Todd Lynn Helton
Helton has become a doubles-and-walks hitter. These kinds of hitters tend to be slightly undervalued, because neither doubles nor walks show up in batting average or home run totals, and doubles will only marginally boost RBI totals. Of course, on-base percentage and slugging percentage and OPS are becoming more and more mainstream each year, and every baseball fan has heard of Helton, so I don't know if he's actually underrated at the moment. But I wonder if he still isn't seen mostly as a declining, overpaid, Coors-aided hitter these days?
Helton piled up 22 doubles on the road in 2007. His on-base percentage away from Coors was a terrific 0.407. Helton may not be the 1.100 OPS monster he was from 2000 to 2004, but he's still a terrific hitter. Even if his power has declined a bit from his hey-day he still a very tough out and a threat to drive in a runner from any base.
Matthew Thomas Holliday
Who is better, between Holliday and Helton, right now? I know, I know, the answer has to obviously be Holliday. But it's closer than I thought when I looked at it.
On the road, the 2007 comparison is kind of a wash. Helton has a higher on-base percentage, while Holliday has slightly more power. What about the things besides hitting? They both play pretty good defense at offensive positions, though Helton is at the easier position. ( Both are near the top of the NL in 2007 in the RZR rankings at hardballtimes.com ) Holliday has okay speed, while Helton has become a plodder.
It's in Coors field where Holliday really comes out ahead of Helton. Holliday is taking advantage of the extra Coors homeruns while Helton isn't.
If the comparison is between Holliday at his peak and Helton at is peak, then there is no contest. Helton wins easily. Now Holliday's true offensive peak may yet be higher in coming years, but since he's already 28 he's not likely to get a whole let better than he already is. Speaking as a Dodger fan, I think Holliday and Helton are both plenty good already.
Troy Trevor Tulowitzki
He has some pretty extreme home-road splits. Maybe that shouldn't be held against him too much. My understanding is that it's hard to hit well on the road after getting used to the favorable hitting conditions at Coors. It must be even harder on a young player. Still, his road OPS of 0.720 doesn't scream out "star player", even if he is a fine defensive shortstop.
I guess he is a star, though. The home numbers are terrific and it seems he's going to only get better. I'd love for him to be a Dodger, sure, though if Furcal is healthy this year he might just have a better year than Troy.
If Tulowitzki ever wants to have a shot at becoming the best shortstop in a league with Rollins and Ramirez and Reyes, he'll have to decrease his strikeout rate and increase his walk rate. The power is there, the great defense is there. He can hit. He just has to be more discerning at the plate.
Entering last year the Rockies were offensively great at the four corners of first base, third base and left and right field, but not good at all up the middle at short, second, center field and catcher. Those up-the-middle defensive positions are of course the hardest to fill with good offensive players. The emergence of Tulowitzki last year really helped the Rockies offense and was one reason they were able to climb all the way to the peak before being dropped into the wood-chipper in the World Series.
Bradley Bonte Hawpe
I swear I don't remember ever typing out the name "Bonte" last year, which is strange, because I must have done player capsules on the Rockies at some point last year, right? I'm too lazy to do a search of my own blog to find out. But not too lazy to go ahead and make a horrible pun in the next paragraph. It's all about priorities.
Brad Hawpe had one sacrifice hit last year. This is one too many for a player as solid offensively as Hawpe is. But my question is this --- when he bunted to get that sacrifice hit, did Hurdle give him the "bonte" sign?
Garrett Bernard Atkins
Atkins had a poor April last year, and then followed it with a brutally bad May. Not a Kouzmanoff-in-April-of-2007 bad, but pretty bad nonetheless. And then after that he was terrific. I wonder how he starts out this year?
Yorvit Adolfo Torrealba and Christopher Domenic Iannetta
The good news for the Rockies in their quest for offense up the middle ends with Tulowitzki at short. The other three positions are still black-and-purple holes in the lineup, and it begins with the catching tandem of Torrealba and Iannetta.
In limited at bats at home last year Iannetta bizarrely had an OPS of 0.538. I think even Mark Hendrickson would do better than that, given 100 at-bats in Coors Field. ( Especially if he was allowed to bat against a clone of himself. ) In more playing time than his catching-mate, Torrealba was lucky sevens at home with a 0.777 OPS, but his road stats were miserable. Unless young Iannetta suddenly gets better there's not a lot to choose from here.
I guess Torrealba will get the bulk of the playing time again, but I doubt it matters much who gets it. I'm so glad the Dodgers have Russell Martin.
Willy Taveras
He's younger. He gets on base more. He has a much better throwing arm. He has more power, though it's close. He doesn't wear a batting helmet 4 sizes too big for him.
So Taveras wins a comparison with Juan Pierre. Kudos!
What he won't win is a comparison with Ryan Spilborghs, and yet Taveras is still the probable starter in center field. I feel your pain, Rockies fans.
Jayson Truitt Edward Nix
The Rockies will miss Kaz Matsui. They'll miss him for his good defense, but even more they'll miss him because they're apparently replacing a slightly sub-average offensive second baseman with a completely untested young non-prospect who is almost certain to be awful unless his swing changes and hot few months to end last year really mean something.
Check out some projections of how he might do in about 450 at bats this year. They average about a 0.250 batting average, single digit home runs, 30 walks --- there's just nothing in his minor league record to suggest he'll be any kind of answer at second base. I know, he fixed his swing. I've heard that before. At least he has a stellar defensive reputation. He was drafted as a shortstop, after all.
To be fair no one has yet said Nix will be the second base starter --- he just seems to be the frontrunner right now. He's out of options and he closed out last year in AAA very hot. He's listed at the top of the depth chart for the Rockies at their official site, whatever that is worth. Glove man Omar Quintanilla is also a candidate to win the second base job, but he doesn't figure to do any better. Barmes, Baker, and Stuart are also in the mix at second. And then there is also Marcus Giles in camp with a minor league deal. Second base for the Rockies is rather mysterious right now.
Summary
The Rockies have fewer offensive question marks than most teams. You pretty much know what you're going to get from the big four corner players. None of them are very young or very old so you won't see a big improvement or decline from any of them. Unless Iannetta can really break out they won't get much from catcher. There are a lot of mediocre players competing to see who can put up lousy numbers at second base. Taveras is who he is in center field --- a slightly better version of Juan Pierre. Only Tulowitzki is a real question mark --- he could improve dramatically, or take a step back, or anything in between. Young second year players are like that. Given that the Rockies are going to have three holes in their lineup, they really need Tulowitzki to keep improving.
It's hard to say how good the Rockies offense really is, given park effects in Coors and especially the hitting-away-from-Coors effects. Their offense on the road isn't really anything too special, but if the pitching is a team strength again then the Rockies should be able to tread water at about 0.500 on the road and excel at home, which is how they won the NL wild card last year.
So pitching really is the key to the Rockies repeating their playoff trip this year, and I'll look at the Rockies pitching in the next entry.
12 March 2008
07 March 2008
Kershaw Enough
Chad Billingsley was 22 at the beginning of 2007 when the Dodger sensibly assigned him to bullpen duty for the first half of the season, thereby limiting his total innings on the year to 147. Clayton Kershaw will turn 20 later this month. He is almost 3 full years younger than Billingsly was at the beginning of last year. Would the Dodgers dare start the year with Kershaw in the starting rotation?
Via Dodger Thoughts I came across the story by Ken Gurnick about the possibility that the Dodgers might go with Kershaw as the fifth starter to begin 2008. In spite of Honeycutt and Martin talking about it as if it might happen, I really don't think it will. And as much as the fan in me wants to see Kershaw make the starting rotation, I don't think it should happen either.
The Dodgers have to limit Kershaw's innings this year, and next year, and probably the year after as well. More specifically, they have to limit his pitches thrown. Kershaw has major league stuff right now, clearly. But he probably doesn't have major league command yet. And that means walks and high pitch counts. He could easily throw 110 pitches in a five inning start. If Kershaw thrives in the rotation to begin the year, will the Dodgers be able to take him out of the rotation later in the year to keep his overall pitch count down? Will Torre take him out after four innings if he's already thrown 95 pitches but only given up one run?
I would by far rather watch Kershaw pitch than Loaiza pitch. That said, Loaiza is probably a better pitcher in April of 2008 than Kershaw is. Kershaw has only pitched 24.2 innings above single A ball in non-exhibition games. He walked 17 and struck out 29 in those innings, which in a nutshell shows both his awesome talent and his need for more seasoning. If Kershaw starts the year in AA or AAA, he can work on his command without pressure, and the Dodgers can put hard limits on his pitches thrown. By August of this year, Kershaw may well be a better option than Loaiza, and by that time the Dodgers could plug him into the rotation without worrying too much about wrecking his arm.
Still, if the Dodgers started the year with Kershaw in the rotation, I would be beyond excited, in spite of my rational misgivings. What a ticket that would be to get, to see Kershaw's first home start!
Via Dodger Thoughts I came across the story by Ken Gurnick about the possibility that the Dodgers might go with Kershaw as the fifth starter to begin 2008. In spite of Honeycutt and Martin talking about it as if it might happen, I really don't think it will. And as much as the fan in me wants to see Kershaw make the starting rotation, I don't think it should happen either.
The Dodgers have to limit Kershaw's innings this year, and next year, and probably the year after as well. More specifically, they have to limit his pitches thrown. Kershaw has major league stuff right now, clearly. But he probably doesn't have major league command yet. And that means walks and high pitch counts. He could easily throw 110 pitches in a five inning start. If Kershaw thrives in the rotation to begin the year, will the Dodgers be able to take him out of the rotation later in the year to keep his overall pitch count down? Will Torre take him out after four innings if he's already thrown 95 pitches but only given up one run?
I would by far rather watch Kershaw pitch than Loaiza pitch. That said, Loaiza is probably a better pitcher in April of 2008 than Kershaw is. Kershaw has only pitched 24.2 innings above single A ball in non-exhibition games. He walked 17 and struck out 29 in those innings, which in a nutshell shows both his awesome talent and his need for more seasoning. If Kershaw starts the year in AA or AAA, he can work on his command without pressure, and the Dodgers can put hard limits on his pitches thrown. By August of this year, Kershaw may well be a better option than Loaiza, and by that time the Dodgers could plug him into the rotation without worrying too much about wrecking his arm.
Still, if the Dodgers started the year with Kershaw in the rotation, I would be beyond excited, in spite of my rational misgivings. What a ticket that would be to get, to see Kershaw's first home start!
04 March 2008
2008 Padres Pitchers Preview
Be sure to check out the previous entry on the Padre position players for 2008.
Christopher Ryan Young
I just wonder if a guy so tall and powerful can stay healthy, or if he'll continue to have back problems, as he did in the last two months of 2007. Young started slowly in 2007, then was the best pitcher in the major leagues from May to July.
April ERA --- 4.33
May ERA --- 1.13
June ERA --- 1.52
July ERA --- 0.41
Sometime in August Young's back really began to bother him.
August ERA --- 5.48
September ERA --- 6.27
He just wasn't the same pitcher at the end of the year. His walks were way up, and he started giving up home runs again, too, after banishing them after his so-so April.
The Padres really need Young to be healthy, because after him and Peavy the rotation is awfully thin, unless one pretends name recognition equals depth.
Jacob Edward Peavy
What is there to say? His road ERA last year was 2.57. He struck out more than a batter an inning, and walked less than one every three innings. He allowed only 13 home runs last year, including one to Nomar Garciaparra! He is the best pitcher in the NL West, and we may see a terrific duel for the 2008 NL Cy Young between him and Santana.
Gregory Alan Maddux
Maddux just doesn't strike hitters out anymore. He stays average by keeping his walk totals way down. His road ERA was 4.65 last year. At the age of 41 he's become the classic innings-eater. See, Brett Tomko, this is how it's done. Being an innings-eater doesn't mean you get to completely stink.
Maddux is about a 2-1 ground ball pitcher. He would really benefit from some stellar infield defense, but I don't think he's going to get it. At best that infield defense is average, though I know a lot of people have a higher regard for Greene's defense than I do.
Last year the Padres were 17-17 when Maddux started. I just wonder if the Padres offense will score enough this year for them to be break even in Maddux's starts again this year.
Randall Christopher Wolf
My prediction for Wolf in 2008: Two months of great pitching, two months of bad pitching when he's fighting injury, and two months on the DL. This would be one more great month than he gave the Dodgers in 2007.
It's just impossible to know with Wolf. It's a good gamble by the Padres to sign him, because when healthy Wolf is good. But realistically the Padres can't be counting on Wolf any more than the Dodgers can be counting on Schmidt.
Mark William Prior
The depth chart on the Padres official website lists him as the fifth starter. So does the depth chart on espn.com. Well, okay. Prior didn't pitch last year. He made 9 starts in 2006 for an ERA of 7.21. I'll believe it when I see it, I guess.
Strikeout challenged Justin Germano is also a rotation possibility, as is imported reliever Ledezma. By August the Padres may well have a rotation of Peavy, Maddux, and three new faces, if injuries hit them hard. Even if Young stays healthy the entire year the Padres don't have a lot of depth in the rotation, unless having a lot of injury-prone guys counts as depth.
The Padres have a lefty prospect named Wade LeBlanc who might be called up into the rotation by the middle of 2008. Maybe prospect Josh Geer could be called up at some point. But the Padres have no one who is likely to be any better than Justin Germano or a declining Greg Maddux, no Clayton Kershaw who could potentially set the world on fire when he comes up. ( Not saying that Kershaw would do that, only that it's a reasonable possiblity. ) Peavy and Young are great, but with their so-so offense the Padres can't afford to have three middling starters behind them, and that's what they are likely to have most of the year. But if Wolf can stay healthy and put it all together, then this rotation looks a whole lot better.
Bullpen
Trevor Hoffman just isn't as good as his reputation anymore, or maybe it is, since his reputation should have taken a hit after how he ended 2007. Hoffman is still a good closer, though he had an ERA above 4.5 on the road last year. ( Small sample size, though. ) Bell, Cameron, and Thatcher were terrific. Meredith was okay. With relievers one never knows, ( see Linebrink's decline last year ) but this looks like a team strength headed into 2008. If I had to guess I'd say the Padres will have a better 'pen in 2008 than the Dodgers, but only barely, by the long hair of a Beimel.
Summary
Maybe everything breaks right for the Padres, and they have terrific pitching again, enough to carry their suspect offense. With Peavy and Young in the rotation and their good bullpen they certainly have to be considered contenders. But I just can't see picking them to win the NL West. Right now both the Snakes and Rockies look better than the Padres, and the Dodgers too, though the Dodgers have so many question marks that it's hard to say that for sure. But the Dodgers have two things the Padres don't have: true depth in the starting pitching and lots of offensive players with potential to get better. I see a fourth place finish for the Friars in 2008. The Padres seem to have some good young players come up through the farm system, and their GM is top-notch, so even if they slip in 2008 they may be right back in the mix by 2009.
Christopher Ryan Young
I just wonder if a guy so tall and powerful can stay healthy, or if he'll continue to have back problems, as he did in the last two months of 2007. Young started slowly in 2007, then was the best pitcher in the major leagues from May to July.
April ERA --- 4.33
May ERA --- 1.13
June ERA --- 1.52
July ERA --- 0.41
Sometime in August Young's back really began to bother him.
August ERA --- 5.48
September ERA --- 6.27
He just wasn't the same pitcher at the end of the year. His walks were way up, and he started giving up home runs again, too, after banishing them after his so-so April.
The Padres really need Young to be healthy, because after him and Peavy the rotation is awfully thin, unless one pretends name recognition equals depth.
Jacob Edward Peavy
What is there to say? His road ERA last year was 2.57. He struck out more than a batter an inning, and walked less than one every three innings. He allowed only 13 home runs last year, including one to Nomar Garciaparra! He is the best pitcher in the NL West, and we may see a terrific duel for the 2008 NL Cy Young between him and Santana.
Gregory Alan Maddux
Maddux just doesn't strike hitters out anymore. He stays average by keeping his walk totals way down. His road ERA was 4.65 last year. At the age of 41 he's become the classic innings-eater. See, Brett Tomko, this is how it's done. Being an innings-eater doesn't mean you get to completely stink.
Maddux is about a 2-1 ground ball pitcher. He would really benefit from some stellar infield defense, but I don't think he's going to get it. At best that infield defense is average, though I know a lot of people have a higher regard for Greene's defense than I do.
Last year the Padres were 17-17 when Maddux started. I just wonder if the Padres offense will score enough this year for them to be break even in Maddux's starts again this year.
Randall Christopher Wolf
My prediction for Wolf in 2008: Two months of great pitching, two months of bad pitching when he's fighting injury, and two months on the DL. This would be one more great month than he gave the Dodgers in 2007.
It's just impossible to know with Wolf. It's a good gamble by the Padres to sign him, because when healthy Wolf is good. But realistically the Padres can't be counting on Wolf any more than the Dodgers can be counting on Schmidt.
Mark William Prior
The depth chart on the Padres official website lists him as the fifth starter. So does the depth chart on espn.com. Well, okay. Prior didn't pitch last year. He made 9 starts in 2006 for an ERA of 7.21. I'll believe it when I see it, I guess.
Strikeout challenged Justin Germano is also a rotation possibility, as is imported reliever Ledezma. By August the Padres may well have a rotation of Peavy, Maddux, and three new faces, if injuries hit them hard. Even if Young stays healthy the entire year the Padres don't have a lot of depth in the rotation, unless having a lot of injury-prone guys counts as depth.
The Padres have a lefty prospect named Wade LeBlanc who might be called up into the rotation by the middle of 2008. Maybe prospect Josh Geer could be called up at some point. But the Padres have no one who is likely to be any better than Justin Germano or a declining Greg Maddux, no Clayton Kershaw who could potentially set the world on fire when he comes up. ( Not saying that Kershaw would do that, only that it's a reasonable possiblity. ) Peavy and Young are great, but with their so-so offense the Padres can't afford to have three middling starters behind them, and that's what they are likely to have most of the year. But if Wolf can stay healthy and put it all together, then this rotation looks a whole lot better.
Bullpen
Trevor Hoffman just isn't as good as his reputation anymore, or maybe it is, since his reputation should have taken a hit after how he ended 2007. Hoffman is still a good closer, though he had an ERA above 4.5 on the road last year. ( Small sample size, though. ) Bell, Cameron, and Thatcher were terrific. Meredith was okay. With relievers one never knows, ( see Linebrink's decline last year ) but this looks like a team strength headed into 2008. If I had to guess I'd say the Padres will have a better 'pen in 2008 than the Dodgers, but only barely, by the long hair of a Beimel.
Summary
Maybe everything breaks right for the Padres, and they have terrific pitching again, enough to carry their suspect offense. With Peavy and Young in the rotation and their good bullpen they certainly have to be considered contenders. But I just can't see picking them to win the NL West. Right now both the Snakes and Rockies look better than the Padres, and the Dodgers too, though the Dodgers have so many question marks that it's hard to say that for sure. But the Dodgers have two things the Padres don't have: true depth in the starting pitching and lots of offensive players with potential to get better. I see a fourth place finish for the Friars in 2008. The Padres seem to have some good young players come up through the farm system, and their GM is top-notch, so even if they slip in 2008 they may be right back in the mix by 2009.
2008 Padres Position Player Preview
Khalil Thabit Greene
I look at this player's stats and hold my nose. I'm so overwhelmed by what he doesn't do well that I am temporarily unaware of what he does do well. It's the stench of a low on-base percentage that gets me every time. His OBP last season was 0.291. His career OBP is 0.312. Those are some rotten numbers. I don't catch a whiff of the sweet smell of 27 home runs and decent defense from the shortstop position.
On the road Greene is undeniably a good, though flawed, player. On the road he's a 0.800 OPS shortstop. Man, you sure don't turn up your nose at that kind of player. Okay, so his road on-base percentage is a little low, at 0.320 most years. You can live with that given all the power he brings. Heck, Greene's road stats are similar to the road stats of young Rockie phenom Troy Tulowitzki, save for the small fact that Greene's slugging is 100 points higher!
It's at home that Greene delivers the true stink-bomb. Okay, most everyone knows that Petco is a tough place to hit. Every Padre regular with the exception of Milton Bradley took a big hit in offensive stats at Petco last year. ( Bradley had close to a 1.000 Petco OPS in a mere 23 games there last year. ) The great Adrian Gonzalez becomes a 0.760 OPSing weakling in Petco. So it happens. But at least all these other players are able to maintain respectable home on-base percentages. They all get on base about 1 out of 3 times at home. But not Greene. He only gets on base 1 out of 4 times at Petco. His home on-base percentage was a putrid 0.258 last year. Why? Is it the strikeouts? He had 77 at home last year. Lucky sevens, for opposition pitchers. He only had 51 on the road. Why would players strike out more at Petco Park, anyway, as they do as a group? Is it just because the park is bigger? Something about the San Diego air? The mound? I don't get it.
The Padres signed Greene to a two year deal this off-season to avoid arbitration. That's probably a good thing, since arbitrators are unlikely to care about things like on-base percentage and instead focus on counting stats like home runs. On the other hand, arbitrators are unlikely to care about park-factors as well. Nevertheless, he's signed, and now the Padres should try to trade him. So much of Greene's value is sucked away by Petco Park. He's not good enough defensively to make up for being so bad at home. He's no Adam Everett with the glove. Last year by hardballtimes.com's zone rating (RZR) Greene was slightly above average; in previous years he was about average.
But the Padres don't really have any young shortstop who is close to being ready to take over for Greene if they traded him, so they'd have to get a shortstop back in a trade. It would be hard for them to find a good fit, I think. Teams don't much go for challenge trades anymore, where you swap guys of the same position for each other. It's a pity for the Padres, since they aren't getting full value from Greene's talents. Greene would be great with the Phillies, for example, his talents maximized there. Not that the Phillies need a shortstop!
Kevin Kouzmanoff
The Padre third basemen may end up as a 0.850 OPS guy on the road. That's good. He has power, but as is usual Petco Park kills his home home run total. But even on the road his on-base percentage is a middling 0.330. Between him and Greene a lot of outs are being used up. That's not something to dismiss lightly --- outs are precious, in limited supply. You only get 27 per regulation game, and here are two of the Padres better offensive players sucking them down. Kouzmanoff was average with the glove last year based on the RZR stat from hardballtimes.com.
Kouz finished aces last year, with a 1.031 OPS in September. He hit 0.380 that month --- he's not going to come close to that over a full season, so this month should probably be viewed as just a lucky hot stretch. If, however, his dip in strikeout rate in September was real, then maybe some of that apparent improvement is also real. So how good is he going to be? Who knows? How good will Matt Kemp or James Loney of the Dodgers be, or Justin Upton of the Snakes be? The big difference between those players and Kouzmanoff is that Kouz is already 26. He's not likely to get a whole lot better, though a small improvement in last year's stats seems indicated here. It is, however, a good bet that the Padres will get more production out of third base than the Dodgers, especially if LaRoche is stuck behind Garciaparra by veteran loving Joe Torre.
Tadahito Iguchi
He signed a one-year deal with the Padres this offseason to play second base. Given how awful Marcus Giles was last year, he almost has to be an upgrade. But he may not be. His road OPS over the past three years is just 0.709. His overall batting line doesn't look too bad, because of hitter-friendly home parks in southside Chicago and Philadelphia, but once he's forced to take half his hacks at Petco this year his overall line may end up closer to the cumulative 0.661 OPS Padres second basemen put up last year.
Iguchi isn't a glove wizard either. His American League RZR had been consistently near the bottom the last few years. Iguchi isn't awful, I guess. He'll steal a few bases, draw some walks, hit a few home runs, but when you put it all together he's a below average second baseman, and at 33 he's not likely to get any better. The Padres had a great opportunity to really improve their second-base production from last year and it looks to me like they blew it. Of course it's easier to say "let's get a better second baseman" and harder to actually do it. This is a position they might look to upgrade at the trade deadline, but more likely they'll be more pre-occpupied with getting a decent outfielder onto the team at that point.
Adrian Gonzalez
On the road Gonzalez is a +0.900 OPS star. He's what the Dodgers hope Loney will become. It would be better for the Padres if he was more of a 0.400-0.500 guy than the 0.350-0.550 guy that he is: in other words, it would be better for the Padres if he was more of a high walk/good power guy than a medium walk/great power guy. So much of Gonzalez's great power is wasted in Petco ( 10 HR at home, 20 HR on the road ) and while his 0.347 on-base percentage is decent the Padres could really use a 0.400 OBP kind of guy to balance out those high power/high out guys on the left side of the infield. It's really kind of goofy and counter-productive that the strength of so many Padre players is home run power. This is just quibbling, though. Gonzalez is the Padres best offensive player by far.
Last year in 80 plate appearances Gonzelez had a 0.450 OPS against Dodger pitching, with just one home run. Probably just a one year fluke. In spite of getting nothing from Gonzalez the Padres won 10 of 18 from the Dodgers last year.
The Padres signed Tony Clark for some reason. He can only play first base, so does that mean he'll take at-bats away from Gonzalez?
Joshua David Bard and Michael Patrick Barrett
Barrett is a 31-year old catcher who had a 0.650 OPS last year after three straight +0.800 OPS years. I'm going with the pessimistic interpretation here and saying that Barrett's skills are decomposing. It's rarely wise to bet on a catcher older than 30. Bard isn't that much younger at 29, but he seems by far the better of the two and I think he'll eventually see about two thirds of the starts behind the plate. Bard actually had a higher on-base percentage than Adrian Gonzalez last year. He's a nice complementary player for the Padre lineup. Goodness knows they need to get something from their catcher given the lousy production they can look forward to from the outfield in 2008.
Scott Alexander Hairston
I guess he's the starting left fielder for the Padres in 2008. I'm looking at their roster, trying to see if there is another option. Paul McAnulty? He's even more of a AAAA fourth-outfielder type than Hairston is. At least both Hairston and McAnulty are 27. Maybe one of them will break out with a career year. More likely they'll hit 15 home runs combined, with an on-base percentage hovering around Khalil Greene territory. The Padres are going to miss Milton Bradley so much. Why didn't they try harder to resign him?
Brian Stephen Giles
I guess the plus side of him losing his power is that the Padres can't miss it at Petco. Now he did hit 11 home runs in the last two months of 2007 after only 2 in the previous four months, so maybe some injury healed ( unlikely, right? --- since when do injuries heal while playing regularly in the middle of the season? ) or maybe he "fixed" his swing. He's still a good on-base guy regardless of his power issues, which the Padres sorely need. But he's 37 and apparently on the very steep downslope of his career. It's no sure thing that the Padres will get anything like even 150 games out of him. They need help in the outfield.
James Patrick Edmonds
And Edmonds is not that help. He seems to be an even older 37 than Giles' 37. He was really wretched in 2007, after being not so great in 2006, after being very good in 2005, after being unbelievable in 2004. Here's the OPS progression from 2004 to 2007: 1.061 -- 0.918 -- 0.821 -- 0.728. He loses a shcoking 100 points a year, so this year he'll have an OPS of 0.631, give or take a few points. Don't laugh. Now that he's playing half his games in Petco, it could happen.
Edmonds no longer matches his defensive reputation either. His RZR the last two years has been in the bottom half of the National League.
There are rumors that the Padres might try to trade for Brewer outfielder Gabe Gross. Gross isn't much with the bat either, but given how unlikely it is for both Giles and Edmonds to stay healthy all year they just need more warm bodies. The Padres may also give prospects Headley and Antonelli a shot at left field. Sounds good, except that neither has played extensively above AA, and neither has even been an outfielder in the minor leagues!
Summary
The Padre offense is going to struggle in 2008, and it's going to be because of their outfielders. The Dodgers have a lot of question marks on their offense, but unlike the Padres they Dodgers have very young players likely to improve and relatively young players likely to bounce back from poor performances last year. The Padres have a lot of old, declining players. Gonzalez is great, Kouz should be a little better than last year, Greene is good on the road, Bard is solid, and that's about it. It's all about the pitching for the Padres, even more so than in past years. The Padres may yet finish better than the Dodgers, but I don't see their offense being good enough to win the NL West.
I look at this player's stats and hold my nose. I'm so overwhelmed by what he doesn't do well that I am temporarily unaware of what he does do well. It's the stench of a low on-base percentage that gets me every time. His OBP last season was 0.291. His career OBP is 0.312. Those are some rotten numbers. I don't catch a whiff of the sweet smell of 27 home runs and decent defense from the shortstop position.
On the road Greene is undeniably a good, though flawed, player. On the road he's a 0.800 OPS shortstop. Man, you sure don't turn up your nose at that kind of player. Okay, so his road on-base percentage is a little low, at 0.320 most years. You can live with that given all the power he brings. Heck, Greene's road stats are similar to the road stats of young Rockie phenom Troy Tulowitzki, save for the small fact that Greene's slugging is 100 points higher!
It's at home that Greene delivers the true stink-bomb. Okay, most everyone knows that Petco is a tough place to hit. Every Padre regular with the exception of Milton Bradley took a big hit in offensive stats at Petco last year. ( Bradley had close to a 1.000 Petco OPS in a mere 23 games there last year. ) The great Adrian Gonzalez becomes a 0.760 OPSing weakling in Petco. So it happens. But at least all these other players are able to maintain respectable home on-base percentages. They all get on base about 1 out of 3 times at home. But not Greene. He only gets on base 1 out of 4 times at Petco. His home on-base percentage was a putrid 0.258 last year. Why? Is it the strikeouts? He had 77 at home last year. Lucky sevens, for opposition pitchers. He only had 51 on the road. Why would players strike out more at Petco Park, anyway, as they do as a group? Is it just because the park is bigger? Something about the San Diego air? The mound? I don't get it.
The Padres signed Greene to a two year deal this off-season to avoid arbitration. That's probably a good thing, since arbitrators are unlikely to care about things like on-base percentage and instead focus on counting stats like home runs. On the other hand, arbitrators are unlikely to care about park-factors as well. Nevertheless, he's signed, and now the Padres should try to trade him. So much of Greene's value is sucked away by Petco Park. He's not good enough defensively to make up for being so bad at home. He's no Adam Everett with the glove. Last year by hardballtimes.com's zone rating (RZR) Greene was slightly above average; in previous years he was about average.
But the Padres don't really have any young shortstop who is close to being ready to take over for Greene if they traded him, so they'd have to get a shortstop back in a trade. It would be hard for them to find a good fit, I think. Teams don't much go for challenge trades anymore, where you swap guys of the same position for each other. It's a pity for the Padres, since they aren't getting full value from Greene's talents. Greene would be great with the Phillies, for example, his talents maximized there. Not that the Phillies need a shortstop!
Kevin Kouzmanoff
The Padre third basemen may end up as a 0.850 OPS guy on the road. That's good. He has power, but as is usual Petco Park kills his home home run total. But even on the road his on-base percentage is a middling 0.330. Between him and Greene a lot of outs are being used up. That's not something to dismiss lightly --- outs are precious, in limited supply. You only get 27 per regulation game, and here are two of the Padres better offensive players sucking them down. Kouzmanoff was average with the glove last year based on the RZR stat from hardballtimes.com.
Kouz finished aces last year, with a 1.031 OPS in September. He hit 0.380 that month --- he's not going to come close to that over a full season, so this month should probably be viewed as just a lucky hot stretch. If, however, his dip in strikeout rate in September was real, then maybe some of that apparent improvement is also real. So how good is he going to be? Who knows? How good will Matt Kemp or James Loney of the Dodgers be, or Justin Upton of the Snakes be? The big difference between those players and Kouzmanoff is that Kouz is already 26. He's not likely to get a whole lot better, though a small improvement in last year's stats seems indicated here. It is, however, a good bet that the Padres will get more production out of third base than the Dodgers, especially if LaRoche is stuck behind Garciaparra by veteran loving Joe Torre.
Tadahito Iguchi
He signed a one-year deal with the Padres this offseason to play second base. Given how awful Marcus Giles was last year, he almost has to be an upgrade. But he may not be. His road OPS over the past three years is just 0.709. His overall batting line doesn't look too bad, because of hitter-friendly home parks in southside Chicago and Philadelphia, but once he's forced to take half his hacks at Petco this year his overall line may end up closer to the cumulative 0.661 OPS Padres second basemen put up last year.
Iguchi isn't a glove wizard either. His American League RZR had been consistently near the bottom the last few years. Iguchi isn't awful, I guess. He'll steal a few bases, draw some walks, hit a few home runs, but when you put it all together he's a below average second baseman, and at 33 he's not likely to get any better. The Padres had a great opportunity to really improve their second-base production from last year and it looks to me like they blew it. Of course it's easier to say "let's get a better second baseman" and harder to actually do it. This is a position they might look to upgrade at the trade deadline, but more likely they'll be more pre-occpupied with getting a decent outfielder onto the team at that point.
Adrian Gonzalez
On the road Gonzalez is a +0.900 OPS star. He's what the Dodgers hope Loney will become. It would be better for the Padres if he was more of a 0.400-0.500 guy than the 0.350-0.550 guy that he is: in other words, it would be better for the Padres if he was more of a high walk/good power guy than a medium walk/great power guy. So much of Gonzalez's great power is wasted in Petco ( 10 HR at home, 20 HR on the road ) and while his 0.347 on-base percentage is decent the Padres could really use a 0.400 OBP kind of guy to balance out those high power/high out guys on the left side of the infield. It's really kind of goofy and counter-productive that the strength of so many Padre players is home run power. This is just quibbling, though. Gonzalez is the Padres best offensive player by far.
Last year in 80 plate appearances Gonzelez had a 0.450 OPS against Dodger pitching, with just one home run. Probably just a one year fluke. In spite of getting nothing from Gonzalez the Padres won 10 of 18 from the Dodgers last year.
The Padres signed Tony Clark for some reason. He can only play first base, so does that mean he'll take at-bats away from Gonzalez?
Joshua David Bard and Michael Patrick Barrett
Barrett is a 31-year old catcher who had a 0.650 OPS last year after three straight +0.800 OPS years. I'm going with the pessimistic interpretation here and saying that Barrett's skills are decomposing. It's rarely wise to bet on a catcher older than 30. Bard isn't that much younger at 29, but he seems by far the better of the two and I think he'll eventually see about two thirds of the starts behind the plate. Bard actually had a higher on-base percentage than Adrian Gonzalez last year. He's a nice complementary player for the Padre lineup. Goodness knows they need to get something from their catcher given the lousy production they can look forward to from the outfield in 2008.
Scott Alexander Hairston
I guess he's the starting left fielder for the Padres in 2008. I'm looking at their roster, trying to see if there is another option. Paul McAnulty? He's even more of a AAAA fourth-outfielder type than Hairston is. At least both Hairston and McAnulty are 27. Maybe one of them will break out with a career year. More likely they'll hit 15 home runs combined, with an on-base percentage hovering around Khalil Greene territory. The Padres are going to miss Milton Bradley so much. Why didn't they try harder to resign him?
Brian Stephen Giles
I guess the plus side of him losing his power is that the Padres can't miss it at Petco. Now he did hit 11 home runs in the last two months of 2007 after only 2 in the previous four months, so maybe some injury healed ( unlikely, right? --- since when do injuries heal while playing regularly in the middle of the season? ) or maybe he "fixed" his swing. He's still a good on-base guy regardless of his power issues, which the Padres sorely need. But he's 37 and apparently on the very steep downslope of his career. It's no sure thing that the Padres will get anything like even 150 games out of him. They need help in the outfield.
James Patrick Edmonds
And Edmonds is not that help. He seems to be an even older 37 than Giles' 37. He was really wretched in 2007, after being not so great in 2006, after being very good in 2005, after being unbelievable in 2004. Here's the OPS progression from 2004 to 2007: 1.061 -- 0.918 -- 0.821 -- 0.728. He loses a shcoking 100 points a year, so this year he'll have an OPS of 0.631, give or take a few points. Don't laugh. Now that he's playing half his games in Petco, it could happen.
Edmonds no longer matches his defensive reputation either. His RZR the last two years has been in the bottom half of the National League.
There are rumors that the Padres might try to trade for Brewer outfielder Gabe Gross. Gross isn't much with the bat either, but given how unlikely it is for both Giles and Edmonds to stay healthy all year they just need more warm bodies. The Padres may also give prospects Headley and Antonelli a shot at left field. Sounds good, except that neither has played extensively above AA, and neither has even been an outfielder in the minor leagues!
Summary
The Padre offense is going to struggle in 2008, and it's going to be because of their outfielders. The Dodgers have a lot of question marks on their offense, but unlike the Padres they Dodgers have very young players likely to improve and relatively young players likely to bounce back from poor performances last year. The Padres have a lot of old, declining players. Gonzalez is great, Kouz should be a little better than last year, Greene is good on the road, Bard is solid, and that's about it. It's all about the pitching for the Padres, even more so than in past years. The Padres may yet finish better than the Dodgers, but I don't see their offense being good enough to win the NL West.
20 February 2008
All Notes Great and Trivial
Today, a rundown of some quotes from recent dodgers.com news stories.
Kuroda Cutter
"I heard in the States a fastball with movement away is better to have over here," said Kuroda. "I don't think I've perfected the location, but I was satisfied with the movement."
In Japan, Kuroda relied on a sinker thrown down and in to right-handed hitters, but many pitchers feel that Major League umpires are more likely to call strikes on pitches away than inside, one of the reasons for the recent popularity in the cut fastball.
I can't read this without thinking of the worst strike zone offender ever, the late Eric Gregg. He was at the height of his powers in the 1997 NLCS, when his ample strike zone helped Livan Hernandez strike out 15 to beat the Braves. I'll never forget that final "strike" to Fred McGriff, a pitch about a foot off the plate. One of the best things Bud Selig ever did was to not rehire Gregg after he resigned along with 21 other umpires in a negotiating ploy.
Strike zone discipline from umpires has become a lot better since then, but my observation is that we still see a lot more outside strikes than inside strikes called. The simplest explanation for this is that umpires set up over the inside shoulder of the catcher, meaning they can see the inside pitches a lot better.
However, the actual data paints a slightly different picture than what I think I'm seeing. This study done by John Walsh of hardballtimes.com last year shows a significant bias toward outside strikes to lefty batters, but no bias at all between inside and outside to righty batters. If this study is correct, then Kuroda's reasoning for learning the cutter is faulty, since the pitch he's trying to master is designed to cut outside for right-handed batters.
Russell Wear-down
Martin concedes he wore down in the second half, when he hit .275 after hitting .306 before the All-Star break.
Russell Martin's month-by-month OPS last year:
Apr: 0.863
May: 0.843
Jun: 0.807
Jul: 0.858
Aug: 0.943
Sep: 0.725
His best month was August, but his worst was September. If he wore down, it didn't show up in his hitting until September.
Another interesting Martin split from last year is that he was 16 of 19 in stolen bases before the all-star break, but only 5 of 11 after. I guess when you wear down, the legs are the first to go.
Lowe Averages
... Lowe is upbeat about the team's chances: "If everyone just has an average year, we've got a really good team," he said. "We have a lot of talent. We don't need a lot of career years to get over the hump."
I found this to be a deceptively provocative statement. Is this true, I wonder? Do the Dodgers make the playoffs if they have average years from everyone? But do we even know what an average year is supposed to be for most Dodgers? What's an average year for young players without even a full year of major league experience, such as Kemp and Loney? What's average from 40-year old Kent? Kuroda, who is coming to a whole new league? Schmidt, coming off of injury? A lot of average baselines have yet to be established or reset.
On reflection I've decided that the important thing is not that the Dodgers get average years from everyone, but that they get full healthy years from nearly everyone.
Lasorda's Lawn
The croquet field at Disney's Vero Beach Resort was renamed Lasorda Fielda in a Monday ceremony attended by the Hall of Fame manager, who will take over the Florida squad when Torre goes to China with the rest of the team next month.
I once got so mad playing croquet that slammed a mallet to the ground and broke it in half. I'd like to think Lasorda has done the same at least once in his life.
Kuroda Cutter
"I heard in the States a fastball with movement away is better to have over here," said Kuroda. "I don't think I've perfected the location, but I was satisfied with the movement."
In Japan, Kuroda relied on a sinker thrown down and in to right-handed hitters, but many pitchers feel that Major League umpires are more likely to call strikes on pitches away than inside, one of the reasons for the recent popularity in the cut fastball.
I can't read this without thinking of the worst strike zone offender ever, the late Eric Gregg. He was at the height of his powers in the 1997 NLCS, when his ample strike zone helped Livan Hernandez strike out 15 to beat the Braves. I'll never forget that final "strike" to Fred McGriff, a pitch about a foot off the plate. One of the best things Bud Selig ever did was to not rehire Gregg after he resigned along with 21 other umpires in a negotiating ploy.
Strike zone discipline from umpires has become a lot better since then, but my observation is that we still see a lot more outside strikes than inside strikes called. The simplest explanation for this is that umpires set up over the inside shoulder of the catcher, meaning they can see the inside pitches a lot better.
However, the actual data paints a slightly different picture than what I think I'm seeing. This study done by John Walsh of hardballtimes.com last year shows a significant bias toward outside strikes to lefty batters, but no bias at all between inside and outside to righty batters. If this study is correct, then Kuroda's reasoning for learning the cutter is faulty, since the pitch he's trying to master is designed to cut outside for right-handed batters.
Russell Wear-down
Martin concedes he wore down in the second half, when he hit .275 after hitting .306 before the All-Star break.
Russell Martin's month-by-month OPS last year:
Apr: 0.863
May: 0.843
Jun: 0.807
Jul: 0.858
Aug: 0.943
Sep: 0.725
His best month was August, but his worst was September. If he wore down, it didn't show up in his hitting until September.
Another interesting Martin split from last year is that he was 16 of 19 in stolen bases before the all-star break, but only 5 of 11 after. I guess when you wear down, the legs are the first to go.
Lowe Averages
... Lowe is upbeat about the team's chances: "If everyone just has an average year, we've got a really good team," he said. "We have a lot of talent. We don't need a lot of career years to get over the hump."
I found this to be a deceptively provocative statement. Is this true, I wonder? Do the Dodgers make the playoffs if they have average years from everyone? But do we even know what an average year is supposed to be for most Dodgers? What's an average year for young players without even a full year of major league experience, such as Kemp and Loney? What's average from 40-year old Kent? Kuroda, who is coming to a whole new league? Schmidt, coming off of injury? A lot of average baselines have yet to be established or reset.
On reflection I've decided that the important thing is not that the Dodgers get average years from everyone, but that they get full healthy years from nearly everyone.
Lasorda's Lawn
The croquet field at Disney's Vero Beach Resort was renamed Lasorda Fielda in a Monday ceremony attended by the Hall of Fame manager, who will take over the Florida squad when Torre goes to China with the rest of the team next month.
I once got so mad playing croquet that slammed a mallet to the ground and broke it in half. I'd like to think Lasorda has done the same at least once in his life.
19 February 2008
Juan Pierre Juan Pierre Juan Pierre
It just never lets up. A ceaseless beat of Pierre. It is a nightmare where I struggle to wake up. I can hear the my alarm clock shrieking, "PIERREPIERREPIERRE". Must make it stop. Finally I break through and wake up and stop the alarm, but it's still blaring. I unplug the clock, but it's still going. I throw it out the window, and still I can hear it, all around me. "PIERREPIERREPIERRE" Because I haven't really woke up. I was tricked by the nightmare into thinking I was awake, but the telltale shriek of the alarm has exposed the lie. Juan Pierre is a nightmare I never wake up from.
There is nothing surprising about this story from dodgers.com, except for how angry it makes me. The story is utterly predictable, and almost entirely without real content, and could probably be written about nearly any other player who was in some danger of losing some starting time, and yet I'm still angry about how clueless Juan Pierre is about how much he sucks. "Some people value what I do and some people don't," he says. The people who value what you do, Juan Pierre, are the same fools who list your team-leading 668 at-bats last year as some sort of accomplishment.
It's bad enough that Joe Torre may award Juan Pierre a starting job based on his veteranhood or becuase he's impressed by his raw totals of hits and stolen bases, but it's even worse if Juan Pierre makes threats to cause trouble if he isn't starting. I wish Andre Ethier would demand to either start or be traded. But Ethier could be traded, since he is younger, cheaper, and better than Pierre. I can't imagine the Dodgers being able to trade Pierre, unless they ate about 80% of his contract and took back essentially nothing.
I look forward to a regular season Dodger game that does not involve Juan Pierre in any way at all. A game in which he doesn't start, never enters as a defensive replacement, pinch hitter, or pinch runner, is never shown sitting in the dugout, and is never even referred to, neither him nor his blighted streak. One could argue that Juan Pierre as much as anyone else was the face of the Dodgers last season. He was always around; we never got a break from him. And you know what? He wasn't even as entertaining to watch as I had been hoping he would be. He may not have been as awful in the outfield as he looked at times, especially early in the year, but he was never fun to watch out there. Now Andruw Jones! There's a player who's fun to watch in the field. It was only fun watching Pierre bat if you enjoy watching a blindfolded little kid try to break open a pinata with a whiffle bat. And watching Pierre steal bases was never as fun as it should have been because I was always worried he'd be caught stealing and add yet more to his prodigious total of outs created. Let's not even mention his outfield throws. Last year, both analytically and aesthetically, Pierre was pain.
And now, I realize, I'm inflicting him on myself. I didn't have to write up a post, only my second this year, all about Juan Pierre. I didn't have to read that stupid spring training article about how he wants to start. Every player wants to start; it's hardly surprising, or news. Start me or trade me; yeah, there's a new line. I shouldn't fault Pierre for saying what almost any other player would say. I shouldn't even fault him for not realizing that he sucks. Lousy ballplayers very often think they are better than they really are.
But I'm a fan, and the thing about fans is they want to see the best players. So don't hold it against me that I rail against Pierre. That's why the drumbeat against Pierre goes on. That's why seeing him in the field feels like a nightmare. Andre Ethier is better than Juan Pierre in nearly every way. Ethier is better in the field, better at throwing, better at taking a walk, better at hitting home runs, better hitter period. Juan Pierre is faster than Ethier. Oh yes, and also older and paid more. That's all it takes, I fear, for the nightmare to continue. Do I need to bring Matt Kemp into this, by the way? It's still not out of the question that Pierre could steal playing time from Kemp, is it? Kemp is in danger at the first sign of a slump, I fear. That's the great advantage Pierre has --- it's hard to be seen as slumping when people list your number of at-bats and other raw batting totals as positive accomplishments. What are we, second graders? Is it so hard to divide?
Still, not everything is grim on the Pierre front. As I wrote a few months ago when Andruw Jones was signed, Juan Pierre has lost his cover. He's not benched yet, and he's not likely to just outright lose his starting job, but the possibility is out there. Even with a veteran-favoring manager, Pierre now has to truly fight for his job, and Pierre knows it, and he's getting his back up about it. Maybe, finally, the nightmare will end.
There is nothing surprising about this story from dodgers.com, except for how angry it makes me. The story is utterly predictable, and almost entirely without real content, and could probably be written about nearly any other player who was in some danger of losing some starting time, and yet I'm still angry about how clueless Juan Pierre is about how much he sucks. "Some people value what I do and some people don't," he says. The people who value what you do, Juan Pierre, are the same fools who list your team-leading 668 at-bats last year as some sort of accomplishment.
It's bad enough that Joe Torre may award Juan Pierre a starting job based on his veteranhood or becuase he's impressed by his raw totals of hits and stolen bases, but it's even worse if Juan Pierre makes threats to cause trouble if he isn't starting. I wish Andre Ethier would demand to either start or be traded. But Ethier could be traded, since he is younger, cheaper, and better than Pierre. I can't imagine the Dodgers being able to trade Pierre, unless they ate about 80% of his contract and took back essentially nothing.
I look forward to a regular season Dodger game that does not involve Juan Pierre in any way at all. A game in which he doesn't start, never enters as a defensive replacement, pinch hitter, or pinch runner, is never shown sitting in the dugout, and is never even referred to, neither him nor his blighted streak. One could argue that Juan Pierre as much as anyone else was the face of the Dodgers last season. He was always around; we never got a break from him. And you know what? He wasn't even as entertaining to watch as I had been hoping he would be. He may not have been as awful in the outfield as he looked at times, especially early in the year, but he was never fun to watch out there. Now Andruw Jones! There's a player who's fun to watch in the field. It was only fun watching Pierre bat if you enjoy watching a blindfolded little kid try to break open a pinata with a whiffle bat. And watching Pierre steal bases was never as fun as it should have been because I was always worried he'd be caught stealing and add yet more to his prodigious total of outs created. Let's not even mention his outfield throws. Last year, both analytically and aesthetically, Pierre was pain.
And now, I realize, I'm inflicting him on myself. I didn't have to write up a post, only my second this year, all about Juan Pierre. I didn't have to read that stupid spring training article about how he wants to start. Every player wants to start; it's hardly surprising, or news. Start me or trade me; yeah, there's a new line. I shouldn't fault Pierre for saying what almost any other player would say. I shouldn't even fault him for not realizing that he sucks. Lousy ballplayers very often think they are better than they really are.
But I'm a fan, and the thing about fans is they want to see the best players. So don't hold it against me that I rail against Pierre. That's why the drumbeat against Pierre goes on. That's why seeing him in the field feels like a nightmare. Andre Ethier is better than Juan Pierre in nearly every way. Ethier is better in the field, better at throwing, better at taking a walk, better at hitting home runs, better hitter period. Juan Pierre is faster than Ethier. Oh yes, and also older and paid more. That's all it takes, I fear, for the nightmare to continue. Do I need to bring Matt Kemp into this, by the way? It's still not out of the question that Pierre could steal playing time from Kemp, is it? Kemp is in danger at the first sign of a slump, I fear. That's the great advantage Pierre has --- it's hard to be seen as slumping when people list your number of at-bats and other raw batting totals as positive accomplishments. What are we, second graders? Is it so hard to divide?
Still, not everything is grim on the Pierre front. As I wrote a few months ago when Andruw Jones was signed, Juan Pierre has lost his cover. He's not benched yet, and he's not likely to just outright lose his starting job, but the possibility is out there. Even with a veteran-favoring manager, Pierre now has to truly fight for his job, and Pierre knows it, and he's getting his back up about it. Maybe, finally, the nightmare will end.
14 February 2008
Pitchers and Catchers and Bloggers Report
People get all excited about pitchers and catcher reporting, but what does it really mean? There are no games, no real news. We don't get to hear Vin Scully on the radio yet. It just means some puff pieces about how good Jason Schmidt's arm feels will start coming out. The Tomkos and Hendricksons of the world will claim to have turned things around with a new approach. Spring Training is actually quite a maddening time. Even when the games start, they don't count, and no one really plays to win. Not really.
Pitchers and Catchers reporting means that baseball is coming, I guess. It's not here, not yet. But it's close. For the first time in months I'm excited about baseball again. I found this offseason really brutal. I didn't trust Colletti; I was sure that Kemp or LaRoche or Kershaw would be traded for a bodybag full of expired reputation at any moment. And so at the end of it, I was exhausted and unable to write anything for months. It's my own damn fault --- I should have ignored all the rumors. But that's over now. Baseball is fun again. Martin and Saito are reporting TODAY! That is exciting, if one looks at it correctly. They're getting ready to thrill, laying down the careful preparations to excel in a month and a half. There are not games today --- except in our imaginations. Feel free to snicker at that. I did as I wrote it --- but it's also a little bit true, at least for me.
Spring Training is the time for stories about how players are going to turn things around, or make a new beginning, or enjoy their new team, or carry on their past excellence. Spring Training articles are a lot like a Barack Obama speech: heavy on the hope and change. Not too much like an Obama speech, though. I don't want to hear about Dodgers needing to reach across the field to work with Giants.
Spring Training is a time for fluff. So why fight it, I say? I will combine two of the great examples of fluff, predictions and top ten rankings, into the first annual Dodgerama Spring Training Spectacular Top Ten Rankings Featuring the Players and Coaches Most Likely To Be Featured in Spring Training Fluff.
1. Joe Torre
Hey Joe, what do you think of the Yankees?
Hey Joe, do you think you can finally finish the job and blow out Proctor's arm this year?
Hey Joe, what about the Yankees?
Hey Joe, what is is like to face your old team in Spring Training?
Hey Joe, are you going to show those young players their place?
2. Juan Pierre
I just think the wronged lunch-pail-everyday-hard-worker angle will be too hard to pass up. We know Pierre is cranky about how things went this offseason, and that should be good for a few tense quotes about how he's just trying to do his job everyday regardless of what the team has in store for him. Writers will talk about all the hits and stolen bases and runs he piled up. They'll ask him if he gets along with Andruw Jones. Pierre was the Dodger lightning rod last year, and given that this year he's lost centerfield, lost his stranglehold on playing every day, but not lost his crazy huge contract, he'll continue to be a lightning rod.
3. Andruw Jones
New players and players who need to bounce back are common features for ST stories. When you have a player who fill both roles, you have someone who's going to be in heavy Gurnick-rotation over at Dodgers.com.
4. Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar, you sucked last year. Can you make a comeback this year and keep young punk Andrew LaRoche away from your job? Nomar still has huge name recognition, which makes him an attractive target for spring fluff. And I'm sure there will be some references to Mia and the twins in these pieces, further upping the fluff factor. If Mia had given birth to triplets this winter Nomar would have come in at number 1 for sure.
5. Jason Schmidt
Breathless stories about how he's now throwing 10 miles per hour await. "Schmidt pitches T-ball practice" headlines will declare. Torre will say he looks good, "as good as Mike Mussina".
6. Matt Kemp
These stories can go either way. They might be about the newly humbled youngster who just wants to learn and contribute any way he can. "I'll sweep up Jeff Kent's sunflower seeds." Or they might be about the unrepentant brash youngster who vows to do it his way and take the league by storm. "I'll hit home runs so far they break Jeff Kent's motorcycle in the parking lot." Both angles are spring training gold.
7. Hiroki Kuroda
New guy. Big expectations. Cultural awkwardness. Any story about Kuroda will heavily feature: his translator, Takashi Saito, a humorous incident involving trying to communicate with Russell Martin, and either his love or disgust for American food.
8. Russell Martin
How good can he become? What about the contract negotiations? Who is he dating now? How will he deal with no longer catching Hendrickson?
9. Jeff Kent
Jeff Kent is kind of like John McCain. He's a weird older guy with a reputation for "straight talk". Kent's remarks about steroids this off-season will only help his profile in ST stories.
10. Tommy Lasorda
You know he's going to mug his way into a few Spring Training stories. It's inevitable, especially with the final season at Vero Beach. In a way, Tommy Lasorda is perfect for Spring Training. All fluff and little substance. Ugh, what a depressing way to end the Spring Training top 10.
Pitchers and Catchers reporting means that baseball is coming, I guess. It's not here, not yet. But it's close. For the first time in months I'm excited about baseball again. I found this offseason really brutal. I didn't trust Colletti; I was sure that Kemp or LaRoche or Kershaw would be traded for a bodybag full of expired reputation at any moment. And so at the end of it, I was exhausted and unable to write anything for months. It's my own damn fault --- I should have ignored all the rumors. But that's over now. Baseball is fun again. Martin and Saito are reporting TODAY! That is exciting, if one looks at it correctly. They're getting ready to thrill, laying down the careful preparations to excel in a month and a half. There are not games today --- except in our imaginations. Feel free to snicker at that. I did as I wrote it --- but it's also a little bit true, at least for me.
Spring Training is the time for stories about how players are going to turn things around, or make a new beginning, or enjoy their new team, or carry on their past excellence. Spring Training articles are a lot like a Barack Obama speech: heavy on the hope and change. Not too much like an Obama speech, though. I don't want to hear about Dodgers needing to reach across the field to work with Giants.
Spring Training is a time for fluff. So why fight it, I say? I will combine two of the great examples of fluff, predictions and top ten rankings, into the first annual Dodgerama Spring Training Spectacular Top Ten Rankings Featuring the Players and Coaches Most Likely To Be Featured in Spring Training Fluff.
1. Joe Torre
Hey Joe, what do you think of the Yankees?
Hey Joe, do you think you can finally finish the job and blow out Proctor's arm this year?
Hey Joe, what about the Yankees?
Hey Joe, what is is like to face your old team in Spring Training?
Hey Joe, are you going to show those young players their place?
2. Juan Pierre
I just think the wronged lunch-pail-everyday-hard-worker angle will be too hard to pass up. We know Pierre is cranky about how things went this offseason, and that should be good for a few tense quotes about how he's just trying to do his job everyday regardless of what the team has in store for him. Writers will talk about all the hits and stolen bases and runs he piled up. They'll ask him if he gets along with Andruw Jones. Pierre was the Dodger lightning rod last year, and given that this year he's lost centerfield, lost his stranglehold on playing every day, but not lost his crazy huge contract, he'll continue to be a lightning rod.
3. Andruw Jones
New players and players who need to bounce back are common features for ST stories. When you have a player who fill both roles, you have someone who's going to be in heavy Gurnick-rotation over at Dodgers.com.
4. Nomar Garciaparra
Nomar, you sucked last year. Can you make a comeback this year and keep young punk Andrew LaRoche away from your job? Nomar still has huge name recognition, which makes him an attractive target for spring fluff. And I'm sure there will be some references to Mia and the twins in these pieces, further upping the fluff factor. If Mia had given birth to triplets this winter Nomar would have come in at number 1 for sure.
5. Jason Schmidt
Breathless stories about how he's now throwing 10 miles per hour await. "Schmidt pitches T-ball practice" headlines will declare. Torre will say he looks good, "as good as Mike Mussina".
6. Matt Kemp
These stories can go either way. They might be about the newly humbled youngster who just wants to learn and contribute any way he can. "I'll sweep up Jeff Kent's sunflower seeds." Or they might be about the unrepentant brash youngster who vows to do it his way and take the league by storm. "I'll hit home runs so far they break Jeff Kent's motorcycle in the parking lot." Both angles are spring training gold.
7. Hiroki Kuroda
New guy. Big expectations. Cultural awkwardness. Any story about Kuroda will heavily feature: his translator, Takashi Saito, a humorous incident involving trying to communicate with Russell Martin, and either his love or disgust for American food.
8. Russell Martin
How good can he become? What about the contract negotiations? Who is he dating now? How will he deal with no longer catching Hendrickson?
9. Jeff Kent
Jeff Kent is kind of like John McCain. He's a weird older guy with a reputation for "straight talk". Kent's remarks about steroids this off-season will only help his profile in ST stories.
10. Tommy Lasorda
You know he's going to mug his way into a few Spring Training stories. It's inevitable, especially with the final season at Vero Beach. In a way, Tommy Lasorda is perfect for Spring Training. All fluff and little substance. Ugh, what a depressing way to end the Spring Training top 10.
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