It's tricky, sometimes, to figure out a team's starter at every position. Not every team has as stable a lineup as the Dodgers. Injury ravaged teams are problematic, as are teams that have fallen out of contention and may be working younger players into the lineup. If a typically starting player is currently on the disabled list then I still listed him as the starter if he only recently went on the DL, even if he might not come back this season, though I think almost all of the disabled players I have listed will be coming back this season. So David Wright is listed as the Met third baseman, while Carlos Beltran is out as the Met center fielder because he's been out for months. When there was no clear starter at a position I just looked at who was playing the most games at that position in the last few weeks.
The rankings are based only on performance this year. These are essentially offensive rankings, though I did consider defense in a few cases. I used 2009 OPS+ values from baseball-reference.com as my primary ranking tool. I also looked at UZR ( a defensive metric available on hardballtimes.com ), raw on-base percentage and plate appearances to differentiate between players in the same range of OPS+. I might use a different statistic if I was doing this again, such as EqA or VoRP or whatever newest alphabet soup stat the traditional sports writers are making fun of these days. I don't think it matters too much, because no matter what I use the rankings will never be perfect. Call them accurate to two spots, high or low.
First Base
1. STL -- Pujols
2. SDP -- Gonzalez
3. MIL -- Fielder
4. WSN -- Dunn
5. CIN -- Votto
6. HOU -- Berkman
7. PHI -- Howard
8. CHC -- Lee
9. COL -- Helton
10. ATL -- LaRoche
11. LAD -- Loney
12. SFG -- Garko
13. FLA -- Gload
14. PIT -- Pearce
15. NYM -- Murphy
16. ARI -- Tracy
First base is the most crowded position, by far. Anyone in the top nine at first would probably make the top three at any other position with the same offensive stats. In fact Dunn would have been number one in right field until the Nats moved him to first base about a month ago.
If new Dodger Jim Thome was able and willing to play first base, then his spot on this list would be --- 11! --- same as James Loney. This even though Thome is much better than Loney at the plate. This is because there is a huge fall-off from Adam LaRoche to Loney, where LaRoche would barely edge out Thome. Similarly Loney barely beats out Garko, while Thome would easily rank ahead of Garko. And then after Garko there is a whole lot of nothing.
I guess what I would say is that Loney is barely competent at first base. His numbers aren't so bad that they cry out that he should be replaced right away. But it's clear when looking at the riches so many other teams have at first base that the Dodgers are really missing out.
Second Base
1. PHI -- Utley
2. ATL -- Prado
3. FLA -- Uggla
4. MIL -- Lopez
5. ARI -- Roberts
6. LAD -- Hudson
7. NYM -- Castillo
8. PIT -- Young
9. SFG -- Sanchez
10. STL -- Schumaker
11. CIN -- Phillips
12. SDP -- Eckstein
13. COL -- Barmes
14. CHC -- Fontenot
15. WSN -- Gonzalez
16. HOU -- Matsui
There is Utley and then there is everyone else. Not even Pujols dominates his position as thoroughly as Utley does. After Utley there is a big undifferentiated messy mass from about 2-9. You could probably argue for Orlando Hudson to go anywhere in that range, but he settles in at 6. Lately Hudson has been closer to Eckstein than Prado, though.
My favorite part of this list is that Clint Barmes ranks behind the modern day Scrappy Doo, David Eckstein. That's mostly because Barmes can't even manage an OBP of 0.300 playing half his games in Coors Field. Barmes will hit you a few home runs but he's still the same terrible player he's always been.
Shortstop
1. FLA -- Ramirez
2. COL -- Tulowitzki
3. ATL -- Escobar
4. SDP -- Cabrera
5. ARI -- Drew
6. STL -- Ryan
7. HOU -- Tejada
8. CHC -- Theriot
9. WSN -- Guzman
10. LAD -- Furcal
11. PHI -- Rollins
12. MIL -- Hardy
13. SFG -- Renteria
14. PIT -- Cedeno
15. NYM -- Hernandez
16. CIN -- Janish
Hanley Ramirez is another easy call for best at his position. Tulowitzki is having a fine rebound season after slumping last year. After that shortstop falls off pretty quickly offensively. Furcal should be in the top four here and instead can't even crack the top half. At least Furcal beats Rollins, who just can't get on base anymore. J.J. Hardy of the Brewers was recently sent down to the minors by the Brewers, but I decided to use him as their representative anyway and he beat out four others. Sad.
Third Base
1. ARI -- Reynolds
2. SFG -- Sandoval
3. WSN -- Zimmerman
4. NYM -- Wright
5. CHC -- Ramirez
6. ATL -- Jones
7. LAD -- Blake
8. MIL -- McGehee
9. CIN -- Rolen
10. COL -- Stewart
11. SDP -- Kouzmanoff
12. STL -- DeRosa
13. FLA -- Cantu
14. PIT -- LaRoche
15. HOU -- Blum
16. PHI -- Feliz
I had to grit my teeth and put Reynolds number one. Not that the alternative was much better with Sandoval the Giant Panda. If only Zimmerman had continued the great hitting of his first month.
Third base is the most solid position in the National League. None of these players are truly awful. Pedro Feliz of the Phillies is last place but he's not quite a terrible hitter, with an OPS+ of 85. Given how solid third base is I think Casey Blake's seventh place on the list is pretty good. He's the bright spot of a rather average Dodger infield.
Left Field
1. MIL -- Braun
2. STL -- Holliday
3. LAD -- Manny
4. WSN -- Willingham
5. PHI -- Ibanez
6. HOU -- Lee
7. FLA -- Coghlan
8. NYM -- Sheffield
9. CIN -- Nix
10. ATL -- Anderson
11. SDP -- Headley
12. COL -- Spilborghs
13. SFG -- Velez
14. PIT -- Milledge
15. ARI -- Parra
16. CHC -- Soriano
Well, I originally had Manny in first, because he has a pretty clear advantage offensively, but I finally moved him down a bit because of playing time and defense. I suspect that Manny's OPS+ would be a little lower than it is now if he had not been suspended for 50 games.
I have no idea what Jim Tracy is doing over there in Colorado. If he would just install Seth Smith as the regular left fielder he would have the seventh or eighth best left fielder in the NL. Instead he goes with Spilborghs most often, who is a nice defensive player but is not a great hitter. Smith has started just three times in the last two weeks. I don't get it. Maybe Smith reminds Tracy of Hee Sop Choi?
Left Field isn't as strong offensively as I thought it would be. It's kind of surprising to me that old and creaky Gary Sheffield cracked the top half. At the bottom of the ranking you have mega-bust Soriano. Given how Zito has bounced back this year I think Soriano takes over as worst contract.
Center Field
1. LAD -- Kemp ( Hurray! )
2. PIT -- McCutchen
3. MIL -- Cameron
4. CHC -- Fukudome
5. PHI -- Victorino
6. NYM -- Pagan
7. HOU -- Bourn
8. ATL -- McClouth
9. FLA -- Ross
10. SFG -- Rowand
11. WSN -- Morgan
12. COL -- Fowler
13. STL -- Rasmus
14. SDP -- Gwynn
15. ARI -- Young
16. CIN -- Taveras
Carlos Beltran would have taken first if he had been healthy, but he's not, so Matt Kemp wins quite easily. This is not a star studded group ( except for Kemp ) but it's pretty solid up until about Ross or Rowand, after which you start getting into a lot of speedy guys who just can't hit.
You'd think a guy hitting 0.190 would be able to hold down last place in center field, but Chris Young didn't count on Willy Taveras and Dusty Baker's stubborn insistence on playing him ( until a recent injury ). Taveras is the worst regular in the National League this year. How many years has Dusty Baker managed the worst everyday player? It seems like a lot. I'll have to look into that someday.
Right Field
1. ARI -- Upton
2. LAD -- Ethier
3. PHI -- Werth
4. COL -- Hawpe
5. ATL -- Diaz
6. CIN -- Gomes
7. PIT -- Jones
8. HOU -- Pence
9. SDP -- Venable
10. CHC -- Bradley
11. STL -- Ludwick
12. MIL -- Hart
13. FLA -- Hermida
14. SFG -- Schierholtz
15. WSN -- Dukes
16. NYM -- Francoeur
The Snakes are the only team who win two different positions, and yet their offense is still awful! Just look at their ranking in left field (15), center field (15) and first base (16) to see why. There is no need to talk about potential with Justin Upton any more, even though he just turned 22. He's not a prospect anymore. He's arrived. He's a star. He's a superstar. And he will torture the Dodgers for years to come.
At least Ethier will torture those Snakes right back, though perhaps not quite as painfully. Ethier is a star too. He just edges out Werth, giving the Dodgers a clean sweep over the Phillies in the outfield. I think you could argue for Werth over Ethier, but at the other two spots the Dodgers win pretty easily.
Catcher
1. ATL -- McCann
2. ARI -- Montero
3. FLA -- Baker
4. STL -- Y. Molina
5. PHI -- Ruiz
6. COL -- Iannetta
7. LAD -- Martin
8. NYM -- Santos
9. CIN -- Hanigan
10. SFG -- B. Molina
11. SDP -- Hundley
12. CHC -- Soto
13. HOU -- Quintero
14. PIT -- Doumit
15. WSN -- Bard
16. MIL -- Kendall
Remember when McCann and Martin had a little rivalry going for best young catcher in the NL? Not anymore, not this year, anyway. McCann is a clear number one and Martin has fallen back into the pack. Martin's on base percentage keeps him in the top half and keeps him from being a total offensive disaster, but his sub-Pierre slugging percentage is truly disappointing.
Rankings by Team
POS -- C -- 1B -- 2B -- 3B -- SS -- RF -- CF -- LF -- Sum
LAD -- 07 -- 11 -- 06 -- 07 -- 10 -- 02 -- 01 -- 03 -- 47
SFG -- 10 -- 12 -- 09 -- 02 -- 13 -- 14 -- 10 -- 13 -- 83
COL -- 06 -- 09 -- 13 -- 10 -- 02 -- 04 -- 12 -- 12 -- 68
ARI -- 02 -- 16 -- 05 -- 01 -- 05 -- 01 -- 15 -- 15 -- 60
SDP -- 11 -- 02 -- 12 -- 11 -- 04 -- 09 -- 14 -- 11 -- 74
STL -- 04 -- 01 -- 10 -- 12 -- 06 -- 11 -- 13 -- 02 -- 59
CHC -- 12 -- 08 -- 14 -- 05 -- 08 -- 10 -- 04 -- 16 -- 77
MIL -- 16 -- 03 -- 04 -- 08 -- 12 -- 12 -- 03 -- 01 -- 59
HOU -- 13 -- 06 -- 16 -- 15 -- 07 -- 08 -- 07 -- 06 -- 78
CIN -- 09 -- 05 -- 11 -- 09 -- 16 -- 06 -- 16 -- 09 -- 81
PIT -- 14 -- 14 -- 08 -- 14 -- 14 -- 07 -- 02 -- 14 -- 87
PHI -- 05 -- 07 -- 01 -- 16 -- 11 -- 03 -- 05 -- 05 -- 53
ATL -- 01 -- 10 -- 02 -- 06 -- 03 -- 05 -- 08 -- 10 -- 45
FLA -- 03 -- 13 -- 03 -- 13 -- 01 -- 13 -- 09 -- 07 -- 62
NYM -- 08 -- 15 -- 07 -- 04 -- 15 -- 16 -- 06 -- 08 -- 79
WSN -- 15 -- 04 -- 15 -- 03 -- 09 -- 15 -- 11 -- 04 -- 76
Pitching
Tomorrow I'll have starting pitcher rankings, which is fun because first the starters on each team have to be ranked against each other to put them in their proper rotation slots. Chad Billingsley and Cole Hamels both ended up in the three slot!
01 September 2009
Reliever Revulsion
Why couldn't Sherrill have given up his first run when the Dodgers had a multiple-run lead or something? At least he didn't give it up in a tie game. The first truth is Sherrill wasn't really pitching well enough not to be giving up no runs, so this was coming. Though I guess it was coming no matter how well he was pitching, since everyone gives up runs occasionally, even the best.
Is my revulsion for the relievers? Or is it for the expectation that they must always be perfect, and that if they are not they will take the blame? The second truth is the Dodger offense was the primary culprit for that loss last night. They were the prime movers, or the prime non-movers, actually. It was Archimedes who said, "Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I will move the world". And it is I who says, "Give me a Dodger team who stops hitting for long enough, and a sofa on which to place my butt, and I will fall asleep on the sofa while they lose in extra innings".
I did not actually fall asleep. That wouldn't have happened even if there hadn't been all the exciting trade news. Thome! Garland! You could have knocked me over with a Mark Hendrickson fastball after Vinny announced the Thome trade over the air. Whether the trades end up working out or not at least I always enjoy the initial rush of getting a name player. I do --- perhaps I should be ashamed of that. I'm a sucker for name players, for the thrill of imagining what great things that player will do. Wow, Thome, he'll play first base and hit 20 home runs! He's still just 30, right? Maybe they could put him in the outfield if Manny needs a day off! And so on. The third truth is Thome will be a near non-factor for the Dodgers if all he does is pinch hit. Unless they get to the World Series and he gets his chance to hit without fielding. The Dodgers didn't really give up anything to get Thome, and it does improve the bench, so I do approve of the trade, but the final effect of the trade is likely to be closer to zero than some would imagine.
I'm excited to get Garland because years ago the Dodgers were rumored to be interested in trading for him and I kind of wanted him then and I figure better late than never. I'm not excited about the prospect the Dodgers probably had to give up to get him, whoever it is. I don't care about the salary relief the Dodgers get along with Garland. I'm sure management loves that, but it's not my money so I'd rather the Dodgers kept the better prospect, paid for Garland's salary themselves, and gave up a lesser prospect. The fourth truth is that money is the most important consideration for team owners. Most of them, anyway. I can't really blame them for that, I guess.
Game 132 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
McDonald -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Blake -- 1
It's the fault of the Dodger offense that the game was lost, but even so McDonald can't avoid an unfair loss share after giving up two runs and nearly a bushel more in the tenth inning. A dishonorary unfair loss share goes to every Dodger hitter who meekly went out in the bottom of the tenth inning, preventing even the false hope of Ethier coming up as the tying run.
Game 132 Unfair Win Shares ( Snakes )
Vasquez -- 1
Upton -- 1
Ojeda -- 1
If not for Justin Upton, Andre Ethier would be the best right fielder in the National League this year. I have a great big post coming up later today in which I rank all the National League starting players by position. It's gonna be fun on the bun!
Is my revulsion for the relievers? Or is it for the expectation that they must always be perfect, and that if they are not they will take the blame? The second truth is the Dodger offense was the primary culprit for that loss last night. They were the prime movers, or the prime non-movers, actually. It was Archimedes who said, "Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I will move the world". And it is I who says, "Give me a Dodger team who stops hitting for long enough, and a sofa on which to place my butt, and I will fall asleep on the sofa while they lose in extra innings".
I did not actually fall asleep. That wouldn't have happened even if there hadn't been all the exciting trade news. Thome! Garland! You could have knocked me over with a Mark Hendrickson fastball after Vinny announced the Thome trade over the air. Whether the trades end up working out or not at least I always enjoy the initial rush of getting a name player. I do --- perhaps I should be ashamed of that. I'm a sucker for name players, for the thrill of imagining what great things that player will do. Wow, Thome, he'll play first base and hit 20 home runs! He's still just 30, right? Maybe they could put him in the outfield if Manny needs a day off! And so on. The third truth is Thome will be a near non-factor for the Dodgers if all he does is pinch hit. Unless they get to the World Series and he gets his chance to hit without fielding. The Dodgers didn't really give up anything to get Thome, and it does improve the bench, so I do approve of the trade, but the final effect of the trade is likely to be closer to zero than some would imagine.
I'm excited to get Garland because years ago the Dodgers were rumored to be interested in trading for him and I kind of wanted him then and I figure better late than never. I'm not excited about the prospect the Dodgers probably had to give up to get him, whoever it is. I don't care about the salary relief the Dodgers get along with Garland. I'm sure management loves that, but it's not my money so I'd rather the Dodgers kept the better prospect, paid for Garland's salary themselves, and gave up a lesser prospect. The fourth truth is that money is the most important consideration for team owners. Most of them, anyway. I can't really blame them for that, I guess.
Game 132 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
McDonald -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Blake -- 1
It's the fault of the Dodger offense that the game was lost, but even so McDonald can't avoid an unfair loss share after giving up two runs and nearly a bushel more in the tenth inning. A dishonorary unfair loss share goes to every Dodger hitter who meekly went out in the bottom of the tenth inning, preventing even the false hope of Ethier coming up as the tying run.
Game 132 Unfair Win Shares ( Snakes )
Vasquez -- 1
Upton -- 1
Ojeda -- 1
If not for Justin Upton, Andre Ethier would be the best right fielder in the National League this year. I have a great big post coming up later today in which I rank all the National League starting players by position. It's gonna be fun on the bun!
31 August 2009
Reliever Revelation
The Dodger bullpen pitched 11.2 scoreless innings on Saturday and Sunday to help the Dodgers sweep the weekend and come out of Cincinatti with a 2-1 Series win. Every member of the Dodger 'pen participated in one of the two wins. They totaled 14 strikeouts, just 3 walks, and 11 hits allowed.
Jeff Weaver allowed 6 of those hits on Saturday. Weaver was the shakiest of the Dodger relievers, but he also had the hardest job of any of them, being asked to pitch multiple innings and preserve a tie after Charlie Haeger couldn't escape the third inning on Saturday. Weaver loaded up the bases once and escaped, then loaded them up a second time and watched as Troncoso recorded the last out for him.
On Sunday Troncoso, Kuo and McDonald each pitched a scoreless, two-strikeout inning when a run would have defeated the Dodgers. After the Dodgers scored in the top of the twelfth Broxton came in and gave up two baserunners, but then closed out the victory with two strikeouts.
It's impossible to pick out a single bullpen hero for the Dodgers. Broxton is the best they have but by himself he couldn't have done anything Saturday and Sunday. None of the bullpen members could even earn an unfair win share this weekend. But they were still essential to each Dodger win.
Game 130 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Furcal -- 1
Pierre -- 1
Kemp -- 1
The game was really close in the middle innings, and Jeff Weaver did some fine work in keeping the Dodgers from ever trailing, but he did give up 6 hits and require his own bases loaded bail-out. The offense turned the game into a rout and they get the spoils of victory. Between them Furcal, Pierre and Kemp drove in 7 runs and scored 5.
Game 130 Unfair Loss Shares ( Reds )
Maloney -- 1
Fisher -- 2
Game 131 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Kershaw -- 2
Kershaw set the two-strikeout per inning example that the bullpen pitchers would follow so successfully. And if not for Kershaw's fifth inning RBI single the 'pen wouldn't have even been pitching into the tenth, elventh and twelfth innings. Kemp ended the weekend with two home runs and two unfair win shares. He's closing in on Andre Ethier for the team lead in OPS among qualifying batters.
Game 131 Unfair Loss Shares ( Reds )
Votto -- 1
Cordero -- 1
Phillips -- 1
Jeff Weaver allowed 6 of those hits on Saturday. Weaver was the shakiest of the Dodger relievers, but he also had the hardest job of any of them, being asked to pitch multiple innings and preserve a tie after Charlie Haeger couldn't escape the third inning on Saturday. Weaver loaded up the bases once and escaped, then loaded them up a second time and watched as Troncoso recorded the last out for him.
On Sunday Troncoso, Kuo and McDonald each pitched a scoreless, two-strikeout inning when a run would have defeated the Dodgers. After the Dodgers scored in the top of the twelfth Broxton came in and gave up two baserunners, but then closed out the victory with two strikeouts.
It's impossible to pick out a single bullpen hero for the Dodgers. Broxton is the best they have but by himself he couldn't have done anything Saturday and Sunday. None of the bullpen members could even earn an unfair win share this weekend. But they were still essential to each Dodger win.
Game 130 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Furcal -- 1
Pierre -- 1
Kemp -- 1
The game was really close in the middle innings, and Jeff Weaver did some fine work in keeping the Dodgers from ever trailing, but he did give up 6 hits and require his own bases loaded bail-out. The offense turned the game into a rout and they get the spoils of victory. Between them Furcal, Pierre and Kemp drove in 7 runs and scored 5.
Game 130 Unfair Loss Shares ( Reds )
Maloney -- 1
Fisher -- 2
Game 131 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Kemp -- 1
Kershaw -- 2
Kershaw set the two-strikeout per inning example that the bullpen pitchers would follow so successfully. And if not for Kershaw's fifth inning RBI single the 'pen wouldn't have even been pitching into the tenth, elventh and twelfth innings. Kemp ended the weekend with two home runs and two unfair win shares. He's closing in on Andre Ethier for the team lead in OPS among qualifying batters.
Game 131 Unfair Loss Shares ( Reds )
Votto -- 1
Cordero -- 1
Phillips -- 1
29 August 2009
Down Looking
I figured out who Manny reminds me of at the plate these days. It all came together when he watched a perfect strike three go by to end yesterday's game against the Reds. Manny is so out of sorts, so discombobulated at the plate --- he's swinging at pitches he shouldn't, he's swinging through pitches he used to hit, he's taking very hittable strikes --- he's lost. He's loster than than lost. Who is he, who does he remind me of?
Wilson Betemit!
Remember how awful Betemit looked in early 2007? So often he looked completely flummoxed at the plate, the low point coming against the Braves when he watched two beautifually hittable down-the-middle fastballs go by in the same at bat. During that time it just seemed that Betemit was guessing or hoping on every pitch. I think this pitch is a curveball that will break out of the strike zone, I've been burned on those so often --- no, it's a fastball down the middle. I hope this pitch is a fastball I can crush --- no, it's a terrible pitch you just struck out on. I think Manny is in the same kind of mental place. Now I don't know this for sure --- I don't know what either man was thinking, so in a way I'm guessing, and maybe my guess is as far off as Manny's guesses have been, but this is sure what it looks like.
This comparison isn't all bad for Manny. Right after Betemit had his infamous strikeout against Smoltz, when it seemed like he was the worst hitter in the world who would never collect another base hit in his life, right after that --- he hit two pinch hit home runs in a row. And he proceeded to hit better for most of the rest of 2007, barring a nasty late-June slump. In any case, this comparison offers hope for Manny. He's hit bottom, and now the recovery begins. I hope.
The crazy thing is that Manny shouldn't even have been up at the plate. With two outs and the bases loaded Andre Ethier swung and missed at a pitch for strike three. As he swung and missed the pitch hit his foot and bounced away, but at the moment the pitch hits Ethier it's a dead ball, and he's out by strikeout since he did swing at it. Game over. Except everyone just treated it as a wild pitch that got away, and all the runners including Ethier were allowed to advance. Here is a quote from the official rules: APPROVED RULING: When the batter is touched by a pitched ball which does not entitle him to first base, the ball is dead and no runner may advance. Seems pretty clear to me. I'm kind of stunned that the umpires got this wrong, and that Dusty Baker didn't argue, or the catcher didn't argue, or the pitcher didn't argue --- did that ball not actually hit Ethier, despite the visual evidence? Even if somehow it didn't hit him, it sure looked like it did, so wouldn't they argue even in that case? Do they just not know the rule? Am I getting the rule wrong?
I'm as confused as Manny at the plate, I am.
Game 129 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Ethier -- 1
Manny -- 1
Blake -- 1
Yeah, Billingsley had a poor game. He really did, allowing 11 baserunners in 5+ innings. But the heart of the Dodger order was just awful, going 1-13 with 7 strikeouts. They had pitches to hit against Homer Bailey, especially in the sixth inning, and just didn't hit them. I'll give the Dodgers this loss after their great series against the Rockies, but the truth is they did LOSE this game. Bailey pitched a lot better than last time but this was no Marquis-like performance. They let Bailey get away with a lot.
Game 129 Unfair Win Shares ( Reds )
Bailey -- 1
Gomes -- 1
Stubbs -- 1
I'm not buying that Bailey had a great start. The Dodgers were flat and he took advantage. He had a good start. It only seemed great because of how out of sorts the Dodger big boppers were. Maybe it was a Coors Field hangover effect.
Wilson Betemit!
Remember how awful Betemit looked in early 2007? So often he looked completely flummoxed at the plate, the low point coming against the Braves when he watched two beautifually hittable down-the-middle fastballs go by in the same at bat. During that time it just seemed that Betemit was guessing or hoping on every pitch. I think this pitch is a curveball that will break out of the strike zone, I've been burned on those so often --- no, it's a fastball down the middle. I hope this pitch is a fastball I can crush --- no, it's a terrible pitch you just struck out on. I think Manny is in the same kind of mental place. Now I don't know this for sure --- I don't know what either man was thinking, so in a way I'm guessing, and maybe my guess is as far off as Manny's guesses have been, but this is sure what it looks like.
This comparison isn't all bad for Manny. Right after Betemit had his infamous strikeout against Smoltz, when it seemed like he was the worst hitter in the world who would never collect another base hit in his life, right after that --- he hit two pinch hit home runs in a row. And he proceeded to hit better for most of the rest of 2007, barring a nasty late-June slump. In any case, this comparison offers hope for Manny. He's hit bottom, and now the recovery begins. I hope.
The crazy thing is that Manny shouldn't even have been up at the plate. With two outs and the bases loaded Andre Ethier swung and missed at a pitch for strike three. As he swung and missed the pitch hit his foot and bounced away, but at the moment the pitch hits Ethier it's a dead ball, and he's out by strikeout since he did swing at it. Game over. Except everyone just treated it as a wild pitch that got away, and all the runners including Ethier were allowed to advance. Here is a quote from the official rules: APPROVED RULING: When the batter is touched by a pitched ball which does not entitle him to first base, the ball is dead and no runner may advance. Seems pretty clear to me. I'm kind of stunned that the umpires got this wrong, and that Dusty Baker didn't argue, or the catcher didn't argue, or the pitcher didn't argue --- did that ball not actually hit Ethier, despite the visual evidence? Even if somehow it didn't hit him, it sure looked like it did, so wouldn't they argue even in that case? Do they just not know the rule? Am I getting the rule wrong?
I'm as confused as Manny at the plate, I am.
Game 129 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Ethier -- 1
Manny -- 1
Blake -- 1
Yeah, Billingsley had a poor game. He really did, allowing 11 baserunners in 5+ innings. But the heart of the Dodger order was just awful, going 1-13 with 7 strikeouts. They had pitches to hit against Homer Bailey, especially in the sixth inning, and just didn't hit them. I'll give the Dodgers this loss after their great series against the Rockies, but the truth is they did LOSE this game. Bailey pitched a lot better than last time but this was no Marquis-like performance. They let Bailey get away with a lot.
Game 129 Unfair Win Shares ( Reds )
Bailey -- 1
Gomes -- 1
Stubbs -- 1
I'm not buying that Bailey had a great start. The Dodgers were flat and he took advantage. He had a good start. It only seemed great because of how out of sorts the Dodger big boppers were. Maybe it was a Coors Field hangover effect.
27 August 2009
Seven-Bit Win
I'd rather watch a game on TV all things considered, but it is a lot of fun to hear the final outs of a really tight game on the radio. Not being able to see what's happening deepens the suspense and tension. Each pitch seems to crackle through the radio. I felt like I could hear the heat of Broxton's fastballs on the voice of the announcers. And then when it happens, when the final strike is swung, and the announcer erupts in excitement for the finish, then comes the best sound of all --- silence. The stunned unhappy silence of the crowd, for a dream denied, followed by the a deeper silence as I turn off the radio and feel only the serenity of the win.
Game 10000000 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Broxton -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Sherrill -- 1
Furcal scored and drove in a run, then made a questionable play in the ninth that left runners at first and second and one out. Having not seen the play I don't know what Furcal could have done, but the Dodger radio announcers seemed to think he left an out somewhere. Regardless of Furcal's play, I feel the day belonged to the Dodger relievers. After Padilla's strong five ( allowing two runs ) the Dodger 'pen took control of the game, and the series, and just maybe the season.
Kuo came first, and struck out three, and I'm just sorry I can't give him an unfair share as well. Troncoso was the weak link, I suppose, but even he wasn't too bad, giving a hit but getting two outs. Then the really tough work began. Picking up for the Troncuilizer with a man on second Sherrill struck out Seth Smith, then cut through the heart of the Rockie order in the eighth before running into a spot of trouble with a single to Hawpe. Broxton finished up the eighth, then mucked around a bit in the ninth before saying "screw it" and blowing away Eric the Younger and Seth Smith ( again! ) to end the game. Four scoreless in Coors Field, with 7 strikeouts. That is a spectacular performance by the Dodger 'pen.
Game 10000000 Unfair Loss Shares ( Rockies )
Smith -- 1
Young -- 1
Stewart -- 1
I almost gave Smith two shares. He struck out twice with the tying run on second, once against Broxton, once against Sherrill. But he did triple in a run and score, so he's only given the one. Young also went out twice with the tying run on second. Bad game. But he really looks like his father, doesn't he?
Game 10000000 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Broxton -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Sherrill -- 1
Furcal scored and drove in a run, then made a questionable play in the ninth that left runners at first and second and one out. Having not seen the play I don't know what Furcal could have done, but the Dodger radio announcers seemed to think he left an out somewhere. Regardless of Furcal's play, I feel the day belonged to the Dodger relievers. After Padilla's strong five ( allowing two runs ) the Dodger 'pen took control of the game, and the series, and just maybe the season.
Kuo came first, and struck out three, and I'm just sorry I can't give him an unfair share as well. Troncoso was the weak link, I suppose, but even he wasn't too bad, giving a hit but getting two outs. Then the really tough work began. Picking up for the Troncuilizer with a man on second Sherrill struck out Seth Smith, then cut through the heart of the Rockie order in the eighth before running into a spot of trouble with a single to Hawpe. Broxton finished up the eighth, then mucked around a bit in the ninth before saying "screw it" and blowing away Eric the Younger and Seth Smith ( again! ) to end the game. Four scoreless in Coors Field, with 7 strikeouts. That is a spectacular performance by the Dodger 'pen.
Game 10000000 Unfair Loss Shares ( Rockies )
Smith -- 1
Young -- 1
Stewart -- 1
I almost gave Smith two shares. He struck out twice with the tying run on second, once against Broxton, once against Sherrill. But he did triple in a run and score, so he's only given the one. Young also went out twice with the tying run on second. Bad game. But he really looks like his father, doesn't he?
26 August 2009
Joe Torre is a Genius
I really should have known. I mean, I did know, which is why even as I was ranting and cutting loose with my frustration last night I added the caveat that Joe Torre should be fired only if both Broxton and Sherrill were healthy. It turns out Sherrill had a problem with his side, or something. Of course then Torre should have used Broxton ( in fact should have used him in the ninth instead of Troncoso ) but that is a battle that has long been lost. Torre will hold back his closer in road extra inning games every time. This is known and it will not change. Best to just accept it as part of the package.
The truth is I like Joe Torre. I think he's been a pretty good manager. He seems to get the team to play well more often than not. I'd rather have him than Tracy, that's for sure. So, Joe, I take it back. I don't want you fired. I offer my apologies, and promise to drink a cup of Bigelow Green Tea tonight.*
This series is about extremes. The wins leave me high and giddy and the losses leave me low and angry. You can see it from my entries. How high do I feel right now? High as an Ethier home run, I think. Either one will do. The Dodgers made sure this time and just hit the balls out of the park instead of taking the chance the Rockies would catch them again. Ethier, Ethier, Loney. Wolf was a bum at the plate but a hero everywhere else. Is he the new Dodger ace?
I think tomorrow's game favors the Rockies, slightly. It's a big game, with the Dodger lead swinging to either 2 or 4 depending upon the result. Though, honestly, I'm not sure it's that big of a game. I think in the end both of these teams are going to make the playoffs. But it sure feels like a big game.
Game 127 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Wolf -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Loney -- 1
Game 127 Unfair Loss Shares ( Rockies )
Fogg -- 3
*--promise will not be honored
The truth is I like Joe Torre. I think he's been a pretty good manager. He seems to get the team to play well more often than not. I'd rather have him than Tracy, that's for sure. So, Joe, I take it back. I don't want you fired. I offer my apologies, and promise to drink a cup of Bigelow Green Tea tonight.*
This series is about extremes. The wins leave me high and giddy and the losses leave me low and angry. You can see it from my entries. How high do I feel right now? High as an Ethier home run, I think. Either one will do. The Dodgers made sure this time and just hit the balls out of the park instead of taking the chance the Rockies would catch them again. Ethier, Ethier, Loney. Wolf was a bum at the plate but a hero everywhere else. Is he the new Dodger ace?
I think tomorrow's game favors the Rockies, slightly. It's a big game, with the Dodger lead swinging to either 2 or 4 depending upon the result. Though, honestly, I'm not sure it's that big of a game. I think in the end both of these teams are going to make the playoffs. But it sure feels like a big game.
Game 127 Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )
Wolf -- 1
Ethier -- 1
Loney -- 1
Game 127 Unfair Loss Shares ( Rockies )
Fogg -- 3
*--promise will not be honored
Still Two Left
Remember that 14 inning win the Rockies had over the Giants on Monday? The most amazing thing about that game to me is that the Rockies went five innings without scoring a run when a single run would have won the game. Bottom of the ninth through bottom of the thirteenth --- nothing. All that pressure on the Giants for five straight innings and they never caved. Shoot, you almost have to make an effort NOT to score in Coors field. You can score runs just tripping over yourself there. The Dodgers really needed to score three runs in the top of the ninth, or at least follow up with a run in the tenth. I applaud the two they scored, I really do, but without a follow-up it was just delaying the inevitable. They had to take the lead back quickly but never did.
Game 126 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Loney -- 2
McDonald -- 1
Until Manny had his clutch single to tie the game I had Ethier as the big villain. Really! Ethier was 3-4 with a walk but his one out almost cost the Dodgers a shot at a 4-4 tie, when he struck out with a runner on third and one out in the ninth inning. But after Manny's clutch hit Ethier was let off the blame, and it's just as well, because it would have been really strange to give a guy on base four times an unfair loss share. Instead my wrath descends upon Loney, who might even deserve three unfair loss shares. Instead he gets two, one for his sloppy throw and one for his terrible hitting.
Game 126 Unfair Win Shares ( Rockies )
Herges -- 1
Tulowitzki -- 1
Hawpe -- 1
Tonight's game is Wolf v. Fogg. If the Dodgers win, the headline will be "Dodgers Wolf Down Rockies". If the Rockies win, the headline will be "Dodgers Lost in a Fogg". Though there is a good chance neither starting pitcher will have much to do with the game in the end. Kershaw outpitched Hammel last night but it didn't do the Dodgers any good. Coors Field is like that.
Game 126 Unfair Loss Shares ( Dodgers )
Loney -- 2
McDonald -- 1
Until Manny had his clutch single to tie the game I had Ethier as the big villain. Really! Ethier was 3-4 with a walk but his one out almost cost the Dodgers a shot at a 4-4 tie, when he struck out with a runner on third and one out in the ninth inning. But after Manny's clutch hit Ethier was let off the blame, and it's just as well, because it would have been really strange to give a guy on base four times an unfair loss share. Instead my wrath descends upon Loney, who might even deserve three unfair loss shares. Instead he gets two, one for his sloppy throw and one for his terrible hitting.
Game 126 Unfair Win Shares ( Rockies )
Herges -- 1
Tulowitzki -- 1
Hawpe -- 1
Tonight's game is Wolf v. Fogg. If the Dodgers win, the headline will be "Dodgers Wolf Down Rockies". If the Rockies win, the headline will be "Dodgers Lost in a Fogg". Though there is a good chance neither starting pitcher will have much to do with the game in the end. Kershaw outpitched Hammel last night but it didn't do the Dodgers any good. Coors Field is like that.
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