02 October 2007

Phillies vs Rockies Statistical Breakdown

by Joshua Worley

These are the two best teams in the National League. Or, more specifically, these are the two best playoff versions of teams in the NL. The method used to derive team stats was explained in the previous post: essentially each player's stats are weighted based on how much it appears he will play, so back-end pitchers and bench players are left out of the calculation.

Phillies Hitting Weights

1.0 -- Utley
1.0 -- Howard
1.0 -- Rollins
1.0 -- Burrell
1.0 -- Rowand
1.0 -- Dobbs
1.00.5 -- Ruiz
0.5 -- Coste Ruiz is carrying an injury that may limit his playing time, so either Coste or Barajas may see more time. They all have reasonable similar offensive stats, so it doesn't matter that much who gets the weight here.

0.6 -- Victorino
0.6 -- Werth
0.5 -- Phillies Pitchers
0.3 -- Helms

Victorino started 3 of the last 4 games, after Werth had started almost every game previously for more than a month due to Victorino's calf injury. I'm guessing they share time in this series, though Werth has the better numbers. I was always a big fan of Werth when he was a Dodger. This is a scary lineup, made better since Dobbs replaced Nunez at third base.

Phillies Pitching Weights

12 -- Hamels
6 -- Kendrick
6 -- Moyer
6 -- Lohse
3 -- Romero
3 -- Myers
3 -- Geary oops, Geary has been left off the roster because of injury, so I guess Alfonseca gets his innings. It's either that or Mesa!
3 -- Alfonseca
3 -- Gordon
3 -- Condrey

Romero and Hamels are awesome. That's a third of the Phillies pitching weight right there, which will make an iffy pitching staff suddenly look a lot better. The post-season is definitely not about team depth!

Phillies Weighted Stats

Updated with new player weights --- they didn't change much, fortunately. Why go to the trouble of updating them -- who cares, right? Well I care! ;-)

Phillies --- OBP -- SLG
Offense -- 0.357 -- 0.477
Defense -- 0.321 -- 0.418
Difference -- (+36) -- (+59)

Using a basic formula for runs created and a pythagorean projection, the playoff version of the Phillies are set up to have a winning percentage of 0.616. That seems high, right? Well, it's obtained by ignoring all the bad players on a team. The only way the Phillies could sustain this kind of winning percentage for an entire season would be if they could pitch Cole Hamels 2 out of every 5 games!

Rockies Hitting Weights

1.0 -- Holliday
1.0 -- Helton
1.0 -- Hawpe
1.0 -- Atkins
1.0 -- Tulowitzki
1.0 -- Torrealba
1.0 -- Matsui
0.7 -- Spilborghs
0.4 -- Sullivan
0.2 -- Carroll
0.2 -- Baker

When Taveras went down to injury the Rockies added more power in center field, without losing anything except a few stolen bases. This is a great offense, but not as great as the Phillies. They hit much better at home than on the road.

Rockies Pitching Weights

12 -- Francis
6 -- Jimenez
6 -- Morales
6 -- Fogg
3 -- Corpas
3 -- Fuentes
3 -- Herges
3 -- Hawkins
3 -- Affeldt

Before Monday's crazy finale I had no idea Herges was having such a good season. I'm having to guess a bit on the Rockies rotation, since they haven't announced anything yet. Redman has been the fifth man in the rotation the last few weeks, and he's done well, but I'm guessing it's these four at the moment. The Rockies pitching is much better than most people think. The rotation is decent, while the bullpen is fantastic, especially for pitching so many games in Coors.

Rockies Weighted Stats

Rockies --- OBP -- SLG
Offense -- 0.359 -- 0.455
Defense -- 0.317 -- 0.395
Difference -- (+42) -- (+60)

The winning percentage obtained from these numbers is 0.630! Just as with the Phillies, getting to start the ace in 2 out of 5 games makes the team look so much better. The Rockies are the best playoff constructed team in the National League.


Lots of runs, especially in the middle games when Francis and Hamels are out of the way. I like the Rockies in 4, splitting the first two in Philadelphia and then taking two in Denver. I just feel like they're unbeatable at home right now.

No comments: