03 October 2007

Angels vs Red Sox Statistical Breakdown

by Joshua Worley

Same method as the last two posts, with weights given to the stats based on how much each player is likely to play. This series is unique because it allows the teams to go with a 3-man rotation without any short rest. The Red Sox are taking advantage of this, while at the moment it appears the Angels are not.


Red Sox Hitter Weights

1.0 -- Ortiz
1.0 -- Varitek
1.0 -- Ramirez
1.0 -- Pedroia
1.0 -- Youklis
1.0 -- Lowell
1.0 -- Lugo
1.0 -- Drew
0.6 -- Crisp
0.4 -- Ellsbury

Drew was sitting more in the middle of the year, but since he started hitting better he's played just about every game, so I'm putting him down as a 1. Ellsbury was also playing just about every day in September, but Crisp is the veteran starter and Martinez is back, so he only gets a 0.4. The Sox would be best off benching Crisp, probably.


Red Sox Pither Weights

12 -- Becket
12 -- Matsuzaka
6 -- Schilling
3 -- Papelbon
3 -- Okajima
3 -- Delcarmen
3 -- Lopez
3 -- Timlin

Gagne is on the roster, but why would they use him unless they really had no one else? Lester is the long man and Wakefield is off the roster.


Red Sox Weighted Stats

Red Sox ---- OBP -- SLG
Offense -- 0.375 -- 0.460
Defense -- 0.293 -- 0.373
Difference -- (+82) -- (+87)

Wow. What a team. The winning percentage these basic numbers spit out is 0.713! That's what will happen when you pair a stacked offense with a pitching staff where four fifths of the starter innings come from Beckett and Matsuzaka.


Angels Hitter Weights

1.0 -- Guerrero
1.0 -- Willits
1.0 -- Anderson
1.0 -- Cabrera
1.0 -- Kendrick
1.0 -- Kotchman
1.0 -- Figgins
1.0 -- Izturis
0.5 -- Napoli
0.5 -- Mathis

Gary Matthews Jr. is not on the roster because of injury. So what would have been a complicated outfield situation ends up being very simple. This is a good offense, but not in the same class as the Red Sox.


Angels Pitcher Weights

12 -- Lackey
12 -- Escobar
6 -- Weaver
3 -- Rodriguez
3 -- Speier
3 -- Oliver
3 -- Shields
3 -- Moseley

I wonder if the probables listed on the Angels official site are wrong. It just doesn't make sense to go with Saunders in game 4, not when you could have Lackey and Escobar go again in 4 and 5 on regular rest. I can't believe that if faced with a 1-2 series deficit and Becket in game 4 that Scioscia would give the ball to Saunders instead of Lackey. So I'm going to give the Angels a 3-man rotation because I truly think that's what they'll go with.


Angels Weighted Stats

Angels ---- OBP -- SLG
Offense -- 0.361 -- 0.437
Defense -- 0.306 -- 0.368
Difference -- (+55) -- (+69)

Using the simple runs created formula of OBP times SLG and the pythagorean projection, the Angels would have a winning percentage of 0.661 with this team. That's with Escobar and Lackey starting 4 out of 5 games. If Saunders steals a start from Escobar, this goes down to 0.640, with the OBP going up by 6 points, and the SLG going up by 11 points. Really, Scioscia, you have to take advantage of the format here.


Prediction

Red Sox in 4. I just don't believe the Angels offense will score enough runs, and that Sox bullpen is better than the Angels bullpen. Unless Gagne pitches. I think the Angels win game three at home against Schilling and then get closed out by Becket in game 4.

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Tara said...
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