01 April 2008
Bisonshit
I'm not really into using profanity on the blog, but nothing else will suffice for this, I fear. Juan Pierre starts in place of Matt Kemp. There are rational responses to this, I know. Sober perspectives to hold. It's just one game. But --- anger, disappointment, disbelief. That's all I got right now.
31 March 2008
Closing the Opening
After three innings I thought Penny was lucky to have held the Giants scoreless, but after six my opinion turned to the theory that he was doing just enough to get by against what he knew was an inferior team. The game never felt in doubt after the first inning, and Penny must have felt like he had a lot of rope to work with --- no need to try to overpower the inept Giants lineup. As Vinny noted most of the edge is gone now that Barry has left.
I take awhile to get back into mid-season form as a fan. I was surprised when Penny did not bunt in his third at-bat, when there were runners at first and third with one out. After Torre had put on the bunt the first two times Penny came up with a runner on first, I assumed it would happen again. When it didn't, I had the thought that Little surely would have bunted there, and maybe Torre was showing that he really wasn't a manager who loves the bunt. Nonsense, though. I eventually remembered that Penny is a very good hitting pitcher, and that Little occasionally had Penny swing away with a man on first and less than two outs last year. I think.
It has yet to develop how Torre will deploy the bunt in this go-round in the National League. With the lineup the Dodgers sent out Opening Day bunting should only occur when a pitcher is at the plate. It goes without saying that your corner players should be good enough hitters that they never bunt, and for the Dodgers the up-the-middle players all have enough power to make bunting inadvisable. Maybe he might have Furcal bunt sometime. DeWitt, possibly. I hope not. I really love the potential of this lineup. Loney is batting seventh! Can that be right?
So Pierre's consecutive games played streak is over. Stating the obvious and piling on are two of the great sins of blogging, but I'm going to say it anyway: it would really work out best for everyone if the Dodgers could trade Pierre away. Pierre really doesn't offer a whole lot off of the bench, other than a late game pinch runner, which is usually a wasteful use of one of the 25. Jason Repko would be far better in the fourth outfielder role.
I anticipated both Kent's homerun and Martin's double play. I am Nostradodgerama. I promise any other feelings I have that come true will be reported after the fact, and that I will conveniently forget the ones that don't come true. Here is the quatrain I wrote while in a trance that predicted the homerun:
The rainbow man will bow his head
His orb will go into the mountains
The rainbow man will meet his nemesis:
It will be the ancient noisy-bike dude
I take awhile to get back into mid-season form as a fan. I was surprised when Penny did not bunt in his third at-bat, when there were runners at first and third with one out. After Torre had put on the bunt the first two times Penny came up with a runner on first, I assumed it would happen again. When it didn't, I had the thought that Little surely would have bunted there, and maybe Torre was showing that he really wasn't a manager who loves the bunt. Nonsense, though. I eventually remembered that Penny is a very good hitting pitcher, and that Little occasionally had Penny swing away with a man on first and less than two outs last year. I think.
It has yet to develop how Torre will deploy the bunt in this go-round in the National League. With the lineup the Dodgers sent out Opening Day bunting should only occur when a pitcher is at the plate. It goes without saying that your corner players should be good enough hitters that they never bunt, and for the Dodgers the up-the-middle players all have enough power to make bunting inadvisable. Maybe he might have Furcal bunt sometime. DeWitt, possibly. I hope not. I really love the potential of this lineup. Loney is batting seventh! Can that be right?
So Pierre's consecutive games played streak is over. Stating the obvious and piling on are two of the great sins of blogging, but I'm going to say it anyway: it would really work out best for everyone if the Dodgers could trade Pierre away. Pierre really doesn't offer a whole lot off of the bench, other than a late game pinch runner, which is usually a wasteful use of one of the 25. Jason Repko would be far better in the fourth outfielder role.
I anticipated both Kent's homerun and Martin's double play. I am Nostradodgerama. I promise any other feelings I have that come true will be reported after the fact, and that I will conveniently forget the ones that don't come true. Here is the quatrain I wrote while in a trance that predicted the homerun:
The rainbow man will bow his head
His orb will go into the mountains
The rainbow man will meet his nemesis:
It will be the ancient noisy-bike dude
NL West Opening Day Contender Blender
In the following I take all the latest injury news and position battle resolutions of the Padres, Diamonbacks and Rockies and create a delicious, not-really nutritious summary smoothie. It's empty calories, I fear.
Padres
Mark Prior will not be ready to start the season in the rotation, in fact he was recently moved to the 60-day DL. Between Jason Schmidt and Prior, I wonder who will pitch first this season? I'm guessing Prior.
So Wolf and Germano are the back end of the Padre rotation. Randy Wolf was knocked around in his last exhibition start against the Angels, which might be an indication he's not quite ready yet. The Dodgers figure to get Germano to open their three game set in San Diego this weekend, followed by Peavy and Young.
To no one's surprise Jim Edmonds has already been hurt, and he will miss at least the first five games of the regular season. The young prospects Headly and Antonelli the Padres were sort of considering for the outfield weren't ready yet, so for now the outfield will be Giles, McAnulty and Hairston. As expected the Padre outfield is not an inspiring group.
Good reliever from last year Kevin Cameron was sent down to AAA to start the season, which really surprised me. It was an options-roster crunch, apparently.
Rockies
Jayson Nix won the second base job. It was kind of a farcical competition --- a six way battle for second base in which each contestant got about 50 spring training plate appearances. I think the fix was in for Nix to win among the six all along, unless he really fell on his face. To be fair he did have the best hitting stats among the six, for what that is worth, and he did seem to be the best choice all along anyway. I still don't think the Rockies will get much out of Nix.
Mark Redman and Franklin Morales won the two back-end jobs in the Rockie rotation. Morales might do well, but on balance this looks like a weakness for the Rockies. Then again, the Dodgers are one injury away from having Loaiza and Park be the back end of their rotation, which might be even worse. At least the Dodgers also have Kuo and Kershaw in the mix as well.
Diamondbacks
A few hours after my preview of the Snakes pitchers the news broke that Doug Davis has thyroid cancer. Now I feel really bad about saying he might not do well this year! The plan is for him to make his first two starts of the regular season, the second of these against the Dodgers, and then he'll have the surgery. He's expected to be out 4 to 6 weeks after the surgery. I don't know how the timing of the surgery was decided, but purely from a baseball perspective it sort of works out for the Snakes, because Randy Johnson should be ready to slot back into the rotation by the time Davis has his surgery. It looks like Edgar Gonzalez will be the fifth starter for at least two months.
Other than Davis being diagnosed with cancer, nothing really major happened at the end of spring training in the NL West. The Dodgers really made the most news in the last week, with Ethier beating out Pierre, and Kent coming back a little early.
Padres
Mark Prior will not be ready to start the season in the rotation, in fact he was recently moved to the 60-day DL. Between Jason Schmidt and Prior, I wonder who will pitch first this season? I'm guessing Prior.
So Wolf and Germano are the back end of the Padre rotation. Randy Wolf was knocked around in his last exhibition start against the Angels, which might be an indication he's not quite ready yet. The Dodgers figure to get Germano to open their three game set in San Diego this weekend, followed by Peavy and Young.
To no one's surprise Jim Edmonds has already been hurt, and he will miss at least the first five games of the regular season. The young prospects Headly and Antonelli the Padres were sort of considering for the outfield weren't ready yet, so for now the outfield will be Giles, McAnulty and Hairston. As expected the Padre outfield is not an inspiring group.
Good reliever from last year Kevin Cameron was sent down to AAA to start the season, which really surprised me. It was an options-roster crunch, apparently.
Rockies
Jayson Nix won the second base job. It was kind of a farcical competition --- a six way battle for second base in which each contestant got about 50 spring training plate appearances. I think the fix was in for Nix to win among the six all along, unless he really fell on his face. To be fair he did have the best hitting stats among the six, for what that is worth, and he did seem to be the best choice all along anyway. I still don't think the Rockies will get much out of Nix.
Mark Redman and Franklin Morales won the two back-end jobs in the Rockie rotation. Morales might do well, but on balance this looks like a weakness for the Rockies. Then again, the Dodgers are one injury away from having Loaiza and Park be the back end of their rotation, which might be even worse. At least the Dodgers also have Kuo and Kershaw in the mix as well.
Diamondbacks
A few hours after my preview of the Snakes pitchers the news broke that Doug Davis has thyroid cancer. Now I feel really bad about saying he might not do well this year! The plan is for him to make his first two starts of the regular season, the second of these against the Dodgers, and then he'll have the surgery. He's expected to be out 4 to 6 weeks after the surgery. I don't know how the timing of the surgery was decided, but purely from a baseball perspective it sort of works out for the Snakes, because Randy Johnson should be ready to slot back into the rotation by the time Davis has his surgery. It looks like Edgar Gonzalez will be the fifth starter for at least two months.
Other than Davis being diagnosed with cancer, nothing really major happened at the end of spring training in the NL West. The Dodgers really made the most news in the last week, with Ethier beating out Pierre, and Kent coming back a little early.
30 March 2008
Irrationality Owed Us
Yes, it is irrational that Ethier wins the starting job over Pierre based on Spring Training Stats. If Ethier had instead been the one to hit below 0.200 and Pierre had hit over 0.300 then Ethier still would have been the better choice. Ethier is the better player, the better hitter, the better fielder, the better thrower, and less than 100 at-bats against rusty major league pitchers and AAA pitchers isn't going to prove or disprove that.
But you know what? Irrationality owed us. The signing of Pierre was irrational; the insistence that only he could play center field for 161 games last year was irrational. ( He came off the bench in one game. ) Ideally the Dodgers will make all their decisions based on rationality and clear thinking. But if they're going to be irrational about things, then damn it I want it to work out the right way sometimes. Today, it did. Pierre goes to the bench. It's the right decision. Sometimes throwing darts can pick the right stock.
Now both Ethier and Kemp have to hit. A man who awards a starting spot based on Spring Training may not hesitate to pull a starter after a three week slump. It's a long season. But it's good to start it out the right way, at least.
Things seem to be turning the Dodgers' way as the season opens. After a spring full of injuries and losses and some shaky performances, the Dodgers are ending on a high note. Billingsley has quieted the fears that he wasn't quite ready with his gem Friday night, though of course he does need to build up a little bit more stamina. Ethier is starting in left. ( Why not right field, I wonder? ) Kent has returned from injury after it appeared he might not be ready by opening day. I feel good about this team. I feel like they can win 100 games.
Irrational? Yes. I wouldn't have it any other way.
But you know what? Irrationality owed us. The signing of Pierre was irrational; the insistence that only he could play center field for 161 games last year was irrational. ( He came off the bench in one game. ) Ideally the Dodgers will make all their decisions based on rationality and clear thinking. But if they're going to be irrational about things, then damn it I want it to work out the right way sometimes. Today, it did. Pierre goes to the bench. It's the right decision. Sometimes throwing darts can pick the right stock.
Now both Ethier and Kemp have to hit. A man who awards a starting spot based on Spring Training may not hesitate to pull a starter after a three week slump. It's a long season. But it's good to start it out the right way, at least.
Things seem to be turning the Dodgers' way as the season opens. After a spring full of injuries and losses and some shaky performances, the Dodgers are ending on a high note. Billingsley has quieted the fears that he wasn't quite ready with his gem Friday night, though of course he does need to build up a little bit more stamina. Ethier is starting in left. ( Why not right field, I wonder? ) Kent has returned from injury after it appeared he might not be ready by opening day. I feel good about this team. I feel like they can win 100 games.
Irrational? Yes. I wouldn't have it any other way.
28 March 2008
Snakes Slingers Summary
Last time I had a look at the Snakes offense, which wasn't a team strength last year. This time I look at their pitching, which was a strength. This is the last of the NL West contending opponent previews here are Dodgerama --- be sure to check out the Rockies preview from last week and the Padres preview from two weeks ago.
Brandon Tyler Webb
2.84, 3.59, 3.54, 3.10, 3.01: these are the earned run averages of Brandon Webb in the first five years of his career.
3.44, 3.55, 4.34, 4.06, 3.34: these are the ground ball to fly ball ratios of Brandon Webb in the first five years of his career.
12, 17, 21, 15, 12: these are the number of home runs Webb has allowed in each of the first five years of his career.
12, 24, 30, 29, 20: these are the number of ground ball double plays Webb has induced in each of the first five years of his career.
As far as I can tell Webb has never had a serious injury at the big league level in five years.
Daniel John Haren
Haren isn't the extreme ground ball pitcher that Webb is, but he does have better control. And that's all I want to say about Haren. The subject of Webb and Haren being at the top of the Snakes rotation is very depressing one for Dodger fans, especially since it seems like Haren may be the guy who puts the Snakes over the top this year.
Douglas P Davis
I think the Snakes are going to get a 4.5 ERA from Davis this year. The last two years he's basically been a 200 inning, 100 walk, 150 strikeout pitcher, which is serviceable but nothing special. I guess it's possible Davis could recapture his form of 2004 and 2005, when he had the best years of his career with a strikeout to walk ratio of 2:1. If he could do that, the Snakes would have a fearsome rotation. I see no reason to think he will, though. In fact, I think it's more likely that instead of improving he just turns up ineffective this year. Davis is 32 and the trend over the last few seasons isn't good.
Micah Burton Owings
Owings is a much more likely candidate for improvement than Davis. He could end up with a 4.0 ERA, which would be a great number from the back of the rotation. Back when Davis and Owings were the 2 and 3 starters for the Snakes, their rotation didn't look so good. Yes, they won a division with that rotation, but regardless of whatever magic the Snakes were able to put together last year, be it bullpen voodoo or just plain luck, Davis and Owings aren't what you want in your second and third best starting pitchers, especially on a team that isn't so great offensively. But a rotation where Owings and Davis are the 4 and 5 can be very good indeed. Half of that change is getting Haren, and the other half will depend on Randy Johnson being healthy and effective.
You can't realistically expect to win more than half the games Davis and Owings pitch with the offense the Snakes have. So they have to try to win the division with the starters who are better than those two. If that's just Webb, that's going to be pretty hard, as good as he is. If that's Webb and Haren and a healthy Johnson, well --- watch out for the Snakes.
Randall David Johnson
Randall isn't fully healthy yet, or at least he isn't ready to pitch in the regular season yet. But he's getting close. The Snakes will use Edgar Gonzalez in the rotation for the first two weeks, after which Johnson is expected to be ready. Gonzalez is one of those guys who is making the roster as much on the strength of his being out of options than on any excellence he has shown at the big league level.
Randall had 72 strikeouts with just 13 walks in 56.2 innings pitched last year. He can still bring it. I just wonder if he can hit triple digit innings this year. Johnson has never been the most durable pitcher around, with plenty of stints on the disabled list, though to be fair he's also had plenty of full, healthy seasons in his career. But he's going to be 44 this year. On his creaky old back may rest the playoff chances of the Snakes. Unless Webb and Haren are so good that the Snakes don't even need Johnson. We'll see.
'Pen
Valverde, the excellent closer of last season, is gone. But the superb supporting quartet of Cruz, Slaten, Lyon, and Pena are back. Slop up men Nippert and Medders are also back, unless they are cut. But these are back of the bullpen men. It was the front five of the 'pen that were so good for the Snakes last year, and though Qualls has replaced Valverde, the hopeful and naive assumption is that front five figures to be excellent again.
But as jaded baseball fans everywhere are aware, few relievers are a sure thing. Both Lyon and Cruz have multiple +6.0 ERA seasons in their work histories. Pena came up in 2006, was bad, then last year was good. Slaten was a rookie last year: good first year, kid. Now do it again. I'm guessing that two of these four will turn up snake eyes on the snakes and regress into Nippert-land. As for the new guy Qualls, I kind of think the Astros should have just kept him instead of trading him and change for Valverde. I wouldn't be surprised if Qualls is better this year than Valverde, who as recently as 2006 had a 5.84 ERA.
I don't think the Snakes are going to have as good a 'pen this year as last year. This means that the starters have to be much better than last year, which is likely. It also means that the Snakes probably can't depend on having a winning record if they're outscored again.
Summary
As much as I detest the Snakes I guess I'm picking them to finish in first place. This is a team that figures to have a better offense and starting rotation than last year, when they finished first. I think the Dodgers have more potential than the Snakes, but until I see the team run out the strongest lineup they can consistently, and stay mostly healthy, I'm picking the Snakes.
For the record, if I put on my optimistic fan hat I think the Dodgers will win 95 games and take first place.
So here is my projected standings for the NL West:
Snakes --- 90-72
Dodgers --- 89-73
Rockies --- 88-74
Padres --- 82-80
Giants --- 11-150*
*One Giants game is rained out and not made up.
Brandon Tyler Webb
2.84, 3.59, 3.54, 3.10, 3.01: these are the earned run averages of Brandon Webb in the first five years of his career.
3.44, 3.55, 4.34, 4.06, 3.34: these are the ground ball to fly ball ratios of Brandon Webb in the first five years of his career.
12, 17, 21, 15, 12: these are the number of home runs Webb has allowed in each of the first five years of his career.
12, 24, 30, 29, 20: these are the number of ground ball double plays Webb has induced in each of the first five years of his career.
As far as I can tell Webb has never had a serious injury at the big league level in five years.
Daniel John Haren
Haren isn't the extreme ground ball pitcher that Webb is, but he does have better control. And that's all I want to say about Haren. The subject of Webb and Haren being at the top of the Snakes rotation is very depressing one for Dodger fans, especially since it seems like Haren may be the guy who puts the Snakes over the top this year.
Douglas P Davis
I think the Snakes are going to get a 4.5 ERA from Davis this year. The last two years he's basically been a 200 inning, 100 walk, 150 strikeout pitcher, which is serviceable but nothing special. I guess it's possible Davis could recapture his form of 2004 and 2005, when he had the best years of his career with a strikeout to walk ratio of 2:1. If he could do that, the Snakes would have a fearsome rotation. I see no reason to think he will, though. In fact, I think it's more likely that instead of improving he just turns up ineffective this year. Davis is 32 and the trend over the last few seasons isn't good.
Micah Burton Owings
Owings is a much more likely candidate for improvement than Davis. He could end up with a 4.0 ERA, which would be a great number from the back of the rotation. Back when Davis and Owings were the 2 and 3 starters for the Snakes, their rotation didn't look so good. Yes, they won a division with that rotation, but regardless of whatever magic the Snakes were able to put together last year, be it bullpen voodoo or just plain luck, Davis and Owings aren't what you want in your second and third best starting pitchers, especially on a team that isn't so great offensively. But a rotation where Owings and Davis are the 4 and 5 can be very good indeed. Half of that change is getting Haren, and the other half will depend on Randy Johnson being healthy and effective.
You can't realistically expect to win more than half the games Davis and Owings pitch with the offense the Snakes have. So they have to try to win the division with the starters who are better than those two. If that's just Webb, that's going to be pretty hard, as good as he is. If that's Webb and Haren and a healthy Johnson, well --- watch out for the Snakes.
Randall David Johnson
Randall isn't fully healthy yet, or at least he isn't ready to pitch in the regular season yet. But he's getting close. The Snakes will use Edgar Gonzalez in the rotation for the first two weeks, after which Johnson is expected to be ready. Gonzalez is one of those guys who is making the roster as much on the strength of his being out of options than on any excellence he has shown at the big league level.
Randall had 72 strikeouts with just 13 walks in 56.2 innings pitched last year. He can still bring it. I just wonder if he can hit triple digit innings this year. Johnson has never been the most durable pitcher around, with plenty of stints on the disabled list, though to be fair he's also had plenty of full, healthy seasons in his career. But he's going to be 44 this year. On his creaky old back may rest the playoff chances of the Snakes. Unless Webb and Haren are so good that the Snakes don't even need Johnson. We'll see.
'Pen
Valverde, the excellent closer of last season, is gone. But the superb supporting quartet of Cruz, Slaten, Lyon, and Pena are back. Slop up men Nippert and Medders are also back, unless they are cut. But these are back of the bullpen men. It was the front five of the 'pen that were so good for the Snakes last year, and though Qualls has replaced Valverde, the hopeful and naive assumption is that front five figures to be excellent again.
But as jaded baseball fans everywhere are aware, few relievers are a sure thing. Both Lyon and Cruz have multiple +6.0 ERA seasons in their work histories. Pena came up in 2006, was bad, then last year was good. Slaten was a rookie last year: good first year, kid. Now do it again. I'm guessing that two of these four will turn up snake eyes on the snakes and regress into Nippert-land. As for the new guy Qualls, I kind of think the Astros should have just kept him instead of trading him and change for Valverde. I wouldn't be surprised if Qualls is better this year than Valverde, who as recently as 2006 had a 5.84 ERA.
I don't think the Snakes are going to have as good a 'pen this year as last year. This means that the starters have to be much better than last year, which is likely. It also means that the Snakes probably can't depend on having a winning record if they're outscored again.
Summary
As much as I detest the Snakes I guess I'm picking them to finish in first place. This is a team that figures to have a better offense and starting rotation than last year, when they finished first. I think the Dodgers have more potential than the Snakes, but until I see the team run out the strongest lineup they can consistently, and stay mostly healthy, I'm picking the Snakes.
For the record, if I put on my optimistic fan hat I think the Dodgers will win 95 games and take first place.
So here is my projected standings for the NL West:
Snakes --- 90-72
Dodgers --- 89-73
Rockies --- 88-74
Padres --- 82-80
Giants --- 11-150*
*One Giants game is rained out and not made up.
26 March 2008
Snakes Swingers Summary
Mark Andrew Reynolds
Last year Reynolds struck out in 129 of his 414 plate appearances, almost a third of his times at the plate. In spite of this Reynolds had a 0.843 OPS last year, which is a very nice number for a rookie third baseman. I wonder if he can sustain a OPS above 0.800 long term if he strikes out a third of the time, though. Last year his batting average on balls in play was about 0.378, a high figure unsupported by his line drive percentage of 20%. He needed every bit of his apparently lucky BABIP, because all those strikeouts took his real batting average down to 0.279. If his BABIP had been closer to a level normal to his line drive rate, say 0.320, then his real batting average would have been 0.243. So he either needs to keep getting lucky with his hits falling ( at which point it might become clear that maybe it wasn't luck, but some mysterious skill at directing ground balls and fly balls into holes ) or he needs to cut down on his strikeouts. The latter is a real possibility, as Reynolds is still a young player.
Aside from slugging pitcher Micah Owings, Reynolds had the highest OPS of any player on the Snakes last year. That's right, a figure of 0.843 was good for best on the Snakes. A number put up by a strikeout prone rookie in a hitter park. Make no mistake, the Snakes offense was bad last season. I'm not saying the team was bad: they won a lot of games. The pitching was great. But the offense was sub-average, and absolutely awful when looking at on-base percentage. And it does need to get better, I think, for the Snakes to finish ahead of the other three contenders in the NL West this year. The good news for them is that they are loaded with young players bound to improve, so it could happen. I have a suspicion, though, that Reynolds may improve the least of the young players.
Reynolds appears to be average at best with the glove, according to the hardballtimes.com RZR stat. He was not known as a good glove man in the minor leagues, so he may yet prove to be below average.
Christopher Brandon Young
Young finished fourth in the NL rookie of the year voting last year on the strength of 34 home runs and some fine defense in center field. For a rookie he had a good year, but just as a major league center fielder he had at best an average year. It's the usual story for a lot of young players: too many strikeouts, not enough walks. His on base percentage was below 0.300. The 34 home runs are nice but you can't use up so many outs!
Young seems to be the complete package as a player. He's fast and strong, a real 40-40 threat in the future. But he also made exactly as many outs at the plate as Juan Pierre did last year ( 494 ), while playing in 14 fewer games. If Young starts to play at the level everyone thinks he is capable of the Snakes may be hard to beat this year. But it hasn't happened yet. It takes more than home runs to be an above average major league player, even if you're a good defensive center fielder.
Stephen Oris Drew
Drew had an OPS+ of 72 last year. That's well below average. Even for a shortstop that's pretty crummy. And speaking of crummy, that's what Drew's defense was like last year. He barely edges ahead of Hanley Ramirez for the bottom spot in hardballtimes.com RZR list for qualifying shortstops in the National League. The thing is, if you're going to field as bad as Hanley Ramirez, you'd also better hit as well as Hanley, and Drew doesn't. Not even close.
Drew is still young. There is still time. But maybe he's just not that good? Maybe he could never readjust to the pitchers once they adjusted to him after his initial success in 2006. His line drive percentage was 16.5% last year, after being 23.8% in 2006, and without great power or great contact skills and plate discipline that's just not going to get it done. Chris Young is a future star who is currently an average player. Stephen Drew is supposed to be a future star, but at this point I think the Snakes would settle on him becoming just a solid average shortstop. The Snakes, like the Dodgers, have a lot of question marks in their lineup.
Justin Irvin Upton
Forget about his numbers in two months of big league play last year. There's nothing there worth looking at. Upton is going to be great someday, most likely. I don't think he'll be great this year, though. He might be good, or he might be average, or he might struggle as he did last year. He'll only be 20 this season. Can't expect too much from him, right?
Upton is one of four Snakes, along with Young, Drew, and Reynolds, who is almost impossible to predict for 2008. These are all young players, and overall the Snakes should get more from these four this year than they got last year. But how much more? This is part of what makes predicting the Snakes so hard this year.
Eric James Byrnes
On his Baseball Reference page his nicknames are listed as "Crash Test Dummy" and "Pigpen". So he's either filthy or destined to hurt himself against an outfield wall like Repko or Kemp.
Byrnes is the kind of player I imagine Andre Ethier becoming in a few years. Like Byrnes, Ethier is a great defensive outfielder. Ethier seems headed to becoming a decent power and walks guy, with solid but not spectacular offensive numbers. Byrnes is already that player. Byrnes isn't a star, but he is a good solid corner outfielder, and in a few years he might be the worst of the Snakes outfielders next to Young and Upton. That's a scary thought.
We can only hope that Ethier ends up being the worst starting outfielder for the Dodgers this year. For that to happen, Kemp has to fulfill his early promise, Jones has to really bounce back, and Pierre has to spend a lot of time scowling in the dugout because of his lack of playing time.
Christopher Ryan Snyder
Snyder puts up fine offensive numbers for a catcher. He's no Russell Martin, but so few are.
Conor S. Jackson
Jackson lacks the power you want from a first baseman, but he makes up for it in giving the Snakes something they desperately need: a player who gets on base often. Jackson has been a partial platoon player the last few years, since he doesn't hit right handed pitchers that well. Last year Tony Clark took a lot of those at bats. But this year it appears that Jackson is going to get most of the at bats at first base to himself, at least while Chad Tracy is hurt. Indeed, the sponsor of Jackson's B-Ref page has given Jackson the motto of "600 PA in '08 or bust!"
Jackson isn't going to make the difference for the Snakes this year. He's going to be solid, but the days of him being projected as a future star seem to be over.
Orlando Thill Hudson
Here is another solid regular on the Snakes. He had the best year of his career last year, when he had a scorching hot first half and made the all-star team. He's probably not going to do as well this year.
Hudson is yet another Snakes infielder whose defense appear to be at best average, going by RZR. Obviously Webb was still an effective pitcher last year with this group behind him, but I wonder how many outs he's losing to them.
Chad Tracy
When will Tracy come back? How good will he be? Where will he play? How often will he play? None of these questions have firm answers right now.
His goal was to return from microfracture surgery to his right knee by opening day, but now it appears the earliest time he could return is mid-April. Bob Melvin hasn't said where or how often Tracy will play once he does come back.
What is certain is that Tracy gives the Snakes some depth once he returns from injury, some insurance in case Reynolds turns out to be a damp squib in 2008 because of his strikeout problem. I guess it's a good problem to have.
Summary
At this moment the Snakes are half a team of solid, unspectacular regulars, and half a team of high-potential high-risk prospects. Byrnes, Snyder, Jackson and Hudson are all fine players, none of whom will sink an offense, but none of whom will lift up an offense very high either. Reynolds was the best of the high-potential players last year, but he may also be the highest risk. Young and Upton will be very good offensive players, but maybe not this year. Drew is just trying to be average. The Snakes big weakness on offense last year was on-base percentage: they were last in the National League, second to last in the Major Leagues. Having fewer strikeouts and more walks from the young players would help a lot. I think the young players will improve enough this year to give the Snakes an average offense this year. If their pitching is as good as it was last year, then this could be enough to win the NL West again. I'll have a look at their pitchers in the next entry.
Last year Reynolds struck out in 129 of his 414 plate appearances, almost a third of his times at the plate. In spite of this Reynolds had a 0.843 OPS last year, which is a very nice number for a rookie third baseman. I wonder if he can sustain a OPS above 0.800 long term if he strikes out a third of the time, though. Last year his batting average on balls in play was about 0.378, a high figure unsupported by his line drive percentage of 20%. He needed every bit of his apparently lucky BABIP, because all those strikeouts took his real batting average down to 0.279. If his BABIP had been closer to a level normal to his line drive rate, say 0.320, then his real batting average would have been 0.243. So he either needs to keep getting lucky with his hits falling ( at which point it might become clear that maybe it wasn't luck, but some mysterious skill at directing ground balls and fly balls into holes ) or he needs to cut down on his strikeouts. The latter is a real possibility, as Reynolds is still a young player.
Aside from slugging pitcher Micah Owings, Reynolds had the highest OPS of any player on the Snakes last year. That's right, a figure of 0.843 was good for best on the Snakes. A number put up by a strikeout prone rookie in a hitter park. Make no mistake, the Snakes offense was bad last season. I'm not saying the team was bad: they won a lot of games. The pitching was great. But the offense was sub-average, and absolutely awful when looking at on-base percentage. And it does need to get better, I think, for the Snakes to finish ahead of the other three contenders in the NL West this year. The good news for them is that they are loaded with young players bound to improve, so it could happen. I have a suspicion, though, that Reynolds may improve the least of the young players.
Reynolds appears to be average at best with the glove, according to the hardballtimes.com RZR stat. He was not known as a good glove man in the minor leagues, so he may yet prove to be below average.
Christopher Brandon Young
Young finished fourth in the NL rookie of the year voting last year on the strength of 34 home runs and some fine defense in center field. For a rookie he had a good year, but just as a major league center fielder he had at best an average year. It's the usual story for a lot of young players: too many strikeouts, not enough walks. His on base percentage was below 0.300. The 34 home runs are nice but you can't use up so many outs!
Young seems to be the complete package as a player. He's fast and strong, a real 40-40 threat in the future. But he also made exactly as many outs at the plate as Juan Pierre did last year ( 494 ), while playing in 14 fewer games. If Young starts to play at the level everyone thinks he is capable of the Snakes may be hard to beat this year. But it hasn't happened yet. It takes more than home runs to be an above average major league player, even if you're a good defensive center fielder.
Stephen Oris Drew
Drew had an OPS+ of 72 last year. That's well below average. Even for a shortstop that's pretty crummy. And speaking of crummy, that's what Drew's defense was like last year. He barely edges ahead of Hanley Ramirez for the bottom spot in hardballtimes.com RZR list for qualifying shortstops in the National League. The thing is, if you're going to field as bad as Hanley Ramirez, you'd also better hit as well as Hanley, and Drew doesn't. Not even close.
Drew is still young. There is still time. But maybe he's just not that good? Maybe he could never readjust to the pitchers once they adjusted to him after his initial success in 2006. His line drive percentage was 16.5% last year, after being 23.8% in 2006, and without great power or great contact skills and plate discipline that's just not going to get it done. Chris Young is a future star who is currently an average player. Stephen Drew is supposed to be a future star, but at this point I think the Snakes would settle on him becoming just a solid average shortstop. The Snakes, like the Dodgers, have a lot of question marks in their lineup.
Justin Irvin Upton
Forget about his numbers in two months of big league play last year. There's nothing there worth looking at. Upton is going to be great someday, most likely. I don't think he'll be great this year, though. He might be good, or he might be average, or he might struggle as he did last year. He'll only be 20 this season. Can't expect too much from him, right?
Upton is one of four Snakes, along with Young, Drew, and Reynolds, who is almost impossible to predict for 2008. These are all young players, and overall the Snakes should get more from these four this year than they got last year. But how much more? This is part of what makes predicting the Snakes so hard this year.
Eric James Byrnes
On his Baseball Reference page his nicknames are listed as "Crash Test Dummy" and "Pigpen". So he's either filthy or destined to hurt himself against an outfield wall like Repko or Kemp.
Byrnes is the kind of player I imagine Andre Ethier becoming in a few years. Like Byrnes, Ethier is a great defensive outfielder. Ethier seems headed to becoming a decent power and walks guy, with solid but not spectacular offensive numbers. Byrnes is already that player. Byrnes isn't a star, but he is a good solid corner outfielder, and in a few years he might be the worst of the Snakes outfielders next to Young and Upton. That's a scary thought.
We can only hope that Ethier ends up being the worst starting outfielder for the Dodgers this year. For that to happen, Kemp has to fulfill his early promise, Jones has to really bounce back, and Pierre has to spend a lot of time scowling in the dugout because of his lack of playing time.
Christopher Ryan Snyder
Snyder puts up fine offensive numbers for a catcher. He's no Russell Martin, but so few are.
Conor S. Jackson
Jackson lacks the power you want from a first baseman, but he makes up for it in giving the Snakes something they desperately need: a player who gets on base often. Jackson has been a partial platoon player the last few years, since he doesn't hit right handed pitchers that well. Last year Tony Clark took a lot of those at bats. But this year it appears that Jackson is going to get most of the at bats at first base to himself, at least while Chad Tracy is hurt. Indeed, the sponsor of Jackson's B-Ref page has given Jackson the motto of "600 PA in '08 or bust!"
Jackson isn't going to make the difference for the Snakes this year. He's going to be solid, but the days of him being projected as a future star seem to be over.
Orlando Thill Hudson
Here is another solid regular on the Snakes. He had the best year of his career last year, when he had a scorching hot first half and made the all-star team. He's probably not going to do as well this year.
Hudson is yet another Snakes infielder whose defense appear to be at best average, going by RZR. Obviously Webb was still an effective pitcher last year with this group behind him, but I wonder how many outs he's losing to them.
Chad Tracy
When will Tracy come back? How good will he be? Where will he play? How often will he play? None of these questions have firm answers right now.
His goal was to return from microfracture surgery to his right knee by opening day, but now it appears the earliest time he could return is mid-April. Bob Melvin hasn't said where or how often Tracy will play once he does come back.
What is certain is that Tracy gives the Snakes some depth once he returns from injury, some insurance in case Reynolds turns out to be a damp squib in 2008 because of his strikeout problem. I guess it's a good problem to have.
Summary
At this moment the Snakes are half a team of solid, unspectacular regulars, and half a team of high-potential high-risk prospects. Byrnes, Snyder, Jackson and Hudson are all fine players, none of whom will sink an offense, but none of whom will lift up an offense very high either. Reynolds was the best of the high-potential players last year, but he may also be the highest risk. Young and Upton will be very good offensive players, but maybe not this year. Drew is just trying to be average. The Snakes big weakness on offense last year was on-base percentage: they were last in the National League, second to last in the Major Leagues. Having fewer strikeouts and more walks from the young players would help a lot. I think the young players will improve enough this year to give the Snakes an average offense this year. If their pitching is as good as it was last year, then this could be enough to win the NL West again. I'll have a look at their pitchers in the next entry.
19 March 2008
Rockies Rotation & Relievers Review
Jeffrey William Francis
Over the last three years, Francis has a 4.86 ERA on the road, and a 4.43 ERA at home. In general pitchers tend to do slightly better at home, but his home park is Coors field! It's weird, no?
Francis took a huge leap forward last year and became the ace of the Rockies staff. His ERA was actually slightly higher in 2007 than in 2006, but his strikeout rate improved dramatically and his walk rate improved slightly in 2007. Oh, and his win-loss record improved as well, from 13-11 to 17-9. Only one other Rocky pitcher won 10 games last year ( Fogg ), even though the team won 90 on the season. Francis was the rock of the rotation all year. Francis' 17 wins ties the Rockies record for wins in a season. Pedro Astacio also won 17 in 1999, and Kevin Ritz won 17 in 1996.
Aaron Lane Cook
Cook has never had a season strikeout rate per nine innings above 4 in his career. That's really not good. And yet he hangs in there, and has actually put together some really fine years. Well, one fine year, in 2006, and several other decent but injury shortened years. He missed most of the last two month of the 2007 regular season. The Rockies have signed him to a 3 year, 30 million dollar contract, so they clearly do believe in him. And they should, because they aren't likely to get anyone better for that money. But there are two nagging questions attached to Cook.
First, will his poor strikeout rate really nail him one of these years? Unlike Francis, Cook is much worse at home, which isn't too surprising since you don't want to be giving up a lot of balls in play in the giant Coors Field outfield. Aha, but Cook doesn't have that problem very often, since his ground ball to fly ball ratio is so high, near 3 in recent years. This probably helps explain how he can keep up his low strikeout success.
Second, will Cook be healthy for an entire year ever again? He missed half of 2004 and half of 2005 because of blood clots in his lungs resulting from a rib pressing against a vein. This is a freak thing unlikely to occur again. Last year's injury was not to his arm but too his oblique muscle. When I first looked at his stats I thought it was almost a sure thing he'd break down sometime this year but now I'm not so sure.
Ubaldo Jimenez
He's a talented pitcher without much of a record in the major leagues so far. He could be great, or he could flounder due to too many walks. He had a great four start stretch in late August last year when he was striking out far more than he walked, but before and after that he mostly struggled with a near 1:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks. Which pitcher shows up in 2008? Probably both, of course. I think the Rockies are going to end up with a solid front three starters when it's all put together, though.
Jason Michael Hirsh
Too many walks, too many fly balls, too many home runs. He had a 4.81 ERA last year before he broke his leg --- well, strike that, he actually pitched for five innings on the broken leg! To know what his actual ERA was before he broke the leg, I'd have to come up with pre-broken-leg and post-broken-leg splits.
Even with all this the Rockies would probably be delighted to slot him into the fourth starter slot right now if they could. But Hirsh has been shut down for most of this spring with right shoulder soreness and he's not likely to be ready by opening day. None of the contenders for the fifth starter job have been very impressive yet, which is a bad sign for the Rockies since these guys are also now contending for the fourth starter job.
Fifth Starter Spot
Mark Redman, Josh Towers, Kip Wells, Franklin Morales. None of them have a good spring ERA, which maybe isn't the end of the world given that these are small sample sizes in spring, but these guys know they are fighting for a starting spot, so can't even one of them get a mix of major league and AAA hitters out?
Morales seems to have lost velocity on his fastball this spring, but unless it's a catastrophic loss of velocity I think he has to make the rotation. He's the only young guy with lots of room to improve in the bunch. The rest of them are all past their expiry date, Tomko types, or worse.
Relievers
The Rockies had a fine bullpen last year. Along with Francis the 'pen was the glue that held the pitching staff together through all the injuries to starters last year. The Rockies 'pen won 35 games last year, most in the National League. They very often gave the Rocky offense a chance at comeback wins.
The core of the Rocky 'pen is back this year. Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz, Matt Herges and Brian Fuentes all had an ERA below 3.1 last year, and all are back. Affeldt and Hawkins who pitched over 100 innings between them at an ERA of 3.5 are gone. The 'pen of the Rockies projects to be a strength again, but one never knows with bullpens. Can the Rockies really count on another sub 3 ERA from a guy like Herges? Given how shaky the back end of the rotation looks, the 'pen had better be good again.
Summary
Where do the Rockies fit into the NL West this year? The easy part is that they appear better than the Padres. Both the Padres and Rockies have back of rotation issues, but where the Padres appear slightly better in the 'pen and at the front of the rotation, the Rockies are much better on offense. Especially compare those outfields.
I think the Dodger pitching is going to be superior to the Rockies pitching this year. The Dodgers are at worst equal to the Rockies at the top of the rotation, and what the Dodgers have available for the fourth and fifth rotation spots overwhelms anything the Rockies have. This analysis changes dramatically if someone goes down with injury suddenly, of course. The bullpens are probably a wash.
The Dodger offense is potentially as good as the Rockies offense. It could be. Kent, Furcal, Martin, Kemp and Loney could match the production of the big four plus Tulo for the Rockies. Kemp and Loney each has to play to his potential ( and be given playing time ). Kent has to hold off a steep decline due to age. Furcal has to bounce back from injury. Only Martin appears as much a "sure thing" as any of the Rockies big four. There's also Andruw Jones --- but I really don't like what I'm seeing from him so far.
Even if the Dodger offense can't match the Rocky offense, I think the Dodger pitching makes them slightly better this year, especially since I'm now sold on Kershaw making a significant contribution sometime this year. So right now, among the four NL West contenders, I have the Padres last, with the Rockies a game or two behind the Dodgers. Where do the Snakes fit in? I'll figure that out in my next NL West preview entry.
Over the last three years, Francis has a 4.86 ERA on the road, and a 4.43 ERA at home. In general pitchers tend to do slightly better at home, but his home park is Coors field! It's weird, no?
Francis took a huge leap forward last year and became the ace of the Rockies staff. His ERA was actually slightly higher in 2007 than in 2006, but his strikeout rate improved dramatically and his walk rate improved slightly in 2007. Oh, and his win-loss record improved as well, from 13-11 to 17-9. Only one other Rocky pitcher won 10 games last year ( Fogg ), even though the team won 90 on the season. Francis was the rock of the rotation all year. Francis' 17 wins ties the Rockies record for wins in a season. Pedro Astacio also won 17 in 1999, and Kevin Ritz won 17 in 1996.
Aaron Lane Cook
Cook has never had a season strikeout rate per nine innings above 4 in his career. That's really not good. And yet he hangs in there, and has actually put together some really fine years. Well, one fine year, in 2006, and several other decent but injury shortened years. He missed most of the last two month of the 2007 regular season. The Rockies have signed him to a 3 year, 30 million dollar contract, so they clearly do believe in him. And they should, because they aren't likely to get anyone better for that money. But there are two nagging questions attached to Cook.
First, will his poor strikeout rate really nail him one of these years? Unlike Francis, Cook is much worse at home, which isn't too surprising since you don't want to be giving up a lot of balls in play in the giant Coors Field outfield. Aha, but Cook doesn't have that problem very often, since his ground ball to fly ball ratio is so high, near 3 in recent years. This probably helps explain how he can keep up his low strikeout success.
Second, will Cook be healthy for an entire year ever again? He missed half of 2004 and half of 2005 because of blood clots in his lungs resulting from a rib pressing against a vein. This is a freak thing unlikely to occur again. Last year's injury was not to his arm but too his oblique muscle. When I first looked at his stats I thought it was almost a sure thing he'd break down sometime this year but now I'm not so sure.
Ubaldo Jimenez
He's a talented pitcher without much of a record in the major leagues so far. He could be great, or he could flounder due to too many walks. He had a great four start stretch in late August last year when he was striking out far more than he walked, but before and after that he mostly struggled with a near 1:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks. Which pitcher shows up in 2008? Probably both, of course. I think the Rockies are going to end up with a solid front three starters when it's all put together, though.
Jason Michael Hirsh
Too many walks, too many fly balls, too many home runs. He had a 4.81 ERA last year before he broke his leg --- well, strike that, he actually pitched for five innings on the broken leg! To know what his actual ERA was before he broke the leg, I'd have to come up with pre-broken-leg and post-broken-leg splits.
Even with all this the Rockies would probably be delighted to slot him into the fourth starter slot right now if they could. But Hirsh has been shut down for most of this spring with right shoulder soreness and he's not likely to be ready by opening day. None of the contenders for the fifth starter job have been very impressive yet, which is a bad sign for the Rockies since these guys are also now contending for the fourth starter job.
Fifth Starter Spot
Mark Redman, Josh Towers, Kip Wells, Franklin Morales. None of them have a good spring ERA, which maybe isn't the end of the world given that these are small sample sizes in spring, but these guys know they are fighting for a starting spot, so can't even one of them get a mix of major league and AAA hitters out?
Morales seems to have lost velocity on his fastball this spring, but unless it's a catastrophic loss of velocity I think he has to make the rotation. He's the only young guy with lots of room to improve in the bunch. The rest of them are all past their expiry date, Tomko types, or worse.
Relievers
The Rockies had a fine bullpen last year. Along with Francis the 'pen was the glue that held the pitching staff together through all the injuries to starters last year. The Rockies 'pen won 35 games last year, most in the National League. They very often gave the Rocky offense a chance at comeback wins.
The core of the Rocky 'pen is back this year. Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz, Matt Herges and Brian Fuentes all had an ERA below 3.1 last year, and all are back. Affeldt and Hawkins who pitched over 100 innings between them at an ERA of 3.5 are gone. The 'pen of the Rockies projects to be a strength again, but one never knows with bullpens. Can the Rockies really count on another sub 3 ERA from a guy like Herges? Given how shaky the back end of the rotation looks, the 'pen had better be good again.
Summary
Where do the Rockies fit into the NL West this year? The easy part is that they appear better than the Padres. Both the Padres and Rockies have back of rotation issues, but where the Padres appear slightly better in the 'pen and at the front of the rotation, the Rockies are much better on offense. Especially compare those outfields.
I think the Dodger pitching is going to be superior to the Rockies pitching this year. The Dodgers are at worst equal to the Rockies at the top of the rotation, and what the Dodgers have available for the fourth and fifth rotation spots overwhelms anything the Rockies have. This analysis changes dramatically if someone goes down with injury suddenly, of course. The bullpens are probably a wash.
The Dodger offense is potentially as good as the Rockies offense. It could be. Kent, Furcal, Martin, Kemp and Loney could match the production of the big four plus Tulo for the Rockies. Kemp and Loney each has to play to his potential ( and be given playing time ). Kent has to hold off a steep decline due to age. Furcal has to bounce back from injury. Only Martin appears as much a "sure thing" as any of the Rockies big four. There's also Andruw Jones --- but I really don't like what I'm seeing from him so far.
Even if the Dodger offense can't match the Rocky offense, I think the Dodger pitching makes them slightly better this year, especially since I'm now sold on Kershaw making a significant contribution sometime this year. So right now, among the four NL West contenders, I have the Padres last, with the Rockies a game or two behind the Dodgers. Where do the Snakes fit in? I'll figure that out in my next NL West preview entry.
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