By Griffster
Hendrickson's time in the rotation has reached midnight, and with the stroke of the bell, he turned into a pumpkin. Will Little wait for dawn, which means at least four more losses by Hendrickson, going by my remark that Hendrickson will have to lose at least five in a row before they'd even consider demoting him? ( Not counting ineffective outings that get hung on the bullpen, here ) Or will we see Billingsley in the rotation at some point in the first half of the year?
The Dodgers did splendidly against the past two teams in red they faced, but the third was just too much. Perhaps mostly because this third team happened to be an AL team and the Dodgers have gone 1-19 in their last 20 road interleague games. Bad. I wonder if the Dodgers feel weird with a DH in their team, if they enjoy having the pitcher hit? Do they enjoy suffering and scratching out runs, instead of going "Yay DH!" and piling them up? Little's managed in the AL before, you'd think he knows how to handle the DH.
As a side note, the Dodgers' inability to win in AL parks suggests that, even if they reach the World Series somehow ( and I do not think this team has a good chance of doing that unless they start leaving less runners on ) they will probably be swept out of the door.
It is too early in the season to even speak of the postseason though, so, back to last night's game:
Hendrickson issued a troublesome leadoff walk. Aybar's hit would not have been a hit had Kent not broke to cover second on the hit and run - which he wouldn't have done had that runner not been on.
Has issuing leadoff walks been a problem for the Dodgers this year? Well, I had Penny's leadoff walk from two days ago coming round to score in mind, so I went digging and found:
The Dodgers have issued 23 leadoff walks this year, and of those 10 scored.
The Dodgers have been issued 27 leadoff walks this year, of which 11 scored.
( Notable is the May 6 game against Atlanta, in which Harris walked and scored on a double. The score was 4-2 Dodgers at that point, but three two-out hits makes the score 6-4 after the inning. That was a walked that hurt a lot. Also, on May 4th a two-out double scored two more, after another leadoff walk. Leadoff walks can have deeper repercussions than just that runner scoring. )
The ratio is a bit worse for the Dodgers than their opponents, ( 43% of opponent leadoff walks score, and the Dodgers score 40% of their own leadoff walks ) but this small sample size doesn't indicate the Dodgers to be much better or much worse than other teams. What is does show is that issuing a leadoff walk is not a bright idea, because the odds of it scoring is quite good - but we knew that already.
I also noticed that both yesterday's game and today's were really cracked by one big inning allowed. Can we try to do that less please, Dodger pitchers? You know the "offense" is not good enough to get all those runs back. Our veterans make too many first pitch outs and the lineup as a whole doesn't hit that well with runners on! ( Come to think of that, I will analyse that last remark more. It does feel as if every first pitch hit by Kent, Gonzalez and Nomar results in an out, but I know that is a skewered perspective. ( Also a skewed perspective! ) Watch this space. I will report back on whether it is a good thing that they swing thusly, or not. And I will also report on how often they go first strike swinging, and what good that does them. )
Lastly: oh hey, remember me babbling about a 5-1 home stand back when I really wanted the Dodgers to just win a couple in a row? Got my wish. I guess I'd better start wishing really hard that the Dodgers have another 5-1 home stand!
20 May 2007
18 May 2007
The Dismal Game
by Joshua Worley
Economics is sometimes called the "dismal science", given its often grim predictions. I think that perhaps baseball should be called the "dismal game".
The numbers in baseball can be relentlessly grim. As much as we may want to believe in the human spirit, in the ability to rise above one's previous limitations, over the long haul the numbers tell us what will happen. Penny wasn't really as good as a sub 1.5 ERA. Hendrickson couldn't really turn it around and suddenly become a good pitcher. There are smart people out there who can tell you in great detail why these things are so, how the great mass of previous performances prove that players don't really change their ablity, not in the way we'd often like to think, not in the way sportswriters like to talk about.
It must be especially dismal to be the fan of a bad team, and know that they can't be good, no matter what they do. It's one of the great philosophical questions: is false hope better or grim, realistic despair better? How comforting it might be to believe that winning is just a matter of playing harder, getting the right chemistry in the clubhouse, getting that one new guy to put you over the top ... I think most fans of truly hopeless teams don't think this way, though. They've got to know. They've seen the losing year after year, seen managers come and go with different styles. It's always about the talent, and in the end the numbers reveal who has the talent and who doesn't.
I wished that the Dodgers might be a great team when they started out so well, but I knew they really weren't. The numbers for these players just aren't there. Sometimes I think the numbers aren't really there for this to even be a good team over the entire season. The pitching will get worse ... the offense will collapse without homeruns ... these are the quiet whispers of dread. Dismal reminders lurking behind bad losses such as the one we just had.
These dimal thoughts won't last. For a hour, a day, a week of bad losses, I may think of baseball as the dismal game. But deep down I know, and I always come back to this: Baseball is the Joyous Game. Even the bad teams win. Even the weak players will hit their homeruns, occasionally. The numbers are powerless over any one game. Even in a loss you can remember something you never saw before, and smile. I'd never seen a player fumble a ball into the dugout while trying to throw. That was cool, the way it just whipped right out of Figgins's hand like some jokester was holding a baseball magnet just off camera. I loved the way both managers came out of the dugouts and each had their own little ump cluster; I hoped that each manager would convince his own ump cluster he was right and get the umps to turn on each other; or alternatively I hoped Little and Scioscia would dispense with arguing with the umps and go right to arguing with each other. What fun, and we get to do it tomorrow and try to erase the nasty taste of this game. Maybe Hendrickson will find his April form again and continue to defy his grim numbers. Maybe something else equally preposterous will happen.
Still, I'm keeping the title I started with. There are ups and downs to real life, and there are ups and downs to baseball life. Tonight is a down for Dodger fans. I'm not going to pretend it isn't. Tonight was the dismal game, but tomorrow is a new day. May the joyous game return again.
Economics is sometimes called the "dismal science", given its often grim predictions. I think that perhaps baseball should be called the "dismal game".
The numbers in baseball can be relentlessly grim. As much as we may want to believe in the human spirit, in the ability to rise above one's previous limitations, over the long haul the numbers tell us what will happen. Penny wasn't really as good as a sub 1.5 ERA. Hendrickson couldn't really turn it around and suddenly become a good pitcher. There are smart people out there who can tell you in great detail why these things are so, how the great mass of previous performances prove that players don't really change their ablity, not in the way we'd often like to think, not in the way sportswriters like to talk about.
It must be especially dismal to be the fan of a bad team, and know that they can't be good, no matter what they do. It's one of the great philosophical questions: is false hope better or grim, realistic despair better? How comforting it might be to believe that winning is just a matter of playing harder, getting the right chemistry in the clubhouse, getting that one new guy to put you over the top ... I think most fans of truly hopeless teams don't think this way, though. They've got to know. They've seen the losing year after year, seen managers come and go with different styles. It's always about the talent, and in the end the numbers reveal who has the talent and who doesn't.
I wished that the Dodgers might be a great team when they started out so well, but I knew they really weren't. The numbers for these players just aren't there. Sometimes I think the numbers aren't really there for this to even be a good team over the entire season. The pitching will get worse ... the offense will collapse without homeruns ... these are the quiet whispers of dread. Dismal reminders lurking behind bad losses such as the one we just had.
These dimal thoughts won't last. For a hour, a day, a week of bad losses, I may think of baseball as the dismal game. But deep down I know, and I always come back to this: Baseball is the Joyous Game. Even the bad teams win. Even the weak players will hit their homeruns, occasionally. The numbers are powerless over any one game. Even in a loss you can remember something you never saw before, and smile. I'd never seen a player fumble a ball into the dugout while trying to throw. That was cool, the way it just whipped right out of Figgins's hand like some jokester was holding a baseball magnet just off camera. I loved the way both managers came out of the dugouts and each had their own little ump cluster; I hoped that each manager would convince his own ump cluster he was right and get the umps to turn on each other; or alternatively I hoped Little and Scioscia would dispense with arguing with the umps and go right to arguing with each other. What fun, and we get to do it tomorrow and try to erase the nasty taste of this game. Maybe Hendrickson will find his April form again and continue to defy his grim numbers. Maybe something else equally preposterous will happen.
Still, I'm keeping the title I started with. There are ups and downs to real life, and there are ups and downs to baseball life. Tonight is a down for Dodger fans. I'm not going to pretend it isn't. Tonight was the dismal game, but tomorrow is a new day. May the joyous game return again.
Angels Preview: Just like the Dodgers, only with awful announcers
by Joshua Worley
Like the Dodgers, the Angels win with very good pitching and average offense. They're about average in the AL in run scoring, but third from best in team ERA. They have a record of 24-18, with a 186-162 run differential.The problem for the Dodgers in this series is that they are sending their two worst starters in to face the Angels. Not anymore, as Lowe has been moved from a Monday start to a Sunday start. The following sentence is now half irrelevant, though still true, so I won't strike it out: None of the Angels starters are as bad as Tomko or Hendrickson ( at least at home ).
Friday: Penny v Santana
The Dodgers better win this one, because the next two games look very iffy.
Saturday: Hendrickson v Weaver
How soon until Jered Weaver turns into his brother? Probably not soon enough.
Sunday:Tomko Lowe v Escobar
I hope the 12 strikeouts in 6 innings version of Tomko shows up. Then again, maybe Tomko needs to stink again so that we can finally get Billingsley in the rotation.
Stupid Dodgers, juggling pitchers at the last minute. Now it's Lowe, but I'm still worried. He's been a bit iffy at times this season.
Angels lineup:
LF -- Willits
SS -- Cabrera
RF -- Guerrero
CF -- Matthews
1B -- Kotchman
After the first five, you get a randomly assembled crap casserole made of some combination of the following:
2B -- Aybar
2B/3B -- Izturis
3B -- Figgins
DH -- Hillenbrand
DH -- Quinlan
C -- Napoli
C -- Molina
Player Capsules:
Vladimir Alvino Guerrero
age: 31
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.351 -- 0.461 -- 0.664
Vlad's weakness has always been that he was a free-swinger, that he would swing at pitches anywhere, and so wouldn't take as many walks as he might otherwise get with his power and batting eye. But this has also been his strength: there is really nowhere safe to pitch him. Checking espn.com's scouting report on him, the only semi-safe places to pitch him are down and away and up and in, while he chases at least 30% of pitches in every non-strike batting sector.
It's not that Vlad doesn't walk, though. Over his career he's walked about 9% of the time, which is respectable. Coupled with his usual batting average of around 0.325, this has given him an on-base percentage of close to 0.400 every year, which of course is great, especially to go along with his power numbers. But this year he's doing even better. On his current pace he'll draw over 100 walks for the first time in his career; if he keeps all his current batting percentages they'd be the best of his career as well. Of course we've only gone through a quarter of the season, so he probably won't keep up these paces.
Nevertheless, Vlad comes into this series against the Dodgers in a state opposite that of the last great slugger the Dodgers faced. Pujols was out of sorts, and didn't do much in the series against the Dodgers, going 3-14 with no walks and no home runs.. They'll have a much harder time containing Vlad.
Gary Nathaniel Matthews Jr.
age: 32
bats: switch
0.297 -- 0.358 -- 0.468
He started the year batting leadoff, but he's since been moved down to cleanup to bat right after Vlad. I think this is the right move, to take advantage of all of Vlad's walks with some power behind him. Other than Matthews and Vlad there really isn't much power on the Angels: they account for 16 of the team's 29 home runs.
So far Matthews is following up his career year of 2006 nicely. Is it the HGH? Well, by most accounts I've read there's no evidence that HGH actually helps you play baseball. If Matthews really has used it, he's guilty of cheating, but not necessarily guilty of unnatural performance. I'm not even sure I consider his jump in performance last year to be that big. His OPS's since 2002: 0.782 -- 0.675 -- 0.811 -- 0.756 -- 0.866. Sure, it looks like the Angels overpaid for him, but those numbers look a lot like regular career fluctuation to me. Of course most players don't have their best year at age 31, but it does happen.
Casey John Kotchman
age: 24
bats: left
0.254 -- 0.326 -- 0.405
He has Snakes' prospect disease! An aged 24 can't miss prospect struggling to start the 2007 campaign, just like the big four of Arizona.
He's not hitting that poorly, but these aren't the numbers you want from your first baseman. His line is actually very close to the line Angels allow their opponents: 0.251 -- 0.317 -- 0.390. The Angels are a winning team because of their pitching, so this isn't a good sign. He doesn't hit much or play much against lefties yet. Robb Quinlan gets most of the starts against southpaws.
Orlando Luis Cabrera
age: 32
bats: right
0.293 -- 0.346 -- 0.390
These are servicable numbers from a shortstop and number 2 hitter. They're a lot better than the stats of the guys who flank him on the infield.
Reggie Gene Willits
age: 25
bats: switch
0.366 -- 0.449 -- 0.409
He put up a 0.448 OBP in AAA last year. For the moment the Angels have found their leadoff hitter, though he's still only had 109 plate appearances. There's still plenty of time for him to turn into a pumpkin; when that batting average drops his line won't look that good for a corner outfielder. In the meantime the Dodgers big task is to keep Willits and Cabrera off the bases ahead of the Angels' only real power threats in Vlad and Matthews. Willits has no home runs and a mere four doubles so far, so there is simply no excuse for walking him; make him beat you with a single rather than put him on.
Willits got his chance when Garret Anderson went on the DL; he may keep the job even when Garret comes back.
Desmond DeChone Figgins
age: 29
bats: switch
0.121 -- 0.177 -- 0.172
I'd say the most rewarding part of doing this blog is seeing all the goofy middle names players have. DeChone is my new favorite, easily.
Figgins started the season on the DL with two broken fingers. He says his fingers are still sore, and has struggled both in the field and at the plate with a line that looks like it belongs to Kevin Kouzmanoff.
If you hit like a pitcher, you get to bat where a pitcher bats. That's why he normally bats ninth. The Dodgers better not let him get on base more than once in the series.
Erick Johan Aybar
age: 23
bats: switch
0.262 -- 0.296 -- 0.291
He's more or less the regular second baseman while hot-hitting Howie Kendrick is out with injury. Pity, because Aybar isn't much of a hitter, at least not yet. Kendrick is on a rehab assignment in AAA right now, but Scioscia has ruled out Kendrick appearing with the big club anytime in the Dodger series.
Michael Anthony Napoli
age: 25
bats: right
0.221 -- 0.295 -- 0.395
More than half of his hits go for extra bases so far this year. Last year he had an OPS of 0.815 with a 0.228 batting average; this year he's not quite managing the same trick. The Dodgers need to watch out for him, though. He could easily turn one of these games by doubling in a couple runners. Since it will usually be some combination of Aybar, Hillenbrand and Izturis batting in the two spots ahead of him, there won't ever be an excuse for letting him double with two men on.
Jose Benjamin Molina
age: 31
bats: right
0.214 -- 0.228 -- 0.250
This looks like a Cardinal's batting line, though to be fair it's much worse than his brother's. I think the Dodgers will be happy when he starts instead of Napoli.
Shea Matthew Hillenbrand
age: 31
bats: right
0.226 -- 0.244 -- 0.266
When asked about Shea's sorry production in the DH spot, Angels manager Mike Scioscia said: "I'm still confident that Shea's upside is our best option, and our goal is to see if Shea can be the player we think he can be."
Whatever.
Maicer E. Izturis
age: 26
bats: switch
0.241 -- 0.292 -- 0.322
Another Angels switch hitter. A lot of good it's doing most of these guys.
Is there a problem with getting the full middle name of players from the Carribean and Latin America? I think the State Department needs to look into this. That E is so enticing. Does it stand for Eliezer? Elpido? Elrond? Elthazaar? I want to know, dammit.
Little Izturis has a home run this year, by the way. Good for him. Come on, Juan Pierre! If this squib can hit one, so can you.
Robb William Quinlan
age: 30
bats: right
0.244 -- 0.261 -- 0.400
He's like, the back up DH in case the regular DH sucks. The regular DH has an OPS of 0.510, and he's only had 45 at bats. Hey, wait a minute!
Kelvim Jose Escobar
age: 31
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.35 -- 43 -- 32 -- 12 -- 2
I had no idea: he's had a sub-4 ERA since 2004 when he came to the Angels. Just a solid pitcher.
He got hammered in his last start, giving up 8 runs to the Mariners. His quote about his performance: "It seemed like everything I threw, they hit." Sounds like a good plan for the Dodgers.
Ervin Ramon Santana
age: 24
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.51 -- 47.1 -- 37 -- 19 -- 11
Let me just say again what the line above says: he's given up 11 home runs. Ouch.
His pitching hasn't lived up to the name Santana so far. Heck, it hasn't lived up to the name Ramon. Ervin's home/road splits are by now legendary. This season his home ERA is 2.57; on the road it's 7.86. It's a similarly wide gap for his career stats. His strikeout rate doesn't change when he goes on the road; it's the walk and home run rates that shoot up.
Freaky stat of the moment: Santana pitched 204.0 innings in 2006 and 133.2 in 2005. In those two years, he pitched 204.0 innings at home and 133.2 on the road.
The bad news for the Dodgers is that Santana will be at home for this start. The good news is they will counter home-Santana with first-half-Penny. It's a battle of the Jekyll and Hyde pitchers!
Jered David Weaver
age: 24
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.62 -- 32.1 -- 30 -- 12 -- 3
He's been great his last four starts. The Dodgers counter him with Hendrickson. Not good times.
He's a fly ball pitcher. If the Dodgers have a hope of getting to him, it might be with some home runs. I'd like to see both Betemit and Saenz play in the game against him; LaRoche and can ride the pine for this one.
Prediction for Series:
Dodgers win 2 of 3 behind wins by Penny in game 1 and the bullpen in game 2. Betemit and Saenz homer in the series.Tomko is bombed but says he thought his pitches were fine. Lowe struggles for the second straight game and this time the offense can't bail him out. Tomko has to wait until Monday to say he thought his crappy pitches were fine.
Like the Dodgers, the Angels win with very good pitching and average offense. They're about average in the AL in run scoring, but third from best in team ERA. They have a record of 24-18, with a 186-162 run differential.
Friday: Penny v Santana
The Dodgers better win this one, because the next two games look very iffy.
Saturday: Hendrickson v Weaver
How soon until Jered Weaver turns into his brother? Probably not soon enough.
Sunday:
Stupid Dodgers, juggling pitchers at the last minute. Now it's Lowe, but I'm still worried. He's been a bit iffy at times this season.
Angels lineup:
LF -- Willits
SS -- Cabrera
RF -- Guerrero
CF -- Matthews
1B -- Kotchman
After the first five, you get a randomly assembled crap casserole made of some combination of the following:
2B -- Aybar
2B/3B -- Izturis
3B -- Figgins
DH -- Hillenbrand
DH -- Quinlan
C -- Napoli
C -- Molina
Player Capsules:
Vladimir Alvino Guerrero
age: 31
bats: right
AVG -- OBP -- SLG
0.351 -- 0.461 -- 0.664
Vlad's weakness has always been that he was a free-swinger, that he would swing at pitches anywhere, and so wouldn't take as many walks as he might otherwise get with his power and batting eye. But this has also been his strength: there is really nowhere safe to pitch him. Checking espn.com's scouting report on him, the only semi-safe places to pitch him are down and away and up and in, while he chases at least 30% of pitches in every non-strike batting sector.
It's not that Vlad doesn't walk, though. Over his career he's walked about 9% of the time, which is respectable. Coupled with his usual batting average of around 0.325, this has given him an on-base percentage of close to 0.400 every year, which of course is great, especially to go along with his power numbers. But this year he's doing even better. On his current pace he'll draw over 100 walks for the first time in his career; if he keeps all his current batting percentages they'd be the best of his career as well. Of course we've only gone through a quarter of the season, so he probably won't keep up these paces.
Nevertheless, Vlad comes into this series against the Dodgers in a state opposite that of the last great slugger the Dodgers faced. Pujols was out of sorts, and didn't do much in the series against the Dodgers, going 3-14 with no walks and no home runs.. They'll have a much harder time containing Vlad.
Gary Nathaniel Matthews Jr.
age: 32
bats: switch
0.297 -- 0.358 -- 0.468
He started the year batting leadoff, but he's since been moved down to cleanup to bat right after Vlad. I think this is the right move, to take advantage of all of Vlad's walks with some power behind him. Other than Matthews and Vlad there really isn't much power on the Angels: they account for 16 of the team's 29 home runs.
So far Matthews is following up his career year of 2006 nicely. Is it the HGH? Well, by most accounts I've read there's no evidence that HGH actually helps you play baseball. If Matthews really has used it, he's guilty of cheating, but not necessarily guilty of unnatural performance. I'm not even sure I consider his jump in performance last year to be that big. His OPS's since 2002: 0.782 -- 0.675 -- 0.811 -- 0.756 -- 0.866. Sure, it looks like the Angels overpaid for him, but those numbers look a lot like regular career fluctuation to me. Of course most players don't have their best year at age 31, but it does happen.
Casey John Kotchman
age: 24
bats: left
0.254 -- 0.326 -- 0.405
He has Snakes' prospect disease! An aged 24 can't miss prospect struggling to start the 2007 campaign, just like the big four of Arizona.
He's not hitting that poorly, but these aren't the numbers you want from your first baseman. His line is actually very close to the line Angels allow their opponents: 0.251 -- 0.317 -- 0.390. The Angels are a winning team because of their pitching, so this isn't a good sign. He doesn't hit much or play much against lefties yet. Robb Quinlan gets most of the starts against southpaws.
Orlando Luis Cabrera
age: 32
bats: right
0.293 -- 0.346 -- 0.390
These are servicable numbers from a shortstop and number 2 hitter. They're a lot better than the stats of the guys who flank him on the infield.
Reggie Gene Willits
age: 25
bats: switch
0.366 -- 0.449 -- 0.409
He put up a 0.448 OBP in AAA last year. For the moment the Angels have found their leadoff hitter, though he's still only had 109 plate appearances. There's still plenty of time for him to turn into a pumpkin; when that batting average drops his line won't look that good for a corner outfielder. In the meantime the Dodgers big task is to keep Willits and Cabrera off the bases ahead of the Angels' only real power threats in Vlad and Matthews. Willits has no home runs and a mere four doubles so far, so there is simply no excuse for walking him; make him beat you with a single rather than put him on.
Willits got his chance when Garret Anderson went on the DL; he may keep the job even when Garret comes back.
Desmond DeChone Figgins
age: 29
bats: switch
0.121 -- 0.177 -- 0.172
I'd say the most rewarding part of doing this blog is seeing all the goofy middle names players have. DeChone is my new favorite, easily.
Figgins started the season on the DL with two broken fingers. He says his fingers are still sore, and has struggled both in the field and at the plate with a line that looks like it belongs to Kevin Kouzmanoff.
If you hit like a pitcher, you get to bat where a pitcher bats. That's why he normally bats ninth. The Dodgers better not let him get on base more than once in the series.
Erick Johan Aybar
age: 23
bats: switch
0.262 -- 0.296 -- 0.291
He's more or less the regular second baseman while hot-hitting Howie Kendrick is out with injury. Pity, because Aybar isn't much of a hitter, at least not yet. Kendrick is on a rehab assignment in AAA right now, but Scioscia has ruled out Kendrick appearing with the big club anytime in the Dodger series.
Michael Anthony Napoli
age: 25
bats: right
0.221 -- 0.295 -- 0.395
More than half of his hits go for extra bases so far this year. Last year he had an OPS of 0.815 with a 0.228 batting average; this year he's not quite managing the same trick. The Dodgers need to watch out for him, though. He could easily turn one of these games by doubling in a couple runners. Since it will usually be some combination of Aybar, Hillenbrand and Izturis batting in the two spots ahead of him, there won't ever be an excuse for letting him double with two men on.
Jose Benjamin Molina
age: 31
bats: right
0.214 -- 0.228 -- 0.250
This looks like a Cardinal's batting line, though to be fair it's much worse than his brother's. I think the Dodgers will be happy when he starts instead of Napoli.
Shea Matthew Hillenbrand
age: 31
bats: right
0.226 -- 0.244 -- 0.266
When asked about Shea's sorry production in the DH spot, Angels manager Mike Scioscia said: "I'm still confident that Shea's upside is our best option, and our goal is to see if Shea can be the player we think he can be."
Whatever.
Maicer E. Izturis
age: 26
bats: switch
0.241 -- 0.292 -- 0.322
Another Angels switch hitter. A lot of good it's doing most of these guys.
Is there a problem with getting the full middle name of players from the Carribean and Latin America? I think the State Department needs to look into this. That E is so enticing. Does it stand for Eliezer? Elpido? Elrond? Elthazaar? I want to know, dammit.
Little Izturis has a home run this year, by the way. Good for him. Come on, Juan Pierre! If this squib can hit one, so can you.
Robb William Quinlan
age: 30
bats: right
0.244 -- 0.261 -- 0.400
He's like, the back up DH in case the regular DH sucks. The regular DH has an OPS of 0.510, and he's only had 45 at bats. Hey, wait a minute!
Kelvim Jose Escobar
age: 31
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.35 -- 43 -- 32 -- 12 -- 2
I had no idea: he's had a sub-4 ERA since 2004 when he came to the Angels. Just a solid pitcher.
He got hammered in his last start, giving up 8 runs to the Mariners. His quote about his performance: "It seemed like everything I threw, they hit." Sounds like a good plan for the Dodgers.
Ervin Ramon Santana
age: 24
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
5.51 -- 47.1 -- 37 -- 19 -- 11
Let me just say again what the line above says: he's given up 11 home runs. Ouch.
His pitching hasn't lived up to the name Santana so far. Heck, it hasn't lived up to the name Ramon. Ervin's home/road splits are by now legendary. This season his home ERA is 2.57; on the road it's 7.86. It's a similarly wide gap for his career stats. His strikeout rate doesn't change when he goes on the road; it's the walk and home run rates that shoot up.
Freaky stat of the moment: Santana pitched 204.0 innings in 2006 and 133.2 in 2005. In those two years, he pitched 204.0 innings at home and 133.2 on the road.
The bad news for the Dodgers is that Santana will be at home for this start. The good news is they will counter home-Santana with first-half-Penny. It's a battle of the Jekyll and Hyde pitchers!
Jered David Weaver
age: 24
throws: right
ERA -- IP -- SO -- BB -- HR
3.62 -- 32.1 -- 30 -- 12 -- 3
He's been great his last four starts. The Dodgers counter him with Hendrickson. Not good times.
He's a fly ball pitcher. If the Dodgers have a hope of getting to him, it might be with some home runs. I'd like to see both Betemit and Saenz play in the game against him; LaRoche and can ride the pine for this one.
Prediction for Series:
Dodgers win 2 of 3 behind wins by Penny in game 1 and the bullpen in game 2. Betemit and Saenz homer in the series.
16 May 2007
Viva Bocachica!
by Joshua Worley
Back on 4 May, in my preview for the Braves series, I made fun on Hiram Kyle Davies's first name, then idly wondered what the status of "old friend" Hiram Bocachica was.
Well, he's now back in the major leagues, with the Athletics of Oakland! He's just been called up to the A's because of injury to Chris Snelling, as reported by 6-4-2.
Hiram Gabriel Bocachica played for the Dodgers from 2000 to 2002 as a utility outfielder and pinch hitter. He didn't do much in 223 plate appearances with the team, with a line of 0.231 -- 0.283 -- 0.394. The only reason I remember him as well as I do is because of his fun-to-say name.
Hiram came to the Dodgers in the trade that also brought them Mark Grudzielanek ( meh ) and Carlos Perez ( yuck! ). More interesting to me, however, if how he left the Dodgers, and the consequences for baseball history. Hiram, along with an obscure minor leaguer named Tom Farmer, was traded to the Detroit Tigers in the middle of 2002 for a player to be named later, who was later named Jason Frasor in September of 2002. Jason kicked around in the minors until he was traded before the 2004 season by brand new Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta to the Blue Jays for a Jayson of a different spelling, Jayson Werth. ( Jason Frasor remains a productive member of the Jays 'pen to this day. ) Werth would go on to be a key contributor to the Dodgers division title drive of 2004, in the process making Dave Roberts expendable. Thus made expendable, Dave Roberts was summarilty expended to the Red Sox, where he would go on to star in the most famous moment of the Red Sox comback against the Yanks, the steal of second with the Sox down by one run in the bottom of the ninth of game four. Unless the most famous moment is the bloody sock, or one of David Ortiz's walk off hits, or Damon's grand slam, or ARod's sissy slap ...
Anyway, at the center of the maelstrom of events that led to the breaking of the Red Sox "curse" was one Hiram Bocachica. He made it all possible, and now he's back with the A's, ready to make more baseball history.
Of course this is all nonsense: so many things went into the Red Sox comeback, the least of which is Hiram. Literally, his role is probably the least of any player who could be connected to it in any way. But it's fun to trace one of the threads connected with that storied comeback, and it's fun to say "Hiram Bocachica, major leaguer" again. Long live Hiram!
Back on 4 May, in my preview for the Braves series, I made fun on Hiram Kyle Davies's first name, then idly wondered what the status of "old friend" Hiram Bocachica was.
Well, he's now back in the major leagues, with the Athletics of Oakland! He's just been called up to the A's because of injury to Chris Snelling, as reported by 6-4-2.
Hiram Gabriel Bocachica played for the Dodgers from 2000 to 2002 as a utility outfielder and pinch hitter. He didn't do much in 223 plate appearances with the team, with a line of 0.231 -- 0.283 -- 0.394. The only reason I remember him as well as I do is because of his fun-to-say name.
Hiram came to the Dodgers in the trade that also brought them Mark Grudzielanek ( meh ) and Carlos Perez ( yuck! ). More interesting to me, however, if how he left the Dodgers, and the consequences for baseball history. Hiram, along with an obscure minor leaguer named Tom Farmer, was traded to the Detroit Tigers in the middle of 2002 for a player to be named later, who was later named Jason Frasor in September of 2002. Jason kicked around in the minors until he was traded before the 2004 season by brand new Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta to the Blue Jays for a Jayson of a different spelling, Jayson Werth. ( Jason Frasor remains a productive member of the Jays 'pen to this day. ) Werth would go on to be a key contributor to the Dodgers division title drive of 2004, in the process making Dave Roberts expendable. Thus made expendable, Dave Roberts was summarilty expended to the Red Sox, where he would go on to star in the most famous moment of the Red Sox comback against the Yanks, the steal of second with the Sox down by one run in the bottom of the ninth of game four. Unless the most famous moment is the bloody sock, or one of David Ortiz's walk off hits, or Damon's grand slam, or ARod's sissy slap ...
Anyway, at the center of the maelstrom of events that led to the breaking of the Red Sox "curse" was one Hiram Bocachica. He made it all possible, and now he's back with the A's, ready to make more baseball history.
Of course this is all nonsense: so many things went into the Red Sox comeback, the least of which is Hiram. Literally, his role is probably the least of any player who could be connected to it in any way. But it's fun to trace one of the threads connected with that storied comeback, and it's fun to say "Hiram Bocachica, major leaguer" again. Long live Hiram!
Dominant 'pen K-pairs
by Joshua Worley
After watching Broxton and Saito blow through the Cardinal lineup last night and save the 9-7 lead, I wondered if they were the most dominant reliever duo in the National League, specifically in terms of striking out batters.
I looked at all NL relievers with at least 10 innings pitched who had struck out at least 25% of batters faced. Five teams had a pair of high strikeout men: they are listed below with percentage of batters struck out, percentage of batters walked or hit by pitch, and ERA.
Dodgers:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
31.9 --- 5.8 --- 1.50 --- Takashi Saito
26.4 --- 8.0 --- 1.23 --- Jonathan Broxton
Saito ranks fourth on the list; he and the three above him are the only NL relievers to have struck out more than 30% of their batters faced.
Brewers:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
39.0 --- 11.9 --- 0.54 --- Francisco Cordero
33.3 --- 11.1 --- 4.24 --- Derrick Turnbow
I had no idea the Brewers had two strikeout demons in the 'pen. These guys are 1 and 3 on the list, and just in terms of raw strikeout rates they are tops, above even the Dodger pair. They do walk more than either Brox or Saito, so I might still give the edge to the Dodgers. Turnbow's high ERA is a result of his meltdown two days ago against the Phillies. Otherwise he's been brilliant. This dominant pair is one component of the Brewers great start.
Mets:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
27.1 --- 12.9 --- 1.56 --- Joe Smith
26.7 --- 6.7 --- 0.56 --- Billy Wagner
I have to admit that I'd never heard of Joe Smith until just now. He's 23, in his first year at the major league level. He's a hard throwing side-armer who had a K rate of almost 9 per 9 innings in his 2006 season split between low A and AA. I guess he's the real thing. Stupid Mets.
Astros:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
28.2 --- 12.9 --- 3.57 --- Brad Lidge
25.0 --- 6.9 --- 4.00 --- Dan Wheeler
Well, well, the demoted Brad Lidge makes up half a dominant pair. The Astros actually have three more pitchers above 20% strikeouts, though none of them walk less than 10% or have a sub-three ERA.
Braves:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
27.4 --- 8.2 --- 4.00 --- Tyler Yates
26.3 --- 12.5 --- 5.29 --- Oscar Villarreal
Rafael Soriano is the Braves bullpen ace, but he just missed making the 25% cut. These two don't have nice ERAs, though of course relief ERAs are often deceiving, especially after only one and half months. Villarreal is getting rather unlucky with his hits allowed, which is why relievers shouldn't mess around with a walk rate above 10%. If you don't give up the free pass you can absorb some bad luck. As for Yates, I don't know. His WHIP is 1.06, so his ERA is really just bad luck.
So that's the all the dominant 'pen K-pairs in the NL. I rank the Dodgers just above the Brewers because of lower walk rates, with the Mets a close third because they can't quite match the K-rates of the Brewers or Dodgers.
But wait, there's one more dominant 'pen K-pair!
B-team Dodgers:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
27.7 --- 11.7 --- 3.80 --- Chad Billingsley
29.7 --- 2.7 --- 1.64 --- Mark Hendrickson
Okay, so one is a starter now, and one should be a starter now. Hendrickson just made the innings pitched cut with a mere 11 relief innings, and his starter stats don't count in this, so he's more of a curiosity than anything. Billingsley really has been impressive in the 'pen after a shaky start. It's time for him to bump Tomko from the rotation. He might not maintain a K-rate above 25% when starting, of course.
And now, for completeness, the rest of the Dodger 'pen is below.
The rest of the Dodgers:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
20.7 --- 8.6 --- 2.81 --- Chin-hui Tsao
11.7 --- 13.0 --- 3.79 --- Joe Beimel
20.2 --- 6.7 --- 3.00 --- Rudy Seanez
One of these men doesn't belong, and I'm not talking about Seanez. Okay, maybe he doesn't belong either. The Dodgers have a pretty good 'pen, though, don't they? All but Beimel strike out at least 20% of the batters they face, and all but Beimel and Billingsley walk less than 10%.
After watching Broxton and Saito blow through the Cardinal lineup last night and save the 9-7 lead, I wondered if they were the most dominant reliever duo in the National League, specifically in terms of striking out batters.
I looked at all NL relievers with at least 10 innings pitched who had struck out at least 25% of batters faced. Five teams had a pair of high strikeout men: they are listed below with percentage of batters struck out, percentage of batters walked or hit by pitch, and ERA.
Dodgers:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
31.9 --- 5.8 --- 1.50 --- Takashi Saito
26.4 --- 8.0 --- 1.23 --- Jonathan Broxton
Saito ranks fourth on the list; he and the three above him are the only NL relievers to have struck out more than 30% of their batters faced.
Brewers:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
39.0 --- 11.9 --- 0.54 --- Francisco Cordero
33.3 --- 11.1 --- 4.24 --- Derrick Turnbow
I had no idea the Brewers had two strikeout demons in the 'pen. These guys are 1 and 3 on the list, and just in terms of raw strikeout rates they are tops, above even the Dodger pair. They do walk more than either Brox or Saito, so I might still give the edge to the Dodgers. Turnbow's high ERA is a result of his meltdown two days ago against the Phillies. Otherwise he's been brilliant. This dominant pair is one component of the Brewers great start.
Mets:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
27.1 --- 12.9 --- 1.56 --- Joe Smith
26.7 --- 6.7 --- 0.56 --- Billy Wagner
I have to admit that I'd never heard of Joe Smith until just now. He's 23, in his first year at the major league level. He's a hard throwing side-armer who had a K rate of almost 9 per 9 innings in his 2006 season split between low A and AA. I guess he's the real thing. Stupid Mets.
Astros:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
28.2 --- 12.9 --- 3.57 --- Brad Lidge
25.0 --- 6.9 --- 4.00 --- Dan Wheeler
Well, well, the demoted Brad Lidge makes up half a dominant pair. The Astros actually have three more pitchers above 20% strikeouts, though none of them walk less than 10% or have a sub-three ERA.
Braves:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
27.4 --- 8.2 --- 4.00 --- Tyler Yates
26.3 --- 12.5 --- 5.29 --- Oscar Villarreal
Rafael Soriano is the Braves bullpen ace, but he just missed making the 25% cut. These two don't have nice ERAs, though of course relief ERAs are often deceiving, especially after only one and half months. Villarreal is getting rather unlucky with his hits allowed, which is why relievers shouldn't mess around with a walk rate above 10%. If you don't give up the free pass you can absorb some bad luck. As for Yates, I don't know. His WHIP is 1.06, so his ERA is really just bad luck.
So that's the all the dominant 'pen K-pairs in the NL. I rank the Dodgers just above the Brewers because of lower walk rates, with the Mets a close third because they can't quite match the K-rates of the Brewers or Dodgers.
But wait, there's one more dominant 'pen K-pair!
B-team Dodgers:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
27.7 --- 11.7 --- 3.80 --- Chad Billingsley
29.7 --- 2.7 --- 1.64 --- Mark Hendrickson
Okay, so one is a starter now, and one should be a starter now. Hendrickson just made the innings pitched cut with a mere 11 relief innings, and his starter stats don't count in this, so he's more of a curiosity than anything. Billingsley really has been impressive in the 'pen after a shaky start. It's time for him to bump Tomko from the rotation. He might not maintain a K-rate above 25% when starting, of course.
And now, for completeness, the rest of the Dodger 'pen is below.
The rest of the Dodgers:
SO% --- BB% --- ERA
20.7 --- 8.6 --- 2.81 --- Chin-hui Tsao
11.7 --- 13.0 --- 3.79 --- Joe Beimel
20.2 --- 6.7 --- 3.00 --- Rudy Seanez
One of these men doesn't belong, and I'm not talking about Seanez. Okay, maybe he doesn't belong either. The Dodgers have a pretty good 'pen, though, don't they? All but Beimel strike out at least 20% of the batters they face, and all but Beimel and Billingsley walk less than 10%.
15 May 2007
Good and Bad
Good: not carrying two light hitting utility infielders on your roster.
Bad: carrying 12 pitchers on your roster.
I'm not a believer in the 12 man pitching staff. But I understand why they've gone to 12 pitchers; the bullpen has been stretched a bit lately. I and just about every other Dodger blogger out there never understood the need to carry Valdez on the roster after Furcal came back.
Bad: carrying 12 pitchers on your roster.
I'm not a believer in the 12 man pitching staff. But I understand why they've gone to 12 pitchers; the bullpen has been stretched a bit lately. I and just about every other Dodger blogger out there never understood the need to carry Valdez on the roster after Furcal came back.
Observer's Notes: 14 May 2007
by Joshua Worley
For Monday's game we had great seats, free seats, obtained through a fortuitous connection at work, down at field level a little bit beyond third base. It's a pity the game turned out to be so dismal for the first two hours.
We also had a preferred parking pass. It was nice not having to pay $15, and also very nice not being told by the parking martinets exactly what spot to park in. I guess wealth has its privileges; I'm even more annoyed that they make the lowly unwashed single-game ticket holders jump through their hoops now that I've seen how they treat the rich folk. It's as if the McCourts resent Dodger fans who buy single game tickets instead of season packages: our parking situation sucks, our concession lines are longer; overall we're treated like unwanted pests.
Then again, there are times when everyone in the stadium is treated like trash. I've had enough of the persistent in-stadium ads and promotion for the direct-to-landfill movie "The Sandlot: Heading Home". None of the fans care, or want to see this movie. It looks awful. It appears the plot is that some bitter, bearded ballplayer gets beaned in the head and is magically transported back to his childhood days where he will learn teamwork and friendship and hitting the cutoff man and proper shaving techniques so he will no longer be bearded and bitter.
I do, however, look forward to the next in the series: "The Sandlot: Tom Emanski's Revenge".
Tara Lipinski the figure-skater threw out the first pitch. She pranced around in front of the mound then threw a pitch that bounced right on top of the plate. This would end up being a good imitation of how Tomko would pitch.
Tomko was wild. And yet he didn't walk anyone, which just made things worse, because he was consistently behind in the count, and instead of throwing a borderline pitch that might produce a walk or an out, he would give in to the hitter and then allow a single or worse. I don't like to be too critical of players but it was a disgusting performance. I even wanted to say "cowardly" but that would be unfair and unsupported.
Why would I want to say that? Because of what of what Tomko did to the game. It's awful to see the game half-lost in the first inning, then completely lost by the second, and then when all is lost see even more bad pitching in the third. If this had been a TV game I would have just turned it off, been able to walk away from the ineptitude. I probably would have checked back in with the game later, but I would have been able to limit the damage by walking away. At the ballpark I can't do that; moreover I shouldn't want to do that.
There were positives to the game. We got to see two Dodger home runs, a rather shocking event. It was really cool to see from our low vantage near third base all the doubles and hard fouls down the left field line. Pierre made some nice catches, though he did have his characteristic hesitation-weave-path to the ball on one of them. The Dodger bullpen was excellent, as usual, and kept alive the tiny bit of hope we did get at the end. I felt privileged to get to see Billingsley strike out the side in his first inning of work. He's the one who should be starting instead of Tomko, Grady. Surely he could see that after today, though I suspect not.
It was great fun to even have the slimmest chance of a comeback when Ramon Martinez came up as the tying run with two outs in the ninth. I've written before about how much I love this scenario. It was great to see the small hope build with the hits by Betemit and Ethier to start the inning. Then there was a fascinating play on the ball Valdez hit. His soft liner up the middle seemed so promising as it came off the bat, but in truth it was a repeat of Pierre's hit up the middle on Sunday with the infield up, only now the infield wasn't up! The soft liner became scary and uncertain mid-flight once we realized it would be fielded, because it wasn't clear if it would be caught in the air or not, and what were the runners to do? But it was caught just off the ground, and the runners were back to their bases in time. And then Furcal hit another soft liner that might have been fielded, but this one went off a glove on the left side of the infield ( I can't remember which ) and fell in safely behind them for a hit. Now that was a great moment, when certain doom was thwarted, and the scrub pitcher was chased besides, in favor of the Cardinal closer. They were panicking! Then Clark broke our hearts by fouling out with a 2-0 count. The fool! We could have had Saenz up as the tying run if he could have gotten on safely. Now we needed Saenz to get on just to prolong the hope. And he did, by not wasting his own 2-0 count and working the walk. What an exciting moment. Finally, after 8 and a half innings and two outs, the Dodgers were finally back in the game, even if barely. Even with a weak hitter such as Martinez, there is a surge of adrenaline in knowing that he could, in theory, swing the bat in such a way that he would hit a home run and complete an astonishing comeback from down 8-0.
Martinez hit a grounder that seemed hard, that I hoped was a hit. But we couldn't easily tell where it was headed from our vantage, so it was only when the shortstop scooped it up that I knew it was over. I'm not sure if the Dodgers ever really had a chance in this game, but for a moment it felt like they did, and that's better than the last awful Monday night game we saw.
For Monday's game we had great seats, free seats, obtained through a fortuitous connection at work, down at field level a little bit beyond third base. It's a pity the game turned out to be so dismal for the first two hours.
We also had a preferred parking pass. It was nice not having to pay $15, and also very nice not being told by the parking martinets exactly what spot to park in. I guess wealth has its privileges; I'm even more annoyed that they make the lowly unwashed single-game ticket holders jump through their hoops now that I've seen how they treat the rich folk. It's as if the McCourts resent Dodger fans who buy single game tickets instead of season packages: our parking situation sucks, our concession lines are longer; overall we're treated like unwanted pests.
Then again, there are times when everyone in the stadium is treated like trash. I've had enough of the persistent in-stadium ads and promotion for the direct-to-landfill movie "The Sandlot: Heading Home". None of the fans care, or want to see this movie. It looks awful. It appears the plot is that some bitter, bearded ballplayer gets beaned in the head and is magically transported back to his childhood days where he will learn teamwork and friendship and hitting the cutoff man and proper shaving techniques so he will no longer be bearded and bitter.
I do, however, look forward to the next in the series: "The Sandlot: Tom Emanski's Revenge".
Tara Lipinski the figure-skater threw out the first pitch. She pranced around in front of the mound then threw a pitch that bounced right on top of the plate. This would end up being a good imitation of how Tomko would pitch.
Tomko was wild. And yet he didn't walk anyone, which just made things worse, because he was consistently behind in the count, and instead of throwing a borderline pitch that might produce a walk or an out, he would give in to the hitter and then allow a single or worse. I don't like to be too critical of players but it was a disgusting performance. I even wanted to say "cowardly" but that would be unfair and unsupported.
Why would I want to say that? Because of what of what Tomko did to the game. It's awful to see the game half-lost in the first inning, then completely lost by the second, and then when all is lost see even more bad pitching in the third. If this had been a TV game I would have just turned it off, been able to walk away from the ineptitude. I probably would have checked back in with the game later, but I would have been able to limit the damage by walking away. At the ballpark I can't do that; moreover I shouldn't want to do that.
There were positives to the game. We got to see two Dodger home runs, a rather shocking event. It was really cool to see from our low vantage near third base all the doubles and hard fouls down the left field line. Pierre made some nice catches, though he did have his characteristic hesitation-weave-path to the ball on one of them. The Dodger bullpen was excellent, as usual, and kept alive the tiny bit of hope we did get at the end. I felt privileged to get to see Billingsley strike out the side in his first inning of work. He's the one who should be starting instead of Tomko, Grady. Surely he could see that after today, though I suspect not.
It was great fun to even have the slimmest chance of a comeback when Ramon Martinez came up as the tying run with two outs in the ninth. I've written before about how much I love this scenario. It was great to see the small hope build with the hits by Betemit and Ethier to start the inning. Then there was a fascinating play on the ball Valdez hit. His soft liner up the middle seemed so promising as it came off the bat, but in truth it was a repeat of Pierre's hit up the middle on Sunday with the infield up, only now the infield wasn't up! The soft liner became scary and uncertain mid-flight once we realized it would be fielded, because it wasn't clear if it would be caught in the air or not, and what were the runners to do? But it was caught just off the ground, and the runners were back to their bases in time. And then Furcal hit another soft liner that might have been fielded, but this one went off a glove on the left side of the infield ( I can't remember which ) and fell in safely behind them for a hit. Now that was a great moment, when certain doom was thwarted, and the scrub pitcher was chased besides, in favor of the Cardinal closer. They were panicking! Then Clark broke our hearts by fouling out with a 2-0 count. The fool! We could have had Saenz up as the tying run if he could have gotten on safely. Now we needed Saenz to get on just to prolong the hope. And he did, by not wasting his own 2-0 count and working the walk. What an exciting moment. Finally, after 8 and a half innings and two outs, the Dodgers were finally back in the game, even if barely. Even with a weak hitter such as Martinez, there is a surge of adrenaline in knowing that he could, in theory, swing the bat in such a way that he would hit a home run and complete an astonishing comeback from down 8-0.
Martinez hit a grounder that seemed hard, that I hoped was a hit. But we couldn't easily tell where it was headed from our vantage, so it was only when the shortstop scooped it up that I knew it was over. I'm not sure if the Dodgers ever really had a chance in this game, but for a moment it felt like they did, and that's better than the last awful Monday night game we saw.
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