For the starting pitching rankings in the National League I used ERA+ from baseball reference, FIP from hardballtimes.com, and inning pitched. Only 2009 performance is considered. Starters on each team were assigned to first, second, third, fourth and fifth starter slots depending on how good their performances relative to each other, and then all first starters were ranked against each other, all second starters ranked against each other, and so on.
First Starter
1. SFG -- Lincecum
2. STL -- Carpenter
3. PHI -- Lee
4. ARI -- Haren
5. FLA -- Johnson
6. COL -- Jimenez
7. LAD -- Kershaw
8. ATL -- Jurrjens
9. HOU -- Rodriguez
10. NYM -- Santana
11. CHC -- Wells
12. MIL -- Gallardo
13. PIT -- Duke
14. CIN -- Harang
15. WSN -- Lannan
16. SDP -- Correia
The ranking of aces is fun, but I wonder if it's really that important. If you're anywhere in the top ten you're doing fine. There are of course a few pitchers who should be called "aces" who have to wait until the second or even third list to be mentioned because they aren't their team's best pitcher.
Kershaw would be a little higher if he had more innings pitched. As it is you could argue for him being bumped down to 9 or 10 because he has a higher chance than any of these other guys of not making it through 5 innings. The Dodgers are a strange case because I think you could argue for any of Wolf, Billingsley or Kershaw to be their top pitcher. In the end I went with the guy with all the strikeouts.
Santana will not pitch again this season, but since he's been the Mets ace for most of the season I kept him in. It is strange to see Santana so low on this list.
Second Starter
1. STL -- Wainwright
2. SFG -- Cain
3. ATL -- Vazquez
4. PHI -- Happ
5. LAD -- Wolf
6. COL -- Marquis
7. CHC -- Lilly
8. HOU -- Oswalt
9. ARI -- Scherzer
10. CIN -- Arroyo
11. FLA -- Nolasco
12. PIT -- Maholm
13. NYM -- Pelfrey
14. WSN -- Stammen
15. MIL -- Looper
16. SDP -- Latos
Wainwright and Cain are Cy Young candidates, but they can't even make the first starter list because of Carpenter and Lincecum. Surprise 2009 successes Happ, Wolf and Marquis have boosted their teams into excellent playoff positions.
Third Starter
1. STL -- Pineiro
2. LAD -- Billingsley
3. CHC -- Zambrano
4. SFG -- Zito
5. ARI -- Davis
6. ATL -- Lowe
7. COL -- de la Rosa
8. PHI -- Hamels
9. CIN -- Cueto
10. PIT -- Ohlendorf
11. HOU -- Moehler
12. WSN -- Mock
13. SDP -- Stauffer
14. FLA -- Sanchez
15. MIL -- Suppan
16. NYM -- Redding
Pineiro would be the first starter on many teams. The Cardinals go three deep with shut down pitchers, and for that reason I have to think they should be favored to win the NL Pennant. Their bullpen is sometimes shaky, but how often will that be a factor with Carpenter, Wainwright and Pineiro starting? Their fourth starter isn't that great, but by that time they may already be up 3-0 in the series. Then you think about Pujols and Holliday and the Cardinals seem unbeatable.
Fortunately great pitchers lose all the time in the playoffs. I guess that has something to do with the great pitchers and great hitters on the teams they face. So the Cardinals may be favorites but they aren't locks.
Billingsley comes in second to Pineiro, giving the Dodgers a very good top three in the rotation. Billingsley's ERA has risen since his great start to the season but his underlying FIP numbers ( homers, Ks and walks ) are still very good. Another reputed ace who has slid into the third starter slot is Hamels, and he doesn't fare as well as Billingsley, though I didn't take into account Hamels' two hitter yesterday in this ranking. If Hamels can pitch as well in the playoffs this year as he did last year then the Phillie pitching will look a lot better and might even challenge the Cardinals for overall scariness. But even if he doesn't regain that form the Phillies still have a very good rotation.
Fourth Starter
1. COL -- Hammel
2. PHI -- Blanton
3. CHC -- Dempster
4. LAD -- Garland
5. SFG -- Sanchez
6. ATL -- Kawakami
7. FLA -- West
8. STL -- Lohse
9. PIT -- Morton
10. ARI -- Petit
11. NYM -- Parnell
12. CIN -- Bailey
13. MIL -- Parra
14. WSN -- Martin
15. SDP -- Richard
16. HOU -- Norris
This is the last ranking that matters for playoff matchups. I was surprised to see the Rockies come out on top here, though not that surprised, since it's really been their solid starting pitching that has fueled their turnaround since the first two months. I listed Garland as the fourth Dodgers starter, though maybe Kuroda will end up in that role. At this point I'm just not sure if Kuroda can come back at full strength. Is giving up a ground rule double off your head something you can recover from in a month?
If Kuroda was in the fourth slot for the Dodgers he'd probably rank about the same on this list. The Dodgers may not have the most impressive playoff pitching staff but they do have a staff you can win with.
Fifth Starter
1. ATL -- Hanson
2. CHC -- Harden
3. LAD -- Kuroda
4. COL -- Contreras
5. PHI -- Martinez
6. PIT -- Hart
7. SFG -- Penny
8. STL -- Smoltz
9. WSN -- Hernandez
10. FLA -- Volstad
11. NYM -- Figueroa
12. CIN -- Owings
13. MIL -- Bush
NR -- HOU, SDP, ARI
Very few teams have five decent starters. Even fewer have five good starters. The Braves, Cubs, and maybe Dodgers ( if Kuroda can come back ) have five arguably good starters. The Rockies, Giants and Cardinals are making a go of it with some pitchers who struggled in the American League. The Phillies are seeing if Pedro has any magic left. But it's very meager pickings out there. You mostly get guys like Livan Hernandez and Micah Owings, not to mention all the fifth starters who didn't make it to this point in the year due to poor performances. Heck, I didn't even list a fifth starter for three teams, that's how bad it is. The good news for teams headed to the playoffs is that the fifth starter doesn't matter --- unless one of the top four get hurt.
Team Rankings
1. STL -- 02 -- 01 -- 01 -- 08 -- 08
2. SFG -- 01 -- 02 -- 04 -- 05 -- 07
3. PHI -- 03 -- 04 -- 08 -- 02 -- 05
4. LAD -- 07 -- 05 -- 02 -- 04 -- 03
5. COL -- 06 -- 06 -- 07 -- 01 -- 04
6. CHC -- 11 -- 07 -- 03 -- 03 -- 02
7. ATL -- 08 -- 03 -- 06 -- 06 -- 01
8. ARI -- 04 -- 09 -- 05 -- 10 -- XX
9. FLA -- 05 -- 11 -- 14 -- 07 -- 10
10. HOU -- 09 -- 08 -- 11 -- 16 -- XX
11. CIN -- 14 -- 10 -- 09 -- 12 -- 12
12. PIT -- 13 -- 12 -- 10 -- 09 -- 06
13. NYM -- 10 -- 13 -- 16 -- 11 -- 11
14. MIL -- 12 -- 15 -- 15 -- 13 -- 13
15. WSN -- 15 -- 14 -- 12 -- 14 -- 09
16. SDP -- 16 -- 16 -- 13 -- 15 -- XX
Man, the Padres have had terrible pitching this year. Even when Peavy was pitching for them he didn't do that well. Just a lost year for the Padres. Everyone else in the NL West had pretty good starting pitching, even the Snakes.
I suppose it's no accident the top five playoff contenders make the top five of the list, though I don't think it would always work out that way. I should note that my team rankings ( like all the other rankings I have done here and in the position player post yesterday ) are subjective and may have been subtly influenced by how well I know the teams are doing. It's interesting though that the two teams that have the most solid rotations top to bottom ( Cubs and Braves ) are on the outside looking in right now.
The Dodgers only have a starting pitching advantage against one likely playoff opponent, the Rockies, and that one is pretty close. Nevertheless I like where the Dodgers stand at this point, mostly because of the bullpen. How well the Dodgers play in October ( and if they even get there ) will be up to how well the offense performs, I think.
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