Should Kent swing at that first pitch?

By Griffster

Following on from my previous post, I had a look at the situational stats for a few guys. I left out the hitters that doesn't interest me ( Pierre, Betemit and the handful of bench guys ) and the guys with only a few at bats ( LaRoche ) and picked the ones that should be the meat of the lineup. Here we go:

Russel Martin:

First pitch swinging: 16 at bats, seven hits

AVG OBP SLG
.438 .412 .563

First strike swinging, count 1-0: 15 at bats, six hits

.400 .400 .600

First strike swinging, count 2-0: 4 at bats, two hits

.500 .500 1.000

The 3-0 sample sizes are so tiny that I'm not including them unless they are really interesting. Martin is well-advised to take a hack at the first strike he sees. He bats

.231 .560 .308

from count 3-2, in 13 at bats.

Jeff Kent:

First pitch swinging: 28 at bats, five hits

.179 .172 .429

First strike swinging, count 1-0: 14 at bats, eight hits

.571 .571 1.214

First strike swinging, count 2-0: 4 at bats, four outs

Count 3-2

.154 .476 .154

in thirteen at bats.

Now, this is interesting. Kent is, quite frankly, horrible when swinging at the first pitch. Stop doing that, Kent! When he at least sees a pitch, he does better. Even when that pitch is a strike and not a ball, he's managed six singles in 19 at bats, for a .316 line, which is better than his first pitch swinging record.

Luis Gonzalez:

First pitch swinging: 20 at bats, six hits

.300 .300 .350

First strike swinging, count 1-0: 16 at bats, two hits

.125 .125 .313

First strike swinging, count 2-0: 4 at bats, two hits

Count 3-2

.250 .591 .500

in 12 at bats.

Gonzalez does better swinging at the first pitch than Kent does, but he doesn't do that well swinging at the first strike. Gonzalez is on the decline everywhere, a liability in the field and at the plate ( but hey! He's great in the clubhouse! ). His best bet at this point is to swing at the first pitch, or swing after count 0-1, when he has seven singles from twenty at bats.

Andre Ethier:

First pitch swinging: 18 at bats, six hits

.333 .316 .444

First strike swinging, count 1-0: 12 at bats, three hits

.250 .231 .417

First strike swinging, count 2-0: 4 at bats, four hits

Count 3-2

.250 .538 1.000

in eight at bats.

Ethier does well when he goes first pitch swinging, though he doesn't do it as often as Kent or Gonzalez does. I'd say he's more selective in what he swings at, perhaps. His first strike swinging is a mixed bag.

Rafael Furcal:

First pitch swinging: 18 at bats, eight hits

.444 .444 .444

First strike swinging, count 1-0: 13 at bats, seven hits

.538 .538 .846

First strike swinging, count 2-0: 5 at bats, one hit

Count 3-2

.091 .333 .091

in eleven at bats.

Furcal is a leadoff hitter, so you'd expect him to see some pitches. Yet he still does much better ( like everybody else! ) than Kent when it comes to first pitch swinging. Furcal is worryingly awful trying to swing on the 3-2 count, although he cashes a third of those in for walks. Furcal does best from the 1-0 and 1-1 counts, with 12 hits from 23 at bats.

Nomar Garciaparra:

First pitch swinging: 27 at bats, eleven hits

.407 .407 .444

First strike swinging, count 1-0: 11 at bats, two hits

.182 .167 .182

First strike swinging, count 2-0: 7 at bats, two hits

Count 3-2

.143 .429 .143

in eleven at bats.

Nomar is the quintessential first pitch swinger. And it still works for him. Rock on, Nomar! If only his away batting average of .227 was closer to his home average of .365! At home Nomar gets on base at a lovely .427 clip, too, compared to .265 away.

So, does Kent do badly when he goes first pitch swinging, or what?

Well, actually, it depends. Over the preceding three years, Kent has a line of

.345 .348 .608

when he goes first pitch swinging. That's good! It is just this year that he's fallen off so badly.

Kent likes to go first pitch swinging. Over the last three years, he hit that first pitch 255 times to compile the above line. He hasn't loved any other count more than 0-0. His second favourite, 2-2, is a distant second with 174 times for an iffy .207 batting average.

Historically, Kent is a first pitch swinger stud, even better that Nomar's .336 .350 .556 line. So far this year, he isn't. I hope he works out the kink, because he hurts the team otherwise.

Also go and read the article at the L.A Times if you haven't already. If that's the take on Kent's hitting right out the horse's mouth, it is a lot better than I can do.