I was as angry as I have ever been at the result of a game last night after the National League lost 4-3 to the American League.
Why?
It's hard to understand. I didn't even watch the first four innings. The All-Star game is not an event I look forward to. It seems more and more irrelevant each year. I'm ashamed that I would get so angry at the result of any game, let alone an All-Star game. And yet, when Tejada popped out to end the game, I was seething.
Why is it hard to understand? I wonder that, when I think of all the horrible, annoying things that have led up to the game, and that happened during the game. The American League's dominance. The Dodgers never getting to host a game since 1980. Charlie Manuel managing the team and stacking it with Phillies. Kemp not making the team. Fox doing a terrible, awful job of presenting the game. Interviews with players while the game is going on. The insistence on singing "God Bless America" during the seventh inning stretch. Tim McCarver. Joe Buck. Billingsley giving up a run. Mariano Rivera getting the save. Ryan Howard coming to the plate and striking out, and knowing it would happen because while he may be a productive hitter he can't hit good pitching to save his life, and the indignity of having to root for the overrated strikeout machine Phillie. Home field advantage being determined by the game.
That's the one. That's the one that has me so angry. Now look, I'm not assuming anything. Okay? I'm not assuming the Dodgers make the World Series; I'm not even assuming they make the playoffs. But if the Dodgers make the World Series, then they will have lost home field advantage through little fault of their own. See, if the Dodgers don't make the playoffs, or they don't advance past the first or second round, or if they enter the first or second round without home-field advantage, it will have been their fault. It will have been based on their play, their own failure in the field. But the World Series? It may be a relatively small thing, but if the Dodgers make the World Series they won't have home field advantage because of Ryan Howard and Heath Bell and Charlie Manuel.
What a thing. Why should Heath Bell have the power to alter the Dodgers destiny? Why? Why? For marketing. Because this time it counts.
Well, if it counted, why was Ryan Howard up there to strike out with the game on the line? If the National League was really trying their best to win, wouldn't Manny Ramirez have been named to the team? The problem with saying that "this time it counts" is that they don't construct the teams or manage the game as if it counts.
15 July 2009
13 July 2009
Weekender Unfair Shares
Game 87 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Weaver -- 1
Martin -- 1
Hudson -- 1
The Dodgers had a routine loss on Saturday. Bullpen swingman Weaver struggled against the tough Brewer lineup, and the Dodger offense had an off day with eight hits and no walks. This is one of those losses that should be quickly forgotten not because it was so excruciating but because there was really nothing to remember about it, except perhaps for the home runs Ethier and Furcal hit. Ethier's power surge and Furcal's overall resurgence are two great signs heading into the second half.
Game 87 Unfair Win Shares ( Brewmasters )
Hardy -- 1
McClung -- 1
Fielder -- 1
The Brewer pitching only solved the Dodgers during one stretch in this series: during the second half of the middle game when their relievers shut down the Dodgers and preserved a win. McClung was the biggest 'pen hero, and Hardy kept the pressure off of Hoffman in the ninth with his two run double.
Game 88 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Manny -- 1
Hudson -- 1
Kershaw -- 1
No room for Loney and his two runs batted in, sadly, with Hudson's ambidextrous power display and Manny never making an out. Kershaw had another fine game, though he was aided by fortune a few times. Nevertheless, that was his fifth straight road win, and his fifth straight road start with at least six innings pitched.
It should be mentioned that if not for Kemp's nice catch and throw to end the sixth inning with a double play, Kershaw might not have been able to go six. All those walks don't leave him much room for error, and he may not always be so lucky. Still, he's 21, with an ERA of 3.16. Isn't complaining about walks kind of missing the point?
Game 88 Unfair Loss Shares ( Brewers )
Gallardo -- 1
Braun -- 1
Cameron -- 1
Gallardo gave up five runs in five innings, and Braun went 0-5 with a pop out to end the game as the possible tying run, so they are easy choices. But what about Cameron? He had a double that led to a run scored, and later hit a sacrifice fly. Why do I pick on him?
He gets the unfair loss share because he failed in the key moment of the game for the Brewers. Kershaw was wild in the first inning, walking the bases loaded after a double by Cory Hart. Cameron came up with two outs. The count went full. And Cameron then swung at ball four and struck out. If Cameron had taken that pitch? Kershaw would at least have given up one run, and even if he recovered and gave up no more runs in that inning he likely wouldn't have made it through six. The Dodger 'pen would have been called in earlier, and maybe the Brewers could have completed their comeback against them.
Why did Cameron whiff in that crucial moment? What happened?
I don't know what happened inside Cameron's head, but I know what I feared most at that moment. It wasn't the walk, although I dreaded that too. It was that Kershaw would throw a fastball right down the heart of the plate, and that Cameron, a known fastball hitter, would crush it, for a homerun, or at least a bases-clearing double. Maybe Cameron was thinking the same thing. My fear, his hope, and in the end, both foiled by Kershaw's weakness, a ball outside of the strike zone. For one pitch, it was a strength.
Weaver -- 1
Martin -- 1
Hudson -- 1
The Dodgers had a routine loss on Saturday. Bullpen swingman Weaver struggled against the tough Brewer lineup, and the Dodger offense had an off day with eight hits and no walks. This is one of those losses that should be quickly forgotten not because it was so excruciating but because there was really nothing to remember about it, except perhaps for the home runs Ethier and Furcal hit. Ethier's power surge and Furcal's overall resurgence are two great signs heading into the second half.
Game 87 Unfair Win Shares ( Brewmasters )
Hardy -- 1
McClung -- 1
Fielder -- 1
The Brewer pitching only solved the Dodgers during one stretch in this series: during the second half of the middle game when their relievers shut down the Dodgers and preserved a win. McClung was the biggest 'pen hero, and Hardy kept the pressure off of Hoffman in the ninth with his two run double.
Game 88 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Manny -- 1
Hudson -- 1
Kershaw -- 1
No room for Loney and his two runs batted in, sadly, with Hudson's ambidextrous power display and Manny never making an out. Kershaw had another fine game, though he was aided by fortune a few times. Nevertheless, that was his fifth straight road win, and his fifth straight road start with at least six innings pitched.
It should be mentioned that if not for Kemp's nice catch and throw to end the sixth inning with a double play, Kershaw might not have been able to go six. All those walks don't leave him much room for error, and he may not always be so lucky. Still, he's 21, with an ERA of 3.16. Isn't complaining about walks kind of missing the point?
Game 88 Unfair Loss Shares ( Brewers )
Gallardo -- 1
Braun -- 1
Cameron -- 1
Gallardo gave up five runs in five innings, and Braun went 0-5 with a pop out to end the game as the possible tying run, so they are easy choices. But what about Cameron? He had a double that led to a run scored, and later hit a sacrifice fly. Why do I pick on him?
He gets the unfair loss share because he failed in the key moment of the game for the Brewers. Kershaw was wild in the first inning, walking the bases loaded after a double by Cory Hart. Cameron came up with two outs. The count went full. And Cameron then swung at ball four and struck out. If Cameron had taken that pitch? Kershaw would at least have given up one run, and even if he recovered and gave up no more runs in that inning he likely wouldn't have made it through six. The Dodger 'pen would have been called in earlier, and maybe the Brewers could have completed their comeback against them.
Why did Cameron whiff in that crucial moment? What happened?
I don't know what happened inside Cameron's head, but I know what I feared most at that moment. It wasn't the walk, although I dreaded that too. It was that Kershaw would throw a fastball right down the heart of the plate, and that Cameron, a known fastball hitter, would crush it, for a homerun, or at least a bases-clearing double. Maybe Cameron was thinking the same thing. My fear, his hope, and in the end, both foiled by Kershaw's weakness, a ball outside of the strike zone. For one pitch, it was a strength.
11 July 2009
The All-World Star: Game 86 Unfair Win Shares
Full of surprises, this one.
The home runs don't surprise. Not anymore. Not when that was what first got our attention, back in the summer of 2006. The home runs did surprise back then, when his sudden home run barrage of the first half of June made us all take notice and thrust him to the top of a Dodger prospect list loaded with great names like Billingsley and Broxton and Guzman. Seven home run in 14 days. Seven home runs in 11 games. The Bison had charged into the baseball universe. There were whispers of Pedro 85, a new June of power to remember, but then the pitchers figured him out, that he couldn't hit the breaking stuff, that he would go chasing low and away, and the home runs were gone, dried up, disintegrated in the wind. He went from being a regular in the outfield to being a hemi-regular to being sent back to the minors. He never did get past 7 home runs. But we knew he'd be back. The raw talent was there.
And yet I don't think I ever imagined anything quite like this back in 2006, when I imagined what kind of player Matt Kemp would be in the future. I didn't think he would become of all things a bunting savant, able now to lay a perfect bunt down the third base line that you couldn't roll any better, as he did, perhaps unwisely, but certainly spectacularly and surprisingly last night. We always thought he could become a great outfielder, or at least a good one, but that seemed far away in 2007, when his routes to fly balls frequently dismayed. He was stuck out of position in right field back then, blocked by Pierre in center. In April of that year he was injured by the infamous outfield scoreboard, and didn't make it back until June, when he had to battle Ethier and occasionally Luis Gonzalez for playing time. By the end of the year he was starting at least 2 out of 3 games, and hitting above 0.340, but no one ever would have said that he just had to be in center field to anchor the Dodger outfield defense, as we would now. He never even got to play there.
In 2008 the battle for playing time continued, but Kemp was winning more and more often, especially as the season progressed. Eventually Andruw Jones was exposed as terrible, and Pierre faded from must-play status. By the time Manny came to the Dodgers the Jones experience was over and Kemp was the regular center fielder. I don't remember marveling over his defense last year, but I also don't remember being dismayed over it. His batting average fell from what it was in 2007, but that was to be expected. He was a solid, not great hitter. He started drawing more walks. He displayed modest power. He was a solid player, not an all-star, maybe a minor star, surely a star in waiting. Little did we know. It was countdown to supernova.
We've gotten used to defensive brilliance from Kemp this year, but what he did in the tenth inning last night was something else again. That basket catch with his back to the flight of the ball was his announcement that indeed he is an All-Star. He doesn't need Charlie Manuel's validation. He knows it, and now everyone else knows it. That catch, and the subsequent leap against the wall in exhuberation were his promise to the baseball world.
He's just getting started.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Martin -- 1
Mota -- 1
So many candidates in this one. Troncoso and Manny and especially Loretta were tough omissions. Even Blake has a case. I'm not even sure if Kemp would have earned an unfair share, even with his grand slam, before the events of the bottom of the tenth, when his slam suddenly seemed much more important, and of course, that catch. I gave Martin one for his early home run and getting that crucial lead-off single against Hoffman. And Mota really saved the game in the sixth when he held the Brewers to just one run off of a bases loaded no outs situation. That was some clutch relief pitching.
Unfair Loss Shares ( Brewers )
Looper -- 1
Hoffman -- 1
Villanueva -- 1
Looper gave up 5 runs, Villanueva gave up 6, and Hoffman a mere 1, but Hoffman's run was the most damaging.
The home runs don't surprise. Not anymore. Not when that was what first got our attention, back in the summer of 2006. The home runs did surprise back then, when his sudden home run barrage of the first half of June made us all take notice and thrust him to the top of a Dodger prospect list loaded with great names like Billingsley and Broxton and Guzman. Seven home run in 14 days. Seven home runs in 11 games. The Bison had charged into the baseball universe. There were whispers of Pedro 85, a new June of power to remember, but then the pitchers figured him out, that he couldn't hit the breaking stuff, that he would go chasing low and away, and the home runs were gone, dried up, disintegrated in the wind. He went from being a regular in the outfield to being a hemi-regular to being sent back to the minors. He never did get past 7 home runs. But we knew he'd be back. The raw talent was there.
And yet I don't think I ever imagined anything quite like this back in 2006, when I imagined what kind of player Matt Kemp would be in the future. I didn't think he would become of all things a bunting savant, able now to lay a perfect bunt down the third base line that you couldn't roll any better, as he did, perhaps unwisely, but certainly spectacularly and surprisingly last night. We always thought he could become a great outfielder, or at least a good one, but that seemed far away in 2007, when his routes to fly balls frequently dismayed. He was stuck out of position in right field back then, blocked by Pierre in center. In April of that year he was injured by the infamous outfield scoreboard, and didn't make it back until June, when he had to battle Ethier and occasionally Luis Gonzalez for playing time. By the end of the year he was starting at least 2 out of 3 games, and hitting above 0.340, but no one ever would have said that he just had to be in center field to anchor the Dodger outfield defense, as we would now. He never even got to play there.
In 2008 the battle for playing time continued, but Kemp was winning more and more often, especially as the season progressed. Eventually Andruw Jones was exposed as terrible, and Pierre faded from must-play status. By the time Manny came to the Dodgers the Jones experience was over and Kemp was the regular center fielder. I don't remember marveling over his defense last year, but I also don't remember being dismayed over it. His batting average fell from what it was in 2007, but that was to be expected. He was a solid, not great hitter. He started drawing more walks. He displayed modest power. He was a solid player, not an all-star, maybe a minor star, surely a star in waiting. Little did we know. It was countdown to supernova.
We've gotten used to defensive brilliance from Kemp this year, but what he did in the tenth inning last night was something else again. That basket catch with his back to the flight of the ball was his announcement that indeed he is an All-Star. He doesn't need Charlie Manuel's validation. He knows it, and now everyone else knows it. That catch, and the subsequent leap against the wall in exhuberation were his promise to the baseball world.
He's just getting started.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Martin -- 1
Mota -- 1
So many candidates in this one. Troncoso and Manny and especially Loretta were tough omissions. Even Blake has a case. I'm not even sure if Kemp would have earned an unfair share, even with his grand slam, before the events of the bottom of the tenth, when his slam suddenly seemed much more important, and of course, that catch. I gave Martin one for his early home run and getting that crucial lead-off single against Hoffman. And Mota really saved the game in the sixth when he held the Brewers to just one run off of a bases loaded no outs situation. That was some clutch relief pitching.
Unfair Loss Shares ( Brewers )
Looper -- 1
Hoffman -- 1
Villanueva -- 1
Looper gave up 5 runs, Villanueva gave up 6, and Hoffman a mere 1, but Hoffman's run was the most damaging.
10 July 2009
Lineup Explosion! -- Game 85 Unfair Win Shares
1. Furcal -- Furcal scored 3 times, and was on base 4 times. The July anti-slump continues. If he can keep this up the rest of the year, we can merge Furcal's first half slump with his second half anti-slump and it will be as if Furcal never even played in 2009!
2. Ethier -- The first day of the Andre-protection program went well, as he had two hits and walk with Manny on deck. No, wait, the last hit came with Juan Pierre on deck. Did Pierre protect him?
3. Manny -- Have you ever seen the two guy? He's a lawyer by trade, a lover of twos by hobby. He's a duophile. His billboards used to be a common sight on the CA-99 between Fresno and Bakersfield. "Accidentes!" these billboards proclaimed at the top, below which was the smiling lawyer, holding up his phone number for all the world to see. 1-800-222-2222. Spectwocular. All twos. That was the two guy. If I ever get really rich, I'm going to buy that phone number for myself. Of course, I'll make sure it's unlisted so I don't get crank calls.
Anyway, yesterday Manny was the two guy. He went 2-2, with 2 walks, 2 runs scored, 2 runs batted in.
4. Blake -- Blake was 2-5, with a run scored and a run driven in, but by the standards of yesterday's offensive explosion that was a below average game.
5. Loney -- I checked, and there is nothing interesting at all to say about Loney's game yesterday. Here is where the wise-ass says that it didn't stop me for the first four Dodgers in the lineup!
6. Martin -- Martin's on base percentage is 0.374. He may be a huge disappointment this year, but one thing he's not is a black hole in the lineup.
7. Hudson -- Hudson's box score line is among the least impressive from last night's game, but he had the biggest hit of the game, even if he was very slightly aided by Evans' incompetence in the outfield.
8. Kemp -- Matty-boy is still batting eighth. Regarding this baffling and unpleasant subject there is a get-it-out-of-your-brain-and-then-never-again-complain session going on at Dodger Thoughts. Afterward all the comments will be burned and the ashes will be sprinkled into Joe Torre's Bigelow tea, as a sort of folk cure for his batting-the-BIG-kEmp-LOW affliction. ( See, it's obvious that the tea is subliminally affecting him --- Torre needs to start drinking Bisonforth tea. )
9. Wolf -- Wolf's record of 4-3 after last night's win matches his uniform number. If he wants his number to continue matching his number, he'll have to lose his next start, since 53 is unavailable. That was Don Drysdale's number which was retired in 1984. Since then it has been a thoughtcrime to even think about wearing 53. So don't think about it, Wolf!
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Wolf -- 1
Manny -- 1
Hudson -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( Metropolitans )
Evans -- 1
Hernandez -- 2
2. Ethier -- The first day of the Andre-protection program went well, as he had two hits and walk with Manny on deck. No, wait, the last hit came with Juan Pierre on deck. Did Pierre protect him?
3. Manny -- Have you ever seen the two guy? He's a lawyer by trade, a lover of twos by hobby. He's a duophile. His billboards used to be a common sight on the CA-99 between Fresno and Bakersfield. "Accidentes!" these billboards proclaimed at the top, below which was the smiling lawyer, holding up his phone number for all the world to see. 1-800-222-2222. Spectwocular. All twos. That was the two guy. If I ever get really rich, I'm going to buy that phone number for myself. Of course, I'll make sure it's unlisted so I don't get crank calls.
Anyway, yesterday Manny was the two guy. He went 2-2, with 2 walks, 2 runs scored, 2 runs batted in.
4. Blake -- Blake was 2-5, with a run scored and a run driven in, but by the standards of yesterday's offensive explosion that was a below average game.
5. Loney -- I checked, and there is nothing interesting at all to say about Loney's game yesterday. Here is where the wise-ass says that it didn't stop me for the first four Dodgers in the lineup!
6. Martin -- Martin's on base percentage is 0.374. He may be a huge disappointment this year, but one thing he's not is a black hole in the lineup.
7. Hudson -- Hudson's box score line is among the least impressive from last night's game, but he had the biggest hit of the game, even if he was very slightly aided by Evans' incompetence in the outfield.
8. Kemp -- Matty-boy is still batting eighth. Regarding this baffling and unpleasant subject there is a get-it-out-of-your-brain-and-then-never-again-complain session going on at Dodger Thoughts. Afterward all the comments will be burned and the ashes will be sprinkled into Joe Torre's Bigelow tea, as a sort of folk cure for his batting-the-BIG-kEmp-LOW affliction. ( See, it's obvious that the tea is subliminally affecting him --- Torre needs to start drinking Bisonforth tea. )
9. Wolf -- Wolf's record of 4-3 after last night's win matches his uniform number. If he wants his number to continue matching his number, he'll have to lose his next start, since 53 is unavailable. That was Don Drysdale's number which was retired in 1984. Since then it has been a thoughtcrime to even think about wearing 53. So don't think about it, Wolf!
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Wolf -- 1
Manny -- 1
Hudson -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( Metropolitans )
Evans -- 1
Hernandez -- 2
09 July 2009
The Advocate and I: Game 84 Unfair Loss Shares
Life is unfair. Baseball is unfair. Everything we do is unfair. Fairness has no chance against reality. This is the lesson the advocate must learn.
The first name I call is Casey Blake.
"Please", says the advocate for Blake. "Be fair. Be reasonable. My client walked four times. No Dodger got on base more often."
"And so?" says I. "He never scored. He never drove in a run. The Dodgers were adrift, and he did not paddle. He just rode on the raft."
The advocate stammers. "I -- I don't know what that means, and it's not his fault he didn't score."
"He might have hit a home run." The unfairness of my demand silences the advocate. How can you argue against such reckless expectations? We both know the reason, anyway. We both know why Blake is doomed. It has nothing to do with walks or home runs. Neither of us will say it. Third inning, Mets batting, one out, runners on first and second. Sharp ground ball to Blake's left, and they have a name for this kind of ground ball: 5-4-3 DP. Instead, the opposite of DP happens. What's the opposite of DP? PD. Pants Dropped. Blake let the ball go by, and he couldn't have been more embarrassed if his pants had dropped around his ankles. Two more runs scored because of his pants dropping moment.
The next name I call is The Rookie Kuroda.
"Hiroki Kuroda" corrects the advocate. He's cranky now, after he read my official summary where I referred to Blake's error as a pants drop.
"It's a little joke I have, because his first name sounds like 'the rookie' if you kind of say it slightly wrong. He certainly pitched like a rookie last night."
"He would have done better if not for Blake's error. He would have done better if all those ground balls hadn't found holes."
"He would have done better if he hadn't allowed so many doubles," says I. "The error had nothing to do with him loading the bases with no outs in the fifth inning. Kuroda was bad when he was unlucky and he was bad when he wasn't unlucky."
The advocate has nothing else to say. He knows the case for Kuroda is very thin. He's still upset about Blake.
The last name I call is Andre Ethier.
"What is the point," says the advocate. "You've already made up your mind. If you wouldn't have leniency on Blake, what chance does Ethier have?"
"He had his chance," I say, my outrage gathering. It is not outrage against Ethier, but against what the advocate is saying. "You use the wrong tense. Ethier has no chance now. It is done. He had his chance then."
"He lined out with the bases loaded," protests the advocate feebly. "If not for that ..."
"You are fading, advocate, because you know how the world works, and the assumptions behind your arguments are childish lies." I have an arrogant gleam in my eye as I speak now. "If Ethier's line drive had gone past Wright's glove, then he would not be in peril. It was caught, to his misfortune, to the Dodgers' misfortune, and yet he still had his chance. He had his chance, with the tying run on second, and go-ahead run on first, with one out in the ninth inning. Matt Kemp was on deck. Matt Kemp is still on deck. Waiting for that at bat, that chance. It will never come. The result is final. My judgment is final."
Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Blake -- 1
Kuroda -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Unfair Win Shares ( Mets )
Parnell -- 1
Wright -- 1
Reed -- 1
The first name I call is Casey Blake.
"Please", says the advocate for Blake. "Be fair. Be reasonable. My client walked four times. No Dodger got on base more often."
"And so?" says I. "He never scored. He never drove in a run. The Dodgers were adrift, and he did not paddle. He just rode on the raft."
The advocate stammers. "I -- I don't know what that means, and it's not his fault he didn't score."
"He might have hit a home run." The unfairness of my demand silences the advocate. How can you argue against such reckless expectations? We both know the reason, anyway. We both know why Blake is doomed. It has nothing to do with walks or home runs. Neither of us will say it. Third inning, Mets batting, one out, runners on first and second. Sharp ground ball to Blake's left, and they have a name for this kind of ground ball: 5-4-3 DP. Instead, the opposite of DP happens. What's the opposite of DP? PD. Pants Dropped. Blake let the ball go by, and he couldn't have been more embarrassed if his pants had dropped around his ankles. Two more runs scored because of his pants dropping moment.
The next name I call is The Rookie Kuroda.
"Hiroki Kuroda" corrects the advocate. He's cranky now, after he read my official summary where I referred to Blake's error as a pants drop.
"It's a little joke I have, because his first name sounds like 'the rookie' if you kind of say it slightly wrong. He certainly pitched like a rookie last night."
"He would have done better if not for Blake's error. He would have done better if all those ground balls hadn't found holes."
"He would have done better if he hadn't allowed so many doubles," says I. "The error had nothing to do with him loading the bases with no outs in the fifth inning. Kuroda was bad when he was unlucky and he was bad when he wasn't unlucky."
The advocate has nothing else to say. He knows the case for Kuroda is very thin. He's still upset about Blake.
The last name I call is Andre Ethier.
"What is the point," says the advocate. "You've already made up your mind. If you wouldn't have leniency on Blake, what chance does Ethier have?"
"He had his chance," I say, my outrage gathering. It is not outrage against Ethier, but against what the advocate is saying. "You use the wrong tense. Ethier has no chance now. It is done. He had his chance then."
"He lined out with the bases loaded," protests the advocate feebly. "If not for that ..."
"You are fading, advocate, because you know how the world works, and the assumptions behind your arguments are childish lies." I have an arrogant gleam in my eye as I speak now. "If Ethier's line drive had gone past Wright's glove, then he would not be in peril. It was caught, to his misfortune, to the Dodgers' misfortune, and yet he still had his chance. He had his chance, with the tying run on second, and go-ahead run on first, with one out in the ninth inning. Matt Kemp was on deck. Matt Kemp is still on deck. Waiting for that at bat, that chance. It will never come. The result is final. My judgment is final."
Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Blake -- 1
Kuroda -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Unfair Win Shares ( Mets )
Parnell -- 1
Wright -- 1
Reed -- 1
08 July 2009
Mostly About Kershaw: Game 83 Unfair Win Shares
Does Matt Kemp lead the major leagues in outfield assists? Almost, but no. Kemp has 9 assists. Jay Bruce of the Reds has 10.
Kershaw has been amazing lately, but I have had two worries about him. First, that he might be a home park pitcher who struggles on the road, and second, that he doesn't go deep enough into games. Regarding the first point, Kershaw still has a pronounced home/road ERA split of 1.85 vs 4.80, but I don't think it's a big deal at this point. Kershaw had very bad starts in Houston and Colorado early in the season, followed by a poor start in Philadelphia. Since then, though, he's been great on the road, pitching gems in Miami, Anaheim and New York City, and pitching a solid game in Denver that in context could probably be called a gem as well.
In fact, if anything Kershaw's home/road performance has reversed over the last month and a half. In his last four road starts he's gone 6 innings twice and 7 innings twice, while he's reached 6 innings only once in his last 6 home starts. Weird, yeah? I don't know that it means much, though. With home/road splits I think one needs to wait at least a season, and then another season, before making firm conclusions. And then be ready to revise those conclusions after the third season.
There is another Minotaurean split that is worth more scrutiny, though. That's the difference in Kershaw's performance against right handed batters and left handed batters.
Kershaw just destroys lefty hitters. They have a batting average of 0.175 against him, with an OPS of 0.476. Righty hitters fare better, but not by a lot --- they are batting 0.214 against with a 0.668 OPS. This split, by itself, is not surprising. A southpaw should do better against left-handed hitters than against right handed hitters.
What's really interesting is his walk rate against each kind of hitter. Kershaw walks 7% of lefty batters he sees, which is good, and 16% of righty batters he sees, which is not good. Since opposing teams tend to stack their lineups with right-handed hitters against Kershaw, that 16% is the important ratio, and results in Kershaw walking an awful lot of the hitters he faces, which surprisingly doesn't often lead to runs being scored, but does lead to him using a lot of pitches and leaving games earlier than we'd like.
To me this is really fascinating, though, because I think it shows that Kershaw can have a low walk rate. It's not just intrinsic wildness. He is perfectly accurate against lefty batters. If he could just pitch to righty hitters the way he pitches to the lefties ...
Well, maybe not. It's probably not that simple. Is Kershaw's relatively low batting average allowed to right handed batters a result of his extreme care with them? If he reduced the walks given up to righty hitters would the benefit be wiped out by a lot of extra hits being given up as well? I just don't know. I suppose a big part of this is his curveball, how it breaks to the different hitters, how easily he can locate it effectively in the strike zone against right vs left.
Clayton Kershaw gets compared with Sandy Koufax a lot, for a lot of obvious reasons. Kershaw's numbers this year against left-handed hitters are still a relatively small sample, but if you do take them at face value, then he's there, right there with Koufax in his prime, at least against left handed hitters. These are the left-handed hitters good enough not to be platooned out of the lineup, remember. Kershaw is dominating them just the way Koufax did in his prime. Against right handed batters, obviously, Kershaw still has plenty of work to justify any comparison with Koufax. He might never get there, but I think he will. He's only 21, and already this good.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kershaw -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Manny -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( Mets )
Pelfrey -- 2
Wright -- 1
Kershaw has been amazing lately, but I have had two worries about him. First, that he might be a home park pitcher who struggles on the road, and second, that he doesn't go deep enough into games. Regarding the first point, Kershaw still has a pronounced home/road ERA split of 1.85 vs 4.80, but I don't think it's a big deal at this point. Kershaw had very bad starts in Houston and Colorado early in the season, followed by a poor start in Philadelphia. Since then, though, he's been great on the road, pitching gems in Miami, Anaheim and New York City, and pitching a solid game in Denver that in context could probably be called a gem as well.
In fact, if anything Kershaw's home/road performance has reversed over the last month and a half. In his last four road starts he's gone 6 innings twice and 7 innings twice, while he's reached 6 innings only once in his last 6 home starts. Weird, yeah? I don't know that it means much, though. With home/road splits I think one needs to wait at least a season, and then another season, before making firm conclusions. And then be ready to revise those conclusions after the third season.
There is another Minotaurean split that is worth more scrutiny, though. That's the difference in Kershaw's performance against right handed batters and left handed batters.
Kershaw just destroys lefty hitters. They have a batting average of 0.175 against him, with an OPS of 0.476. Righty hitters fare better, but not by a lot --- they are batting 0.214 against with a 0.668 OPS. This split, by itself, is not surprising. A southpaw should do better against left-handed hitters than against right handed hitters.
What's really interesting is his walk rate against each kind of hitter. Kershaw walks 7% of lefty batters he sees, which is good, and 16% of righty batters he sees, which is not good. Since opposing teams tend to stack their lineups with right-handed hitters against Kershaw, that 16% is the important ratio, and results in Kershaw walking an awful lot of the hitters he faces, which surprisingly doesn't often lead to runs being scored, but does lead to him using a lot of pitches and leaving games earlier than we'd like.
To me this is really fascinating, though, because I think it shows that Kershaw can have a low walk rate. It's not just intrinsic wildness. He is perfectly accurate against lefty batters. If he could just pitch to righty hitters the way he pitches to the lefties ...
Well, maybe not. It's probably not that simple. Is Kershaw's relatively low batting average allowed to right handed batters a result of his extreme care with them? If he reduced the walks given up to righty hitters would the benefit be wiped out by a lot of extra hits being given up as well? I just don't know. I suppose a big part of this is his curveball, how it breaks to the different hitters, how easily he can locate it effectively in the strike zone against right vs left.
Clayton Kershaw gets compared with Sandy Koufax a lot, for a lot of obvious reasons. Kershaw's numbers this year against left-handed hitters are still a relatively small sample, but if you do take them at face value, then he's there, right there with Koufax in his prime, at least against left handed hitters. These are the left-handed hitters good enough not to be platooned out of the lineup, remember. Kershaw is dominating them just the way Koufax did in his prime. Against right handed batters, obviously, Kershaw still has plenty of work to justify any comparison with Koufax. He might never get there, but I think he will. He's only 21, and already this good.
Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kershaw -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Manny -- 1
Unfair Loss Shares ( Mets )
Pelfrey -- 2
Wright -- 1
07 July 2009
Unicorn Uniform
Picture the Dodgers uniform, the road gray, script blue lettering on the front, large blue number on the back, smaller red number on the front, all tied together with a Dodger blue cap with the classic interlocked LA logo in white. The uniform is elegant and complete. A man wearing this uniform is a Dodger, at a glance.
Change the cap to red, and the LA logo to a mash of red and white and stars and blue, and the uniform is broken. Stick a horn on a horse, and the noble beast is gone, replaced by a garish fantasy creature. Make the Dodgers wear red caps, and they are the unicorn Dodgers.
How is gaudiness a tribute? Why would anyone think making the uniform ugly and jarring honored anyone? It's a sacrifice --- but a pointless one.
Bud Selig pays tribute with a sledgehammer. Everyone will wear 42. Everyone will wear a red cap for a day. No, everyone will wear a red cap for a whole series. Frank McCourt follows his lead. God Bless America, every game! Soon Bud will mandate that every team sings God Bless America in the seventh inning stretch, and that every team wears ugly camouflage jerseys on Sundays. For Commissar Bud there is nothing that can't be improved by making it everywhere and all the time. And if you want to pay tribute? Just stick a horn on it and call it majestic.
Change the cap to red, and the LA logo to a mash of red and white and stars and blue, and the uniform is broken. Stick a horn on a horse, and the noble beast is gone, replaced by a garish fantasy creature. Make the Dodgers wear red caps, and they are the unicorn Dodgers.
How is gaudiness a tribute? Why would anyone think making the uniform ugly and jarring honored anyone? It's a sacrifice --- but a pointless one.
Bud Selig pays tribute with a sledgehammer. Everyone will wear 42. Everyone will wear a red cap for a day. No, everyone will wear a red cap for a whole series. Frank McCourt follows his lead. God Bless America, every game! Soon Bud will mandate that every team sings God Bless America in the seventh inning stretch, and that every team wears ugly camouflage jerseys on Sundays. For Commissar Bud there is nothing that can't be improved by making it everywhere and all the time. And if you want to pay tribute? Just stick a horn on it and call it majestic.
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