29 May 2007

The series sweep that wasn't

By Griffster.

Boy, sometimes things break your way, and sometimes they do not. Remember a few games back, coming off getting swept by the Angels and dropping one to the Brewers? Soft rumblings of discomfort through sections of the fan base:

The offense isn't getting it done.
You can't make a run stand up every game.
You have to score to win.
You're not going to score if you can only hit singles from about 5 spots in the lineup and nothing from the other four.

Then those spinning lineup wheels found some purchase and the Dodgers bounced out of the home stand with two 2-1 series wins.

The wheels found purchase on some extra base hits. You really can't win with a lineup of singles hitters. We are carrying two of those already: Pierre, and 2007 Nomar. 2007 Gonzo is also worryingly singles-like, despite hitting the odd home run.

Speaking of singles and not getting it done, let's break down the past three series by what the Dodgers offense did. In the games against the Angels, here is the sequence of Dodger hits for each game. Innings indicated by spaces between lines, innings with only a walk, or no hits do not show up:

Dodgers

Game 1

single

single

single

double
double ( run scores )

double

Game 2

home run ( run scores )

single
single

walk
single ( run scores, thanks to a steal of second and advance to third on flyout )

double

Game 3

single
single

single

single
double ( run scores )

There is a lot of painfully dangling singles there. Apart from the manufactured run in the second game, the runs that did score scored on extra base hits. The runners stranded were mostly left holding their singles with nothing else to show for it.

That series was atypical, one would hope. Hunting for some context, here is the Angels' hitting sequences for the same series:

Angels

Game 1

walk
double ( run scores )

single
( steals second, advances on ground out, scores on another ground out )

walk
single
sac fly ( run scores )

single
single
single ( run scores )
double ( run scores )
single ( run scores )
single ( runs score )

double
single
sac fly ( run scores )

Game 2

single

( steals second, scores on ground out and error )

home run ( run scores )

single

walk
single
ground out ( run scores )

single
double
double ( runs score )
single ( run scores )

single

single

Game 3

double
single ( run scores )

single

single
single
single
single ( runs score )
single ( run scores )

triple

Does that tell us anything, apart from the fact that the Angels scored more runs because they had a heck of a lot more hits than the Dodgers did? Well, the Angels also had their little dangling singles, and they even had a inning of "single ( that word is starting to look weird now when I type it ) the opponent to death".

It does show that, of the 11 innings in which the Angels scored, they had extra base hits for 6 of those, assists from the opposing team in the form of walks or errors 4 times, and only once they scored on the virtue of singles alone ( and a lot of singles to boot! )

The Dodgers scored in three innings. Two due to an extra base hit in the inning, and once due to a walk, a steal, and two ground outs.

The moral of this story is: unless you have some help from the opposition and some extra base hits, you need a long string of singles to be sure of scoring a run.

That's it for that horrible series. ( Let us never speak of it again! ) Moving on to the next two series, won by the Dodgers, here is the same sequences for the Dodgers and the Brewers:

Dodgers

Game 1

single

double
single ( run scores )
home run ( runs score )

walk
single
single ( run scores )

home run ( run scores )

Game 2

walk
steal
( dropped foul )
single ( run scores )

single

double
home run ( runs score )

Game 3

single
single
hit by pitch
double ( runs score )
single ( run scores )

error
single

double

single
single

double
home run ( run scores )

single
sac bunt

walk
steal
balk
walk
sac fly ( run scores )
single

walk
single

Brewers

Game 1

single

home run ( run scores )

single
double ( run scores )

single

single
walk
single
single ( run scores )
single ( runs score )
double ( runs score )

home run ( run scores )

Game 2

walk
single
single ( run scores )

walk
double ( run scores )

single

Game 3

single

walk
sac bunt
walk

single
ground rule double

double
infield single

infield single to second
ground out
single ( run scores )

Yeah?

Well, the Dodgers scored in 8 innings. Of those eight innings, 5 had extra base hits, and the other three had help from the opposition ( all three had walks, and two also had either an error, or a balk and a sac fly, to help things along ). Not one time was any runs scored on singles alone.

And the Brewers? They scored in 7 innings. 5 of those innings had extra base hits. One of the others had a walk as well, and the other was stringed together on a single, ground out, and single.

How about one more series, the most recent?

Dodgers

Game 1

single
error
walk
single ( run scores )

single
walk
home run ( runs score )

single
walk
double ( runs score )

double
walk

single
single
single
single ( run scores )
wild pitch ( run scores )
walk
single ( run scores )
sac fly ( run scores )

Game 2

single

single
single

double

home run ( run scores )

single
single
single ( run scores )

single
single

Game 3

single

single

single

home run ( run scores )

walk
walk
intentional walk ( 2B open after steal )
hit by pitch ( run scores )

Cubs

Game 1

single

single

single
steal
ground rule double ( run scores )

single
walk
double ( runs score )
double ( run scores )
double ( run scores )
caught stealing ( no runners on )
single
single
single ( run scores )
double ( run scores )
error ( run scores )

Game 2

home run ( run scores )
home run ( run scores )
single
single

double
single ( run scores )
infield single
single ( run scores )

single

single

Game 3

walk
error

single

double
single
wild pitch
walk

single

double

single
single
single ( run scores )

In this series, the Dodgers scored in 8 innings. 4 of those innings had extra base hits. 2 of the remaining innings had walks in them as well. One of those were done entirely on walks and a hit by pitch! And only one had runs score on pure singles.

The Cubs scored in 5 innings. 4 of those innings had extra base hits, the other one was also a pure singles effort.

Moral of the story: you have to do more than hit singles to put up the runs that let you win ballgames. If you have a lineup of aging veterans "that knows how to win" yet mostly hits singles, you're going to struggle to see those veterans do what they know how to do. ( Just had to get that out of my system ) The 2007 Dodgers threaten to resemble a club of singles hitters, and singles hitters do not win games consistently.

There are players young and old on this team who could bring some power to the plate. Whether they do so with fair consistency will determine how often this team wins - provided the pitching remains stellar, else the 2007 Dodgers will be the 2007 Yankees before you could blink.

Now, on to explaining the title of this post. Who should have swept whom?

The ( losing record ) Cubs should have swept the Dodgers, we all know that. But for a huge, happy comeback in game 1 ( a jambalaya of trademarked singles, one wild pitch and a sac fly, it was done the Dodgers way ) and a freebie in game 3, we'd be looking up a two-game ladder at the Padres.

The dog days of summer, they're a-comin'. Swinging into June, the Dodgers have to find a higher notch and kick up into it. The Padres and the Diamondbacks have already done so, and they're up on rung one with us. We sat back on our heels long enough. Time to pull away. ( But no wheelies and mysterious broken wrists, please! )

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