01 September 2009

National League Positional Rankings

It's tricky, sometimes, to figure out a team's starter at every position. Not every team has as stable a lineup as the Dodgers. Injury ravaged teams are problematic, as are teams that have fallen out of contention and may be working younger players into the lineup. If a typically starting player is currently on the disabled list then I still listed him as the starter if he only recently went on the DL, even if he might not come back this season, though I think almost all of the disabled players I have listed will be coming back this season. So David Wright is listed as the Met third baseman, while Carlos Beltran is out as the Met center fielder because he's been out for months. When there was no clear starter at a position I just looked at who was playing the most games at that position in the last few weeks.

The rankings are based only on performance this year. These are essentially offensive rankings, though I did consider defense in a few cases. I used 2009 OPS+ values from baseball-reference.com as my primary ranking tool. I also looked at UZR ( a defensive metric available on hardballtimes.com ), raw on-base percentage and plate appearances to differentiate between players in the same range of OPS+. I might use a different statistic if I was doing this again, such as EqA or VoRP or whatever newest alphabet soup stat the traditional sports writers are making fun of these days. I don't think it matters too much, because no matter what I use the rankings will never be perfect. Call them accurate to two spots, high or low.



First Base


1. STL -- Pujols
2. SDP -- Gonzalez
3. MIL -- Fielder
4. WSN -- Dunn
5. CIN -- Votto
6. HOU -- Berkman
7. PHI -- Howard
8. CHC -- Lee
9. COL -- Helton
10. ATL -- LaRoche
11. LAD -- Loney
12. SFG -- Garko
13. FLA -- Gload
14. PIT -- Pearce
15. NYM -- Murphy
16. ARI -- Tracy

First base is the most crowded position, by far. Anyone in the top nine at first would probably make the top three at any other position with the same offensive stats. In fact Dunn would have been number one in right field until the Nats moved him to first base about a month ago.

If new Dodger Jim Thome was able and willing to play first base, then his spot on this list would be --- 11! --- same as James Loney. This even though Thome is much better than Loney at the plate. This is because there is a huge fall-off from Adam LaRoche to Loney, where LaRoche would barely edge out Thome. Similarly Loney barely beats out Garko, while Thome would easily rank ahead of Garko. And then after Garko there is a whole lot of nothing.

I guess what I would say is that Loney is barely competent at first base. His numbers aren't so bad that they cry out that he should be replaced right away. But it's clear when looking at the riches so many other teams have at first base that the Dodgers are really missing out.


Second Base

1. PHI -- Utley
2. ATL -- Prado
3. FLA -- Uggla
4. MIL -- Lopez
5. ARI -- Roberts
6. LAD -- Hudson
7. NYM -- Castillo
8. PIT -- Young
9. SFG -- Sanchez
10. STL -- Schumaker
11. CIN -- Phillips
12. SDP -- Eckstein
13. COL -- Barmes
14. CHC -- Fontenot
15. WSN -- Gonzalez
16. HOU -- Matsui

There is Utley and then there is everyone else. Not even Pujols dominates his position as thoroughly as Utley does. After Utley there is a big undifferentiated messy mass from about 2-9. You could probably argue for Orlando Hudson to go anywhere in that range, but he settles in at 6. Lately Hudson has been closer to Eckstein than Prado, though.

My favorite part of this list is that Clint Barmes ranks behind the modern day Scrappy Doo, David Eckstein. That's mostly because Barmes can't even manage an OBP of 0.300 playing half his games in Coors Field. Barmes will hit you a few home runs but he's still the same terrible player he's always been.


Shortstop

1. FLA -- Ramirez
2. COL -- Tulowitzki
3. ATL -- Escobar
4. SDP -- Cabrera
5. ARI -- Drew
6. STL -- Ryan
7. HOU -- Tejada
8. CHC -- Theriot
9. WSN -- Guzman
10. LAD -- Furcal
11. PHI -- Rollins
12. MIL -- Hardy
13. SFG -- Renteria
14. PIT -- Cedeno
15. NYM -- Hernandez
16. CIN -- Janish

Hanley Ramirez is another easy call for best at his position. Tulowitzki is having a fine rebound season after slumping last year. After that shortstop falls off pretty quickly offensively. Furcal should be in the top four here and instead can't even crack the top half. At least Furcal beats Rollins, who just can't get on base anymore. J.J. Hardy of the Brewers was recently sent down to the minors by the Brewers, but I decided to use him as their representative anyway and he beat out four others. Sad.


Third Base

1. ARI -- Reynolds
2. SFG -- Sandoval
3. WSN -- Zimmerman
4. NYM -- Wright
5. CHC -- Ramirez
6. ATL -- Jones
7. LAD -- Blake
8. MIL -- McGehee
9. CIN -- Rolen
10. COL -- Stewart
11. SDP -- Kouzmanoff
12. STL -- DeRosa
13. FLA -- Cantu
14. PIT -- LaRoche
15. HOU -- Blum
16. PHI -- Feliz

I had to grit my teeth and put Reynolds number one. Not that the alternative was much better with Sandoval the Giant Panda. If only Zimmerman had continued the great hitting of his first month.

Third base is the most solid position in the National League. None of these players are truly awful. Pedro Feliz of the Phillies is last place but he's not quite a terrible hitter, with an OPS+ of 85. Given how solid third base is I think Casey Blake's seventh place on the list is pretty good. He's the bright spot of a rather average Dodger infield.


Left Field


1. MIL -- Braun
2. STL -- Holliday
3. LAD -- Manny
4. WSN -- Willingham
5. PHI -- Ibanez
6. HOU -- Lee
7. FLA -- Coghlan
8. NYM -- Sheffield
9. CIN -- Nix
10. ATL -- Anderson
11. SDP -- Headley
12. COL -- Spilborghs
13. SFG -- Velez
14. PIT -- Milledge
15. ARI -- Parra
16. CHC -- Soriano

Well, I originally had Manny in first, because he has a pretty clear advantage offensively, but I finally moved him down a bit because of playing time and defense. I suspect that Manny's OPS+ would be a little lower than it is now if he had not been suspended for 50 games.

I have no idea what Jim Tracy is doing over there in Colorado. If he would just install Seth Smith as the regular left fielder he would have the seventh or eighth best left fielder in the NL. Instead he goes with Spilborghs most often, who is a nice defensive player but is not a great hitter. Smith has started just three times in the last two weeks. I don't get it. Maybe Smith reminds Tracy of Hee Sop Choi?

Left Field isn't as strong offensively as I thought it would be. It's kind of surprising to me that old and creaky Gary Sheffield cracked the top half. At the bottom of the ranking you have mega-bust Soriano. Given how Zito has bounced back this year I think Soriano takes over as worst contract.


Center Field


1. LAD -- Kemp ( Hurray! )
2. PIT -- McCutchen
3. MIL -- Cameron
4. CHC -- Fukudome
5. PHI -- Victorino
6. NYM -- Pagan
7. HOU -- Bourn
8. ATL -- McClouth
9. FLA -- Ross
10. SFG -- Rowand
11. WSN -- Morgan
12. COL -- Fowler
13. STL -- Rasmus
14. SDP -- Gwynn
15. ARI -- Young
16. CIN -- Taveras

Carlos Beltran would have taken first if he had been healthy, but he's not, so Matt Kemp wins quite easily. This is not a star studded group ( except for Kemp ) but it's pretty solid up until about Ross or Rowand, after which you start getting into a lot of speedy guys who just can't hit.

You'd think a guy hitting 0.190 would be able to hold down last place in center field, but Chris Young didn't count on Willy Taveras and Dusty Baker's stubborn insistence on playing him ( until a recent injury ). Taveras is the worst regular in the National League this year. How many years has Dusty Baker managed the worst everyday player? It seems like a lot. I'll have to look into that someday.


Right Field

1. ARI -- Upton
2. LAD -- Ethier
3. PHI -- Werth
4. COL -- Hawpe
5. ATL -- Diaz
6. CIN -- Gomes
7. PIT -- Jones
8. HOU -- Pence
9. SDP -- Venable
10. CHC -- Bradley
11. STL -- Ludwick
12. MIL -- Hart
13. FLA -- Hermida
14. SFG -- Schierholtz
15. WSN -- Dukes
16. NYM -- Francoeur

The Snakes are the only team who win two different positions, and yet their offense is still awful! Just look at their ranking in left field (15), center field (15) and first base (16) to see why. There is no need to talk about potential with Justin Upton any more, even though he just turned 22. He's not a prospect anymore. He's arrived. He's a star. He's a superstar. And he will torture the Dodgers for years to come.

At least Ethier will torture those Snakes right back, though perhaps not quite as painfully. Ethier is a star too. He just edges out Werth, giving the Dodgers a clean sweep over the Phillies in the outfield. I think you could argue for Werth over Ethier, but at the other two spots the Dodgers win pretty easily.


Catcher

1. ATL -- McCann
2. ARI -- Montero
3. FLA -- Baker
4. STL -- Y. Molina
5. PHI -- Ruiz
6. COL -- Iannetta
7. LAD -- Martin
8. NYM -- Santos
9. CIN -- Hanigan
10. SFG -- B. Molina
11. SDP -- Hundley
12. CHC -- Soto
13. HOU -- Quintero
14. PIT -- Doumit
15. WSN -- Bard
16. MIL -- Kendall

Remember when McCann and Martin had a little rivalry going for best young catcher in the NL? Not anymore, not this year, anyway. McCann is a clear number one and Martin has fallen back into the pack. Martin's on base percentage keeps him in the top half and keeps him from being a total offensive disaster, but his sub-Pierre slugging percentage is truly disappointing.


Rankings by Team


POS -- C -- 1B -- 2B -- 3B -- SS -- RF -- CF -- LF -- Sum

LAD -- 07 -- 11 -- 06 -- 07 -- 10 -- 02 -- 01 -- 03 -- 47
SFG -- 10 -- 12 -- 09 -- 02 -- 13 -- 14 -- 10 -- 13 -- 83
COL -- 06 -- 09 -- 13 -- 10 -- 02 -- 04 -- 12 -- 12 -- 68
ARI -- 02 -- 16 -- 05 -- 01 -- 05 -- 01 -- 15 -- 15 -- 60
SDP -- 11 -- 02 -- 12 -- 11 -- 04 -- 09 -- 14 -- 11 -- 74

STL -- 04 -- 01 -- 10 -- 12 -- 06 -- 11 -- 13 -- 02 -- 59
CHC -- 12 -- 08 -- 14 -- 05 -- 08 -- 10 -- 04 -- 16 -- 77
MIL -- 16 -- 03 -- 04 -- 08 -- 12 -- 12 -- 03 -- 01 -- 59
HOU -- 13 -- 06 -- 16 -- 15 -- 07 -- 08 -- 07 -- 06 -- 78
CIN -- 09 -- 05 -- 11 -- 09 -- 16 -- 06 -- 16 -- 09 -- 81
PIT -- 14 -- 14 -- 08 -- 14 -- 14 -- 07 -- 02 -- 14 -- 87

PHI -- 05 -- 07 -- 01 -- 16 -- 11 -- 03 -- 05 -- 05 -- 53
ATL -- 01 -- 10 -- 02 -- 06 -- 03 -- 05 -- 08 -- 10 -- 45
FLA -- 03 -- 13 -- 03 -- 13 -- 01 -- 13 -- 09 -- 07 -- 62
NYM -- 08 -- 15 -- 07 -- 04 -- 15 -- 16 -- 06 -- 08 -- 79
WSN -- 15 -- 04 -- 15 -- 03 -- 09 -- 15 -- 11 -- 04 -- 76


Pitching

Tomorrow I'll have starting pitcher rankings, which is fun because first the starters on each team have to be ranked against each other to put them in their proper rotation slots. Chad Billingsley and Cole Hamels both ended up in the three slot!

No comments: