by Joshua Worley
In the classic short story "Harrison Bergeron" by Kurt Vonnegut, everyone is finally equal. Those who are stronger and more athletic than the lowest common denominator are made to bear excess weight, in particular. My question: How much excess weight would it take to make Matt Kemp equal to everyone else? 1000 pounds?
But, tsk tsk, he made another out on the bases. Never mind that grizzled veteran Luis Gonzalez and honorary grizzled veteran Russell Martin also made outs on the bases. Martin probably has an excuse, because he really had almost no time to react on Loney's liner, but Gonzalez really should have seen that the ball Martin hit would fall. This was another of those games where the Dodgers scored fewer runs than they should have. But the inefficient run scoring didn't matter because they outplayed the Cubs by such a wide margin.
After Kemp was picked off, I was really hoping that he would spend the rest of his evening collecting base hits, to make those who would focus again on his baserunning woes look foolish. And he did! 4-5 with a triple: my only lament about it is that I missed the triple because I was doing laundry. Kemp does need to tighten up his baserunning, of course. I don't deny that. The way he's been collecting base hits he'll get plenty of practice.
I'm beginning to think Kemp could hit .330 over a full season even while striking out 20% of the time, because when he does hit the ball he smokes it, and then he gets down to first base so fast. What would be a normal ground out to the hole from another player will be hit hard enough by Kemp to go through, or if it's fielded he'll beat the throw anyway.
Jake Peavy is starting tonight for the Padres on three days rest. Otherwise he would have started Friday to open up the series with the Rockies. The Rockies have to be pleased with this development! From the Dodger perspective, it doesn't much matter, as either way Peavy's next start would come during the Padres' visit to Dodger Stadium. I doubt pitching on three days rest will bother Peavy. The Rockies are only a game back of the Dodgers. They're a team I tend to overlook, but at home they're a beast. Their four game series in Philadelphia next week could be huge in the wild-care race.
Chris Young of the Padres had another rough start. Last time his downfall was walks, 6 of them. This time he had only two walks, an improvement, but he also gave up two home runs. It could be that by his next start he'll finally get back into his groove; the reduction in wildness at least has to be mildly encouraging to Padres fans. Young's next start is scheduled to come in the finale with the Rockies on Sunday, which means the Dodgers won't see him. Is that good or bad? The Padre pitchers figure to be Peavy, Germano, and Maddux, unless they want to push Maddux back to give Cassel another shot at the Dodgers. It appears the Dodgers will have Penny, Lowe, and Billingsley lined up for that important series. But they're all important now: after this weekend every game but three with the Giants is with a rival for one of the precious playoff spots.
It's going to be hard to know who to root for in a lot of these other series. Is it better if the Padres or Snakes win today? For winning the division, a Padre loss is probably better, while for winning the wild card a Snake loss is probably better. But no one really knows yet. Same goes for the Rockies-Padres series this weekend. One would think it's better that the Padres lose, unless at the end of the year the Dodgers miss out on the wild card spot by one game to the Rockies! As long as the Dodgers keep winning everything will be fine. But will they keep winning?
For much of this season the Dodgers seemed to be handicapping themselves into equality with everyone else by taking on excess weight. Every veteran chosen over a more productive young player was like a bag of lead strung around the team's neck. We're almost to the point where the self-handicapping has stopped. Almost. The 200 pound weight of Shea Hillenbrand seems to have been discarded in favor of Andy LaRoche, though Ramon Martinez remains a danger. Gonzalez still gets too much playing time, but at least he's also being benched enough that's he's complaining about it. The senseless starts for Sweeney or Saenz at first base in place of Loney have stopped. The starting pitching is in pretty good shape, with Tomko and Hendrickson cast off. The Dodger starters are better than the Padres or Snakes at this point, by my reckoning, if only because of Chris Young's troubles.
Having cast off their excess weight and embraced their own potential for excellence, the Dodgers could go all the way, unless Diana Mets Glampers shoots them.
05 September 2007
04 September 2007
Snake Hunt
by Joshua Worley
The Cubs can absorb losing two of the next three a lot better than the Dodgers can. Even if the Cubs were to be swept they would still likely be tied for first place, or just a game out. If the Dodgers lose three in a row, they slip into fourth place in the wild card standings.
So who plays better, the team with all the pressure on them, or the team who knows they have a cushion? The answer is probably neither, that pressure has little to do with who wins the game. But both "nothing to lose" and the opposite reason of "backs against the wall" are favorite lines in game stories late in the season. Why did team A win the game? Just reach into the big bag of psychological reasons and find the one that fits.
Of course the Cubs are feeling some pressure, but I do think it's less than what's on the Dodgers at this point. And yet I'm feeling pretty good about the Dodgers' chances. The Diamondbacks appear very catchable right now. You still have to give the Snakes the edge, because they are 3 games up. Who's playing better right now, though, between the Dodgers and the Snakes? Who's likely to play better in the coming weeks?
People often point to the Snakes' run differential ( currently 591-635 ) as evidence that they are a mirage. This two-week-old article by Chris Jaffe at the hardball times argues otherwise. His basic argument is that the Snakes negative run differential is largely a result of some truly awful back of the bullpen relievers, but that these men are only used in games that the Snakes are already on their way to losing, so the don't effect the bottom line of wins and losses.
Here are the OBP and SLG of the Snakes and their opponents:
Arizona -- 0.315 -- 0.407
Opponents -- 0.332 -- 0.419
Well, no wonder they've been outscored! Their opponents get on base more and push those runners around the bases more. But these numbers include the terrible back end of the Arizona bullpen, which is misleading since nearly everything they allow comes in sure losses anyway. So below are the OBP and SLG of the Snakes and their opponents when just the good Snakes pitchers are counted. I've used the pitching stats for the good five relievers of Slaten, Pena, Lyon, Valverde, and Cruz and the current four regular starters of Webb, Owings, Hernandez and Davis.
Arizona -- 0.315 -- 0.407
Opponents -- 0.324 -- 0.400
Well, this is much better. But it's still not exactly the profile of a winning team. This looks like a slighlty below 0.500 team to me, since OBP is more important to scoring runs than SLG.
( What about Randy Johnson? Should I have included him? Well, he's not important to the games ahead of the Snakes, but if he's included the SLG and OBP allowed each improve by just a point. )
Of course, the recalculated pitching numbers leaves out the Snakes' fifth starter. Dana Eveland made the last start in the 5 position, but he'll likely be replaced by Edgar Gonzalez next time around. Fortunately for the Snakes they get to skip the 5 spot once because of days off; unfortunately Gonzalez has an ERA of 5 on the season.
So yeah, the Snakes are better than their run differential. But not enough better to make them intrinsically better than the Dodgers, who do have the profile of a modestly winning team. The Dodgers have a 17 point edge in OBP and 13 point edge in SLG over their opponents. The huge advantage for the Snakes is that 3 game lead in the standings. The Dodgers can't have any more losing streaks.
I think there's a good chance the Snakes go 0.500 or worse in their remaining games. If they do that, the Dodgers have a shot at catching them. And ... so do the Phillies. In the end, the Dodgers may find it harder to stay even with the Phillies than to catch up with the Snakes!
The Cubs can absorb losing two of the next three a lot better than the Dodgers can. Even if the Cubs were to be swept they would still likely be tied for first place, or just a game out. If the Dodgers lose three in a row, they slip into fourth place in the wild card standings.
So who plays better, the team with all the pressure on them, or the team who knows they have a cushion? The answer is probably neither, that pressure has little to do with who wins the game. But both "nothing to lose" and the opposite reason of "backs against the wall" are favorite lines in game stories late in the season. Why did team A win the game? Just reach into the big bag of psychological reasons and find the one that fits.
Of course the Cubs are feeling some pressure, but I do think it's less than what's on the Dodgers at this point. And yet I'm feeling pretty good about the Dodgers' chances. The Diamondbacks appear very catchable right now. You still have to give the Snakes the edge, because they are 3 games up. Who's playing better right now, though, between the Dodgers and the Snakes? Who's likely to play better in the coming weeks?
People often point to the Snakes' run differential ( currently 591-635 ) as evidence that they are a mirage. This two-week-old article by Chris Jaffe at the hardball times argues otherwise. His basic argument is that the Snakes negative run differential is largely a result of some truly awful back of the bullpen relievers, but that these men are only used in games that the Snakes are already on their way to losing, so the don't effect the bottom line of wins and losses.
Here are the OBP and SLG of the Snakes and their opponents:
Arizona -- 0.315 -- 0.407
Opponents -- 0.332 -- 0.419
Well, no wonder they've been outscored! Their opponents get on base more and push those runners around the bases more. But these numbers include the terrible back end of the Arizona bullpen, which is misleading since nearly everything they allow comes in sure losses anyway. So below are the OBP and SLG of the Snakes and their opponents when just the good Snakes pitchers are counted. I've used the pitching stats for the good five relievers of Slaten, Pena, Lyon, Valverde, and Cruz and the current four regular starters of Webb, Owings, Hernandez and Davis.
Arizona -- 0.315 -- 0.407
Opponents -- 0.324 -- 0.400
Well, this is much better. But it's still not exactly the profile of a winning team. This looks like a slighlty below 0.500 team to me, since OBP is more important to scoring runs than SLG.
( What about Randy Johnson? Should I have included him? Well, he's not important to the games ahead of the Snakes, but if he's included the SLG and OBP allowed each improve by just a point. )
Of course, the recalculated pitching numbers leaves out the Snakes' fifth starter. Dana Eveland made the last start in the 5 position, but he'll likely be replaced by Edgar Gonzalez next time around. Fortunately for the Snakes they get to skip the 5 spot once because of days off; unfortunately Gonzalez has an ERA of 5 on the season.
So yeah, the Snakes are better than their run differential. But not enough better to make them intrinsically better than the Dodgers, who do have the profile of a modestly winning team. The Dodgers have a 17 point edge in OBP and 13 point edge in SLG over their opponents. The huge advantage for the Snakes is that 3 game lead in the standings. The Dodgers can't have any more losing streaks.
I think there's a good chance the Snakes go 0.500 or worse in their remaining games. If they do that, the Dodgers have a shot at catching them. And ... so do the Phillies. In the end, the Dodgers may find it harder to stay even with the Phillies than to catch up with the Snakes!
02 September 2007
The Back Door
by Joshua Worley
When it comes to criticizing Matt Kemp, the front door is locked and barred, guarded by a large, red-eyed dog. Kemp's batting results are spectacular, the best on the team. 0.891 OPS. 0.335 batting average. His road OPS is 0.837 ( not counting today ) even though all nine of his home runs have come at home. He's stolen 8 bases in 11 attempts. The front way is barred beyond any doubt by Matthew Ryan Kemp.
How quickly we look for that back door, though. You just have to go around a bit, out of view of all that stuff in the front. The back door is unlocked, wide open even, and guarded, if one could call it that, by a friendly golden retriever who will lick your hands and invite you in. Welcome, welcome into the house of criticizing Matt Kemp. There's so much to see here, by way of this back door. Base-running misadventures. Strikeouts. Swinging at bad pitches. Looking over-matched and out of his league in certain memorable at bats. Being iffy in the outfield. Even today, while Kemp was in the process of locking down the front door even more with 3 hits, 2 runs scored, 1 RBI, he left the back door open even more when he was doubled off first base on a Jeff Kent fly ball.
All of these back-door criticisms are valid, in their usually very limited contexts. I've mentioned them or thought of all of them for myself on several occasions. And I wonder why. Why do I and others go to the back door so quickly? It's his youth, his newness, I guess. He's unproven, in the conventional sense. He certainly has things to learn, to improve upon. But let's not lose sight of that barred front door. When he plays Kemp does more than nearly anyone else to help the Dodgers win games. His net effect on the Dodger season has been overwhelmingly positive.
The truth is that every Dodger has a wide open back door for criticism. The difference is we don't look for it with most other Dodgers. I really think it's time to stop looking for it with Kemp as well. He does need to work on his base-running, defense, and plate discipline. But should such a big deal be made out of it? Should stories be written about his base-running blunders instead of his awesome hitting?
I began with this title to talk about how the Dodgers would now be looking to make the playoffs, but instead it became a piece about Matt Kemp. In the Dodgers case, too, the front door is barred. Most likely. In this case the front way is overtaking the Padres and winning the division. It's probably not going to happen. The Padres are a better team, and four games ahead, with only three head-to-head games remaining. If the Dodgers swept those games, then maybe, but really they'll be lucky to win 2 of those 3.
The back door is overtaking the Snakes and the Phillies and winning the wild card. The Snakes are better than I thought they were earlier, but probably still not quite as good as their record. Not as good as the Padres. Even though the Dodgers are also 4 back of the Snakes, I think they're a much easier target to overtake than the Padres. The Dodgers have 6 left with them, plenty of games with which to make some noise. This weekend has been disheartening, but it's too early to give up. Catching the Phillies and Diamondbacks is a reachable goal. It begins by attempting to take at least 3 of 4 from the Cubs. The back door is still open.
When it comes to criticizing Matt Kemp, the front door is locked and barred, guarded by a large, red-eyed dog. Kemp's batting results are spectacular, the best on the team. 0.891 OPS. 0.335 batting average. His road OPS is 0.837 ( not counting today ) even though all nine of his home runs have come at home. He's stolen 8 bases in 11 attempts. The front way is barred beyond any doubt by Matthew Ryan Kemp.
How quickly we look for that back door, though. You just have to go around a bit, out of view of all that stuff in the front. The back door is unlocked, wide open even, and guarded, if one could call it that, by a friendly golden retriever who will lick your hands and invite you in. Welcome, welcome into the house of criticizing Matt Kemp. There's so much to see here, by way of this back door. Base-running misadventures. Strikeouts. Swinging at bad pitches. Looking over-matched and out of his league in certain memorable at bats. Being iffy in the outfield. Even today, while Kemp was in the process of locking down the front door even more with 3 hits, 2 runs scored, 1 RBI, he left the back door open even more when he was doubled off first base on a Jeff Kent fly ball.
All of these back-door criticisms are valid, in their usually very limited contexts. I've mentioned them or thought of all of them for myself on several occasions. And I wonder why. Why do I and others go to the back door so quickly? It's his youth, his newness, I guess. He's unproven, in the conventional sense. He certainly has things to learn, to improve upon. But let's not lose sight of that barred front door. When he plays Kemp does more than nearly anyone else to help the Dodgers win games. His net effect on the Dodger season has been overwhelmingly positive.
The truth is that every Dodger has a wide open back door for criticism. The difference is we don't look for it with most other Dodgers. I really think it's time to stop looking for it with Kemp as well. He does need to work on his base-running, defense, and plate discipline. But should such a big deal be made out of it? Should stories be written about his base-running blunders instead of his awesome hitting?
I began with this title to talk about how the Dodgers would now be looking to make the playoffs, but instead it became a piece about Matt Kemp. In the Dodgers case, too, the front door is barred. Most likely. In this case the front way is overtaking the Padres and winning the division. It's probably not going to happen. The Padres are a better team, and four games ahead, with only three head-to-head games remaining. If the Dodgers swept those games, then maybe, but really they'll be lucky to win 2 of those 3.
The back door is overtaking the Snakes and the Phillies and winning the wild card. The Snakes are better than I thought they were earlier, but probably still not quite as good as their record. Not as good as the Padres. Even though the Dodgers are also 4 back of the Snakes, I think they're a much easier target to overtake than the Padres. The Dodgers have 6 left with them, plenty of games with which to make some noise. This weekend has been disheartening, but it's too early to give up. Catching the Phillies and Diamondbacks is a reachable goal. It begins by attempting to take at least 3 of 4 from the Cubs. The back door is still open.
01 September 2007
Jettison Him Already!
by Joshua Worley
I'm inclined to blame the middle relief more than anything else, including Juan Pierre.
Look, maybe the Dodgers should have been ahead by 2 or 3 runs by the sixth inning, if everyone ( well, basically Kent and Pierre ) had played better in the field and on the bases. But the fact is the Dodgers were tied at 3 after 5 and half innings. The ballgame had become a battle of the bullpens. These are the kind of tight games that a team 3 or 4 games out of a playoff spot has to win. Only it didn't happen. Seanez and Beimel coughed up 3 runs, and the Dodgers couldn't score off of Brocail and Bell.
It would be foolish to say that the Dodgers have to win tonight and tomorrow to make the playoffs. It would be a lot better if they did, though. When you're 4 games behind a team, it's in large part those head-to-head match-ups that remain that give you hope. If we can beat them in those games, we'll be right back in it. Well, okay. Here are the head-to-head games. Time to win or forget about it. Splitting the last two games means being 4 back of a very good team with only 3 head-to-head games remaining. Losing both would mean being 6 back! So it's got to be wins in both games, or else face really long odds the rest of the way. Lowe and Billingsley have to each go at least 7 innings. With reasonable odds for reaching the postseason on the line, you don't want to have to trust anyone but Broxton and Saito in the 'pen.
It's also time to permanently bench Gonzalez and Hillenbrand. Will LaRoche even be called up? His stint in AAA was a rehab assignment, and not a reflection of where management thinks he belongs, right? I think LaRoche not being called up today would be even more depressing than seeing the Dodgers lose today. Or having him called up but seeing jerk and bad player Hillenbrand get the start at third anyway. He's not the second coming of Marlon Anderson! Marlon had an OPS of 1.243 with the Dodgers last year, Hillenbrand is at 0.643 so far with them. The Dodgers don't need Hillenbrand, with Abreu and LaRoche soon to be on the roster. Just jettison him already!
I'm inclined to blame the middle relief more than anything else, including Juan Pierre.
Look, maybe the Dodgers should have been ahead by 2 or 3 runs by the sixth inning, if everyone ( well, basically Kent and Pierre ) had played better in the field and on the bases. But the fact is the Dodgers were tied at 3 after 5 and half innings. The ballgame had become a battle of the bullpens. These are the kind of tight games that a team 3 or 4 games out of a playoff spot has to win. Only it didn't happen. Seanez and Beimel coughed up 3 runs, and the Dodgers couldn't score off of Brocail and Bell.
It would be foolish to say that the Dodgers have to win tonight and tomorrow to make the playoffs. It would be a lot better if they did, though. When you're 4 games behind a team, it's in large part those head-to-head match-ups that remain that give you hope. If we can beat them in those games, we'll be right back in it. Well, okay. Here are the head-to-head games. Time to win or forget about it. Splitting the last two games means being 4 back of a very good team with only 3 head-to-head games remaining. Losing both would mean being 6 back! So it's got to be wins in both games, or else face really long odds the rest of the way. Lowe and Billingsley have to each go at least 7 innings. With reasonable odds for reaching the postseason on the line, you don't want to have to trust anyone but Broxton and Saito in the 'pen.
It's also time to permanently bench Gonzalez and Hillenbrand. Will LaRoche even be called up? His stint in AAA was a rehab assignment, and not a reflection of where management thinks he belongs, right? I think LaRoche not being called up today would be even more depressing than seeing the Dodgers lose today. Or having him called up but seeing jerk and bad player Hillenbrand get the start at third anyway. He's not the second coming of Marlon Anderson! Marlon had an OPS of 1.243 with the Dodgers last year, Hillenbrand is at 0.643 so far with them. The Dodgers don't need Hillenbrand, with Abreu and LaRoche soon to be on the roster. Just jettison him already!
31 August 2007
Battle for the 405, Game 1: Cassel v Wells
by Joshua Worley
The north part of the "San Diego Freeway" is the I-405, while the south part is the I-5 south of the junction with the I-405. So this series is like a Civil War battle: each side has their own name for it. San Diegans will call it the battle for the 5.
Chris Young laid an egg last night in his return from the "concerned list", an unofficial list of players who aren't injured enough to go on the DL, but injured enough to miss a little time and make all the fans worry. The official line after the game was that Young was rusty, but more or less healthy. Perhaps --- he did walk 6 batters in his 4.1 innings. If I was a Padres fan I wouldn't be convinced that Young was healthy until he actually had a good outing. The control just wasn't there last night.
Because Young was knocked out early, the Padres had to dip deeper into their 'pen than they likely wanted to. In particular Ledezma was used for two innings, ending any possibility that he might have started tonight's game. Actually, according to the official Padre website they had decided by Wednesday night to go with AAA pitcher Jack Cassell for tonight's start anyway.
Though we've all seen young, unknown pitchers throw unexpected gems, there is a good chance the Padres will need to dip into their 'pen early again. Who will be available?
Below are the pitches each Padre reliever made in the four games against the Snakes, most recent game first.
Hoffman..... -- -- 12 17
Bell............ -- 17 11 12
Cameron..... 15 17 -- --
Brocail......... 6 -- 17 --
Ledezma..... 42 -- -- --
Meredith..... 16 -- -- --
Hampson..... -- -- -- --
Thatcher..... 10 -- -- --
Thatcher is italicized because he's likely to be the one sent down to make room for Cassel, though there is no official word on that yet. Ledezma might be available for an inning if the Padres were really desperate, but he'll probably get the night off after 42 pitches. But Hoffman, Bell, Brocail, and Meredith should all be fine to go. I'm guessing Hampson would be the designated long reliever should Cassell be knocked out before he goes 5. Cameron is one of the Padres best relievers, and he has made 15+ pitches two days in a row, so if he was called upon tonight he'd likely be off-limits Saturday. But unless there are extra innings, the Padres shouldn't run out of pitchers.
What about tonight's Padre starter?
Joseph "Jack" Buren Cassel -- P
age: 27
throws: right
AAA Portland Stats:
ERA -- IP -- SO/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9
3.91 -- 156.2 -- 6.7 -- 2.4 -- 0.75
Not too bad. Buren "the burner" is 27, which makes him much less of a prospect, but perhaps more likely to pitch effectively in his first major league start. I wonder if that's true, though. Does age have any correlation to how well a pitcher does in his first major league start?
The walk and home run numbers appear good, especially in the PCL. The strikeouts per 9 seems low to me, since you'd figure AAA hitters are easier to whiff than their major league counterparts. I checked the park factor on the AAA Portland ballpark, and it appears that it's mostly neutral toward runs, hits, walks, and strikeouts --- but very favorable to hitting home runs. Baseball Think Factory has a 1.22 factor for home runs from 2004 to 2006 in Portland. If this park factor is accurate for 2007, then this means Cassel's decent home run rate is even better looking. With the game tonight in Petco, the Dodgers shouldn't count on hitting a lot of home runs to win the game. ( Not that they ever do. ) If they get to him it will likely be by singling and doubling him to death. Cassel allowed 11.7 hits per 9 innings in AAA this year, so piling up the hits appears doable.
The Dodgers counter Cassel with Wells. I'm not sure which pitcher we should expect to last longer in the game, Cassel or Wells. The two runs in five innings performance that Wells gave the Dodgers last Sunday is realistically the most they can hope from him. So the Dodger bullpen is also likely to be very important in this game as well.
Fortunately they all had the day off yesterday after the 12 inning game on Wednesday. Saito had pitched in 4 consecutive games, so it would be nice if he could get another day off tonight, though if the Dodgers need him I think he'll be ready. Proctor made 47 pitches Wednesday and 24 Monday --- he really shouldn't be called upon tonight. Hendrickson made 22 pitches Wednesday, none Tuesday and just 8 Monday, so he should be fine for long relief tonight, though I'd much prefer the well rested and probably more competent Eric Stults. Though by the time of tonight's game, he may not even be on the roster to make room for Loaiza.
David Lee "Boomer" Wells -- P
age: 44
throws: left
ERA -- IP -- SO/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9
5.46 -- 123.2 -- 4.7 -- 2.6 -- 1.2
I'm sorry I looked. Not much to like there. Why is he better than Tomko again?
Perhaps he's not as much of a head case as Tomko seemed to be. And he's an amusing cheerleader on the bench. I don't think he can paint, though.
Wells Petco ERA was 3.91, which seems okay until you remember that it's one of the best pitcher's parks around. I'm not sure 3.91 is very impressive in that cavern. Wells' strikeouts to walks at Petco were 39 to 15, while away from Petco they're 26 to 21. Tonight's start by Wells is likely to be the best start he ever has as a Dodger. Let's hope it's a good one.
I'm thinking the score will be something like 4-3 or 3-3 after five innings from each starter. After that it will be a battle of the bullpens and the late inning offenses. The Padres weren't shy with their late inning offense against the Snakes, but the Dodger relievers are better. And the San Diego relievers aren't strangers to the late-inning loss. I think the Dodgers win a close one late in a battle of the bullpens. They'd better win, because Peavy the Pulverizer is going tomorrow.
The Dodgers don't have to sweep, but they really do need to win the series, and that has to start with a win tonight.
The north part of the "San Diego Freeway" is the I-405, while the south part is the I-5 south of the junction with the I-405. So this series is like a Civil War battle: each side has their own name for it. San Diegans will call it the battle for the 5.
Chris Young laid an egg last night in his return from the "concerned list", an unofficial list of players who aren't injured enough to go on the DL, but injured enough to miss a little time and make all the fans worry. The official line after the game was that Young was rusty, but more or less healthy. Perhaps --- he did walk 6 batters in his 4.1 innings. If I was a Padres fan I wouldn't be convinced that Young was healthy until he actually had a good outing. The control just wasn't there last night.
Because Young was knocked out early, the Padres had to dip deeper into their 'pen than they likely wanted to. In particular Ledezma was used for two innings, ending any possibility that he might have started tonight's game. Actually, according to the official Padre website they had decided by Wednesday night to go with AAA pitcher Jack Cassell for tonight's start anyway.
Though we've all seen young, unknown pitchers throw unexpected gems, there is a good chance the Padres will need to dip into their 'pen early again. Who will be available?
Below are the pitches each Padre reliever made in the four games against the Snakes, most recent game first.
Hoffman..... -- -- 12 17
Bell............ -- 17 11 12
Cameron..... 15 17 -- --
Brocail......... 6 -- 17 --
Ledezma..... 42 -- -- --
Meredith..... 16 -- -- --
Hampson..... -- -- -- --
Thatcher..... 10 -- -- --
Thatcher is italicized because he's likely to be the one sent down to make room for Cassel, though there is no official word on that yet. Ledezma might be available for an inning if the Padres were really desperate, but he'll probably get the night off after 42 pitches. But Hoffman, Bell, Brocail, and Meredith should all be fine to go. I'm guessing Hampson would be the designated long reliever should Cassell be knocked out before he goes 5. Cameron is one of the Padres best relievers, and he has made 15+ pitches two days in a row, so if he was called upon tonight he'd likely be off-limits Saturday. But unless there are extra innings, the Padres shouldn't run out of pitchers.
What about tonight's Padre starter?
Joseph "Jack" Buren Cassel -- P
age: 27
throws: right
AAA Portland Stats:
ERA -- IP -- SO/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9
3.91 -- 156.2 -- 6.7 -- 2.4 -- 0.75
Not too bad. Buren "the burner" is 27, which makes him much less of a prospect, but perhaps more likely to pitch effectively in his first major league start. I wonder if that's true, though. Does age have any correlation to how well a pitcher does in his first major league start?
The walk and home run numbers appear good, especially in the PCL. The strikeouts per 9 seems low to me, since you'd figure AAA hitters are easier to whiff than their major league counterparts. I checked the park factor on the AAA Portland ballpark, and it appears that it's mostly neutral toward runs, hits, walks, and strikeouts --- but very favorable to hitting home runs. Baseball Think Factory has a 1.22 factor for home runs from 2004 to 2006 in Portland. If this park factor is accurate for 2007, then this means Cassel's decent home run rate is even better looking. With the game tonight in Petco, the Dodgers shouldn't count on hitting a lot of home runs to win the game. ( Not that they ever do. ) If they get to him it will likely be by singling and doubling him to death. Cassel allowed 11.7 hits per 9 innings in AAA this year, so piling up the hits appears doable.
The Dodgers counter Cassel with Wells. I'm not sure which pitcher we should expect to last longer in the game, Cassel or Wells. The two runs in five innings performance that Wells gave the Dodgers last Sunday is realistically the most they can hope from him. So the Dodger bullpen is also likely to be very important in this game as well.
Fortunately they all had the day off yesterday after the 12 inning game on Wednesday. Saito had pitched in 4 consecutive games, so it would be nice if he could get another day off tonight, though if the Dodgers need him I think he'll be ready. Proctor made 47 pitches Wednesday and 24 Monday --- he really shouldn't be called upon tonight. Hendrickson made 22 pitches Wednesday, none Tuesday and just 8 Monday, so he should be fine for long relief tonight, though I'd much prefer the well rested and probably more competent Eric Stults. Though by the time of tonight's game, he may not even be on the roster to make room for Loaiza.
David Lee "Boomer" Wells -- P
age: 44
throws: left
ERA -- IP -- SO/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9
5.46 -- 123.2 -- 4.7 -- 2.6 -- 1.2
I'm sorry I looked. Not much to like there. Why is he better than Tomko again?
Perhaps he's not as much of a head case as Tomko seemed to be. And he's an amusing cheerleader on the bench. I don't think he can paint, though.
Wells Petco ERA was 3.91, which seems okay until you remember that it's one of the best pitcher's parks around. I'm not sure 3.91 is very impressive in that cavern. Wells' strikeouts to walks at Petco were 39 to 15, while away from Petco they're 26 to 21. Tonight's start by Wells is likely to be the best start he ever has as a Dodger. Let's hope it's a good one.
I'm thinking the score will be something like 4-3 or 3-3 after five innings from each starter. After that it will be a battle of the bullpens and the late inning offenses. The Padres weren't shy with their late inning offense against the Snakes, but the Dodger relievers are better. And the San Diego relievers aren't strangers to the late-inning loss. I think the Dodgers win a close one late in a battle of the bullpens. They'd better win, because Peavy the Pulverizer is going tomorrow.
The Dodgers don't have to sweep, but they really do need to win the series, and that has to start with a win tonight.
30 August 2007
Padres Preview
by Joshua Worley
The Dodgers start a critical 3 game series against the Padres in Petco Park in San Diego tomorrow. Depending on the result of tonight's Padres-Diamondback game, the Dodgers will either be 3 or 4 games back of the Padres going into the series. Winning the series with the Padres will be essential; sweeping would be divine.
Here is the lineup the Padres have used the past three days, along with Petco OPS:
B Giles -- 0.735
Cameron -- 0.738
Bradley -- 1.023
Gonzalez -- 0.727
Greene -- 0.648
Kouzmanoff -- 0.646
Bard -- 0.568
Blum -- 0.822
Petco is just a really tough place to hit. The Padres have a team OPS of 0.770 on the road, 0.677 at home. This is not a bad offensive team, but at home they look like one.
Milton Obelle Bradley -- LF
age: 29
bats: switch
0.342 -- 0.443 -- 0.640
The above stats are only from his games in San Diego. When healthy, he's been spectacular for the Padres. Unfortunately for them, he's having his usual trouble staying in the lineup. He's played in just 32 of 54 games since the Padres acquired him. He started his tenure with the Padres on the DL with the oblique injury that scuttled the trade sending him to the Royals, and then he was out for a few weeks in early August with a strained right hamstring. He seems to be healthy now, but he could go down at any moment. Even though he's apparently fully healthy I give him about a 20% chance of missing time this weekend with a new or re-aggravated injury.
That seems high, right? Well, he's been on the DL 4 times this year, and when he missed almost two weeks in August he apparently didn't go on the DL, so that's 5 separate injury stints this year. He's played 51 games this year, so by a naive reckoning he has about a 10% chance of being injured in any given game he plays in. His chance of getting through tonight's game with the Snakes and then all three Dodger games without injury is 0.9 to the fourth power, which is about 0.66. According to this admittedly crude method, Bradley actually has a one third chance of missing time this weekend. Maybe 20% is a conservative estimate!
The Padres are hoping he's over his fragile phase for this season, at least. I wonder if they'll want him back next year? He's been such a good hitter this year for them --- he even has a 1.023 OPS in Petco so far. This is a small sample size, of course, made even smaller because of his injury problems. The problem with a player who only plays in half your games is that no matter how good he is when in the lineup, his replacement likely isn't very good, so you average out to something less than you were hoping. If Bradley puts up a 0.900 OPS for half of 2008, and his fourth outfielder injury replacement puts up a 0.700 OPS, then you're left with on average an 0.800 OPS in a corner outfield spot. It's probably better to just go after a durable 0.820 OPS kind of guy than someone like Bradley.
And that's a shame because Bradley is such an exciting player. But who knows, maybe he'll be mostly healthy next year. If so, I hope it's not with the Padres! Bradley shows no signs of wearing out his welcome in San Diego yet. If the usual pattern holds his team will tire of him after two years.
Whatever the future holds for Bradley and the Padres, the fact is that he's healthy now, and mashing the ball. He's probably the best hitter coming into this big weekend series. He's not striking out very much, about 14% of the time with the Padres, and with them he's hitting a home run every 11 or 12 at bats.
Adrian Gonzalez -- 1B
age: 25
bats: left
0.279 -- 0.347 -- 0.491
The Padres' Gonzo has 23 home runs and 37 doubles. He's certainly capable of hitting the long fly ball. After a July and June swoon he's been hitting well again in August, with a 0.989 OPS. Bradley bats third, he bats fourth. That's a brutal pair to have to face in the middle of the lineup. Forget about Broxton being the eighth inning guy --- I think Broxton needs to come in whenever these two are going to be up late in a close game. Leave the Blums and Bards to the likes of Beimel and Proctor instead.
Gonzalez isn't as interesting as Bradley because he's never injured. I give him a 1% chance of missing time this weekend.
Brian Stephen Giles -- RF
age: 36
bats: left
0.298 -- 0.383 -- 0.432
Giles has rediscovered his power stroke! Giles has just two home runs through July, a shocking total from the man who averaged just over 37 a year over a 4 year stretch in Pittsburgh. It's true that his power has been steadily decreasing ever since he came to San Diego, but still ... 2? Well, no more. He's hit 6 home runs in August, to take his total to 8. And may it stay there for awhile. Giles has an OPS of 0.979 in August. Does every stinkin' Padres hitter have to be blazing hot? Maybe all that heat will screw with Bradley's hamstring ...
Now, Giles still only has 1 home run in Petco. So the main thing with him is still just to keep him off the bases. Don't walk him. He's the Padre leadoff hitter these days, and it would be tragic if he got on base in front of Bradley and Gonzalez too often.
Michael Terrance Cameron -- CF
age: 34
bats: right
0.255 -- 0.335 -- 0.452
Cameron has been very hot and cold this year. In August he's been --- guess what? --- hot. Of course. OPS of 0.923 in August. I bet even the Padres pitchers have OPS's above 0.900 in August. Fortunately the Saturday and Sunday games are in September! So all of the hot August hitters will suddenly have to rebuild their hotness from zero in a brand new month. That's how it works, right?
Cameron's weakness is strikeouts. He typically bats second, so it's going to be important for the Dodger pitchers to make him a non-factor in this series.
Khalil Thabit Greene -- SS
age: 27
bats: right
0.248 -- 0.285 -- 0.451
If the Padres are smart, and unfortunately they often are, they will look hard for a shortstop replacement next year. Thabit has turned into a bad habit in the Padre lineup. He's making way too many outs. He does have more home runs than anyone on the Dodgers, but he has a worse OBP than Juan Pierre. He doesn't walk a lot. The Dodger pitchers really need to make him prove that he'll take a pitch out of the strike zone before they challenge him.
Michael Patrick Barrett -- C
age: 30
bats: right
0.248 -- 0.286 -- 0.381
I don't understand why the Padres wanted him. Yes, he put up good numbers in Chicago the last three years. But this year he's falling off, and it may be more than just bad luck for a 30 year old catcher. He's been even worse since he left the Cubs for the Padres. There's also his bad team chemistry issues. I normally don't care too much about team chemistry, but I make an exception for catchers. Don't they need to at least get along with their pitchers? How soon until he and known hot-head Peavy get into a fight?
Bard has been better this year, which has worked out just fine for the Padres while Barrett has been out from a concussion. But Barrett is on a rehab assignment right now, and may come back sometimes in the series with the Dodgers. I'm guessing he might play in one game, maybe Saturday. Does a fight with Peavy loom? Probably not.
Joshua David Bard -- C
age: 29
bats: switch
0.268 -- 0.351 -- 0.381
Bard has some gnarly home-away OPS splits. 0.569 v 0.901. His left v right splits are as strong: 1.006 v 0.633. Good thing Wells isn't facing him away from Petco, eh? Bottom line is the Dodgers pitchers ( except for maybe Wells ) can look forward to getting a lot of outs from the catcher, whoever he is.
Kevin Kouzmanoff -- 3B
age: 26
bats: right
0.243 -- 0.296 -- 0.422
Only 23 walks, with 82 strikeouts. Maybe he's not the long-term answer at third base. It's not as if he's only 22 or 23. Future utility infielder? One can say that his year-long stats are being dragged down by his hideous April, and that's true, but since his good May he hasn't had a month where he cracked an 0.800 OPS yet. It is too early to give up on him, though.
Third base is another weak offensive position for the Padres. They do well in the outfield and at first base, but everywhere else they make too many outs. One big difference between the Padres and Dodgers is that the Padres weak hitters do tend to hit a fair number of home runs. Kouzmanoff is no exception, with 14. Who are the weak hitters on the Dodgers? Pierre, Nomar, ( when healthy ) Furcal ( borderline ) ... none of them hit home runs.
Geoffry Edward Blum -- 2B
age: 34
bats: switch
0.249 -- 0.318 -- 0.354
While Marcus Giles is on the DL with a knee injury, Blum is the regular second baseman. Maybe Blum should be the regular at second anyway --- as bad as his stats look, they're better than Marcus'. And he does well in Petco!
Blum is the exception to the Padres bad hitter rule, as he only has 3 home runs on the year. I've now gone through the likely Padre starters this weekend, and the bottom of the lineup looks pretty bad. The Dodgers have more lineup depth, with fewer low OBP hitters. The Dodgers can't match the combination of Bradley and Gonzalez, though. ( yet --- Eithier, Kemp and Loney are on their way ) The Padres have more power, and their overall offensive stats are skewed by playing half their games in Petco.
Bench
Name -- batting side -- position -- OPS
Terrmel Sledge -- left -- OF -- 0.700
Craig Leo Stansberry -- right -- IF -- 3 AB
Morgan Paul Ensberg -- right -- IF -- 0.724
Robert William Mackowiak -- left -- OF -- 0.728
Pierre-Luc LaForest -- left -- C -- 0.987 ( 25 AB )
Seems like a decent bench to me. Short, though. I geuss LaForest will be gone if Barrett comes back.
Relief Corp
Overall the Padres have a strong bullpen, as they have all year. The win-loss record of the pen is still sort of middling, at 25-22. One would think such a strong 'pen wouldn't have so many losses. In comparison, the Dodgers 'pen is 22-13.
7+ K per game
name -- throwing arm -- ERA
Heath Justin Bell -- right -- 2.36
Kevin John Cameron -- right -- 1.42
Wilfredo Jose Ledezma -- left -- 5.68
Bell is the Padres' best reliever, and their primary set-up man. Ledezma may get the start Friday.
6-7 K per game
Trevor William Hoffman -- right -- 2.63
Olise Claborne Meredith -- right -- 3.53
4-6 K per game
Justin Michael Hampson -- left -- 3.21
Joseph Thatcher -- left -- 0.00 ( 5 IP )
Starting Pitching
Chris Young is making his return to the rotation tonight against the Snakes. Friday's starter for the Padres is still undetermined. It could be Ledezma, or maybe Hampson, or maybe they would call up Jack Cassel from AAA Portland. Wells goes for the Dodgers on Friday.
Jake Peavy pitches Saturday against Derek Lowe, and Justin Germano pitches Sunday against Chad Billingsley.
If Wells can rediscover his Petco magic, the Dodgers may have a slight advantage Friday. The Padres should have the edge Saturday, and the Dodgers should again be slightly favored on Sunday. This series will be low-scoring baseball at it's finest! More on each matchup the day of each game.
The Dodgers start a critical 3 game series against the Padres in Petco Park in San Diego tomorrow. Depending on the result of tonight's Padres-Diamondback game, the Dodgers will either be 3 or 4 games back of the Padres going into the series. Winning the series with the Padres will be essential; sweeping would be divine.
Here is the lineup the Padres have used the past three days, along with Petco OPS:
B Giles -- 0.735
Cameron -- 0.738
Bradley -- 1.023
Gonzalez -- 0.727
Greene -- 0.648
Kouzmanoff -- 0.646
Bard -- 0.568
Blum -- 0.822
Petco is just a really tough place to hit. The Padres have a team OPS of 0.770 on the road, 0.677 at home. This is not a bad offensive team, but at home they look like one.
Milton Obelle Bradley -- LF
age: 29
bats: switch
0.342 -- 0.443 -- 0.640
The above stats are only from his games in San Diego. When healthy, he's been spectacular for the Padres. Unfortunately for them, he's having his usual trouble staying in the lineup. He's played in just 32 of 54 games since the Padres acquired him. He started his tenure with the Padres on the DL with the oblique injury that scuttled the trade sending him to the Royals, and then he was out for a few weeks in early August with a strained right hamstring. He seems to be healthy now, but he could go down at any moment. Even though he's apparently fully healthy I give him about a 20% chance of missing time this weekend with a new or re-aggravated injury.
That seems high, right? Well, he's been on the DL 4 times this year, and when he missed almost two weeks in August he apparently didn't go on the DL, so that's 5 separate injury stints this year. He's played 51 games this year, so by a naive reckoning he has about a 10% chance of being injured in any given game he plays in. His chance of getting through tonight's game with the Snakes and then all three Dodger games without injury is 0.9 to the fourth power, which is about 0.66. According to this admittedly crude method, Bradley actually has a one third chance of missing time this weekend. Maybe 20% is a conservative estimate!
The Padres are hoping he's over his fragile phase for this season, at least. I wonder if they'll want him back next year? He's been such a good hitter this year for them --- he even has a 1.023 OPS in Petco so far. This is a small sample size, of course, made even smaller because of his injury problems. The problem with a player who only plays in half your games is that no matter how good he is when in the lineup, his replacement likely isn't very good, so you average out to something less than you were hoping. If Bradley puts up a 0.900 OPS for half of 2008, and his fourth outfielder injury replacement puts up a 0.700 OPS, then you're left with on average an 0.800 OPS in a corner outfield spot. It's probably better to just go after a durable 0.820 OPS kind of guy than someone like Bradley.
And that's a shame because Bradley is such an exciting player. But who knows, maybe he'll be mostly healthy next year. If so, I hope it's not with the Padres! Bradley shows no signs of wearing out his welcome in San Diego yet. If the usual pattern holds his team will tire of him after two years.
Whatever the future holds for Bradley and the Padres, the fact is that he's healthy now, and mashing the ball. He's probably the best hitter coming into this big weekend series. He's not striking out very much, about 14% of the time with the Padres, and with them he's hitting a home run every 11 or 12 at bats.
Adrian Gonzalez -- 1B
age: 25
bats: left
0.279 -- 0.347 -- 0.491
The Padres' Gonzo has 23 home runs and 37 doubles. He's certainly capable of hitting the long fly ball. After a July and June swoon he's been hitting well again in August, with a 0.989 OPS. Bradley bats third, he bats fourth. That's a brutal pair to have to face in the middle of the lineup. Forget about Broxton being the eighth inning guy --- I think Broxton needs to come in whenever these two are going to be up late in a close game. Leave the Blums and Bards to the likes of Beimel and Proctor instead.
Gonzalez isn't as interesting as Bradley because he's never injured. I give him a 1% chance of missing time this weekend.
Brian Stephen Giles -- RF
age: 36
bats: left
0.298 -- 0.383 -- 0.432
Giles has rediscovered his power stroke! Giles has just two home runs through July, a shocking total from the man who averaged just over 37 a year over a 4 year stretch in Pittsburgh. It's true that his power has been steadily decreasing ever since he came to San Diego, but still ... 2? Well, no more. He's hit 6 home runs in August, to take his total to 8. And may it stay there for awhile. Giles has an OPS of 0.979 in August. Does every stinkin' Padres hitter have to be blazing hot? Maybe all that heat will screw with Bradley's hamstring ...
Now, Giles still only has 1 home run in Petco. So the main thing with him is still just to keep him off the bases. Don't walk him. He's the Padre leadoff hitter these days, and it would be tragic if he got on base in front of Bradley and Gonzalez too often.
Michael Terrance Cameron -- CF
age: 34
bats: right
0.255 -- 0.335 -- 0.452
Cameron has been very hot and cold this year. In August he's been --- guess what? --- hot. Of course. OPS of 0.923 in August. I bet even the Padres pitchers have OPS's above 0.900 in August. Fortunately the Saturday and Sunday games are in September! So all of the hot August hitters will suddenly have to rebuild their hotness from zero in a brand new month. That's how it works, right?
Cameron's weakness is strikeouts. He typically bats second, so it's going to be important for the Dodger pitchers to make him a non-factor in this series.
Khalil Thabit Greene -- SS
age: 27
bats: right
0.248 -- 0.285 -- 0.451
If the Padres are smart, and unfortunately they often are, they will look hard for a shortstop replacement next year. Thabit has turned into a bad habit in the Padre lineup. He's making way too many outs. He does have more home runs than anyone on the Dodgers, but he has a worse OBP than Juan Pierre. He doesn't walk a lot. The Dodger pitchers really need to make him prove that he'll take a pitch out of the strike zone before they challenge him.
Michael Patrick Barrett -- C
age: 30
bats: right
0.248 -- 0.286 -- 0.381
I don't understand why the Padres wanted him. Yes, he put up good numbers in Chicago the last three years. But this year he's falling off, and it may be more than just bad luck for a 30 year old catcher. He's been even worse since he left the Cubs for the Padres. There's also his bad team chemistry issues. I normally don't care too much about team chemistry, but I make an exception for catchers. Don't they need to at least get along with their pitchers? How soon until he and known hot-head Peavy get into a fight?
Bard has been better this year, which has worked out just fine for the Padres while Barrett has been out from a concussion. But Barrett is on a rehab assignment right now, and may come back sometimes in the series with the Dodgers. I'm guessing he might play in one game, maybe Saturday. Does a fight with Peavy loom? Probably not.
Joshua David Bard -- C
age: 29
bats: switch
0.268 -- 0.351 -- 0.381
Bard has some gnarly home-away OPS splits. 0.569 v 0.901. His left v right splits are as strong: 1.006 v 0.633. Good thing Wells isn't facing him away from Petco, eh? Bottom line is the Dodgers pitchers ( except for maybe Wells ) can look forward to getting a lot of outs from the catcher, whoever he is.
Kevin Kouzmanoff -- 3B
age: 26
bats: right
0.243 -- 0.296 -- 0.422
Only 23 walks, with 82 strikeouts. Maybe he's not the long-term answer at third base. It's not as if he's only 22 or 23. Future utility infielder? One can say that his year-long stats are being dragged down by his hideous April, and that's true, but since his good May he hasn't had a month where he cracked an 0.800 OPS yet. It is too early to give up on him, though.
Third base is another weak offensive position for the Padres. They do well in the outfield and at first base, but everywhere else they make too many outs. One big difference between the Padres and Dodgers is that the Padres weak hitters do tend to hit a fair number of home runs. Kouzmanoff is no exception, with 14. Who are the weak hitters on the Dodgers? Pierre, Nomar, ( when healthy ) Furcal ( borderline ) ... none of them hit home runs.
Geoffry Edward Blum -- 2B
age: 34
bats: switch
0.249 -- 0.318 -- 0.354
While Marcus Giles is on the DL with a knee injury, Blum is the regular second baseman. Maybe Blum should be the regular at second anyway --- as bad as his stats look, they're better than Marcus'. And he does well in Petco!
Blum is the exception to the Padres bad hitter rule, as he only has 3 home runs on the year. I've now gone through the likely Padre starters this weekend, and the bottom of the lineup looks pretty bad. The Dodgers have more lineup depth, with fewer low OBP hitters. The Dodgers can't match the combination of Bradley and Gonzalez, though. ( yet --- Eithier, Kemp and Loney are on their way ) The Padres have more power, and their overall offensive stats are skewed by playing half their games in Petco.
Bench
Name -- batting side -- position -- OPS
Terrmel Sledge -- left -- OF -- 0.700
Craig Leo Stansberry -- right -- IF -- 3 AB
Morgan Paul Ensberg -- right -- IF -- 0.724
Robert William Mackowiak -- left -- OF -- 0.728
Pierre-Luc LaForest -- left -- C -- 0.987 ( 25 AB )
Seems like a decent bench to me. Short, though. I geuss LaForest will be gone if Barrett comes back.
Relief Corp
Overall the Padres have a strong bullpen, as they have all year. The win-loss record of the pen is still sort of middling, at 25-22. One would think such a strong 'pen wouldn't have so many losses. In comparison, the Dodgers 'pen is 22-13.
7+ K per game
name -- throwing arm -- ERA
Heath Justin Bell -- right -- 2.36
Kevin John Cameron -- right -- 1.42
Wilfredo Jose Ledezma -- left -- 5.68
Bell is the Padres' best reliever, and their primary set-up man. Ledezma may get the start Friday.
6-7 K per game
Trevor William Hoffman -- right -- 2.63
Olise Claborne Meredith -- right -- 3.53
4-6 K per game
Justin Michael Hampson -- left -- 3.21
Joseph Thatcher -- left -- 0.00 ( 5 IP )
Starting Pitching
Chris Young is making his return to the rotation tonight against the Snakes. Friday's starter for the Padres is still undetermined. It could be Ledezma, or maybe Hampson, or maybe they would call up Jack Cassel from AAA Portland. Wells goes for the Dodgers on Friday.
Jake Peavy pitches Saturday against Derek Lowe, and Justin Germano pitches Sunday against Chad Billingsley.
If Wells can rediscover his Petco magic, the Dodgers may have a slight advantage Friday. The Padres should have the edge Saturday, and the Dodgers should again be slightly favored on Sunday. This series will be low-scoring baseball at it's finest! More on each matchup the day of each game.
29 August 2007
Oh Me of Little Faith
by Joshua Worley
If I didn't think the Dodgers would win when down 6-3 ( as I declared in my last post ) what did I think when they were down 8-3? I was the equivalent of Nick Van Exel shouting "Cancun!" in the pre-game huddle with the Lakers down 3 games to none against Utah in the 1998 NBA playoffs. ( This story comes from Shaq's autobiography --- apologies if he was making it up. ) I was mentally checking out on the season --- oh, I would have come back by Friday, I always do.
It's just one game, right? They're all just one game though. All the one games add up. And dammit it's so good to be happy concerning the Dodgers over the next two days, to not have to try to figure out what results in the next two Padre-Snake games hurt the Dodgers the least. The Dodgers are gaining a game on one of those teams now; that's what matters.
So many players were heroic, from Dodgers loathed to Dodgers loved. I can't stand Hillenbrand but he was probably the biggest hero, certainly in timing if nothing else. I love Kemp and Martin and they came up huge. I hope Martin's early home run won't be overlooked. I didn't think Proctor had it in him to pitch three scoreless, and he really didn't, but luck, and the double play, are a pitcher's best friends.
I leave this game full of optimism for the Dodgers this weekend, and full of dismay at the decisions Grady Little has been making lately. He seems to be slowly losing his mind. Loney bunting? I think I'd rather see Ramon Martinez hit for him! ( Not that this was an option at the time Loney bunted. ) Proctor pitching a third inning, and continuing to pitch that inning past the point when he was clearly gassed? I'd rather see Hernandez than a third inning from Proctor, honestly.
I should really change the title of this piece, to something about the team, and not about the self-absorbed blogger. But I have to call myself to task for saying the game was lost in the fifth inning, and I do find the whole question of when one gives up fascinating. I don't believe in momentum for teams, but I do believe in momentum for a fan's emotion. When I started that last post the Dodgers were in the process of scoring a run, so I was almost confident that they could come back, but when I finished it up they had just given up a run, so my optimism of a few paragraphs previous was gone and I schizophrenically ended it with a proclamation of doom. When I read that post again it's like two different people wrote it.
That's how today's game feels, that two different teams played it, or that it was two different games. It doesn't seem that the game that featured Penny's meltdown is the same one that featured Proctor's scary third inning. But they were the same. What a sport. I love baseball.
If I didn't think the Dodgers would win when down 6-3 ( as I declared in my last post ) what did I think when they were down 8-3? I was the equivalent of Nick Van Exel shouting "Cancun!" in the pre-game huddle with the Lakers down 3 games to none against Utah in the 1998 NBA playoffs. ( This story comes from Shaq's autobiography --- apologies if he was making it up. ) I was mentally checking out on the season --- oh, I would have come back by Friday, I always do.
It's just one game, right? They're all just one game though. All the one games add up. And dammit it's so good to be happy concerning the Dodgers over the next two days, to not have to try to figure out what results in the next two Padre-Snake games hurt the Dodgers the least. The Dodgers are gaining a game on one of those teams now; that's what matters.
So many players were heroic, from Dodgers loathed to Dodgers loved. I can't stand Hillenbrand but he was probably the biggest hero, certainly in timing if nothing else. I love Kemp and Martin and they came up huge. I hope Martin's early home run won't be overlooked. I didn't think Proctor had it in him to pitch three scoreless, and he really didn't, but luck, and the double play, are a pitcher's best friends.
I leave this game full of optimism for the Dodgers this weekend, and full of dismay at the decisions Grady Little has been making lately. He seems to be slowly losing his mind. Loney bunting? I think I'd rather see Ramon Martinez hit for him! ( Not that this was an option at the time Loney bunted. ) Proctor pitching a third inning, and continuing to pitch that inning past the point when he was clearly gassed? I'd rather see Hernandez than a third inning from Proctor, honestly.
I should really change the title of this piece, to something about the team, and not about the self-absorbed blogger. But I have to call myself to task for saying the game was lost in the fifth inning, and I do find the whole question of when one gives up fascinating. I don't believe in momentum for teams, but I do believe in momentum for a fan's emotion. When I started that last post the Dodgers were in the process of scoring a run, so I was almost confident that they could come back, but when I finished it up they had just given up a run, so my optimism of a few paragraphs previous was gone and I schizophrenically ended it with a proclamation of doom. When I read that post again it's like two different people wrote it.
That's how today's game feels, that two different teams played it, or that it was two different games. It doesn't seem that the game that featured Penny's meltdown is the same one that featured Proctor's scary third inning. But they were the same. What a sport. I love baseball.
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