernandez and Micah Owings, not to mention all the fifth starters who didn't make it to this point in the year due to poor performances. Heck, I didn't even list a fifth starter for three teams, that's how bad it is. The good news for teams headed to the playoffs is that the fifth starter doesn't matter --- unless one of the top four get hurt.
Team Rankings
1. STL -- 02 -- 01 -- 01 -- 08 -- 08
2. SFG -- 01 -- 02 -- 04 -- 05 -- 07
3. PHI -- 03 -- 04 -- 08 -- 02 -- 05
4. LAD -- 07 -- 05 -- 02 -- 04 -- 03
5. COL -- 06 -- 06 -- 07 -- 01 -- 04
6. CHC -- 11 -- 07 -- 03 -- 03 -- 02
7. ATL -- 08 -- 03 -- 06 -- 06 -- 01
8. ARI -- 04 -- 09 -- 05 -- 10 -- XX
9. FLA -- 05 -- 11 -- 14 -- 07 -- 10
10. HOU -- 09 -- 08 -- 11 -- 16 -- XX
11. CIN -- 14 -- 10 -- 09 -- 12 -- 12
12. PIT -- 13 -- 12 -- 10 -- 09 -- 06
13. NYM -- 10 -- 13 -- 16 -- 11 -- 11
14. MIL -- 12 -- 15 -- 15 -- 13 -- 13
15. WSN -- 15 -- 14 -- 12 -- 14 -- 09
16. SDP -- 16 -- 16 -- 13 -- 15 -- XX
Man, the Padres have had terrible pitching this year. Even when Peavy was pitching for them he didn't do that well. Just a lost year for the Padres. Everyone else in the NL West had pretty good starting pitching, even the Snakes.
I suppose it's no accident the top five playoff contenders make the top five of the list, though I don't think it would always work out that way. I should note that my team rankings ( like all the other rankings I have done here and in the position player post yesterday ) are subjective and may have been subtly influenced by how well I know the teams are doing. It's interesting though that the two teams that have the most solid rotations top to bottom ( Cubs and Braves ) are on the outside looking in right now.
The Dodgers only have a starting pitching advantage against one likely playoff opponent, the Rockies, and that one is pretty close. Nevertheless I like where the Dodgers stand at this point, mostly because of the bullpen. How well the Dodgers play in October ( and if they even get there ) will be up to how well the offense performs, I think.
First Starter
1. SFG -- Lincecum
2. STL -- Carpenter
3. PHI -- Lee
4. ARI -- Haren
5. FLA -- Johnson
6. COL -- Jimenez
7. LAD -- Kershaw
8. ATL -- Jurrjens
9. HOU -- Rodriguez
10. NYM -- Santana
11. CHC -- Wells
12. MIL -- Gallardo
13. PIT -- Duke
14. CIN -- Harang
15. WSN -- Lannan
16. SDP -- Correia
The ranking of aces is fun, but I wonder if it's really that important. If you're anywhere in the top ten you're doing fine. There are of course a few pitchers who should be called "aces" who have to wait until the second or even third list to be mentioned because they aren't their team's best pitcher.
Kershaw would be a little higher if he had more innings pitched. As it is you could argue for him being bumped down to 9 or 10 because he has a higher chance than any of these other guys of not making it through 5 innings. The Dodgers are a strange case because I think you could argue for any of Wolf, Billingsley or Kershaw to be their top pitcher. In the end I went with the guy with all the strikeouts.
Santana will not pitch again this season, but since he's been the Mets ace for most of the season I kept him in. It is strange to see Santana so low on this list.
Second Starter
1. STL -- Wainwright
2. SFG -- Cain
3. ATL -- Vazquez
4. PHI -- Happ
5. LAD -- Wolf
6. COL -- Marquis
7. CHC -- Lilly
8. HOU -- Oswalt
9. ARI -- Scherzer
10. CIN -- Arroyo
11. FLA -- Nolasco
12. PIT -- Maholm
13. NYM -- Pelfrey
14. WSN -- Stammen
15. MIL -- Looper
16. SDP -- Latos
Wainwright and Cain are Cy Young candidates, but they can't even make the first starter list because of Carpenter and Lincecum. Surprise 2009 successes Happ, Wolf and Marquis have boosted their teams into excellent playoff positions.
Third Starter
1. STL -- Pineiro
2. LAD -- Billingsley
3. CHC -- Zambrano
4. SFG -- Zito
5. ARI -- Davis
6. ATL -- Lowe
7. COL -- de la Rosa
8. PHI -- Hamels
9. CIN -- Cueto
10. PIT -- Ohlendorf
11. HOU -- Moehler
12. WSN -- Mock
13. SDP -- Stauffer
14. FLA -- Sanchez
15. MIL -- Suppan
16. NYM -- Redding
Pineiro would be the first starter on many teams. The Cardinals go three deep with shut down pitchers, and for that reason I have to think they should be favored to win the NL Pennant. Their bullpen is sometimes shaky, but how often will that be a factor with Carpenter, Wainwright and Pineiro starting? Their fourth starter isn't that great, but by that time they may already be up 3-0 in the series. Then you think about Pujols and Holliday and the Cardinals seem unbeatable.
Fortunately great pitchers lose all the time in the playoffs. I guess that has something to do with the great pitchers and great hitters on the teams they face. So the Cardinals may be favorites but they aren't locks.
Billingsley comes in second to Pineiro, giving the Dodgers a very good top three in the rotation. Billingsley's ERA has risen since his great start to the season but his underlying FIP numbers ( homers, Ks and walks ) are still very good. Another reputed ace who has slid into the third starter slot is Hamels, and he doesn't fare as well as Billingsley, though I didn't take into account Hamels' two hitter yesterday in this ranking. If Hamels can pitch as well in the playoffs this year as he did last year then the Phillie pitching will look a lot better and might even challenge the Cardinals for overall scariness. But even if he doesn't regain that form the Phillies still have a very good rotation.
Fourth Starter
1. COL -- Hammel
2. PHI -- Blanton
3. CHC -- Dempster
4. LAD -- Garland
5. SFG -- Sanchez
6. ATL -- Kawakami
7. FLA -- West
8. STL -- Lohse
9. PIT -- Morton
10. ARI -- Petit
11. NYM -- Parnell
12. CIN -- Bailey
13. MIL -- Parra
14. WSN -- Martin
15. SDP -- Richard
16. HOU -- Norris
This is the last ranking that matters for playoff matchups. I was surprised to see the Rockies come out on top here, though not that surprised, since it's really been their solid starting pitching that has fueled their turnaround since the first two months. I listed Garland as the fourth Dodgers starter, though maybe Kuroda will end up in that role. At this point I'm just not sure if Kuroda can come back at full strength. Is giving up a ground rule double off your head something you can recover from in a month?
If Kuroda was in the fourth slot for the Dodgers he'd probably rank about the same on this list. The Dodgers may not have the most impressive playoff pitching staff but they do have a staff you can win with.
Fifth Starter
1. ATL -- Hanson
2. CHC -- Harden
3. LAD -- Kuroda
4. COL -- Contreras
5. PHI -- Martinez
6. PIT -- Hart
7. SFG -- Penny
8. STL -- Smoltz
9. WSN -- Hernandez
10. FLA -- Volstad
11. NYM -- Figueroa
12. CIN -- Owings
13. MIL -- Bush
NR -- HOU, SDP, ARI
Very few teams have five decent starters. Even fewer have five good starters. The Braves, Cubs, and maybe Dodgers ( if Kuroda can come back ) have five arguably good starters. The Rockies, Giants and Cardinals are making a go of it with some pitchers who struggled in the American League. The Phillies are seeing if Pedro has any magic left. But it's very meager pickings out there. You mostly get guys like Livan Hernandez and Micah Owings, not to mention all the fifth starters who didn't make it to this point in the year due to poor performances. Heck, I didn't even list a fifth starter for three teams, that's how bad it is. The good news for teams headed to the playoffs is that the fifth starter doesn't matter --- unless one of the top four get hurt.
Team Rankings
1. STL -- 02 -- 01 -- 01 -- 08 -- 08
2. SFG -- 01 -- 02 -- 04 -- 05 -- 07
3. PHI -- 03 -- 04 -- 08 -- 02 -- 05
4. LAD -- 07 -- 05 -- 02 -- 04 -- 03
5. COL -- 06 -- 06 -- 07 -- 01 -- 04
6. CHC -- 11 -- 07 -- 03 -- 03 -- 02
7. ATL -- 08 -- 03 -- 06 -- 06 -- 01
8. ARI -- 04 -- 09 -- 05 -- 10 -- XX
9. FLA -- 05 -- 11 -- 14 -- 07 -- 10
10. HOU -- 09 -- 08 -- 11 -- 16 -- XX
11. CIN -- 14 -- 10 -- 09 -- 12 -- 12
12. PIT -- 13 -- 12 -- 10 -- 09 -- 06
13. NYM -- 10 -- 13 -- 16 -- 11 -- 11
14. MIL -- 12 -- 15 -- 15 -- 13 -- 13
15. WSN -- 15 -- 14 -- 12 -- 14 -- 09
16. SDP -- 16 -- 16 -- 13 -- 15 -- XX
Man, the Padres have had terrible pitching this year. Even when Peavy was pitching for them he didn't do that well. Just a lost year for the Padres. Everyone else in the NL West had pretty good starting pitching, even the Snakes.
I suppose it's no accident the top five playoff contenders make the top five of the list, though I don't think it would always work out that way. I should note that my team rankings ( like all the other rankings I have done here and in the position player post yesterday ) are subjective and may have been subtly influenced by how well I know the teams are doing. It's interesting though that the two teams that have the most solid rotations top to bottom ( Cubs and Braves ) are on the outside looking in right now.
The Dodgers only have a starting pitching advantage against one likely playoff opponent, the Rockies, and that one is pretty close. Nevertheless I like where the Dodgers stand at this point, mostly because of the bullpen. How well the Dodgers play in October ( and if they even get there ) will be up to how well the offense performs, I think.
Ordinary Offense
The Dodger offense is bad. They managed only 3 runs against Petit, who is not a good pitcher. His ERA is the opposite of his name. The Dodgers have beat him easily twice before. Not last night. The Dodgers scored one run off a bloop hit, then another off of a bunt single, steal and throwing error, then another off a home run. Only one really legitimate run.
At least the Dodgers can win this way. When the offense is flat like this they're really only a 0.500 team, but you know most teams can't even play 0.500 ball when the offense is struggling. The starters and bullpen have kept the Dodgers out front of the NL West. Maybe the offense will come back. Maybe it was never really meant to be the kind of scoring machine we saw the first two months of the season.
Game 133 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Broxton -- 1
Broxton is back. His toe is miraculously healed! He got into trouble that ninth inning, but it wasn't his fault, and he successfully got out of trouble.
Ethier gets a rare hitless non-pitcher unfair win share. I don't think his catch saved a home run, but I can't rule it out. These catches are always deceptive because the glove usually ends up over the wall by the time the leap is completed, but at the moment when the ball hits the glove it was usually not above the wall. For Ethier's catch it's hard to tell. Doesn't matter, it's a great catch no matter what.
Every morning Kemp wakes up, looks in the mirror, and says, "I am not a singles hitter." And then every night he goes out and proves it.
Game 133 Unfair Loss Shares ( Snakes )
Reynolds -- 1
Young -- 1
Zavada -- 1
Zavada snipped off the curls of his fabulous villain mustache. Now he's just a regular mustachioed pitcher. That's why he walked Ethier with the bases loaded. It's mustache Karma. Meanwhile, Young and Reynolds went 0-9 with 5 strikeouts. I am brimming with gladness at all those strikeouts.
At least the Dodgers can win this way. When the offense is flat like this they're really only a 0.500 team, but you know most teams can't even play 0.500 ball when the offense is struggling. The starters and bullpen have kept the Dodgers out front of the NL West. Maybe the offense will come back. Maybe it was never really meant to be the kind of scoring machine we saw the first two months of the season.
Game 133 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Broxton -- 1
Broxton is back. His toe is miraculously healed! He got into trouble that ninth inning, but it wasn't his fault, and he successfully got out of trouble.
Ethier gets a rare hitless non-pitcher unfair win share. I don't think his catch saved a home run, but I can't rule it out. These catches are always deceptive because the glove usually ends up over the wall by the time the leap is completed, but at the moment when the ball hits the glove it was usually not above the wall. For Ethier's catch it's hard to tell. Doesn't matter, it's a great catch no matter what.
Every morning Kemp wakes up, looks in the mirror, and says, "I am not a singles hitter." And then every night he goes out and proves it.
Game 133 Unfair Loss Shares ( Snakes )
Reynolds -- 1
Young -- 1
Zavada -- 1
Zavada snipped off the curls of his fabulous villain mustache. Now he's just a regular mustachioed pitcher. That's why he walked Ethier with the bases loaded. It's mustache Karma. Meanwhile, Young and Reynolds went 0-9 with 5 strikeouts. I am brimming with gladness at all those strikeouts.
01 September 2009
National League Positional Rankings
It's tricky, sometimes, to figure out a team's starter at every position. Not every team has as stable a lineup as the Dodgers. Injury ravaged teams are problematic, as are teams that have fallen out of contention and may be working younger players into the lineup. If a typically starting player is currently on the disabled list then I still listed him as the starter if he only recently went on the DL, even if he might not come back this season, though I think almost all of the disabled players I have listed will be coming back this season. So David Wright is listed as the Met third baseman, while Carlos Beltran is out as the Met center fielder because he's been out for months. When there was no clear starter at a position I just looked at who was playing the most games at that position in the last few weeks.
The rankings are based only on performance this year. These are essentially offensive rankings, though I did consider defense in a few cases. I used 2009 OPS+ values from baseball-reference.com as my primary ranking tool. I also looked at UZR ( a defensive metric available on hardballtimes.com ), raw on-base percentage and plate appearances to differentiate between players in the same range of OPS+. I might use a different statistic if I was doing this again, such as EqA or VoRP or whatever newest alphabet soup stat the traditional sports writers are making fun of these days. I don't think it matters too much, because no matter what I use the rankings will never be perfect. Call them accurate to two spots, high or low.
First Base
1. STL -- Pujols
2. SDP -- Gonzalez
3. MIL -- Fielder
4. WSN -- Dunn
5. CIN -- Votto
6. HOU -- Berkman
7. PHI -- Howard
8. CHC -- Lee
9. COL -- Helton
10. ATL -- LaRoche
11. LAD -- Loney
12. SFG -- Garko
13. FLA -- Gload
14. PIT -- Pearce
15. NYM -- Murphy
16. ARI -- Tracy
First base is the most crowded position, by far. Anyone in the top nine at first would probably make the top three at any other position with the same offensive stats. In fact Dunn would have been number one in right field until the Nats moved him to first base about a month ago.
If new Dodger Jim Thome was able and willing to play first base, then his spot on this list would be --- 11! --- same as James Loney. This even though Thome is much better than Loney at the plate. This is because there is a huge fall-off from Adam LaRoche to Loney, where LaRoche would barely edge out Thome. Similarly Loney barely beats out Garko, while Thome would easily rank ahead of Garko. And then after Garko there is a whole lot of nothing.
I guess what I would say is that Loney is barely competent at first base. His numbers aren't so bad that they cry out that he should be replaced right away. But it's clear when looking at the riches so many other teams have at first base that the Dodgers are really missing out.
Second Base
1. PHI -- Utley
2. ATL -- Prado
3. FLA -- Uggla
4. MIL -- Lopez
5. ARI -- Roberts
6. LAD -- Hudson
7. NYM -- Castillo
8. PIT -- Young
9. SFG -- Sanchez
10. STL -- Schumaker
11. CIN -- Phillips
12. SDP -- Eckstein
13. COL -- Barmes
14. CHC -- Fontenot
15. WSN -- Gonzalez
16. HOU -- Matsui
There is Utley and then there is everyone else. Not even Pujols dominates his position as thoroughly as Utley does. After Utley there is a big undifferentiated messy mass from about 2-9. You could probably argue for Orlando Hudson to go anywhere in that range, but he settles in at 6. Lately Hudson has been closer to Eckstein than Prado, though.
My favorite part of this list is that Clint Barmes ranks behind the modern day Scrappy Doo, David Eckstein. That's mostly because Barmes can't even manage an OBP of 0.300 playing half his games in Coors Field. Barmes will hit you a few home runs but he's still the same terrible player he's always been.
Shortstop
1. FLA -- Ramirez
2. COL -- Tulowitzki
3. ATL -- Escobar
4. SDP -- Cabrera
5. ARI -- Drew
6. STL -- Ryan
7. HOU -- Tejada
8. CHC -- Theriot
9. WSN -- Guzman
10. LAD -- Furcal
11. PHI -- Rollins
12. MIL -- Hardy
13. SFG -- Renteria
14. PIT -- Cedeno
15. NYM -- Hernandez
16. CIN -- Janish
Hanley Ramirez is another easy call for best at his position. Tulowitzki is having a fine rebound season after slumping last year. After that shortstop falls off pretty quickly offensively. Furcal should be in the top four here and instead can't even crack the top half. At least Furcal beats Rollins, who just can't get on base anymore. J.J. Hardy of the Brewers was recently sent down to the minors by the Brewers, but I decided to use him as their representative anyway and he beat out four others. Sad.
Third Base
1. ARI -- Reynolds
2. SFG -- Sandoval
3. WSN -- Zimmerman
4. NYM -- Wright
5. CHC -- Ramirez
6. ATL -- Jones
7. LAD -- Blake
8. MIL -- McGehee
9. CIN -- Rolen
10. COL -- Stewart
11. SDP -- Kouzmanoff
12. STL -- DeRosa
13. FLA -- Cantu
14. PIT -- LaRoche
15. HOU -- Blum
16. PHI -- Feliz
I had to grit my teeth and put Reynolds number one. Not that the alternative was much better with Sandoval the Giant Panda. If only Zimmerman had continued the great hitting of his first month.
Third base is the most solid position in the National League. None of these players are truly awful. Pedro Feliz of the Phillies is last place but he's not quite a terrible hitter, with an OPS+ of 85. Given how solid third base is I think Casey Blake's seventh place on the list is pretty good. He's the bright spot of a rather average Dodger infield.
Left Field
1. MIL -- Braun
2. STL -- Holliday
3. LAD -- Manny
4. WSN -- Willingham
5. PHI -- Ibanez
6. HOU -- Lee
7. FLA -- Coghlan
8. NYM -- Sheffield
9. CIN -- Nix
10. ATL -- Anderson
11. SDP -- Headley
12. COL -- Spilborghs
13. SFG -- Velez
14. PIT -- Milledge
15. ARI -- Parra
16. CHC -- Soriano
Well, I originally had Manny in first, because he has a pretty clear advantage offensively, but I finally moved him down a bit because of playing time and defense. I suspect that Manny's OPS+ would be a little lower than it is now if he had not been suspended for 50 games.
I have no idea what Jim Tracy is doing over there in Colorado. If he would just install Seth Smith as the regular left fielder he would have the seventh or eighth best left fielder in the NL. Instead he goes with Spilborghs most often, who is a nice defensive player but is not a great hitter. Smith has started just three times in the last two weeks. I don't get it. Maybe Smith reminds Tracy of Hee Sop Choi?
Left Field isn't as strong offensively as I thought it would be. It's kind of surprising to me that old and creaky Gary Sheffield cracked the top half. At the bottom of the ranking you have mega-bust Soriano. Given how Zito has bounced back this year I think Soriano takes over as worst contract.
Center Field
1. LAD -- Kemp ( Hurray! )
2. PIT -- McCutchen
3. MIL -- Cameron
4. CHC -- Fukudome
5. PHI -- Victorino
6. NYM -- Pagan
7. HOU -- Bourn
8. ATL -- McClouth
9. FLA -- Ross
10. SFG -- Rowand
11. WSN -- Morgan
12. COL -- Fowler
13. STL -- Rasmus
14. SDP -- Gwynn
15. ARI -- Young
16. CIN -- Taveras
Carlos Beltran would have taken first if he had been healthy, but he's not, so Matt Kemp wins quite easily. This is not a star studded group ( except for Kemp ) but it's pretty solid up until about Ross or Rowand, after which you start getting into a lot of speedy guys who just can't hit.
You'd think a guy hitting 0.190 would be able to hold down last place in center field, but Chris Young didn't count on Willy Taveras and Dusty Baker's stubborn insistence on playing him ( until a recent injury ). Taveras is the worst regular in the National League this year. How many years has Dusty Baker managed the worst everyday player? It seems like a lot. I'll have to look into that someday.
Right Field
1. ARI -- Upton
2. LAD -- Ethier
3. PHI -- Werth
4. COL -- Hawpe
5. ATL -- Diaz
6. CIN -- Gomes
7. PIT -- Jones
8. HOU -- Pence
9. SDP -- Venable
10. CHC -- Bradley
11. STL -- Ludwick
12. MIL -- Hart
13. FLA -- Hermida
14. SFG -- Schierholtz
15. WSN -- Dukes
16. NYM -- Francoeur
The Snakes are the only team who win two different positions, and yet their offense is still awful! Just look at their ranking in left field (15), center field (15) and first base (16) to see why. There is no need to talk about potential with Justin Upton any more, even though he just turned 22. He's not a prospect anymore. He's arrived. He's a star. He's a superstar. And he will torture the Dodgers for years to come.
At least Ethier will torture those Snakes right back, though perhaps not quite as painfully. Ethier is a star too. He just edges out Werth, giving the Dodgers a clean sweep over the Phillies in the outfield. I think you could argue for Werth over Ethier, but at the other two spots the Dodgers win pretty easily.
Catcher
1. ATL -- McCann
2. ARI -- Montero
3. FLA -- Baker
4. STL -- Y. Molina
5. PHI -- Ruiz
6. COL -- Iannetta
7. LAD -- Martin
8. NYM -- Santos
9. CIN -- Hanigan
10. SFG -- B. Molina
11. SDP -- Hundley
12. CHC -- Soto
13. HOU -- Quintero
14. PIT -- Doumit
15. WSN -- Bard
16. MIL -- Kendall
Remember when McCann and Martin had a little rivalry going for best young catcher in the NL? Not anymore, not this year, anyway. McCann is a clear number one and Martin has fallen back into the pack. Martin's on base percentage keeps him in the top half and keeps him from being a total offensive disaster, but his sub-Pierre slugging percentage is truly disappointing.
Rankings by Team
POS -- C -- 1B -- 2B -- 3B -- SS -- RF -- CF -- LF -- Sum
LAD -- 07 -- 11 -- 06 -- 07 -- 10 -- 02 -- 01 -- 03 -- 47
SFG -- 10 -- 12 -- 09 -- 02 -- 13 -- 14 -- 10 -- 13 -- 83
COL -- 06 -- 09 -- 13 -- 10 -- 02 -- 04 -- 12 -- 12 -- 68
ARI -- 02 -- 16 -- 05 -- 01 -- 05 -- 01 -- 15 -- 15 -- 60
SDP -- 11 -- 02 -- 12 -- 11 -- 04 -- 09 -- 14 -- 11 -- 74
STL -- 04 -- 01 -- 10 -- 12 -- 06 -- 11 -- 13 -- 02 -- 59
CHC -- 12 -- 08 -- 14 -- 05 -- 08 -- 10 -- 04 -- 16 -- 77
MIL -- 16 -- 03 -- 04 -- 08 -- 12 -- 12 -- 03 -- 01 -- 59
HOU -- 13 -- 06 -- 16 -- 15 -- 07 -- 08 -- 07 -- 06 -- 78
CIN -- 09 -- 05 -- 11 -- 09 -- 16 -- 06 -- 16 -- 09 -- 81
PIT -- 14 -- 14 -- 08 -- 14 -- 14 -- 07 -- 02 -- 14 -- 87
PHI -- 05 -- 07 -- 01 -- 16 -- 11 -- 03 -- 05 -- 05 -- 53
ATL -- 01 -- 10 -- 02 -- 06 -- 03 -- 05 -- 08 -- 10 -- 45
FLA -- 03 -- 13 -- 03 -- 13 -- 01 -- 13 -- 09 -- 07 -- 62
NYM -- 08 -- 15 -- 07 -- 04 -- 15 -- 16 -- 06 -- 08 -- 79
WSN -- 15 -- 04 -- 15 -- 03 -- 09 -- 15 -- 11 -- 04 -- 76
Pitching
Tomorrow I'll have starting pitcher rankings, which is fun because first the starters on each team have to be ranked against each other to put them in their proper rotation slots. Chad Billingsley and Cole Hamels both ended up in the three slot!
The rankings are based only on performance this year. These are essentially offensive rankings, though I did consider defense in a few cases. I used 2009 OPS+ values from baseball-reference.com as my primary ranking tool. I also looked at UZR ( a defensive metric available on hardballtimes.com ), raw on-base percentage and plate appearances to differentiate between players in the same range of OPS+. I might use a different statistic if I was doing this again, such as EqA or VoRP or whatever newest alphabet soup stat the traditional sports writers are making fun of these days. I don't think it matters too much, because no matter what I use the rankings will never be perfect. Call them accurate to two spots, high or low.
First Base
1. STL -- Pujols
2. SDP -- Gonzalez
3. MIL -- Fielder
4. WSN -- Dunn
5. CIN -- Votto
6. HOU -- Berkman
7. PHI -- Howard
8. CHC -- Lee
9. COL -- Helton
10. ATL -- LaRoche
11. LAD -- Loney
12. SFG -- Garko
13. FLA -- Gload
14. PIT -- Pearce
15. NYM -- Murphy
16. ARI -- Tracy
First base is the most crowded position, by far. Anyone in the top nine at first would probably make the top three at any other position with the same offensive stats. In fact Dunn would have been number one in right field until the Nats moved him to first base about a month ago.
If new Dodger Jim Thome was able and willing to play first base, then his spot on this list would be --- 11! --- same as James Loney. This even though Thome is much better than Loney at the plate. This is because there is a huge fall-off from Adam LaRoche to Loney, where LaRoche would barely edge out Thome. Similarly Loney barely beats out Garko, while Thome would easily rank ahead of Garko. And then after Garko there is a whole lot of nothing.
I guess what I would say is that Loney is barely competent at first base. His numbers aren't so bad that they cry out that he should be replaced right away. But it's clear when looking at the riches so many other teams have at first base that the Dodgers are really missing out.
Second Base
1. PHI -- Utley
2. ATL -- Prado
3. FLA -- Uggla
4. MIL -- Lopez
5. ARI -- Roberts
6. LAD -- Hudson
7. NYM -- Castillo
8. PIT -- Young
9. SFG -- Sanchez
10. STL -- Schumaker
11. CIN -- Phillips
12. SDP -- Eckstein
13. COL -- Barmes
14. CHC -- Fontenot
15. WSN -- Gonzalez
16. HOU -- Matsui
There is Utley and then there is everyone else. Not even Pujols dominates his position as thoroughly as Utley does. After Utley there is a big undifferentiated messy mass from about 2-9. You could probably argue for Orlando Hudson to go anywhere in that range, but he settles in at 6. Lately Hudson has been closer to Eckstein than Prado, though.
My favorite part of this list is that Clint Barmes ranks behind the modern day Scrappy Doo, David Eckstein. That's mostly because Barmes can't even manage an OBP of 0.300 playing half his games in Coors Field. Barmes will hit you a few home runs but he's still the same terrible player he's always been.
Shortstop
1. FLA -- Ramirez
2. COL -- Tulowitzki
3. ATL -- Escobar
4. SDP -- Cabrera
5. ARI -- Drew
6. STL -- Ryan
7. HOU -- Tejada
8. CHC -- Theriot
9. WSN -- Guzman
10. LAD -- Furcal
11. PHI -- Rollins
12. MIL -- Hardy
13. SFG -- Renteria
14. PIT -- Cedeno
15. NYM -- Hernandez
16. CIN -- Janish
Hanley Ramirez is another easy call for best at his position. Tulowitzki is having a fine rebound season after slumping last year. After that shortstop falls off pretty quickly offensively. Furcal should be in the top four here and instead can't even crack the top half. At least Furcal beats Rollins, who just can't get on base anymore. J.J. Hardy of the Brewers was recently sent down to the minors by the Brewers, but I decided to use him as their representative anyway and he beat out four others. Sad.
Third Base
1. ARI -- Reynolds
2. SFG -- Sandoval
3. WSN -- Zimmerman
4. NYM -- Wright
5. CHC -- Ramirez
6. ATL -- Jones
7. LAD -- Blake
8. MIL -- McGehee
9. CIN -- Rolen
10. COL -- Stewart
11. SDP -- Kouzmanoff
12. STL -- DeRosa
13. FLA -- Cantu
14. PIT -- LaRoche
15. HOU -- Blum
16. PHI -- Feliz
I had to grit my teeth and put Reynolds number one. Not that the alternative was much better with Sandoval the Giant Panda. If only Zimmerman had continued the great hitting of his first month.
Third base is the most solid position in the National League. None of these players are truly awful. Pedro Feliz of the Phillies is last place but he's not quite a terrible hitter, with an OPS+ of 85. Given how solid third base is I think Casey Blake's seventh place on the list is pretty good. He's the bright spot of a rather average Dodger infield.
Left Field
1. MIL -- Braun
2. STL -- Holliday
3. LAD -- Manny
4. WSN -- Willingham
5. PHI -- Ibanez
6. HOU -- Lee
7. FLA -- Coghlan
8. NYM -- Sheffield
9. CIN -- Nix
10. ATL -- Anderson
11. SDP -- Headley
12. COL -- Spilborghs
13. SFG -- Velez
14. PIT -- Milledge
15. ARI -- Parra
16. CHC -- Soriano
Well, I originally had Manny in first, because he has a pretty clear advantage offensively, but I finally moved him down a bit because of playing time and defense. I suspect that Manny's OPS+ would be a little lower than it is now if he had not been suspended for 50 games.
I have no idea what Jim Tracy is doing over there in Colorado. If he would just install Seth Smith as the regular left fielder he would have the seventh or eighth best left fielder in the NL. Instead he goes with Spilborghs most often, who is a nice defensive player but is not a great hitter. Smith has started just three times in the last two weeks. I don't get it. Maybe Smith reminds Tracy of Hee Sop Choi?
Left Field isn't as strong offensively as I thought it would be. It's kind of surprising to me that old and creaky Gary Sheffield cracked the top half. At the bottom of the ranking you have mega-bust Soriano. Given how Zito has bounced back this year I think Soriano takes over as worst contract.
Center Field
1. LAD -- Kemp ( Hurray! )
2. PIT -- McCutchen
3. MIL -- Cameron
4. CHC -- Fukudome
5. PHI -- Victorino
6. NYM -- Pagan
7. HOU -- Bourn
8. ATL -- McClouth
9. FLA -- Ross
10. SFG -- Rowand
11. WSN -- Morgan
12. COL -- Fowler
13. STL -- Rasmus
14. SDP -- Gwynn
15. ARI -- Young
16. CIN -- Taveras
Carlos Beltran would have taken first if he had been healthy, but he's not, so Matt Kemp wins quite easily. This is not a star studded group ( except for Kemp ) but it's pretty solid up until about Ross or Rowand, after which you start getting into a lot of speedy guys who just can't hit.
You'd think a guy hitting 0.190 would be able to hold down last place in center field, but Chris Young didn't count on Willy Taveras and Dusty Baker's stubborn insistence on playing him ( until a recent injury ). Taveras is the worst regular in the National League this year. How many years has Dusty Baker managed the worst everyday player? It seems like a lot. I'll have to look into that someday.
Right Field
1. ARI -- Upton
2. LAD -- Ethier
3. PHI -- Werth
4. COL -- Hawpe
5. ATL -- Diaz
6. CIN -- Gomes
7. PIT -- Jones
8. HOU -- Pence
9. SDP -- Venable
10. CHC -- Bradley
11. STL -- Ludwick
12. MIL -- Hart
13. FLA -- Hermida
14. SFG -- Schierholtz
15. WSN -- Dukes
16. NYM -- Francoeur
The Snakes are the only team who win two different positions, and yet their offense is still awful! Just look at their ranking in left field (15), center field (15) and first base (16) to see why. There is no need to talk about potential with Justin Upton any more, even though he just turned 22. He's not a prospect anymore. He's arrived. He's a star. He's a superstar. And he will torture the Dodgers for years to come.
At least Ethier will torture those Snakes right back, though perhaps not quite as painfully. Ethier is a star too. He just edges out Werth, giving the Dodgers a clean sweep over the Phillies in the outfield. I think you could argue for Werth over Ethier, but at the other two spots the Dodgers win pretty easily.
Catcher
1. ATL -- McCann
2. ARI -- Montero
3. FLA -- Baker
4. STL -- Y. Molina
5. PHI -- Ruiz
6. COL -- Iannetta
7. LAD -- Martin
8. NYM -- Santos
9. CIN -- Hanigan
10. SFG -- B. Molina
11. SDP -- Hundley
12. CHC -- Soto
13. HOU -- Quintero
14. PIT -- Doumit
15. WSN -- Bard
16. MIL -- Kendall
Remember when McCann and Martin had a little rivalry going for best young catcher in the NL? Not anymore, not this year, anyway. McCann is a clear number one and Martin has fallen back into the pack. Martin's on base percentage keeps him in the top half and keeps him from being a total offensive disaster, but his sub-Pierre slugging percentage is truly disappointing.
Rankings by Team
POS -- C -- 1B -- 2B -- 3B -- SS -- RF -- CF -- LF -- Sum
LAD -- 07 -- 11 -- 06 -- 07 -- 10 -- 02 -- 01 -- 03 -- 47
SFG -- 10 -- 12 -- 09 -- 02 -- 13 -- 14 -- 10 -- 13 -- 83
COL -- 06 -- 09 -- 13 -- 10 -- 02 -- 04 -- 12 -- 12 -- 68
ARI -- 02 -- 16 -- 05 -- 01 -- 05 -- 01 -- 15 -- 15 -- 60
SDP -- 11 -- 02 -- 12 -- 11 -- 04 -- 09 -- 14 -- 11 -- 74
STL -- 04 -- 01 -- 10 -- 12 -- 06 -- 11 -- 13 -- 02 -- 59
CHC -- 12 -- 08 -- 14 -- 05 -- 08 -- 10 -- 04 -- 16 -- 77
MIL -- 16 -- 03 -- 04 -- 08 -- 12 -- 12 -- 03 -- 01 -- 59
HOU -- 13 -- 06 -- 16 -- 15 -- 07 -- 08 -- 07 -- 06 -- 78
CIN -- 09 -- 05 -- 11 -- 09 -- 16 -- 06 -- 16 -- 09 -- 81
PIT -- 14 -- 14 -- 08 -- 14 -- 14 -- 07 -- 02 -- 14 -- 87
PHI -- 05 -- 07 -- 01 -- 16 -- 11 -- 03 -- 05 -- 05 -- 53
ATL -- 01 -- 10 -- 02 -- 06 -- 03 -- 05 -- 08 -- 10 -- 45
FLA -- 03 -- 13 -- 03 -- 13 -- 01 -- 13 -- 09 -- 07 -- 62
NYM -- 08 -- 15 -- 07 -- 04 -- 15 -- 16 -- 06 -- 08 -- 79
WSN -- 15 -- 04 -- 15 -- 03 -- 09 -- 15 -- 11 -- 04 -- 76
Pitching
Tomorrow I'll have starting pitcher rankings, which is fun because first the starters on each team have to be ranked against each other to put them in their proper rotation slots. Chad Billingsley and Cole Hamels both ended up in the three slot!
Reliever Revulsion
Why couldn't Sherrill have given up his first run when the Dodgers had a multiple-run lead or something? At least he didn't give it up in a tie game. The first truth is Sherrill wasn't really pitching well enough not to be giving up no runs, so this was coming. Though I guess it was coming no matter how well he was pitching, since everyone gives up runs occasionally, even the best.
Is my revulsion for the relievers? Or is it for the expectation that they must always be perfect, and that if they are not they will take the blame? The second truth is the Dodger offense was the primary culprit for that loss last night. They were the prime movers, or the prime non-movers, actually. It was Archimedes who said, "Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I will move the world". And it is I who says, "Give me a Dodger team who stops hitting for long enough, and a sofa on which to place my butt, and I will fall asleep on the sofa while they lose in extra innings".
I did not actually fall asleep. That wouldn't have happened even if there hadn't been all the exciting trade news. Thome! Garland! You could have knocked me over with a Mark Hendrickson fastball after Vinny announced the Thome trade over the air. Whether the trades end up working out or not at least I always enjoy the initial rush of getting a name player. I do --- perhaps I should be ashamed of that. I'm a sucker for name players, for the thrill of imagining what great things that player will do. Wow, Thome, he'll play first base and hit 20 home runs! He's still just 30, right? Maybe they could put him in the outfield if Manny needs a day off! And so on. The third truth is Thome will be a near non-factor for the Dodgers if all he does is pinch hit. Unless they get to the World Series and he gets his chance to hit without fielding. The Dodgers didn't really give up anything to get Thome, and it does improve the bench, so I do approve of the trade, but the final effect of the trade is likely to be closer to zero than some would imagine.
I'm excited to get Garland because years ago the Dodgers were rumored to be interested in trading for him and I kind of wanted him then and I figure better late than never. I'm not excited about the prospect the Dodgers probably had to give up to get him, whoever it is. I don't care about the salary relief the Dodgers get along with Garland. I'm sure management loves that, but it's not my money so I'd rather the Dodgers kept the better prospect, paid for Garland's salary themselves, and gave up a lesser prospect. The fourth truth is that money is the most important consideration for team owners. Most of them, anyway. I can't really blame them for that, I guess.
Game 132 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
McDonald -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Blake -- 1
It's the fault of the Dodger offense that the game was lost, but even so McDonald can't avoid an unfair loss share after giving up two runs and nearly a bushel more in the tenth inning. A dishonorary unfair loss share goes to every Dodger hitter who meekly went out in the bottom of the tenth inning, preventing even the false hope of Ethier coming up as the tying run.
Game 132 Unfair Win Shares ( Snakes )
Vasquez -- 1
Upton -- 1
Ojeda -- 1
If not for Justin Upton, Andre Ethier would be the best right fielder in the National League this year. I have a great big post coming up later today in which I rank all the National League starting players by position. It's gonna be fun on the bun!
Is my revulsion for the relievers? Or is it for the expectation that they must always be perfect, and that if they are not they will take the blame? The second truth is the Dodger offense was the primary culprit for that loss last night. They were the prime movers, or the prime non-movers, actually. It was Archimedes who said, "Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I will move the world". And it is I who says, "Give me a Dodger team who stops hitting for long enough, and a sofa on which to place my butt, and I will fall asleep on the sofa while they lose in extra innings".
I did not actually fall asleep. That wouldn't have happened even if there hadn't been all the exciting trade news. Thome! Garland! You could have knocked me over with a Mark Hendrickson fastball after Vinny announced the Thome trade over the air. Whether the trades end up working out or not at least I always enjoy the initial rush of getting a name player. I do --- perhaps I should be ashamed of that. I'm a sucker for name players, for the thrill of imagining what great things that player will do. Wow, Thome, he'll play first base and hit 20 home runs! He's still just 30, right? Maybe they could put him in the outfield if Manny needs a day off! And so on. The third truth is Thome will be a near non-factor for the Dodgers if all he does is pinch hit. Unless they get to the World Series and he gets his chance to hit without fielding. The Dodgers didn't really give up anything to get Thome, and it does improve the bench, so I do approve of the trade, but the final effect of the trade is likely to be closer to zero than some would imagine.
I'm excited to get Garland because years ago the Dodgers were rumored to be interested in trading for him and I kind of wanted him then and I figure better late than never. I'm not excited about the prospect the Dodgers probably had to give up to get him, whoever it is. I don't care about the salary relief the Dodgers get along with Garland. I'm sure management loves that, but it's not my money so I'd rather the Dodgers kept the better prospect, paid for Garland's salary themselves, and gave up a lesser prospect. The fourth truth is that money is the most important consideration for team owners. Most of them, anyway. I can't really blame them for that, I guess.
Game 132 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
McDonald -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Blake -- 1
It's the fault of the Dodger offense that the game was lost, but even so McDonald can't avoid an unfair loss share after giving up two runs and nearly a bushel more in the tenth inning. A dishonorary unfair loss share goes to every Dodger hitter who meekly went out in the bottom of the tenth inning, preventing even the false hope of Ethier coming up as the tying run.
Game 132 Unfair Win Shares ( Snakes )
Vasquez -- 1
Upton -- 1
Ojeda -- 1
If not for Justin Upton, Andre Ethier would be the best right fielder in the National League this year. I have a great big post coming up later today in which I rank all the National League starting players by position. It's gonna be fun on the bun!
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