Today, a rundown of some quotes from recent dodgers.com news stories.
Kuroda Cutter
"I heard in the States a fastball with movement away is better to have over here," said Kuroda. "I don't think I've perfected the location, but I was satisfied with the movement."
In Japan, Kuroda relied on a sinker thrown down and in to right-handed hitters, but many pitchers feel that Major League umpires are more likely to call strikes on pitches away than inside, one of the reasons for the recent popularity in the cut fastball.
I can't read this without thinking of the worst strike zone offender ever, the late Eric Gregg. He was at the height of his powers in the 1997 NLCS, when his ample strike zone helped Livan Hernandez strike out 15 to beat the Braves. I'll never forget that final "strike" to Fred McGriff, a pitch about a foot off the plate. One of the best things Bud Selig ever did was to not rehire Gregg after he resigned along with 21 other umpires in a negotiating ploy.
Strike zone discipline from umpires has become a lot better since then, but my observation is that we still see a lot more outside strikes than inside strikes called. The simplest explanation for this is that umpires set up over the inside shoulder of the catcher, meaning they can see the inside pitches a lot better.
However, the actual data paints a slightly different picture than what I think I'm seeing. This study done by John Walsh of hardballtimes.com last year shows a significant bias toward outside strikes to lefty batters, but no bias at all between inside and outside to righty batters. If this study is correct, then Kuroda's reasoning for learning the cutter is faulty, since the pitch he's trying to master is designed to cut outside for right-handed batters.
Russell Wear-down
Martin concedes he wore down in the second half, when he hit .275 after hitting .306 before the All-Star break.
Russell Martin's month-by-month OPS last year:
Apr: 0.863
May: 0.843
Jun: 0.807
Jul: 0.858
Aug: 0.943
Sep: 0.725
His best month was August, but his worst was September. If he wore down, it didn't show up in his hitting until September.
Another interesting Martin split from last year is that he was 16 of 19 in stolen bases before the all-star break, but only 5 of 11 after. I guess when you wear down, the legs are the first to go.
Lowe Averages
... Lowe is upbeat about the team's chances: "If everyone just has an average year, we've got a really good team," he said. "We have a lot of talent. We don't need a lot of career years to get over the hump."
I found this to be a deceptively provocative statement. Is this true, I wonder? Do the Dodgers make the playoffs if they have average years from everyone? But do we even know what an average year is supposed to be for most Dodgers? What's an average year for young players without even a full year of major league experience, such as Kemp and Loney? What's average from 40-year old Kent? Kuroda, who is coming to a whole new league? Schmidt, coming off of injury? A lot of average baselines have yet to be established or reset.
On reflection I've decided that the important thing is not that the Dodgers get average years from everyone, but that they get full healthy years from nearly everyone.
Lasorda's Lawn
The croquet field at Disney's Vero Beach Resort was renamed Lasorda Fielda in a Monday ceremony attended by the Hall of Fame manager, who will take over the Florida squad when Torre goes to China with the rest of the team next month.
I once got so mad playing croquet that slammed a mallet to the ground and broke it in half. I'd like to think Lasorda has done the same at least once in his life.
20 February 2008
19 February 2008
Juan Pierre Juan Pierre Juan Pierre
It just never lets up. A ceaseless beat of Pierre. It is a nightmare where I struggle to wake up. I can hear the my alarm clock shrieking, "PIERREPIERREPIERRE". Must make it stop. Finally I break through and wake up and stop the alarm, but it's still blaring. I unplug the clock, but it's still going. I throw it out the window, and still I can hear it, all around me. "PIERREPIERREPIERRE" Because I haven't really woke up. I was tricked by the nightmare into thinking I was awake, but the telltale shriek of the alarm has exposed the lie. Juan Pierre is a nightmare I never wake up from.
There is nothing surprising about this story from dodgers.com, except for how angry it makes me. The story is utterly predictable, and almost entirely without real content, and could probably be written about nearly any other player who was in some danger of losing some starting time, and yet I'm still angry about how clueless Juan Pierre is about how much he sucks. "Some people value what I do and some people don't," he says. The people who value what you do, Juan Pierre, are the same fools who list your team-leading 668 at-bats last year as some sort of accomplishment.
It's bad enough that Joe Torre may award Juan Pierre a starting job based on his veteranhood or becuase he's impressed by his raw totals of hits and stolen bases, but it's even worse if Juan Pierre makes threats to cause trouble if he isn't starting. I wish Andre Ethier would demand to either start or be traded. But Ethier could be traded, since he is younger, cheaper, and better than Pierre. I can't imagine the Dodgers being able to trade Pierre, unless they ate about 80% of his contract and took back essentially nothing.
I look forward to a regular season Dodger game that does not involve Juan Pierre in any way at all. A game in which he doesn't start, never enters as a defensive replacement, pinch hitter, or pinch runner, is never shown sitting in the dugout, and is never even referred to, neither him nor his blighted streak. One could argue that Juan Pierre as much as anyone else was the face of the Dodgers last season. He was always around; we never got a break from him. And you know what? He wasn't even as entertaining to watch as I had been hoping he would be. He may not have been as awful in the outfield as he looked at times, especially early in the year, but he was never fun to watch out there. Now Andruw Jones! There's a player who's fun to watch in the field. It was only fun watching Pierre bat if you enjoy watching a blindfolded little kid try to break open a pinata with a whiffle bat. And watching Pierre steal bases was never as fun as it should have been because I was always worried he'd be caught stealing and add yet more to his prodigious total of outs created. Let's not even mention his outfield throws. Last year, both analytically and aesthetically, Pierre was pain.
And now, I realize, I'm inflicting him on myself. I didn't have to write up a post, only my second this year, all about Juan Pierre. I didn't have to read that stupid spring training article about how he wants to start. Every player wants to start; it's hardly surprising, or news. Start me or trade me; yeah, there's a new line. I shouldn't fault Pierre for saying what almost any other player would say. I shouldn't even fault him for not realizing that he sucks. Lousy ballplayers very often think they are better than they really are.
But I'm a fan, and the thing about fans is they want to see the best players. So don't hold it against me that I rail against Pierre. That's why the drumbeat against Pierre goes on. That's why seeing him in the field feels like a nightmare. Andre Ethier is better than Juan Pierre in nearly every way. Ethier is better in the field, better at throwing, better at taking a walk, better at hitting home runs, better hitter period. Juan Pierre is faster than Ethier. Oh yes, and also older and paid more. That's all it takes, I fear, for the nightmare to continue. Do I need to bring Matt Kemp into this, by the way? It's still not out of the question that Pierre could steal playing time from Kemp, is it? Kemp is in danger at the first sign of a slump, I fear. That's the great advantage Pierre has --- it's hard to be seen as slumping when people list your number of at-bats and other raw batting totals as positive accomplishments. What are we, second graders? Is it so hard to divide?
Still, not everything is grim on the Pierre front. As I wrote a few months ago when Andruw Jones was signed, Juan Pierre has lost his cover. He's not benched yet, and he's not likely to just outright lose his starting job, but the possibility is out there. Even with a veteran-favoring manager, Pierre now has to truly fight for his job, and Pierre knows it, and he's getting his back up about it. Maybe, finally, the nightmare will end.
There is nothing surprising about this story from dodgers.com, except for how angry it makes me. The story is utterly predictable, and almost entirely without real content, and could probably be written about nearly any other player who was in some danger of losing some starting time, and yet I'm still angry about how clueless Juan Pierre is about how much he sucks. "Some people value what I do and some people don't," he says. The people who value what you do, Juan Pierre, are the same fools who list your team-leading 668 at-bats last year as some sort of accomplishment.
It's bad enough that Joe Torre may award Juan Pierre a starting job based on his veteranhood or becuase he's impressed by his raw totals of hits and stolen bases, but it's even worse if Juan Pierre makes threats to cause trouble if he isn't starting. I wish Andre Ethier would demand to either start or be traded. But Ethier could be traded, since he is younger, cheaper, and better than Pierre. I can't imagine the Dodgers being able to trade Pierre, unless they ate about 80% of his contract and took back essentially nothing.
I look forward to a regular season Dodger game that does not involve Juan Pierre in any way at all. A game in which he doesn't start, never enters as a defensive replacement, pinch hitter, or pinch runner, is never shown sitting in the dugout, and is never even referred to, neither him nor his blighted streak. One could argue that Juan Pierre as much as anyone else was the face of the Dodgers last season. He was always around; we never got a break from him. And you know what? He wasn't even as entertaining to watch as I had been hoping he would be. He may not have been as awful in the outfield as he looked at times, especially early in the year, but he was never fun to watch out there. Now Andruw Jones! There's a player who's fun to watch in the field. It was only fun watching Pierre bat if you enjoy watching a blindfolded little kid try to break open a pinata with a whiffle bat. And watching Pierre steal bases was never as fun as it should have been because I was always worried he'd be caught stealing and add yet more to his prodigious total of outs created. Let's not even mention his outfield throws. Last year, both analytically and aesthetically, Pierre was pain.
And now, I realize, I'm inflicting him on myself. I didn't have to write up a post, only my second this year, all about Juan Pierre. I didn't have to read that stupid spring training article about how he wants to start. Every player wants to start; it's hardly surprising, or news. Start me or trade me; yeah, there's a new line. I shouldn't fault Pierre for saying what almost any other player would say. I shouldn't even fault him for not realizing that he sucks. Lousy ballplayers very often think they are better than they really are.
But I'm a fan, and the thing about fans is they want to see the best players. So don't hold it against me that I rail against Pierre. That's why the drumbeat against Pierre goes on. That's why seeing him in the field feels like a nightmare. Andre Ethier is better than Juan Pierre in nearly every way. Ethier is better in the field, better at throwing, better at taking a walk, better at hitting home runs, better hitter period. Juan Pierre is faster than Ethier. Oh yes, and also older and paid more. That's all it takes, I fear, for the nightmare to continue. Do I need to bring Matt Kemp into this, by the way? It's still not out of the question that Pierre could steal playing time from Kemp, is it? Kemp is in danger at the first sign of a slump, I fear. That's the great advantage Pierre has --- it's hard to be seen as slumping when people list your number of at-bats and other raw batting totals as positive accomplishments. What are we, second graders? Is it so hard to divide?
Still, not everything is grim on the Pierre front. As I wrote a few months ago when Andruw Jones was signed, Juan Pierre has lost his cover. He's not benched yet, and he's not likely to just outright lose his starting job, but the possibility is out there. Even with a veteran-favoring manager, Pierre now has to truly fight for his job, and Pierre knows it, and he's getting his back up about it. Maybe, finally, the nightmare will end.
14 February 2008
Pitchers and Catchers and Bloggers Report
People get all excited about pitchers and catcher reporting, but what does it really mean? There are no games, no real news. We don't get to hear Vin Scully on the radio yet. It just means some puff pieces about how good Jason Schmidt's arm feels will start coming out. The Tomkos and Hendricksons of the world will claim to have turned things around with a new approach. Spring Training is actually quite a maddening time. Even when the games start, they don't count, and no one really plays to win. Not really.
Pitchers and Catchers reporting means that baseball is coming, I guess. It's not here, not yet. But it's close. For the first time in months I'm excited about baseball again. I found this offseason really brutal. I didn't trust Colletti; I was sure that Kemp or LaRoche or Kershaw would be traded for a bodybag full of expired reputation at any moment. And so at the end of it, I was exhausted and unable to write anything for months. It's my own damn fault --- I should have ignored all the rumors. But that's over now. Baseball is fun again. Martin and Saito are reporting TODAY! That is exciting, if one looks at it correctly. They're getting ready to thrill, laying down the careful preparations to excel in a month and a half. There are not games today --- except in our imaginations. Feel free to snicker at that. I did as I wrote it --- but it's also a little bit true, at least for me.
Spring Training is the time for stories about how players are going to turn things around, or make a new beginning, or enjoy their new team, or carry on their past excellence. Spring Training articles are a lot like a Barack Obama speech: heavy on the hope and change. Not too much like an Obama speech, though. I don't want to hear about Dodgers needing to reach across the field to work with Giants.
Spring Training is a time for fluff. So why fight it, I say? I will combine two of the great examples of fluff, predictions and top ten rankings, into the first annual Dodgerama Spring Training Spectacular Top Ten Rankings Featuring the Players and Coaches Most Likely To Be Featured in Spring Training Fluff.
1. Joe Torre
Hey Joe, what do you think of the Yankees?
Hey Joe, do you think you can finally finish the job and blow out Proctor's arm this year?
Hey Joe, what about the Yankees?
Hey Joe, what is is like to face your old team in Spring Training?
Hey Joe, are you going to show those young players their place?
2. Juan Pierre
I just think the wronged lunch-pail-everyday-hard-worker angle will be too hard to pass up. We know Pierre is cranky about how things went this offseason, and that should be good for a few tense quotes about how he's just trying to do his job everyday regardless of what the team has in store for him. Writers will talk about all the hits and stolen bases and runs he piled up. They'll ask him if he gets along with Andruw Jones. Pierre was the Dodger lightning rod last year, and given that this year he's lost centerfield, lost his stranglehold on playing every day, but not lost his crazy huge contract, he'll continue to be a lightning rod.
3. Andruw Jones
New players and players who need to bounce back are common features for ST stories. When you have a player who fill both roles, you have someone who's going to be in heavy Gurnick-rotation over at Dodgers.com.
4. Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar, you sucked last year. Can you make a comeback this year and keep young punk Andrew LaRoche away from your job? Nomar still has huge name recognition, which makes him an attractive target for spring fluff. And I'm sure there will be some references to Mia and the twins in these pieces, further upping the fluff factor. If Mia had given birth to triplets this winter Nomar would have come in at number 1 for sure.
5. Jason Schmidt
Breathless stories about how he's now throwing 10 miles per hour await. "Schmidt pitches T-ball practice" headlines will declare. Torre will say he looks good, "as good as Mike Mussina".
6. Matt Kemp
These stories can go either way. They might be about the newly humbled youngster who just wants to learn and contribute any way he can. "I'll sweep up Jeff Kent's sunflower seeds." Or they might be about the unrepentant brash youngster who vows to do it his way and take the league by storm. "I'll hit home runs so far they break Jeff Kent's motorcycle in the parking lot." Both angles are spring training gold.
7. Hiroki Kuroda
New guy. Big expectations. Cultural awkwardness. Any story about Kuroda will heavily feature: his translator, Takashi Saito, a humorous incident involving trying to communicate with Russell Martin, and either his love or disgust for American food.
8. Russell Martin
How good can he become? What about the contract negotiations? Who is he dating now? How will he deal with no longer catching Hendrickson?
9. Jeff Kent
Jeff Kent is kind of like John McCain. He's a weird older guy with a reputation for "straight talk". Kent's remarks about steroids this off-season will only help his profile in ST stories.
10. Tommy Lasorda
You know he's going to mug his way into a few Spring Training stories. It's inevitable, especially with the final season at Vero Beach. In a way, Tommy Lasorda is perfect for Spring Training. All fluff and little substance. Ugh, what a depressing way to end the Spring Training top 10.
Pitchers and Catchers reporting means that baseball is coming, I guess. It's not here, not yet. But it's close. For the first time in months I'm excited about baseball again. I found this offseason really brutal. I didn't trust Colletti; I was sure that Kemp or LaRoche or Kershaw would be traded for a bodybag full of expired reputation at any moment. And so at the end of it, I was exhausted and unable to write anything for months. It's my own damn fault --- I should have ignored all the rumors. But that's over now. Baseball is fun again. Martin and Saito are reporting TODAY! That is exciting, if one looks at it correctly. They're getting ready to thrill, laying down the careful preparations to excel in a month and a half. There are not games today --- except in our imaginations. Feel free to snicker at that. I did as I wrote it --- but it's also a little bit true, at least for me.
Spring Training is the time for stories about how players are going to turn things around, or make a new beginning, or enjoy their new team, or carry on their past excellence. Spring Training articles are a lot like a Barack Obama speech: heavy on the hope and change. Not too much like an Obama speech, though. I don't want to hear about Dodgers needing to reach across the field to work with Giants.
Spring Training is a time for fluff. So why fight it, I say? I will combine two of the great examples of fluff, predictions and top ten rankings, into the first annual Dodgerama Spring Training Spectacular Top Ten Rankings Featuring the Players and Coaches Most Likely To Be Featured in Spring Training Fluff.
1. Joe Torre
Hey Joe, what do you think of the Yankees?
Hey Joe, do you think you can finally finish the job and blow out Proctor's arm this year?
Hey Joe, what about the Yankees?
Hey Joe, what is is like to face your old team in Spring Training?
Hey Joe, are you going to show those young players their place?
2. Juan Pierre
I just think the wronged lunch-pail-everyday-hard-worker angle will be too hard to pass up. We know Pierre is cranky about how things went this offseason, and that should be good for a few tense quotes about how he's just trying to do his job everyday regardless of what the team has in store for him. Writers will talk about all the hits and stolen bases and runs he piled up. They'll ask him if he gets along with Andruw Jones. Pierre was the Dodger lightning rod last year, and given that this year he's lost centerfield, lost his stranglehold on playing every day, but not lost his crazy huge contract, he'll continue to be a lightning rod.
3. Andruw Jones
New players and players who need to bounce back are common features for ST stories. When you have a player who fill both roles, you have someone who's going to be in heavy Gurnick-rotation over at Dodgers.com.
4. Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar, you sucked last year. Can you make a comeback this year and keep young punk Andrew LaRoche away from your job? Nomar still has huge name recognition, which makes him an attractive target for spring fluff. And I'm sure there will be some references to Mia and the twins in these pieces, further upping the fluff factor. If Mia had given birth to triplets this winter Nomar would have come in at number 1 for sure.
5. Jason Schmidt
Breathless stories about how he's now throwing 10 miles per hour await. "Schmidt pitches T-ball practice" headlines will declare. Torre will say he looks good, "as good as Mike Mussina".
6. Matt Kemp
These stories can go either way. They might be about the newly humbled youngster who just wants to learn and contribute any way he can. "I'll sweep up Jeff Kent's sunflower seeds." Or they might be about the unrepentant brash youngster who vows to do it his way and take the league by storm. "I'll hit home runs so far they break Jeff Kent's motorcycle in the parking lot." Both angles are spring training gold.
7. Hiroki Kuroda
New guy. Big expectations. Cultural awkwardness. Any story about Kuroda will heavily feature: his translator, Takashi Saito, a humorous incident involving trying to communicate with Russell Martin, and either his love or disgust for American food.
8. Russell Martin
How good can he become? What about the contract negotiations? Who is he dating now? How will he deal with no longer catching Hendrickson?
9. Jeff Kent
Jeff Kent is kind of like John McCain. He's a weird older guy with a reputation for "straight talk". Kent's remarks about steroids this off-season will only help his profile in ST stories.
10. Tommy Lasorda
You know he's going to mug his way into a few Spring Training stories. It's inevitable, especially with the final season at Vero Beach. In a way, Tommy Lasorda is perfect for Spring Training. All fluff and little substance. Ugh, what a depressing way to end the Spring Training top 10.
15 December 2007
A Chilling Comparison
Newly Signed Dodger Hiroki Kuroda
2007 Central League ERA ranking: 9
ERA: 3.56
Innings: 179.7
Strikeouts: 123
Walks: 42
Homeruns: 20
Mystery Japanese Pitcher
2007 Central League ERA ranking: 12
ERA: 4.19
Innings: 166.7
Strikeouts: 163
Walks: 49
Homeruns: 21
When I first heard Kuroda’s ERA, I thought it sounded a little high for a Japanese League. Then I looked at the stats and saw that he was ninth in his league in ERA last year, which sounds pretty good. But then I realized that ninth isn’t all that good when there are only 6 teams in the league.
People are claiming that his home stadium in Hiroshima is a hitter’s park, so that might be an encouraging sign. I haven’t found any numbers to back up this claim yet, though. The short dimensions down the lines are often cited, but there’s more to park factors than short outfield porches. Still, maybe ninth is really pretty good given his home park. He was the best Hiroshima Carp pitcher by ERA last year, for what that might be worth.
So it was while pondering how good Kuroda might really be that I saw something a little further down the ERA leader list that chilled my blood!
The mystery man in 12th place on the ERA list strikes out a lot more batters than Kuroda, though he did have a worse ERA ( obviously ). He also had worse HR and walk rates. Maybe we could say that Kuroda is better than the mystery pitcher, but he’s not heaps better.
If that mystery pitcher was also coming to the major leagues, would we expect Kuroda to be much better than him? Especially given the mystery pitcher’s higher strikeout rate, we might expect them to be pretty close in performance.
Unfortunately, the mystery pitcher has pitched in the major leagues before. His name is Kaz Ishii. You know, the frustrating and by the end mediocre Dodger starter who ended up being traded for famed slow-poke catcher and occasional-first-base-man Jason Phillips? What the Pierre were the Dodgers thinking in signing to a three year deal averaging at least 12 million a year a pitcher perhaps only marginally better than Kaz Ishii?
Okay, time for a self-sedation. Ishii is older by Kuroda --- by two years. Ish --- sedative not working! Okay, how about this --- if Kuroda replicated Ishii’s ERA’s from his three years with the Dodgers, we’d get an ERA of 4.27 in 2008, 3.86 in 2009, and 4.71 in 2010. That’s worth 12 million or more a year, right? Right? Ugh, sedative still not working.
In truth no one knows how Kuroda will do. It's really hard to say how a pitcher coming over from Japan will do. I guess one could argue for paying 12 million for a 4 ERA pitcher, if it keeps a 5 ERA pitcher from making starts. We’ll see if Kuroda can even manage an ERA of 4, though. Ishii’s big weakness were all the walks he gave up, but they didn’t really sink him until year three. Kuroda’s weakness is going to be his low strikeout rate, most likely. We’ll see how long it takes for that to sink him.
I have to say, though, I don't hate this signing. That's because I'm an irrationally optimistic Dodger fan. When they happen I always think the free agent signings will work out, somehow. Except for Juan Pierre's signing, of course. I hated that one from the beginning. Even optimists have their limits.
2007 Central League ERA ranking: 9
ERA: 3.56
Innings: 179.7
Strikeouts: 123
Walks: 42
Homeruns: 20
Mystery Japanese Pitcher
2007 Central League ERA ranking: 12
ERA: 4.19
Innings: 166.7
Strikeouts: 163
Walks: 49
Homeruns: 21
When I first heard Kuroda’s ERA, I thought it sounded a little high for a Japanese League. Then I looked at the stats and saw that he was ninth in his league in ERA last year, which sounds pretty good. But then I realized that ninth isn’t all that good when there are only 6 teams in the league.
People are claiming that his home stadium in Hiroshima is a hitter’s park, so that might be an encouraging sign. I haven’t found any numbers to back up this claim yet, though. The short dimensions down the lines are often cited, but there’s more to park factors than short outfield porches. Still, maybe ninth is really pretty good given his home park. He was the best Hiroshima Carp pitcher by ERA last year, for what that might be worth.
So it was while pondering how good Kuroda might really be that I saw something a little further down the ERA leader list that chilled my blood!
The mystery man in 12th place on the ERA list strikes out a lot more batters than Kuroda, though he did have a worse ERA ( obviously ). He also had worse HR and walk rates. Maybe we could say that Kuroda is better than the mystery pitcher, but he’s not heaps better.
If that mystery pitcher was also coming to the major leagues, would we expect Kuroda to be much better than him? Especially given the mystery pitcher’s higher strikeout rate, we might expect them to be pretty close in performance.
Unfortunately, the mystery pitcher has pitched in the major leagues before. His name is Kaz Ishii. You know, the frustrating and by the end mediocre Dodger starter who ended up being traded for famed slow-poke catcher and occasional-first-base-man Jason Phillips? What the Pierre were the Dodgers thinking in signing to a three year deal averaging at least 12 million a year a pitcher perhaps only marginally better than Kaz Ishii?
Okay, time for a self-sedation. Ishii is older by Kuroda --- by two years. Ish --- sedative not working! Okay, how about this --- if Kuroda replicated Ishii’s ERA’s from his three years with the Dodgers, we’d get an ERA of 4.27 in 2008, 3.86 in 2009, and 4.71 in 2010. That’s worth 12 million or more a year, right? Right? Ugh, sedative still not working.
In truth no one knows how Kuroda will do. It's really hard to say how a pitcher coming over from Japan will do. I guess one could argue for paying 12 million for a 4 ERA pitcher, if it keeps a 5 ERA pitcher from making starts. We’ll see if Kuroda can even manage an ERA of 4, though. Ishii’s big weakness were all the walks he gave up, but they didn’t really sink him until year three. Kuroda’s weakness is going to be his low strikeout rate, most likely. We’ll see how long it takes for that to sink him.
I have to say, though, I don't hate this signing. That's because I'm an irrationally optimistic Dodger fan. When they happen I always think the free agent signings will work out, somehow. Except for Juan Pierre's signing, of course. I hated that one from the beginning. Even optimists have their limits.
06 December 2007
Pierre Loses His Cover
Something happened! The Dodgers did something! Ken Rosenthal and the others ( such as Buster Olney ) who criticized the Dodgers for having a bad offseason by doing nothing get their wish! Another ex-Brave is signed to a lucrative short term contract!
Andruw Jones, the boy from Curacao ( as Vinny likes to call him ) has signed with the Dodgers for 36 million dollars spread out over two years. Sheesh, I feel so out of the loop. I've only just now heard about this signing, even though the news of it apparently broke last night. My source in the Dodger front office didn't come through!
Jones is the center fielder. That's not in question. And Pierre is the presumptive left fielder. But I don't buy it. Pierre is not going to be the regular Dodger left fielder for long. This is next year, and everything has changed.
If the Dodgers keep Ethier and Kemp, then it's a sure thing that Pierre will fall into the fourth outfielder spot. Pierre is no longer the fresh signing who's got to be played. He is no longer the only center fielder available --- in fact he'll likely never play center field for the Dodgers again, outside of a Jones injury or Jones day off. As a newly signed center fielder Pierre had an almost mystical claim on being in the lineup: the Dodgers brought him in to be their speedy center fielder, and come groundout or pop up or pathetic bunt that's where he was going to play. But now, he's a known bust who's competing for a corner outfield spot. His power and on-base deficiencies will suddenly seem more obvious. His outfield speed ( such as it is ) will seem less relevant. Oh sure, he does start the season in a starting role. I don't deny that. But this year Pierre will have to compete for his playing time, and in a legitimate competition he has no chance. Being the center fielder was Pierre's trump card in keeping his starting job, and now he's lost it.
His competitors for a corner outfield spot, Ethier and Kemp, aren't rookies anymore. They have power numbers and batting averages and OPS's to point to at the big league level. They're better, and I think Torre and Colletti know this. I also don't deny that Pierre may get a boost in this competition from being the older player, the proven veteran winner, but that's not going to be enough. The Dodgers may be a little backward when it comes to giving their young players a chance, but when a veteran starter isn't getting it done eventually that starter will be pulled, even if it isn't as fast or as complete as most of us would like. Nomar and Gonzo did lose playing time as the season went on last year.
Now, Colletti may trade either Kemp or Ethier for starting pitching. ( I refuse to believe he'd part with either one for Rolen or some other inferior-to-LaRoche third baseman. ) Then it becomes harder --- Pierre becomes more able to hold on to his corner outfield spot, because where is the competition? But I know that one thing
GM Ned likes is his depth. If he trades one of Kemp or Ethier, he'll go out and get a Terrmel Sledge type guy to be a fourth outfielder. And Delwyn Young should also be lurking in the outfield mix. Though it will take longer, Pierre would also lose playing time to whoever the Dodgers had as their fourth and fifth outfielders at the start of the year. It really doesn't matter who else the Dodgers have. Pierre's days of playing every day are done, for the simple reason that he is now the worst corner outfielder in all of baseball, by such a margin that even Pierre apologists will have to see it. There's nowhere for him to hide now that Jones has taken over center field.
Andruw Jones, the boy from Curacao ( as Vinny likes to call him ) has signed with the Dodgers for 36 million dollars spread out over two years. Sheesh, I feel so out of the loop. I've only just now heard about this signing, even though the news of it apparently broke last night. My source in the Dodger front office didn't come through!
Jones is the center fielder. That's not in question. And Pierre is the presumptive left fielder. But I don't buy it. Pierre is not going to be the regular Dodger left fielder for long. This is next year, and everything has changed.
If the Dodgers keep Ethier and Kemp, then it's a sure thing that Pierre will fall into the fourth outfielder spot. Pierre is no longer the fresh signing who's got to be played. He is no longer the only center fielder available --- in fact he'll likely never play center field for the Dodgers again, outside of a Jones injury or Jones day off. As a newly signed center fielder Pierre had an almost mystical claim on being in the lineup: the Dodgers brought him in to be their speedy center fielder, and come groundout or pop up or pathetic bunt that's where he was going to play. But now, he's a known bust who's competing for a corner outfield spot. His power and on-base deficiencies will suddenly seem more obvious. His outfield speed ( such as it is ) will seem less relevant. Oh sure, he does start the season in a starting role. I don't deny that. But this year Pierre will have to compete for his playing time, and in a legitimate competition he has no chance. Being the center fielder was Pierre's trump card in keeping his starting job, and now he's lost it.
His competitors for a corner outfield spot, Ethier and Kemp, aren't rookies anymore. They have power numbers and batting averages and OPS's to point to at the big league level. They're better, and I think Torre and Colletti know this. I also don't deny that Pierre may get a boost in this competition from being the older player, the proven veteran winner, but that's not going to be enough. The Dodgers may be a little backward when it comes to giving their young players a chance, but when a veteran starter isn't getting it done eventually that starter will be pulled, even if it isn't as fast or as complete as most of us would like. Nomar and Gonzo did lose playing time as the season went on last year.
Now, Colletti may trade either Kemp or Ethier for starting pitching. ( I refuse to believe he'd part with either one for Rolen or some other inferior-to-LaRoche third baseman. ) Then it becomes harder --- Pierre becomes more able to hold on to his corner outfield spot, because where is the competition? But I know that one thing
GM Ned likes is his depth. If he trades one of Kemp or Ethier, he'll go out and get a Terrmel Sledge type guy to be a fourth outfielder. And Delwyn Young should also be lurking in the outfield mix. Though it will take longer, Pierre would also lose playing time to whoever the Dodgers had as their fourth and fifth outfielders at the start of the year. It really doesn't matter who else the Dodgers have. Pierre's days of playing every day are done, for the simple reason that he is now the worst corner outfielder in all of baseball, by such a margin that even Pierre apologists will have to see it. There's nowhere for him to hide now that Jones has taken over center field.
04 December 2007
Tigers Trade 6.2 Million Dollars for Cabrera
So the big news of the day is that the Tigers have traded top prospects Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin along with 4 lesser prospects for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. How fortunate for the Tigers that they had Miller and Maybin around to make the trade, huh?
The Tigers bought their fortune, more or less. Andrew Miller was drafted 6th overall in the 2006 draft. He got a signing bonus of 3.85 million to go with another 3 million plus in guaranteed money. The players drafted directly ahead and behind him got signing bonuses of 2 million ( Brandon Morrow ) and 2.3 million ( Clayton Kershaw ). By paying an extra 1.5 million or so the Tigers were able to lock up a premier talent. Cameron Maybin was drafted 10th overall in 2005, and after a lengthy holdout he signed for slightly above "slot money" with a signing bonus of 2.65 million dollars. In comparison, Wade Townsend, drafted eighth in 2005, got a signing bonus of 1.5 million. ( The ninth pick that year, Pelfry, was also signed above slot value. ) By paying an extra 1 million the Tigers locked up Maybin. By a very simple analysis, this extra 2.5 million spent in 2005 and 2006 has paid off with Miguel Cabrera in 2008.
Now, the Tigers are losing 4 pitching prospects in this deal. That hurts their overall pitching depth, no question. But they still have Rick Porcello, drafted 27th overall last year and given a signing bonus of 3.85 million to sign, well over slot money that far down in the first round. By paying over slot for him, they put themselves in a position to trade away four pitching prospects and still have some depth.
The Tigers may well have been better off if they had drafted Kershaw instead of Miller in 2006, of course. He would have been cheaper and may have even have been more slightly more valued by the Marlins thatn Miller. But you'll come out ahead over the long haul by drafting premium talent that drops because of signability concerns and then paying over slot to get that talent on board. If the Tigers had just taken players at each spot in the draft that they knew they could sign at the MLB approved amount for that slot, they might not have had enough young talent to get Cabrera.
I don't know which team wins this trade. I'm bad at figuring out that sort of thing. But viewed one way the Tigers basically got Cabrera for an outlay of 6.2 million dollars back in 2005 and 2006. It's not as if losing either Maybin or Miller creates any true holes in the 2008 Tigers. ( Maybe losing them creates holes in the 2010 Tigers, though. ) Anyway, about 6 million for Cabrera is a steal for the Tigers, isn't it?
I wish the Dodgers were willing to consistently go over slot in the way the Tigers are. Nothing beats smart drafting, of course. You need to give the bonuses to the right players. But I wonder, who might Kyle Blair have been traded for down the road? What might an investment of 1 million in 2007 have garnered the Dodgers in future years?
The Tigers bought their fortune, more or less. Andrew Miller was drafted 6th overall in the 2006 draft. He got a signing bonus of 3.85 million to go with another 3 million plus in guaranteed money. The players drafted directly ahead and behind him got signing bonuses of 2 million ( Brandon Morrow ) and 2.3 million ( Clayton Kershaw ). By paying an extra 1.5 million or so the Tigers were able to lock up a premier talent. Cameron Maybin was drafted 10th overall in 2005, and after a lengthy holdout he signed for slightly above "slot money" with a signing bonus of 2.65 million dollars. In comparison, Wade Townsend, drafted eighth in 2005, got a signing bonus of 1.5 million. ( The ninth pick that year, Pelfry, was also signed above slot value. ) By paying an extra 1 million the Tigers locked up Maybin. By a very simple analysis, this extra 2.5 million spent in 2005 and 2006 has paid off with Miguel Cabrera in 2008.
Now, the Tigers are losing 4 pitching prospects in this deal. That hurts their overall pitching depth, no question. But they still have Rick Porcello, drafted 27th overall last year and given a signing bonus of 3.85 million to sign, well over slot money that far down in the first round. By paying over slot for him, they put themselves in a position to trade away four pitching prospects and still have some depth.
The Tigers may well have been better off if they had drafted Kershaw instead of Miller in 2006, of course. He would have been cheaper and may have even have been more slightly more valued by the Marlins thatn Miller. But you'll come out ahead over the long haul by drafting premium talent that drops because of signability concerns and then paying over slot to get that talent on board. If the Tigers had just taken players at each spot in the draft that they knew they could sign at the MLB approved amount for that slot, they might not have had enough young talent to get Cabrera.
I don't know which team wins this trade. I'm bad at figuring out that sort of thing. But viewed one way the Tigers basically got Cabrera for an outlay of 6.2 million dollars back in 2005 and 2006. It's not as if losing either Maybin or Miller creates any true holes in the 2008 Tigers. ( Maybe losing them creates holes in the 2010 Tigers, though. ) Anyway, about 6 million for Cabrera is a steal for the Tigers, isn't it?
I wish the Dodgers were willing to consistently go over slot in the way the Tigers are. Nothing beats smart drafting, of course. You need to give the bonuses to the right players. But I wonder, who might Kyle Blair have been traded for down the road? What might an investment of 1 million in 2007 have garnered the Dodgers in future years?
27 November 2007
Nothing Is Happening
Nothing is happening with the Dodgers, unless you count ridiculous rumors, photo opportunities and vaguely reassuring interviews by top officials. The rumors have beaten me down, even though I try not to pay them any attention. I know they're garbage, and yet still the thought that there are people out there who think trading Kershaw, Kemp, LaRoche and Loney for Miguel Cabrera is something the Dodgers would do is very unsettling. These rumors are the product of having lots of good young players and prospects and having an iffy GM who seems to value veteran players too much. It's good and bad, together, creating hysteria.
So, I haven't had anything relevent to say about the team. This is because nothing is happening. And that's good, because nothing should happen with this team. I don't want any substantive issues to write about in this blog. I don't want there to be any trades or signings to talk about, because almost anything the Dodgers could do would be bad, a step backwards.
They broke the ground on the new spring training site in Arizona. I guess that was something happening. They had a picture of Vin Scully with a shovel. That was pretty goofy. I don't care about Spring Training, though. Should Spring Training be capitalized, perhaps as a way of making it seem more important than it really is? I don't care where the Dodgers play their springtime pretend games, though I am mildly unsettled at the thought of them sharing a field with another team. The best part of spring training is that it means the real games are coming up really soon.
The real games are so far off now, though. Maybe Dodgerama should have an offseason, just like the team it kind of covers. It has been several weeks since I posted anything. But blogs aren't supposed to have offseasons.
So, I haven't had anything relevent to say about the team. This is because nothing is happening. And that's good, because nothing should happen with this team. I don't want any substantive issues to write about in this blog. I don't want there to be any trades or signings to talk about, because almost anything the Dodgers could do would be bad, a step backwards.
They broke the ground on the new spring training site in Arizona. I guess that was something happening. They had a picture of Vin Scully with a shovel. That was pretty goofy. I don't care about Spring Training, though. Should Spring Training be capitalized, perhaps as a way of making it seem more important than it really is? I don't care where the Dodgers play their springtime pretend games, though I am mildly unsettled at the thought of them sharing a field with another team. The best part of spring training is that it means the real games are coming up really soon.
The real games are so far off now, though. Maybe Dodgerama should have an offseason, just like the team it kind of covers. It has been several weeks since I posted anything. But blogs aren't supposed to have offseasons.
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