by Joshua Worley
The north part of the "San Diego Freeway" is the I-405, while the south part is the I-5 south of the junction with the I-405. So this series is like a Civil War battle: each side has their own name for it. San Diegans will call it the battle for the 5.
Chris Young laid an egg last night in his return from the "concerned list", an unofficial list of players who aren't injured enough to go on the DL, but injured enough to miss a little time and make all the fans worry. The official line after the game was that Young was rusty, but more or less healthy. Perhaps --- he did walk 6 batters in his 4.1 innings. If I was a Padres fan I wouldn't be convinced that Young was healthy until he actually had a good outing. The control just wasn't there last night.
Because Young was knocked out early, the Padres had to dip deeper into their 'pen than they likely wanted to. In particular Ledezma was used for two innings, ending any possibility that he might have started tonight's game. Actually, according to the official Padre website they had decided by Wednesday night to go with AAA pitcher Jack Cassell for tonight's start anyway.
Though we've all seen young, unknown pitchers throw unexpected gems, there is a good chance the Padres will need to dip into their 'pen early again. Who will be available?
Below are the pitches each Padre reliever made in the four games against the Snakes, most recent game first.
Hoffman..... -- -- 12 17
Bell............ -- 17 11 12
Cameron..... 15 17 -- --
Brocail......... 6 -- 17 --
Ledezma..... 42 -- -- --
Meredith..... 16 -- -- --
Hampson..... -- -- -- --
Thatcher..... 10 -- -- --
Thatcher is italicized because he's likely to be the one sent down to make room for Cassel, though there is no official word on that yet. Ledezma might be available for an inning if the Padres were really desperate, but he'll probably get the night off after 42 pitches. But Hoffman, Bell, Brocail, and Meredith should all be fine to go. I'm guessing Hampson would be the designated long reliever should Cassell be knocked out before he goes 5. Cameron is one of the Padres best relievers, and he has made 15+ pitches two days in a row, so if he was called upon tonight he'd likely be off-limits Saturday. But unless there are extra innings, the Padres shouldn't run out of pitchers.
What about tonight's Padre starter?
Joseph "Jack" Buren Cassel -- P
age: 27
throws: right
AAA Portland Stats:
ERA -- IP -- SO/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9
3.91 -- 156.2 -- 6.7 -- 2.4 -- 0.75
Not too bad. Buren "the burner" is 27, which makes him much less of a prospect, but perhaps more likely to pitch effectively in his first major league start. I wonder if that's true, though. Does age have any correlation to how well a pitcher does in his first major league start?
The walk and home run numbers appear good, especially in the PCL. The strikeouts per 9 seems low to me, since you'd figure AAA hitters are easier to whiff than their major league counterparts. I checked the park factor on the AAA Portland ballpark, and it appears that it's mostly neutral toward runs, hits, walks, and strikeouts --- but very favorable to hitting home runs. Baseball Think Factory has a 1.22 factor for home runs from 2004 to 2006 in Portland. If this park factor is accurate for 2007, then this means Cassel's decent home run rate is even better looking. With the game tonight in Petco, the Dodgers shouldn't count on hitting a lot of home runs to win the game. ( Not that they ever do. ) If they get to him it will likely be by singling and doubling him to death. Cassel allowed 11.7 hits per 9 innings in AAA this year, so piling up the hits appears doable.
The Dodgers counter Cassel with Wells. I'm not sure which pitcher we should expect to last longer in the game, Cassel or Wells. The two runs in five innings performance that Wells gave the Dodgers last Sunday is realistically the most they can hope from him. So the Dodger bullpen is also likely to be very important in this game as well.
Fortunately they all had the day off yesterday after the 12 inning game on Wednesday. Saito had pitched in 4 consecutive games, so it would be nice if he could get another day off tonight, though if the Dodgers need him I think he'll be ready. Proctor made 47 pitches Wednesday and 24 Monday --- he really shouldn't be called upon tonight. Hendrickson made 22 pitches Wednesday, none Tuesday and just 8 Monday, so he should be fine for long relief tonight, though I'd much prefer the well rested and probably more competent Eric Stults. Though by the time of tonight's game, he may not even be on the roster to make room for Loaiza.
David Lee "Boomer" Wells -- P
age: 44
throws: left
ERA -- IP -- SO/9 -- BB/9 -- HR/9
5.46 -- 123.2 -- 4.7 -- 2.6 -- 1.2
I'm sorry I looked. Not much to like there. Why is he better than Tomko again?
Perhaps he's not as much of a head case as Tomko seemed to be. And he's an amusing cheerleader on the bench. I don't think he can paint, though.
Wells Petco ERA was 3.91, which seems okay until you remember that it's one of the best pitcher's parks around. I'm not sure 3.91 is very impressive in that cavern. Wells' strikeouts to walks at Petco were 39 to 15, while away from Petco they're 26 to 21. Tonight's start by Wells is likely to be the best start he ever has as a Dodger. Let's hope it's a good one.
I'm thinking the score will be something like 4-3 or 3-3 after five innings from each starter. After that it will be a battle of the bullpens and the late inning offenses. The Padres weren't shy with their late inning offense against the Snakes, but the Dodger relievers are better. And the San Diego relievers aren't strangers to the late-inning loss. I think the Dodgers win a close one late in a battle of the bullpens. They'd better win, because Peavy the Pulverizer is going tomorrow.
The Dodgers don't have to sweep, but they really do need to win the series, and that has to start with a win tonight.
31 August 2007
30 August 2007
Padres Preview
by Joshua Worley
The Dodgers start a critical 3 game series against the Padres in Petco Park in San Diego tomorrow. Depending on the result of tonight's Padres-Diamondback game, the Dodgers will either be 3 or 4 games back of the Padres going into the series. Winning the series with the Padres will be essential; sweeping would be divine.
Here is the lineup the Padres have used the past three days, along with Petco OPS:
B Giles -- 0.735
Cameron -- 0.738
Bradley -- 1.023
Gonzalez -- 0.727
Greene -- 0.648
Kouzmanoff -- 0.646
Bard -- 0.568
Blum -- 0.822
Petco is just a really tough place to hit. The Padres have a team OPS of 0.770 on the road, 0.677 at home. This is not a bad offensive team, but at home they look like one.
Milton Obelle Bradley -- LF
age: 29
bats: switch
0.342 -- 0.443 -- 0.640
The above stats are only from his games in San Diego. When healthy, he's been spectacular for the Padres. Unfortunately for them, he's having his usual trouble staying in the lineup. He's played in just 32 of 54 games since the Padres acquired him. He started his tenure with the Padres on the DL with the oblique injury that scuttled the trade sending him to the Royals, and then he was out for a few weeks in early August with a strained right hamstring. He seems to be healthy now, but he could go down at any moment. Even though he's apparently fully healthy I give him about a 20% chance of missing time this weekend with a new or re-aggravated injury.
That seems high, right? Well, he's been on the DL 4 times this year, and when he missed almost two weeks in August he apparently didn't go on the DL, so that's 5 separate injury stints this year. He's played 51 games this year, so by a naive reckoning he has about a 10% chance of being injured in any given game he plays in. His chance of getting through tonight's game with the Snakes and then all three Dodger games without injury is 0.9 to the fourth power, which is about 0.66. According to this admittedly crude method, Bradley actually has a one third chance of missing time this weekend. Maybe 20% is a conservative estimate!
The Padres are hoping he's over his fragile phase for this season, at least. I wonder if they'll want him back next year? He's been such a good hitter this year for them --- he even has a 1.023 OPS in Petco so far. This is a small sample size, of course, made even smaller because of his injury problems. The problem with a player who only plays in half your games is that no matter how good he is when in the lineup, his replacement likely isn't very good, so you average out to something less than you were hoping. If Bradley puts up a 0.900 OPS for half of 2008, and his fourth outfielder injury replacement puts up a 0.700 OPS, then you're left with on average an 0.800 OPS in a corner outfield spot. It's probably better to just go after a durable 0.820 OPS kind of guy than someone like Bradley.
And that's a shame because Bradley is such an exciting player. But who knows, maybe he'll be mostly healthy next year. If so, I hope it's not with the Padres! Bradley shows no signs of wearing out his welcome in San Diego yet. If the usual pattern holds his team will tire of him after two years.
Whatever the future holds for Bradley and the Padres, the fact is that he's healthy now, and mashing the ball. He's probably the best hitter coming into this big weekend series. He's not striking out very much, about 14% of the time with the Padres, and with them he's hitting a home run every 11 or 12 at bats.
Adrian Gonzalez -- 1B
age: 25
bats: left
0.279 -- 0.347 -- 0.491
The Padres' Gonzo has 23 home runs and 37 doubles. He's certainly capable of hitting the long fly ball. After a July and June swoon he's been hitting well again in August, with a 0.989 OPS. Bradley bats third, he bats fourth. That's a brutal pair to have to face in the middle of the lineup. Forget about Broxton being the eighth inning guy --- I think Broxton needs to come in whenever these two are going to be up late in a close game. Leave the Blums and Bards to the likes of Beimel and Proctor instead.
Gonzalez isn't as interesting as Bradley because he's never injured. I give him a 1% chance of missing time this weekend.
Brian Stephen Giles -- RF
age: 36
bats: left
0.298 -- 0.383 -- 0.432
Giles has rediscovered his power stroke! Giles has just two home runs through July, a shocking total from the man who averaged just over 37 a year over a 4 year stretch in Pittsburgh. It's true that his power has been steadily decreasing ever since he came to San Diego, but still ... 2? Well, no more. He's hit 6 home runs in August, to take his total to 8. And may it stay there for awhile. Giles has an OPS of 0.979 in August. Does every stinkin' Padres hitter have to be blazing hot? Maybe all that heat will screw with Bradley's hamstring ...
Now, Giles still only has 1 home run in Petco. So the main thing with him is still just to keep him off the bases. Don't walk him. He's the Padre leadoff hitter these days, and it would be tragic if he got on base in front of Bradley and Gonzalez too often.
Michael Terrance Cameron -- CF
age: 34
bats: right
0.255 -- 0.335 -- 0.452
Cameron has been very hot and cold this year. In August he's been --- guess what? --- hot. Of course. OPS of 0.923 in August. I bet even the Padres pitchers have OPS's above 0.900 in August. Fortunately the Saturday and Sunday games are in September! So all of the hot August hitters will suddenly have to rebuild their hotness from zero in a brand new month. That's how it works, right?
Cameron's weakness is strikeouts. He typically bats second, so it's going to be important for the Dodger pitchers to make him a non-factor in this series.
Khalil Thabit Greene -- SS
age: 27
bats: right
0.248 -- 0.285 -- 0.451
If the Padres are smart, and unfortunately they often are, they will look hard for a shortstop replacement next year. Thabit has turned into a bad habit in the Padre lineup. He's making way too many outs. He does have more home runs than anyone on the Dodgers, but he has a worse OBP than Juan Pierre. He doesn't walk a lot. The Dodger pitchers really need to make him prove that he'll take a pitch out of the strike zone before they challenge him.
Michael Patrick Barrett -- C
age: 30
bats: right
0.248 -- 0.286 -- 0.381
I don't understand why the Padres wanted him. Yes, he put up good numbers in Chicago the last three years. But this year he's falling off, and it may be more than just bad luck for a 30 year old catcher. He's been even worse since he left the Cubs for the Padres. There's also his bad team chemistry issues. I normally don't care too much about team chemistry, but I make an exception for catchers. Don't they need to at least get along with their pitchers? How soon until he and known hot-head Peavy get into a fight?
Bard has been better this year, which has worked out just fine for the Padres while Barrett has been out from a concussion. But Barrett is on a rehab assignment right now, and may come back sometimes in the series with the Dodgers. I'm guessing he might play in one game, maybe Saturday. Does a fight with Peavy loom? Probably not.
Joshua David Bard -- C
age: 29
bats: switch
0.268 -- 0.351 -- 0.381
Bard has some gnarly home-away OPS splits. 0.569 v 0.901. His left v right splits are as strong: 1.006 v 0.633. Good thing Wells isn't facing him away from Petco, eh? Bottom line is the Dodgers pitchers ( except for maybe Wells ) can look forward to getting a lot of outs from the catcher, whoever he is.
Kevin Kouzmanoff -- 3B
age: 26
bats: right
0.243 -- 0.296 -- 0.422
Only 23 walks, with 82 strikeouts. Maybe he's not the long-term answer at third base. It's not as if he's only 22 or 23. Future utility infielder? One can say that his year-long stats are being dragged down by his hideous April, and that's true, but since his good May he hasn't had a month where he cracked an 0.800 OPS yet. It is too early to give up on him, though.
Third base is another weak offensive position for the Padres. They do well in the outfield and at first base, but everywhere else they make too many outs. One big difference between the Padres and Dodgers is that the Padres weak hitters do tend to hit a fair number of home runs. Kouzmanoff is no exception, with 14. Who are the weak hitters on the Dodgers? Pierre, Nomar, ( when healthy ) Furcal ( borderline ) ... none of them hit home runs.
Geoffry Edward Blum -- 2B
age: 34
bats: switch
0.249 -- 0.318 -- 0.354
While Marcus Giles is on the DL with a knee injury, Blum is the regular second baseman. Maybe Blum should be the regular at second anyway --- as bad as his stats look, they're better than Marcus'. And he does well in Petco!
Blum is the exception to the Padres bad hitter rule, as he only has 3 home runs on the year. I've now gone through the likely Padre starters this weekend, and the bottom of the lineup looks pretty bad. The Dodgers have more lineup depth, with fewer low OBP hitters. The Dodgers can't match the combination of Bradley and Gonzalez, though. ( yet --- Eithier, Kemp and Loney are on their way ) The Padres have more power, and their overall offensive stats are skewed by playing half their games in Petco.
Bench
Name -- batting side -- position -- OPS
Terrmel Sledge -- left -- OF -- 0.700
Craig Leo Stansberry -- right -- IF -- 3 AB
Morgan Paul Ensberg -- right -- IF -- 0.724
Robert William Mackowiak -- left -- OF -- 0.728
Pierre-Luc LaForest -- left -- C -- 0.987 ( 25 AB )
Seems like a decent bench to me. Short, though. I geuss LaForest will be gone if Barrett comes back.
Relief Corp
Overall the Padres have a strong bullpen, as they have all year. The win-loss record of the pen is still sort of middling, at 25-22. One would think such a strong 'pen wouldn't have so many losses. In comparison, the Dodgers 'pen is 22-13.
7+ K per game
name -- throwing arm -- ERA
Heath Justin Bell -- right -- 2.36
Kevin John Cameron -- right -- 1.42
Wilfredo Jose Ledezma -- left -- 5.68
Bell is the Padres' best reliever, and their primary set-up man. Ledezma may get the start Friday.
6-7 K per game
Trevor William Hoffman -- right -- 2.63
Olise Claborne Meredith -- right -- 3.53
4-6 K per game
Justin Michael Hampson -- left -- 3.21
Joseph Thatcher -- left -- 0.00 ( 5 IP )
Starting Pitching
Chris Young is making his return to the rotation tonight against the Snakes. Friday's starter for the Padres is still undetermined. It could be Ledezma, or maybe Hampson, or maybe they would call up Jack Cassel from AAA Portland. Wells goes for the Dodgers on Friday.
Jake Peavy pitches Saturday against Derek Lowe, and Justin Germano pitches Sunday against Chad Billingsley.
If Wells can rediscover his Petco magic, the Dodgers may have a slight advantage Friday. The Padres should have the edge Saturday, and the Dodgers should again be slightly favored on Sunday. This series will be low-scoring baseball at it's finest! More on each matchup the day of each game.
The Dodgers start a critical 3 game series against the Padres in Petco Park in San Diego tomorrow. Depending on the result of tonight's Padres-Diamondback game, the Dodgers will either be 3 or 4 games back of the Padres going into the series. Winning the series with the Padres will be essential; sweeping would be divine.
Here is the lineup the Padres have used the past three days, along with Petco OPS:
B Giles -- 0.735
Cameron -- 0.738
Bradley -- 1.023
Gonzalez -- 0.727
Greene -- 0.648
Kouzmanoff -- 0.646
Bard -- 0.568
Blum -- 0.822
Petco is just a really tough place to hit. The Padres have a team OPS of 0.770 on the road, 0.677 at home. This is not a bad offensive team, but at home they look like one.
Milton Obelle Bradley -- LF
age: 29
bats: switch
0.342 -- 0.443 -- 0.640
The above stats are only from his games in San Diego. When healthy, he's been spectacular for the Padres. Unfortunately for them, he's having his usual trouble staying in the lineup. He's played in just 32 of 54 games since the Padres acquired him. He started his tenure with the Padres on the DL with the oblique injury that scuttled the trade sending him to the Royals, and then he was out for a few weeks in early August with a strained right hamstring. He seems to be healthy now, but he could go down at any moment. Even though he's apparently fully healthy I give him about a 20% chance of missing time this weekend with a new or re-aggravated injury.
That seems high, right? Well, he's been on the DL 4 times this year, and when he missed almost two weeks in August he apparently didn't go on the DL, so that's 5 separate injury stints this year. He's played 51 games this year, so by a naive reckoning he has about a 10% chance of being injured in any given game he plays in. His chance of getting through tonight's game with the Snakes and then all three Dodger games without injury is 0.9 to the fourth power, which is about 0.66. According to this admittedly crude method, Bradley actually has a one third chance of missing time this weekend. Maybe 20% is a conservative estimate!
The Padres are hoping he's over his fragile phase for this season, at least. I wonder if they'll want him back next year? He's been such a good hitter this year for them --- he even has a 1.023 OPS in Petco so far. This is a small sample size, of course, made even smaller because of his injury problems. The problem with a player who only plays in half your games is that no matter how good he is when in the lineup, his replacement likely isn't very good, so you average out to something less than you were hoping. If Bradley puts up a 0.900 OPS for half of 2008, and his fourth outfielder injury replacement puts up a 0.700 OPS, then you're left with on average an 0.800 OPS in a corner outfield spot. It's probably better to just go after a durable 0.820 OPS kind of guy than someone like Bradley.
And that's a shame because Bradley is such an exciting player. But who knows, maybe he'll be mostly healthy next year. If so, I hope it's not with the Padres! Bradley shows no signs of wearing out his welcome in San Diego yet. If the usual pattern holds his team will tire of him after two years.
Whatever the future holds for Bradley and the Padres, the fact is that he's healthy now, and mashing the ball. He's probably the best hitter coming into this big weekend series. He's not striking out very much, about 14% of the time with the Padres, and with them he's hitting a home run every 11 or 12 at bats.
Adrian Gonzalez -- 1B
age: 25
bats: left
0.279 -- 0.347 -- 0.491
The Padres' Gonzo has 23 home runs and 37 doubles. He's certainly capable of hitting the long fly ball. After a July and June swoon he's been hitting well again in August, with a 0.989 OPS. Bradley bats third, he bats fourth. That's a brutal pair to have to face in the middle of the lineup. Forget about Broxton being the eighth inning guy --- I think Broxton needs to come in whenever these two are going to be up late in a close game. Leave the Blums and Bards to the likes of Beimel and Proctor instead.
Gonzalez isn't as interesting as Bradley because he's never injured. I give him a 1% chance of missing time this weekend.
Brian Stephen Giles -- RF
age: 36
bats: left
0.298 -- 0.383 -- 0.432
Giles has rediscovered his power stroke! Giles has just two home runs through July, a shocking total from the man who averaged just over 37 a year over a 4 year stretch in Pittsburgh. It's true that his power has been steadily decreasing ever since he came to San Diego, but still ... 2? Well, no more. He's hit 6 home runs in August, to take his total to 8. And may it stay there for awhile. Giles has an OPS of 0.979 in August. Does every stinkin' Padres hitter have to be blazing hot? Maybe all that heat will screw with Bradley's hamstring ...
Now, Giles still only has 1 home run in Petco. So the main thing with him is still just to keep him off the bases. Don't walk him. He's the Padre leadoff hitter these days, and it would be tragic if he got on base in front of Bradley and Gonzalez too often.
Michael Terrance Cameron -- CF
age: 34
bats: right
0.255 -- 0.335 -- 0.452
Cameron has been very hot and cold this year. In August he's been --- guess what? --- hot. Of course. OPS of 0.923 in August. I bet even the Padres pitchers have OPS's above 0.900 in August. Fortunately the Saturday and Sunday games are in September! So all of the hot August hitters will suddenly have to rebuild their hotness from zero in a brand new month. That's how it works, right?
Cameron's weakness is strikeouts. He typically bats second, so it's going to be important for the Dodger pitchers to make him a non-factor in this series.
Khalil Thabit Greene -- SS
age: 27
bats: right
0.248 -- 0.285 -- 0.451
If the Padres are smart, and unfortunately they often are, they will look hard for a shortstop replacement next year. Thabit has turned into a bad habit in the Padre lineup. He's making way too many outs. He does have more home runs than anyone on the Dodgers, but he has a worse OBP than Juan Pierre. He doesn't walk a lot. The Dodger pitchers really need to make him prove that he'll take a pitch out of the strike zone before they challenge him.
Michael Patrick Barrett -- C
age: 30
bats: right
0.248 -- 0.286 -- 0.381
I don't understand why the Padres wanted him. Yes, he put up good numbers in Chicago the last three years. But this year he's falling off, and it may be more than just bad luck for a 30 year old catcher. He's been even worse since he left the Cubs for the Padres. There's also his bad team chemistry issues. I normally don't care too much about team chemistry, but I make an exception for catchers. Don't they need to at least get along with their pitchers? How soon until he and known hot-head Peavy get into a fight?
Bard has been better this year, which has worked out just fine for the Padres while Barrett has been out from a concussion. But Barrett is on a rehab assignment right now, and may come back sometimes in the series with the Dodgers. I'm guessing he might play in one game, maybe Saturday. Does a fight with Peavy loom? Probably not.
Joshua David Bard -- C
age: 29
bats: switch
0.268 -- 0.351 -- 0.381
Bard has some gnarly home-away OPS splits. 0.569 v 0.901. His left v right splits are as strong: 1.006 v 0.633. Good thing Wells isn't facing him away from Petco, eh? Bottom line is the Dodgers pitchers ( except for maybe Wells ) can look forward to getting a lot of outs from the catcher, whoever he is.
Kevin Kouzmanoff -- 3B
age: 26
bats: right
0.243 -- 0.296 -- 0.422
Only 23 walks, with 82 strikeouts. Maybe he's not the long-term answer at third base. It's not as if he's only 22 or 23. Future utility infielder? One can say that his year-long stats are being dragged down by his hideous April, and that's true, but since his good May he hasn't had a month where he cracked an 0.800 OPS yet. It is too early to give up on him, though.
Third base is another weak offensive position for the Padres. They do well in the outfield and at first base, but everywhere else they make too many outs. One big difference between the Padres and Dodgers is that the Padres weak hitters do tend to hit a fair number of home runs. Kouzmanoff is no exception, with 14. Who are the weak hitters on the Dodgers? Pierre, Nomar, ( when healthy ) Furcal ( borderline ) ... none of them hit home runs.
Geoffry Edward Blum -- 2B
age: 34
bats: switch
0.249 -- 0.318 -- 0.354
While Marcus Giles is on the DL with a knee injury, Blum is the regular second baseman. Maybe Blum should be the regular at second anyway --- as bad as his stats look, they're better than Marcus'. And he does well in Petco!
Blum is the exception to the Padres bad hitter rule, as he only has 3 home runs on the year. I've now gone through the likely Padre starters this weekend, and the bottom of the lineup looks pretty bad. The Dodgers have more lineup depth, with fewer low OBP hitters. The Dodgers can't match the combination of Bradley and Gonzalez, though. ( yet --- Eithier, Kemp and Loney are on their way ) The Padres have more power, and their overall offensive stats are skewed by playing half their games in Petco.
Bench
Name -- batting side -- position -- OPS
Terrmel Sledge -- left -- OF -- 0.700
Craig Leo Stansberry -- right -- IF -- 3 AB
Morgan Paul Ensberg -- right -- IF -- 0.724
Robert William Mackowiak -- left -- OF -- 0.728
Pierre-Luc LaForest -- left -- C -- 0.987 ( 25 AB )
Seems like a decent bench to me. Short, though. I geuss LaForest will be gone if Barrett comes back.
Relief Corp
Overall the Padres have a strong bullpen, as they have all year. The win-loss record of the pen is still sort of middling, at 25-22. One would think such a strong 'pen wouldn't have so many losses. In comparison, the Dodgers 'pen is 22-13.
7+ K per game
name -- throwing arm -- ERA
Heath Justin Bell -- right -- 2.36
Kevin John Cameron -- right -- 1.42
Wilfredo Jose Ledezma -- left -- 5.68
Bell is the Padres' best reliever, and their primary set-up man. Ledezma may get the start Friday.
6-7 K per game
Trevor William Hoffman -- right -- 2.63
Olise Claborne Meredith -- right -- 3.53
4-6 K per game
Justin Michael Hampson -- left -- 3.21
Joseph Thatcher -- left -- 0.00 ( 5 IP )
Starting Pitching
Chris Young is making his return to the rotation tonight against the Snakes. Friday's starter for the Padres is still undetermined. It could be Ledezma, or maybe Hampson, or maybe they would call up Jack Cassel from AAA Portland. Wells goes for the Dodgers on Friday.
Jake Peavy pitches Saturday against Derek Lowe, and Justin Germano pitches Sunday against Chad Billingsley.
If Wells can rediscover his Petco magic, the Dodgers may have a slight advantage Friday. The Padres should have the edge Saturday, and the Dodgers should again be slightly favored on Sunday. This series will be low-scoring baseball at it's finest! More on each matchup the day of each game.
29 August 2007
Oh Me of Little Faith
by Joshua Worley
If I didn't think the Dodgers would win when down 6-3 ( as I declared in my last post ) what did I think when they were down 8-3? I was the equivalent of Nick Van Exel shouting "Cancun!" in the pre-game huddle with the Lakers down 3 games to none against Utah in the 1998 NBA playoffs. ( This story comes from Shaq's autobiography --- apologies if he was making it up. ) I was mentally checking out on the season --- oh, I would have come back by Friday, I always do.
It's just one game, right? They're all just one game though. All the one games add up. And dammit it's so good to be happy concerning the Dodgers over the next two days, to not have to try to figure out what results in the next two Padre-Snake games hurt the Dodgers the least. The Dodgers are gaining a game on one of those teams now; that's what matters.
So many players were heroic, from Dodgers loathed to Dodgers loved. I can't stand Hillenbrand but he was probably the biggest hero, certainly in timing if nothing else. I love Kemp and Martin and they came up huge. I hope Martin's early home run won't be overlooked. I didn't think Proctor had it in him to pitch three scoreless, and he really didn't, but luck, and the double play, are a pitcher's best friends.
I leave this game full of optimism for the Dodgers this weekend, and full of dismay at the decisions Grady Little has been making lately. He seems to be slowly losing his mind. Loney bunting? I think I'd rather see Ramon Martinez hit for him! ( Not that this was an option at the time Loney bunted. ) Proctor pitching a third inning, and continuing to pitch that inning past the point when he was clearly gassed? I'd rather see Hernandez than a third inning from Proctor, honestly.
I should really change the title of this piece, to something about the team, and not about the self-absorbed blogger. But I have to call myself to task for saying the game was lost in the fifth inning, and I do find the whole question of when one gives up fascinating. I don't believe in momentum for teams, but I do believe in momentum for a fan's emotion. When I started that last post the Dodgers were in the process of scoring a run, so I was almost confident that they could come back, but when I finished it up they had just given up a run, so my optimism of a few paragraphs previous was gone and I schizophrenically ended it with a proclamation of doom. When I read that post again it's like two different people wrote it.
That's how today's game feels, that two different teams played it, or that it was two different games. It doesn't seem that the game that featured Penny's meltdown is the same one that featured Proctor's scary third inning. But they were the same. What a sport. I love baseball.
If I didn't think the Dodgers would win when down 6-3 ( as I declared in my last post ) what did I think when they were down 8-3? I was the equivalent of Nick Van Exel shouting "Cancun!" in the pre-game huddle with the Lakers down 3 games to none against Utah in the 1998 NBA playoffs. ( This story comes from Shaq's autobiography --- apologies if he was making it up. ) I was mentally checking out on the season --- oh, I would have come back by Friday, I always do.
It's just one game, right? They're all just one game though. All the one games add up. And dammit it's so good to be happy concerning the Dodgers over the next two days, to not have to try to figure out what results in the next two Padre-Snake games hurt the Dodgers the least. The Dodgers are gaining a game on one of those teams now; that's what matters.
So many players were heroic, from Dodgers loathed to Dodgers loved. I can't stand Hillenbrand but he was probably the biggest hero, certainly in timing if nothing else. I love Kemp and Martin and they came up huge. I hope Martin's early home run won't be overlooked. I didn't think Proctor had it in him to pitch three scoreless, and he really didn't, but luck, and the double play, are a pitcher's best friends.
I leave this game full of optimism for the Dodgers this weekend, and full of dismay at the decisions Grady Little has been making lately. He seems to be slowly losing his mind. Loney bunting? I think I'd rather see Ramon Martinez hit for him! ( Not that this was an option at the time Loney bunted. ) Proctor pitching a third inning, and continuing to pitch that inning past the point when he was clearly gassed? I'd rather see Hernandez than a third inning from Proctor, honestly.
I should really change the title of this piece, to something about the team, and not about the self-absorbed blogger. But I have to call myself to task for saying the game was lost in the fifth inning, and I do find the whole question of when one gives up fascinating. I don't believe in momentum for teams, but I do believe in momentum for a fan's emotion. When I started that last post the Dodgers were in the process of scoring a run, so I was almost confident that they could come back, but when I finished it up they had just given up a run, so my optimism of a few paragraphs previous was gone and I schizophrenically ended it with a proclamation of doom. When I read that post again it's like two different people wrote it.
That's how today's game feels, that two different teams played it, or that it was two different games. It doesn't seem that the game that featured Penny's meltdown is the same one that featured Proctor's scary third inning. But they were the same. What a sport. I love baseball.
Penny Lays an Egg
by Joshua Worley
I'm watching my computer screen, hoping for the blue circle to show up on retro-gameday, with the caption "in play, run(s)". Even if it happens, though, The Dodgers will still trail by 2. It's the bottom of the fourth inning, with the Dodgers down 5-2. Oh hey, it just happened! Run scoring play on Loney's single. Now 5-3, Dodgers trail.
A couple of days ago, back when the Dodgers were down 4-2 because of three home runs given up by Derek Lowe, I briefly lamented that Lowe had picked a bad time to have a stinky start. Which brought up the question: when would it be a good time for him to have a bad start? The Dodgers can't afford to lose many more games. If anything, it was a good time for him to have a bad start, if he had to have one, because the Nats were a team the Dodgers could come back against. Could, and can come back against. And they did, and maybe they still will today.
So I'm back to where I was two days ago, lamenting a bad start by a usually reliable Dodger hurler. Again though, if it had to happen, maybe now is the time. Because this game is not yet lost. The only problem is that if the Dodgers don't come back to win today, then the Padre series looks like a must sweep, and that's not going to happen. Even if the Dodgers could win 2 of 3 this weekend, which would truly be an admirable result, they'd still be treading water, hanging around at 3 or 4 games out of the playoffs.
You know what Penny is missing today? Foul balls. Especially in the first few innings. The first seven batters all took 3 or fewer pitches for their at bats to reach conclusion. That's just not like Penny at all. It's usually difficult to hit one of his pitches into play, let alone square on. The misses and near-misses on swings just aren't coming as often as they should. Penny just had his first strikeout of the game to end the fifth inning. His first and should be his last, as he just gave up his sixth run.
Penny's habit of inducing lots of fouls and the resulting marathon at bats often drives me nuts. But it's worth remembering that a pitcher who induces a lot of foul balls isn't easy to hit. If the fouls disappear because they are becoming swings and misses, that's a good thing. But if the fouls disappear because they are becoming squarely hit balls, then it's a very bad thing. The pitcher is getting ready to lay a very foul egg and likely ruin the game.
The Dodgers trail 6-3 at the end of 5 innings. No comeback today, I fear. Penny's egg is about to hatch, and it's going to be a loss.
I'm watching my computer screen, hoping for the blue circle to show up on retro-gameday, with the caption "in play, run(s)". Even if it happens, though, The Dodgers will still trail by 2. It's the bottom of the fourth inning, with the Dodgers down 5-2. Oh hey, it just happened! Run scoring play on Loney's single. Now 5-3, Dodgers trail.
A couple of days ago, back when the Dodgers were down 4-2 because of three home runs given up by Derek Lowe, I briefly lamented that Lowe had picked a bad time to have a stinky start. Which brought up the question: when would it be a good time for him to have a bad start? The Dodgers can't afford to lose many more games. If anything, it was a good time for him to have a bad start, if he had to have one, because the Nats were a team the Dodgers could come back against. Could, and can come back against. And they did, and maybe they still will today.
So I'm back to where I was two days ago, lamenting a bad start by a usually reliable Dodger hurler. Again though, if it had to happen, maybe now is the time. Because this game is not yet lost. The only problem is that if the Dodgers don't come back to win today, then the Padre series looks like a must sweep, and that's not going to happen. Even if the Dodgers could win 2 of 3 this weekend, which would truly be an admirable result, they'd still be treading water, hanging around at 3 or 4 games out of the playoffs.
You know what Penny is missing today? Foul balls. Especially in the first few innings. The first seven batters all took 3 or fewer pitches for their at bats to reach conclusion. That's just not like Penny at all. It's usually difficult to hit one of his pitches into play, let alone square on. The misses and near-misses on swings just aren't coming as often as they should. Penny just had his first strikeout of the game to end the fifth inning. His first and should be his last, as he just gave up his sixth run.
Penny's habit of inducing lots of fouls and the resulting marathon at bats often drives me nuts. But it's worth remembering that a pitcher who induces a lot of foul balls isn't easy to hit. If the fouls disappear because they are becoming swings and misses, that's a good thing. But if the fouls disappear because they are becoming squarely hit balls, then it's a very bad thing. The pitcher is getting ready to lay a very foul egg and likely ruin the game.
The Dodgers trail 6-3 at the end of 5 innings. No comeback today, I fear. Penny's egg is about to hatch, and it's going to be a loss.
Comfort and Ignorance
by Joshua Worley
There is something very relaxing about watching the Dodgers play the Nationals. These are among the most comfortable one-run games I've ever seen. The Nationals aren't awful, because they do have some good players, but there just aren't enough of them. Even when they were ahead Monday, or came back to tie the game Tuesday, Dodger victory still seemed, not quite inevitable, but very likely. When you're suddenly facing Ray King in a tie game, you have to like your chances after all. The Dodgers are a flawed team, but when they play the Nats they are clearly the superior team on the field. That's a very good thing when the two teams ahead of them are playing each other down south. Every Dodger win is a game gained on either the Padres or the Snakes. Right now the Dodgers are a combined 8 games behind the two front-runners. That sure seems like a lot, but as long as that number keeps coming down everything is fine.
It's imperative that the Dodgers finish off the sweep today, because if they don't they will only have gained a single game on the Padres and Snakes combined, which just isn't enough progress, especially given that the Padres have been winning. That, by the way, completely changes the nature of the chase the Dodgers are attempting. Two days ago they were after the Padres only. The Snakes were well out of reach, and in any case the Padres were the much closer target. But unless the Snakes win the last two games of their series with the Padres, these two teams will be separated by just a game in the standings, and the Dodgers will be just as likely to catch one as the other. The head-to-head matchups loom large, of course. Six games left with each of San Diego and Arizona, and at worst you need to go 3-3. But maybe just as important are the 6 left with a bad team like the Giants. Go 5-1 or even 6-0 and you can make up a lot of ground.
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Dodger Thoughts and True Blue LA had some interesting posts about baseball general managers in general, and about Ned Colletti and just fired Tim Purpura in specific. I realized after reading these that over the past ten years I've become much more aware of what the Dodger General Manager is doing. With awareness comes thought, and opinions, and pain. Pain for when I don't agree with what the general manager is doing, when it seems to me and many other people that the GM is hurting the team.
For this reason I think becoming aware of the GM has interfered with my enjoyment of baseball. I was happier back when player acquisition and development was murky and magical. The play of the team was the only things that mattered. Isn't that the way it should be? It's about the well-defined game between the lines, not the ill-defined game played on telephone lines.
I'm older now, better able to understand and evaluate what a GM does, and there's more coverage of GMs now than when I was a young fan in the 1980's. There's more coverage of everything in sports, really. Trades have always made sense, of course, but back in the mid 80's free agency was rather mysterious and didn't seem very important, anyway. That's probably because of the collusion that was going on then! I couldn't have named the Dodger GM to save my life, nor told you what he did. If there was a trade or signing, it was always "the Dodgers" who did it. The team was in effect sentient, and if not infallible then at least not a suitable target for criticism. I had no awareness of Al Campanis's Nightline tumble. Fred Claire was the first Dodger GM I became vaguely aware of. It wasn't until Paul DePodesta that I finally started following what the Dodger GM did closely.
It sure seems that I'm advocating an unnatural state of blissful ignorance, doesn't it? I suppose I am, in this one narrow case. Most other advances in my baseball knowledge have made baseball more fun, such as understanding advanced stats. But unless I'm free to choose my favorite team based on the best GM, I'd rather not be aware of all the maddening things GMs do. And I'm not free to choose my team --- I'm a Dodger fan for life. Of course there's no going back. Now that I know that the Dodger GM is important to the present and future of the team, I have to be aware of what he ( or future she ) does. Ignorance can only be blissful when it's not willful.
The twist is that there is so much about what a GM does I don't know. I see the results of a GM's maneuvers, as well as the rumours and speculations about what they might do, and from that I think I understand what his options were, what decisions he was faced with. But I don't think I ever understand the full nature of a GM's decision. There's a lot behind the scenes that us fans never know about.
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Matt Kemp made another baserunning blunder last night. If he hadn't tried to steal second, the infallible Russell Martin wouldn't have been caught off third base. Also, Matt Kemp personally juiced the ball that Tony Batista hit for a home run! He's out of control!
There is something very relaxing about watching the Dodgers play the Nationals. These are among the most comfortable one-run games I've ever seen. The Nationals aren't awful, because they do have some good players, but there just aren't enough of them. Even when they were ahead Monday, or came back to tie the game Tuesday, Dodger victory still seemed, not quite inevitable, but very likely. When you're suddenly facing Ray King in a tie game, you have to like your chances after all. The Dodgers are a flawed team, but when they play the Nats they are clearly the superior team on the field. That's a very good thing when the two teams ahead of them are playing each other down south. Every Dodger win is a game gained on either the Padres or the Snakes. Right now the Dodgers are a combined 8 games behind the two front-runners. That sure seems like a lot, but as long as that number keeps coming down everything is fine.
It's imperative that the Dodgers finish off the sweep today, because if they don't they will only have gained a single game on the Padres and Snakes combined, which just isn't enough progress, especially given that the Padres have been winning. That, by the way, completely changes the nature of the chase the Dodgers are attempting. Two days ago they were after the Padres only. The Snakes were well out of reach, and in any case the Padres were the much closer target. But unless the Snakes win the last two games of their series with the Padres, these two teams will be separated by just a game in the standings, and the Dodgers will be just as likely to catch one as the other. The head-to-head matchups loom large, of course. Six games left with each of San Diego and Arizona, and at worst you need to go 3-3. But maybe just as important are the 6 left with a bad team like the Giants. Go 5-1 or even 6-0 and you can make up a lot of ground.
********************************************
Dodger Thoughts and True Blue LA had some interesting posts about baseball general managers in general, and about Ned Colletti and just fired Tim Purpura in specific. I realized after reading these that over the past ten years I've become much more aware of what the Dodger General Manager is doing. With awareness comes thought, and opinions, and pain. Pain for when I don't agree with what the general manager is doing, when it seems to me and many other people that the GM is hurting the team.
For this reason I think becoming aware of the GM has interfered with my enjoyment of baseball. I was happier back when player acquisition and development was murky and magical. The play of the team was the only things that mattered. Isn't that the way it should be? It's about the well-defined game between the lines, not the ill-defined game played on telephone lines.
I'm older now, better able to understand and evaluate what a GM does, and there's more coverage of GMs now than when I was a young fan in the 1980's. There's more coverage of everything in sports, really. Trades have always made sense, of course, but back in the mid 80's free agency was rather mysterious and didn't seem very important, anyway. That's probably because of the collusion that was going on then! I couldn't have named the Dodger GM to save my life, nor told you what he did. If there was a trade or signing, it was always "the Dodgers" who did it. The team was in effect sentient, and if not infallible then at least not a suitable target for criticism. I had no awareness of Al Campanis's Nightline tumble. Fred Claire was the first Dodger GM I became vaguely aware of. It wasn't until Paul DePodesta that I finally started following what the Dodger GM did closely.
It sure seems that I'm advocating an unnatural state of blissful ignorance, doesn't it? I suppose I am, in this one narrow case. Most other advances in my baseball knowledge have made baseball more fun, such as understanding advanced stats. But unless I'm free to choose my favorite team based on the best GM, I'd rather not be aware of all the maddening things GMs do. And I'm not free to choose my team --- I'm a Dodger fan for life. Of course there's no going back. Now that I know that the Dodger GM is important to the present and future of the team, I have to be aware of what he ( or future she ) does. Ignorance can only be blissful when it's not willful.
The twist is that there is so much about what a GM does I don't know. I see the results of a GM's maneuvers, as well as the rumours and speculations about what they might do, and from that I think I understand what his options were, what decisions he was faced with. But I don't think I ever understand the full nature of a GM's decision. There's a lot behind the scenes that us fans never know about.
********************************************
Matt Kemp made another baserunning blunder last night. If he hadn't tried to steal second, the infallible Russell Martin wouldn't have been caught off third base. Also, Matt Kemp personally juiced the ball that Tony Batista hit for a home run! He's out of control!
27 August 2007
The Dodger Dream for the Week Ahead
by Joshua Worley
The mouse that roared, eh? Wow, one game out of three against the mighty Mets. Heck, the Dodgers played them to a standstill in terms of runs scored, 11-11. Too bad they don't award post-season berths based on run differential. Good job surviving the Ruthian Roulette with Wells, though.
The Dodgers are 3.5 back of the Padres for the wild card, with the Phillies 3 back, the Braves 4 back, and the Rockies also 3.5 back. With the Dodgers being in a near tie for second, at this point it's basically all about catching the Padres, as I predicted about a week ago in my wild card speculations. If the Dodgers play well enough to pass the Padres they'll probably move out ahead of the other teams as well. Catching the Padres isn't something anyone should count on happening, but it could happen.
The Padres have 4 with Arizona starting today. Now this is very interesting, because the Padres are only 3 out in the NL West and if they won three out of four they would be just a game back of the Snakes. On the other hand, if the Padres were to say lose 3 of 4, then the Dodgers could pull within a game of them with a sweep of the Nats, whom they start a 3 game series with today. The Nats are not pushovers, but they still have to be counted as one of the easier teams to sweep in the NL. A team struggling to stay in contention would be well advised to sweep the Nats, as the Rockies just did. The Dodgers even have their three best pitchers going in this series. A sweep will be just the thing heading into this weekend's huge three game set with the Padres.
Yep, the Dodgers get a shot at the Padres this weekend. Getting swept by the Padres would basically end the season. It's a series win the Dodgers will need, at least. A lot will depend on how this week goes: if the Dodgers can sweep the Nats then they don't need to feel like they have to sweep the Padres. Which is good, since they really probably won't. The series will be in Petco. I'm sort of guessing that the Dodgers will skip Stults and go with Wells in the series opener if they can. With the day off before the series they ought to skip someone, so that Lowe and Billingsley can pitch the final two games against the Padres. One of the knocks against Wells was that he's been awful away from Petco this year, but the Friday start would be in Petco. For one shining start the acquisition would sort of make sense!
Speaking of Wells, how strange is it that he's spent all year trying to help the Padres, and now he's trying to hurt them? In their hearts I think a lot of players have to know that ultimately they are playing for themselves. In a larger sense it really is an individual game. You can talk about the team being the most important thing all you want, but it surely wouldn't make sense in connection with Wells. He's just trying to excel at his profession and make a few more bucks, all while living in Southern California. What could be better? Never mind that he pitches for separate bitter wild card rivals while he's doing it. Padres, Dodgers, whatever. Whoever is willing to give him the ball.
Who does pitch for the Padres in the big weekend series? At the moment it appears that it will be Peavy, Germano, and Stauffer. The Padres don't have an off day to play with, and in any case they probably view the series against the Snakes as more important than the one against the Dodgers. The wild card here is when Chris Young might come back. The Padres don't have anyone currently scheduled in for Thursday, so maybe he would start then if ready. I'm sure they'd also like to prevent Stauffer from getting another start as well, but the truth is the Padres starting pitching has become awfully thin after Peavy and Maddux. Maybe they should have made Wells rest for a few weeks instead of releasing him! I'm sure the Padres would rather take 2 runs in 5 innings than the stink bomb Stauffer produced yesterday.
Marcus Giles has gone on the DL, by the way. I'm sure this will hurt the Padres as much as losing Nomar Garciaparra has hurt the Dodgers. Over the last week the Padres have 6 red-hot regulars: Gonzalez, Bradley, Cameron, Bard, Greene, and Kouzmanoff. All have an OPS of at least 0.973 in the last week. Bradley is healthy again, while Gonzalez has carried the team all August. I'm not looking forward to seeing either of those guys this weekend.
Let's say that the Padres and Snakes split their 4 games. If the Dodgers can sweep the Nats and take two of three from the Padres, then they'd end up just a game back of the Padres next Monday morning. So that's the dream for the coming week. Near-perfection is what you need when you're 3.5 games out of a playoff spot.
After this week the Dodgers have three games left with the Padres, at Dodger Stadium. By that time I hope it's the Padres desperately needing to win the series. We'll see.
The mouse that roared, eh? Wow, one game out of three against the mighty Mets. Heck, the Dodgers played them to a standstill in terms of runs scored, 11-11. Too bad they don't award post-season berths based on run differential. Good job surviving the Ruthian Roulette with Wells, though.
The Dodgers are 3.5 back of the Padres for the wild card, with the Phillies 3 back, the Braves 4 back, and the Rockies also 3.5 back. With the Dodgers being in a near tie for second, at this point it's basically all about catching the Padres, as I predicted about a week ago in my wild card speculations. If the Dodgers play well enough to pass the Padres they'll probably move out ahead of the other teams as well. Catching the Padres isn't something anyone should count on happening, but it could happen.
The Padres have 4 with Arizona starting today. Now this is very interesting, because the Padres are only 3 out in the NL West and if they won three out of four they would be just a game back of the Snakes. On the other hand, if the Padres were to say lose 3 of 4, then the Dodgers could pull within a game of them with a sweep of the Nats, whom they start a 3 game series with today. The Nats are not pushovers, but they still have to be counted as one of the easier teams to sweep in the NL. A team struggling to stay in contention would be well advised to sweep the Nats, as the Rockies just did. The Dodgers even have their three best pitchers going in this series. A sweep will be just the thing heading into this weekend's huge three game set with the Padres.
Yep, the Dodgers get a shot at the Padres this weekend. Getting swept by the Padres would basically end the season. It's a series win the Dodgers will need, at least. A lot will depend on how this week goes: if the Dodgers can sweep the Nats then they don't need to feel like they have to sweep the Padres. Which is good, since they really probably won't. The series will be in Petco. I'm sort of guessing that the Dodgers will skip Stults and go with Wells in the series opener if they can. With the day off before the series they ought to skip someone, so that Lowe and Billingsley can pitch the final two games against the Padres. One of the knocks against Wells was that he's been awful away from Petco this year, but the Friday start would be in Petco. For one shining start the acquisition would sort of make sense!
Speaking of Wells, how strange is it that he's spent all year trying to help the Padres, and now he's trying to hurt them? In their hearts I think a lot of players have to know that ultimately they are playing for themselves. In a larger sense it really is an individual game. You can talk about the team being the most important thing all you want, but it surely wouldn't make sense in connection with Wells. He's just trying to excel at his profession and make a few more bucks, all while living in Southern California. What could be better? Never mind that he pitches for separate bitter wild card rivals while he's doing it. Padres, Dodgers, whatever. Whoever is willing to give him the ball.
Who does pitch for the Padres in the big weekend series? At the moment it appears that it will be Peavy, Germano, and Stauffer. The Padres don't have an off day to play with, and in any case they probably view the series against the Snakes as more important than the one against the Dodgers. The wild card here is when Chris Young might come back. The Padres don't have anyone currently scheduled in for Thursday, so maybe he would start then if ready. I'm sure they'd also like to prevent Stauffer from getting another start as well, but the truth is the Padres starting pitching has become awfully thin after Peavy and Maddux. Maybe they should have made Wells rest for a few weeks instead of releasing him! I'm sure the Padres would rather take 2 runs in 5 innings than the stink bomb Stauffer produced yesterday.
Marcus Giles has gone on the DL, by the way. I'm sure this will hurt the Padres as much as losing Nomar Garciaparra has hurt the Dodgers. Over the last week the Padres have 6 red-hot regulars: Gonzalez, Bradley, Cameron, Bard, Greene, and Kouzmanoff. All have an OPS of at least 0.973 in the last week. Bradley is healthy again, while Gonzalez has carried the team all August. I'm not looking forward to seeing either of those guys this weekend.
Let's say that the Padres and Snakes split their 4 games. If the Dodgers can sweep the Nats and take two of three from the Padres, then they'd end up just a game back of the Padres next Monday morning. So that's the dream for the coming week. Near-perfection is what you need when you're 3.5 games out of a playoff spot.
After this week the Dodgers have three games left with the Padres, at Dodger Stadium. By that time I hope it's the Padres desperately needing to win the series. We'll see.
24 August 2007
Mets Preview: A Woodland Mets-aphor
by Joshua Worley
The Dodgers are like small helpless field mice entering the concrete and steel forest of New York City. Many dangerous animals and birds are waiting to pounce on them and gobble them up. It will be a battle for survival for the timid mouse-like Dodgers.
David Wright --- The Fox
He's fast and wiry, strong and cunning. This is the most dangerous animal the Dodgers are likely to encounter. You can't stop the fox --- you can only hope to contain him.
Jose Reyes --- The Ferret
He kills with stealth, stealing into the mouse burrow when the sleeping mice least expect it. He disrupts everything the Dodger-mice want to do. The only hope is to keep him at home.
Carlos Delgado --- The Sleepy Bear
Look, if they're careful and smart, the Dodger mice should be able to avoid getting maimed or eaten by this past-his-prime lazy bear. But if they are unwary, and get too close, he can do as much damage as any of the Mets woodland predators.
Moises Alou --- The Old Badger
The Dodger mice underestimate the tough old badger at their peril. Recently recovered from an illness, his teeth are as strong as ever and if they let him get too close he'll tear them to shreds.
Carlos Beltran --- The Wolf
Though the Fox is overall the most dangerous land animal hunting the Dodger mice, the Wolf is perhaps the most devastating if he gets hold of them.
Luis Castillo --- The Migrant Porcupine
A recent addition to the forest, he won't eat the Dodger mice or bother them much. But if a Dodger mouse is unwary and wanders too close he will be stuck full of quills. There is almost no danger of getting eaten, though.
Lastings Milledge --- The Young Stoat
Someday he may be a ferocious killer, but presently he's just as likely to fall out of a tree than to successfully swarm down the trunk and execute a perfect attack on a hapless Dodger-mouse.
Shawn Green --- The Snake of Uncertain Type
He's probably a harmless grass snake, but maybe he's dangerous. He might not even show up around the forest very much, especially if the Young Stoat is about.
Paul LoDuca --- The Sick Wild Dog
He is sick and will not be a threat to the Dodger mice. He was once a tame dog and a friend to the Dodger mice, before being sent off to the wilds.
Mike DiFelice --- The Billy Goat
This is a completely harmless creature, unless a Dodger-mouse is foolish enough to be trod upon by him. The Goat wandered up from New Orleans when it heard the wild dog was sick.
Even though the Eagle ( Pedro Martinez ) is sick, the Dodgers will still face a formidable set of birds of prey, any of which can swoop from high without warning.
Oliver Perez --- The Hawk
Orlando Hernandez --- The Owl
John Maine --- The Falcon
And then, when a Dodger mouse is near death, the Vulture ( Billy Wagner ) will swoop down to finish it off.
Do the Dodger mice have any chance at all of survival? They may, if the younger, more active mice are sent into the forest of New York. Every edge matters when surrounded by carnivores.
The Dodgers are like small helpless field mice entering the concrete and steel forest of New York City. Many dangerous animals and birds are waiting to pounce on them and gobble them up. It will be a battle for survival for the timid mouse-like Dodgers.
David Wright --- The Fox
He's fast and wiry, strong and cunning. This is the most dangerous animal the Dodgers are likely to encounter. You can't stop the fox --- you can only hope to contain him.
Jose Reyes --- The Ferret
He kills with stealth, stealing into the mouse burrow when the sleeping mice least expect it. He disrupts everything the Dodger-mice want to do. The only hope is to keep him at home.
Carlos Delgado --- The Sleepy Bear
Look, if they're careful and smart, the Dodger mice should be able to avoid getting maimed or eaten by this past-his-prime lazy bear. But if they are unwary, and get too close, he can do as much damage as any of the Mets woodland predators.
Moises Alou --- The Old Badger
The Dodger mice underestimate the tough old badger at their peril. Recently recovered from an illness, his teeth are as strong as ever and if they let him get too close he'll tear them to shreds.
Carlos Beltran --- The Wolf
Though the Fox is overall the most dangerous land animal hunting the Dodger mice, the Wolf is perhaps the most devastating if he gets hold of them.
Luis Castillo --- The Migrant Porcupine
A recent addition to the forest, he won't eat the Dodger mice or bother them much. But if a Dodger mouse is unwary and wanders too close he will be stuck full of quills. There is almost no danger of getting eaten, though.
Lastings Milledge --- The Young Stoat
Someday he may be a ferocious killer, but presently he's just as likely to fall out of a tree than to successfully swarm down the trunk and execute a perfect attack on a hapless Dodger-mouse.
Shawn Green --- The Snake of Uncertain Type
He's probably a harmless grass snake, but maybe he's dangerous. He might not even show up around the forest very much, especially if the Young Stoat is about.
Paul LoDuca --- The Sick Wild Dog
He is sick and will not be a threat to the Dodger mice. He was once a tame dog and a friend to the Dodger mice, before being sent off to the wilds.
Mike DiFelice --- The Billy Goat
This is a completely harmless creature, unless a Dodger-mouse is foolish enough to be trod upon by him. The Goat wandered up from New Orleans when it heard the wild dog was sick.
Even though the Eagle ( Pedro Martinez ) is sick, the Dodgers will still face a formidable set of birds of prey, any of which can swoop from high without warning.
Oliver Perez --- The Hawk
Orlando Hernandez --- The Owl
John Maine --- The Falcon
And then, when a Dodger mouse is near death, the Vulture ( Billy Wagner ) will swoop down to finish it off.
Do the Dodger mice have any chance at all of survival? They may, if the younger, more active mice are sent into the forest of New York. Every edge matters when surrounded by carnivores.
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