Turns out the circuit was phantom tripped. By the time we figured that out the Dodgers were deep into extra innings, extending their schizophrenic reign of superb relief pitching and inept offense.
It began late in last night's game around the eighth inning, so it was really in the middle of the game, but it felt late at the time. A circuit that carries the load for the refrigerator, mircrowave and a garage box freezer went down. The first indication of the loss of power came when I tried to get ice out of the fridge dispenser and none came. I would say that it was a cosmic resonance with the Dodgers inability to score runs, the inaccessible ice vibrating in sympathy across space-time with the unscored runs, but it was easy enough to open up the freezer and get at the runs, or rather, the ice. The Dodgers had no equivalent strategy to pursue, unless they might have hypnotized Ethier in the ninth inning and found that home run trapped in his psyche and made him to release it earlier. Judging from all the walk-off hits Ethier keeps uncorking, he has a lot of unresolved issues to work through. Or maybe he just enjoys being pummeled and thrown to the ground by his crazed teammates after a win.
It was when I opened the freezer to manually grab my ice that I noticed the whole contraption had simply stopped running. The little light inside the door was dark; the hum of coolness was silent; the Dodger offense was inert and sessile: another cosmic resonance. We moved into this house shortly before the start of spring training this year, so some things are still new to us, and we had a hunt for the circuit breaker box. Sure, the previous owner had shown us where it was, but that was several fuzzy memories ago. Eventually I found it, but not before missing most of the excellent relief pitching of the Dodgers in the ninth and tenth innings. I kept coming back to see the Dodgers bat, to see the game end, I hoped, a mercy win, to release me to more pressing concerns. Just win the game already, I implored. Go Nike on their asses. Just do it. They did not.
None of the circuit switches in the box were tripped. Moreover, though some were labeled clearly, the one we were looking for was not. The circuit breaker box was clearly deceiving us, and I called a balk on it.
If there was such a thing as a batter's balk, Wolf would have received one in the fifth inning. It looked like he was starting some half-hearted aerobics right there in the batter's box. Make a fist at your head and push out toward the air! And do it again! It is rare when I feel sympathy for that arrogant turd Tracy, but I did when his pitcher was faked out of his shoes by Wolf and induced to balk. That Wolf was not trying to induce the balk only makes the deception more effective. And then Wolf showed why he has been used as a pinch hitter so often this year. About time, Wolf. Jimenez would have been better off plunking Wolf in retaliation for his weird timeout dance at the plate and then gotten Pierre to weakly ground out with the bases loaded.
Concerning Tracy, I enjoyed the moment in the bottom of the thirteenth inning when the camera showed him in the dugout and he appeared to have his hand around his neck. Perhaps it was a trick of perspective, or my own late-inning addled perceptions, but it looked for all the world like he was pantomiming a choking action to indicate what we were about to see out of his pitcher. I think it was Tracy's way of preemptively assigning blame for the loss elsewhere.
The Dodger relief pitchers were lined up like circuit breakers for the Rockies to trip, but none of them did. Not even Weaver. I watched Weaver pitch to the first batter of his inning, hoping to see an out before I went back out to attempt solving the mystery of the phantom tripped circuit. Instead he gave up a double, and I thought the game was lost. It must have been something to see him strike out the side after allowing runners to second and third. The entire bullpen was something. The Dodger magic may or may not be gone but the bullpen magic has never left this team. Eventually we found the right switch, flipped it off, then back on, and power was restored to the kitchen appliances. I completed my circuit. Ethier completed his circuit. The Dodgers won.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Ethier -- 1
McDonald -- 1
Wolf -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( Rockies )
Peralta -- 1
Barmes -- 1
Tulowitzki -- 1
29 June 2009
The Magic is Gone
I knew for certain the magic was gone in the third inning on Saturday, when Ethier was confounded in deepest, darkest right field. Russell Branyan had ripped a ball down the right field line, and Ethier waited in the corner by the foul pole for the ball to bounce over to him. He and the corner were like an old married couple, comfortable with each other, no surprises --- you send the ball over to me, corner, and I'll throw the ball in and Branyan will stand on second with his double and that will be that. But the corner made a cuckold of Ethier. It was faithless, and sent the ball off at a strange angle, and Ethier froze, for a moment, shocked. I don't know you, corner, he seemed to say in that horrible, slow-motion moment. When he finally took the ball, and threw it in, Russell Branyan was at third base, with a triple. A triple. Humiliation.
I feel bizarrely confident in saying that every triple Russell Branyan has ever hit was a soul-crushing moment for the fans of the opposing team. He only has 8 of them in his career, you know. That triple he hit Saturday was his first of the season. Branyan is slow. He's not a tripling man. When he hits a triple, it's to send a deeper message.
The magic is gone. That's the message. The Dodger magic has vanished. They have lost two series in a row. They lose pitching matchups they should lose, and then the lose pitching matchups they should win. Their starters are struggling. The offense is straggling. Just watch them and you can see it, feel it. This is not the team we saw in April and May.
The magic is gone. The skeptic must surely challenge this statement. I would challenge this statement if it came from any other source. Evidence is required. And here it is: the Dodgers have been outscored in June. There is no irrational interpretation of a triple in that. It is simply a number. Negative three. Not a good team, not a bad team. A middle team, at least in June. They haven't been outscored by much. Indeed, the Dodger magic lingered long enough into June that they won several come-back games and their record this month is 13-11. You could argue against the end of the magic if you wanted to. But you'd be wrong. It's gone.
The Dodgers are not doomed. You can win without the magic. The Dodgers can make the playoffs without the magic. They have a seven game lead. There is no call to panic. The Dodgers have all the same players they had. And more, coming in. Manny, certainly, and maybe someone in trade, though I do not wish for trade. A trade is too much like panic.
The magic could come back. I do not say it is gone forever. Maybe Manny can bring it back. But I am skeptical. We have aready seen that one man, even one Manny, does not make as much difference as we might have otherwise thought. The Dodgers did not lose the magic when Manny went out. They lost it later. It leaked away, in drips and trickles, until the day when it was clear it was all gone.
I want the magic back. It felt like 1988 again, until it went away. I think it can come back. But when? How? I don't know.
I feel bizarrely confident in saying that every triple Russell Branyan has ever hit was a soul-crushing moment for the fans of the opposing team. He only has 8 of them in his career, you know. That triple he hit Saturday was his first of the season. Branyan is slow. He's not a tripling man. When he hits a triple, it's to send a deeper message.
The magic is gone. That's the message. The Dodger magic has vanished. They have lost two series in a row. They lose pitching matchups they should lose, and then the lose pitching matchups they should win. Their starters are struggling. The offense is straggling. Just watch them and you can see it, feel it. This is not the team we saw in April and May.
The magic is gone. The skeptic must surely challenge this statement. I would challenge this statement if it came from any other source. Evidence is required. And here it is: the Dodgers have been outscored in June. There is no irrational interpretation of a triple in that. It is simply a number. Negative three. Not a good team, not a bad team. A middle team, at least in June. They haven't been outscored by much. Indeed, the Dodger magic lingered long enough into June that they won several come-back games and their record this month is 13-11. You could argue against the end of the magic if you wanted to. But you'd be wrong. It's gone.
The Dodgers are not doomed. You can win without the magic. The Dodgers can make the playoffs without the magic. They have a seven game lead. There is no call to panic. The Dodgers have all the same players they had. And more, coming in. Manny, certainly, and maybe someone in trade, though I do not wish for trade. A trade is too much like panic.
The magic could come back. I do not say it is gone forever. Maybe Manny can bring it back. But I am skeptical. We have aready seen that one man, even one Manny, does not make as much difference as we might have otherwise thought. The Dodgers did not lose the magic when Manny went out. They lost it later. It leaked away, in drips and trickles, until the day when it was clear it was all gone.
I want the magic back. It felt like 1988 again, until it went away. I think it can come back. But when? How? I don't know.
Game 75 and Game 76 Unfair Loss Shares
You could see going in to Saturday's game that the Dodgers were probably going to lose, with Milton going up against King Felix. When the Dodgers indeed went on to lose, at least there was the comfort that Sunday's pitching match up favored the Dodgers. And then that was blown away by the Mariners' three run third inning yesterday, and all that was left was a drab series loss to an American League team. I suppose it is a credit to this year's Dodgers team that they actually managed to break even against the American League.
The losses were routine, and so are the unfair loss shares. The Dodgers lost by formula, no dramatics, no surprises, no heartbreak. Get a bad start by the starter, and have a poor offense that features two hitless and walkless regulars, and the loss and the unfair loss shares just fall off the bone, as if the game was a well cooked rack of ribs. The Dodgers taste best served with barbecue sauce.
Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Game 75
Milton -- 1
Pierre -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Game 76
Hudson -- 1
Blake -- 1
Kuroda -- 1
Unfair Win Shares ( Mariners )
Game 75
Hernandez -- 2
Branyan -- 1
Game 76
Lopez -- 1
Olson -- 1
Batista -- 1
The losses were routine, and so are the unfair loss shares. The Dodgers lost by formula, no dramatics, no surprises, no heartbreak. Get a bad start by the starter, and have a poor offense that features two hitless and walkless regulars, and the loss and the unfair loss shares just fall off the bone, as if the game was a well cooked rack of ribs. The Dodgers taste best served with barbecue sauce.
Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Game 75
Milton -- 1
Pierre -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Game 76
Hudson -- 1
Blake -- 1
Kuroda -- 1
Unfair Win Shares ( Mariners )
Game 75
Hernandez -- 2
Branyan -- 1
Game 76
Lopez -- 1
Olson -- 1
Batista -- 1
26 June 2009
Game Boom 74 Boom Unfair Boom Win Shares
Here is a list of Los Angeles Dodgers who have hit 3 home runs in a game, in order of my estimation of most likely to least likely to have accomplished the feat:
Shawn Green 2001, 2002
Green did it twice. When his swing was right it was gorgeous, and so were the results. When his swing was wrong he kept opposing second basemen very busy. The 2002 occurrence was actually a four HR game, in which he set the major league record with 19 total bases in a nine inning game.
Mike Piazza 1996
Piazza was certainly a better player than Green, but in his prime Green hit more home runs than Piazza, and I figure the guy who did this twice really should be most likely.
Jimmy Wynn 1974
Wynn was very good hitter, though not an especially prodigious home run hitter. He did have 32 HR in 1974.
Andre Ethier 2009
Tonight's hero. Someday it might seem more likely that Ethier did it than Wynn, but for now I have Wynn ahead a little bit.
Hee Sop Choi 2005
Choi is one of three LA Dodgers to have a three home run game in his last major league season. Which is really strange. Choi was known as a home run hitter, but he didn't really hit that many. He was more well known, at least by me, for being behind Jason Philips on the first base depth chart for awhile in late 2005. Jim Tracy didn't really like him. He would have had about 30 home runs in 2005 if he had played every day. Instead he had 15, including 6 against the Twins in one memorable interleague series. Perhaps Ethier can match him.
Davey Lopes 1974
Joined Wynn in the triple homer game club in 1974, but he wasn't nearly the home run hitter Wynn was, having only 10 on the season. He did hit 28 in a season later in his career.
Kevin Elster 2000
It's a miracle Elster isn't last on this list. Not only was 2000 his last major league season, but he didn't even play in 1999. And yet Elster was actually a pretty good hitter in 2000, hitting 14 home runs and posting his only season with an OPS+ above 100, not counting an early season when he played in only 5 games. If this list was ranked on glory of the feat rather than on likelihood of the feat Elster would easily come out ahead, since his three home run game came in the first game ever played at Pac Bell Park. The Giants must have been so surprised to see Kevin bleeping Elster ruining their inauguration of the new digs.
Cory Snyder 1994
It took Cory Snyder to beat out Kevin Elster for most unlikely three homer game. Snyder had only 6 home runs in 1994, and three of them came in a crazy early season 19-2 thrashing of the Pirates. He was pretty lousy the rest of the year and by the middle of August he had seen the last of the big leagues forever. Cory is not the only Dodger Sn(y|i)der to hit three home runs in a game, by the way. His more famous homosurnym-mate Duke Snider hit three homers in a game twice but both came in Brooklyn.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Ethier -- 2
Kershaw -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( Mariners )
Beltre -- 1
Johjima -- 1
Vargas -- 1
Shawn Green 2001, 2002
Green did it twice. When his swing was right it was gorgeous, and so were the results. When his swing was wrong he kept opposing second basemen very busy. The 2002 occurrence was actually a four HR game, in which he set the major league record with 19 total bases in a nine inning game.
Mike Piazza 1996
Piazza was certainly a better player than Green, but in his prime Green hit more home runs than Piazza, and I figure the guy who did this twice really should be most likely.
Jimmy Wynn 1974
Wynn was very good hitter, though not an especially prodigious home run hitter. He did have 32 HR in 1974.
Andre Ethier 2009
Tonight's hero. Someday it might seem more likely that Ethier did it than Wynn, but for now I have Wynn ahead a little bit.
Hee Sop Choi 2005
Choi is one of three LA Dodgers to have a three home run game in his last major league season. Which is really strange. Choi was known as a home run hitter, but he didn't really hit that many. He was more well known, at least by me, for being behind Jason Philips on the first base depth chart for awhile in late 2005. Jim Tracy didn't really like him. He would have had about 30 home runs in 2005 if he had played every day. Instead he had 15, including 6 against the Twins in one memorable interleague series. Perhaps Ethier can match him.
Davey Lopes 1974
Joined Wynn in the triple homer game club in 1974, but he wasn't nearly the home run hitter Wynn was, having only 10 on the season. He did hit 28 in a season later in his career.
Kevin Elster 2000
It's a miracle Elster isn't last on this list. Not only was 2000 his last major league season, but he didn't even play in 1999. And yet Elster was actually a pretty good hitter in 2000, hitting 14 home runs and posting his only season with an OPS+ above 100, not counting an early season when he played in only 5 games. If this list was ranked on glory of the feat rather than on likelihood of the feat Elster would easily come out ahead, since his three home run game came in the first game ever played at Pac Bell Park. The Giants must have been so surprised to see Kevin bleeping Elster ruining their inauguration of the new digs.
Cory Snyder 1994
It took Cory Snyder to beat out Kevin Elster for most unlikely three homer game. Snyder had only 6 home runs in 1994, and three of them came in a crazy early season 19-2 thrashing of the Pirates. He was pretty lousy the rest of the year and by the middle of August he had seen the last of the big leagues forever. Cory is not the only Dodger Sn(y|i)der to hit three home runs in a game, by the way. His more famous homosurnym-mate Duke Snider hit three homers in a game twice but both came in Brooklyn.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Ethier -- 2
Kershaw -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( Mariners )
Beltre -- 1
Johjima -- 1
Vargas -- 1
Game 73 Unfair Loss Shares
In game 4 of the 2003 World Series Joe Torre made one of the most notorious decisions of his career, to bring in Jeff Weaver to pitch in a road extra-inning game rather than Mariano Rivera. At the time Weaver had not pitched in nearly a month, while Rivera was the best closer in the game. Weaver pitched a scoreless eleventh inning before giving up a home run to Alex Gonzalez to lose game 4. The Yankees would go on to lose the series in six games.
I wonder if Torre thought about that game when he brought Weaver in to pitch starting in the eleventh inning yesterday. I doubt it. Torre just isn't that kind of guy. It's pretty clear he doesn't have any doubts about how he uses his bullpen. Broxton is the closer, and closers are for leads and ties at home, and nothing else. Really. Broxton has entered 7 games with the score tied this year, all at home. All in either the ninth or tenth inning. Just once has he entered a game when the Dodgers trailed by one --- that was a game against the Phillies when the Dodgers rallied in the bottom of the ninth and Broxton picked up his sixth win. That is the only time this year Torre has deviated from his strict closer usage formula. It's pretty clear Torre never even considered using Broxton in yesterday's game. It's like he wasn't even available. Now if the Dodgers had picked up a lead, then he would have been available! It doesn't make sense to me, but I'm sure it makes perfect sense to Joe Torre.
I write all this not to complain but to simply understand. In truth I'm not really upset about Torre using Weaver instead of Broxton. First, this is just who Torre is, and it's going to be easier on me if I just accept that. Acceptance of certain flaws is vital for fans. Kemp is always going to strike out a lot. Lamar Odom of the Lakers is always going to make a few boneheaded plays per game. Kobe is always going to go into hero mode and shoot horrible shots once in a while. Vinny is going to coo over cute kids in the stands until I want to throw up. Sometimes you just have to utter the cliche phrase of our age --- it is what it is --- and move on.
Second, Weaver would have been in the game by the thirteenth inning anyway. Broxton maybe could have gone two innings if brought in, more likely one. In either case Weaver is on the hill for the thirteenth. Maybe if he starts pitching in the thirteenth the meltdown doesn't come until the fifteenth inning. Maybe.
Third, Weaver was effective for two innings. If the Dodgers had scored any runs in their four extra innings they probably would have won. I blame the Dodger offense for this defeat, more than any decision Torre made. Or perhaps I should credit the White Sox pitchers, especially Dotel. But no, I mostly blame the Dodger hitters. Kemp in particular was awful. He struck out 4 times while going 0 for 6. One of those strikeouts came when he failed to move Blake over from second with no outs in the ninth. Billingsley and Kemp each get an unfair loss share for their poor performances yesterday, that is easy. And the third --- I think that Weaver will not get it. It's a bit ridiculous to give a pitcher an unfair loss share for giving up one run in 3 innings, isn't it, even if that run lost the game, even if the shares are supposed to be in some sense unfair? No, I'm hitting Kemp with a second one. That's pretty unfair too, but his game was just awful. Kemp has arguably been the Dodger MVP so far and with that comes a higher standard. If he does his job with the bat at any point in the game, it's likely we never even have to see Weaver.
Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 2
Billingsley -- 1
Unfair Win Shares ( White Stockings )
Dotel -- 1
Podsednik -- 1
Pierzynski -- 1
I wonder if Torre thought about that game when he brought Weaver in to pitch starting in the eleventh inning yesterday. I doubt it. Torre just isn't that kind of guy. It's pretty clear he doesn't have any doubts about how he uses his bullpen. Broxton is the closer, and closers are for leads and ties at home, and nothing else. Really. Broxton has entered 7 games with the score tied this year, all at home. All in either the ninth or tenth inning. Just once has he entered a game when the Dodgers trailed by one --- that was a game against the Phillies when the Dodgers rallied in the bottom of the ninth and Broxton picked up his sixth win. That is the only time this year Torre has deviated from his strict closer usage formula. It's pretty clear Torre never even considered using Broxton in yesterday's game. It's like he wasn't even available. Now if the Dodgers had picked up a lead, then he would have been available! It doesn't make sense to me, but I'm sure it makes perfect sense to Joe Torre.
I write all this not to complain but to simply understand. In truth I'm not really upset about Torre using Weaver instead of Broxton. First, this is just who Torre is, and it's going to be easier on me if I just accept that. Acceptance of certain flaws is vital for fans. Kemp is always going to strike out a lot. Lamar Odom of the Lakers is always going to make a few boneheaded plays per game. Kobe is always going to go into hero mode and shoot horrible shots once in a while. Vinny is going to coo over cute kids in the stands until I want to throw up. Sometimes you just have to utter the cliche phrase of our age --- it is what it is --- and move on.
Second, Weaver would have been in the game by the thirteenth inning anyway. Broxton maybe could have gone two innings if brought in, more likely one. In either case Weaver is on the hill for the thirteenth. Maybe if he starts pitching in the thirteenth the meltdown doesn't come until the fifteenth inning. Maybe.
Third, Weaver was effective for two innings. If the Dodgers had scored any runs in their four extra innings they probably would have won. I blame the Dodger offense for this defeat, more than any decision Torre made. Or perhaps I should credit the White Sox pitchers, especially Dotel. But no, I mostly blame the Dodger hitters. Kemp in particular was awful. He struck out 4 times while going 0 for 6. One of those strikeouts came when he failed to move Blake over from second with no outs in the ninth. Billingsley and Kemp each get an unfair loss share for their poor performances yesterday, that is easy. And the third --- I think that Weaver will not get it. It's a bit ridiculous to give a pitcher an unfair loss share for giving up one run in 3 innings, isn't it, even if that run lost the game, even if the shares are supposed to be in some sense unfair? No, I'm hitting Kemp with a second one. That's pretty unfair too, but his game was just awful. Kemp has arguably been the Dodger MVP so far and with that comes a higher standard. If he does his job with the bat at any point in the game, it's likely we never even have to see Weaver.
Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 2
Billingsley -- 1
Unfair Win Shares ( White Stockings )
Dotel -- 1
Podsednik -- 1
Pierzynski -- 1
25 June 2009
Game 72 Unfair Loss Shares
Wolf lost the game, but the Dodgers weren't buried after he went out. If the Dodgers had received some good relief pitching, as they so often have this year, then they might have won the game, or at least sent it to extra innings. Instead Wade came in and laid an egg. The egg hatched and out came a couple of two run home runs.
Wade's ERA now sits at 5.88. That's bad, but sometimes with relievers ERA can be deceiving. Here is a look at Wade's distribution of runs allowed in each appearance:
0 runs -- 17
1 runs -- 3
2 runs -- 3
3 runs -- 0
4 runs -- 2
Wade almost never pitches more than an inning. When he has, it's been 2 innings, and he hasn't given up a run in any of those outings. Wade has also allowed two inherited runners to score, once a man at second with two outs, once a man at first with no outs. Both of those runs tied the game, and both came in games where Wade didn't allow a run of his own to score. So, of Wade's 25 appearances, 10 have hurt the Dodgers in some way. To me this isn't a very reliable reliever, though I suppose you can do a lot worse.
Mota, unlike Wade, pitched a scoreless inning yesterday. I've been down on Mota all year, but I'm wondering if maybe Mota is a better option than Wade at this point. Here is Mota's distribution of runs table:
0 runs -- 21
1 runs -- 2
2 runs -- 2
3 runs -- 2
4 runs -- 1
Mota has also allowed 7 inherited runners to score in 6 different games, though three of these runners were at third with less than two outs when he entered the game. Twice Mota allowed no runs of his own to score but did allow a preventable inherited runner to score, so Mota has hurt the Dodgers in 9 of his 28 appearances. Not great either, but a better rate than Wade. Mota's ERA is 4.80, a full run lower than Wade's. Does all this mean Mota is a better pitcher this year than Wade?
I guess it might. Both pitchers have 17 strikeouts, though Wade's have come in 4 fewer innings. ( 26 for Wade, 30 for Mota ) Mota has walked 13, while Wade has walked 10, but you know, Wade walked only 15 last year, in more than 70 innings. There's the biggest difference between 2008 Wade and 2009 Wade, I think. Meanwhile Mota has 7 strikeouts and just 1 walk in June, so maybe he has turned the corner. It sure seems as if Mota is headed in the right direction, and Wade is headed in the wrong direction, but you just never know with relievers. You can make all the plans you want and they will knock those plans right into a cocked hat.
Usage patterns for both relievers are revealing. Mota really hasn't been trusted at all this year. Most of his appearances have come when the Dodgers already trailed. He has never been called on with a small lead, outside of one game when he came in while the Dodgers led by 2. Now if the Dodgers have huge lead, Mota is your man, as he's mopped up three times when the Dodgers had a double digit lead. Mota has been called upon in four ties, but three of those were in extra innings when there were likely no other good options left. The fourth was the game he recently lost to the Angels in the eighth inning.
Unlike Mota, Wade has been trusted by Torre a lot this year. Most of his appearances have come when the Dodgers led. But clearly there has been a shift in Torre's trust in Wade. Before May 24, Wade had never been called to enter a game when the Dodgers trailed. Since that date, 7 of Wade's 11 appearances have come when the Dodgers trailed. He has recently entered two games in which the Dodgers led by 1, and both times he left with the Dodgers tied. Wade is clearly slipping down the bullpen depth chart and his bad performances are greasing the skids. Not too long ago it would have been Wade entering that tie against the Angels instead of Mota. ( Wade was available, having faced just three batters the day before and none the day before that. ) But now, Wade has replaced Mota as the Dodgers' worst reliever. At least until Will Ohman comes back.
Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Wolf -- 2
Wade -- 1
Unfair Win Shares ( White Stockings )
Fields -- 1
Dye -- 1
Floyd -- 1
Wade's ERA now sits at 5.88. That's bad, but sometimes with relievers ERA can be deceiving. Here is a look at Wade's distribution of runs allowed in each appearance:
0 runs -- 17
1 runs -- 3
2 runs -- 3
3 runs -- 0
4 runs -- 2
Wade almost never pitches more than an inning. When he has, it's been 2 innings, and he hasn't given up a run in any of those outings. Wade has also allowed two inherited runners to score, once a man at second with two outs, once a man at first with no outs. Both of those runs tied the game, and both came in games where Wade didn't allow a run of his own to score. So, of Wade's 25 appearances, 10 have hurt the Dodgers in some way. To me this isn't a very reliable reliever, though I suppose you can do a lot worse.
Mota, unlike Wade, pitched a scoreless inning yesterday. I've been down on Mota all year, but I'm wondering if maybe Mota is a better option than Wade at this point. Here is Mota's distribution of runs table:
0 runs -- 21
1 runs -- 2
2 runs -- 2
3 runs -- 2
4 runs -- 1
Mota has also allowed 7 inherited runners to score in 6 different games, though three of these runners were at third with less than two outs when he entered the game. Twice Mota allowed no runs of his own to score but did allow a preventable inherited runner to score, so Mota has hurt the Dodgers in 9 of his 28 appearances. Not great either, but a better rate than Wade. Mota's ERA is 4.80, a full run lower than Wade's. Does all this mean Mota is a better pitcher this year than Wade?
I guess it might. Both pitchers have 17 strikeouts, though Wade's have come in 4 fewer innings. ( 26 for Wade, 30 for Mota ) Mota has walked 13, while Wade has walked 10, but you know, Wade walked only 15 last year, in more than 70 innings. There's the biggest difference between 2008 Wade and 2009 Wade, I think. Meanwhile Mota has 7 strikeouts and just 1 walk in June, so maybe he has turned the corner. It sure seems as if Mota is headed in the right direction, and Wade is headed in the wrong direction, but you just never know with relievers. You can make all the plans you want and they will knock those plans right into a cocked hat.
Usage patterns for both relievers are revealing. Mota really hasn't been trusted at all this year. Most of his appearances have come when the Dodgers already trailed. He has never been called on with a small lead, outside of one game when he came in while the Dodgers led by 2. Now if the Dodgers have huge lead, Mota is your man, as he's mopped up three times when the Dodgers had a double digit lead. Mota has been called upon in four ties, but three of those were in extra innings when there were likely no other good options left. The fourth was the game he recently lost to the Angels in the eighth inning.
Unlike Mota, Wade has been trusted by Torre a lot this year. Most of his appearances have come when the Dodgers led. But clearly there has been a shift in Torre's trust in Wade. Before May 24, Wade had never been called to enter a game when the Dodgers trailed. Since that date, 7 of Wade's 11 appearances have come when the Dodgers trailed. He has recently entered two games in which the Dodgers led by 1, and both times he left with the Dodgers tied. Wade is clearly slipping down the bullpen depth chart and his bad performances are greasing the skids. Not too long ago it would have been Wade entering that tie against the Angels instead of Mota. ( Wade was available, having faced just three batters the day before and none the day before that. ) But now, Wade has replaced Mota as the Dodgers' worst reliever. At least until Will Ohman comes back.
Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Wolf -- 2
Wade -- 1
Unfair Win Shares ( White Stockings )
Fields -- 1
Dye -- 1
Floyd -- 1
24 June 2009
Game 71 Unfair Win Shares
The game got kind of boring in the middle innings. Boring in a good way, though, since the Dodgers led, and Kuroda was mowing them down. It's just that Danks was also mowing them down by then. Kuroda was great, and I guess he's still the same guy he was last year, running hot and cold, sporting a fine ERA even though it sure seems like he gets in trouble more often than a pitcher with a sub-4 ERA should. I just had a quick look at Kuroda's game log from both years with the Dodgers, and I have Kuroda with 21 good starts against 10 bad starts last year, and 4 good starts and 2 bad starts this year. I think we can live with a 2:1 ratio of good to bad.
It was nice to see Mitch Jones get a couple of hits. And Loney too, with a late single and his early home run to put the game firmly in the Dodgers' control. Fellow young scuffler Martin didn't get a hit, sadly, but I guess not everything can go right all the time.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kuroda -- 2
Loney -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( White Stockings )
Podsednik -- 1
Thome -- 1
Pierzynski -- 1
It was nice to see Mitch Jones get a couple of hits. And Loney too, with a late single and his early home run to put the game firmly in the Dodgers' control. Fellow young scuffler Martin didn't get a hit, sadly, but I guess not everything can go right all the time.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kuroda -- 2
Loney -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( White Stockings )
Podsednik -- 1
Thome -- 1
Pierzynski -- 1
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