02 July 2009

Pentastic --- Game 79 Unfair Win Shares

So what happened to the offense? Five runs in three games. Five runs in 31 innings. Damn, that's weak. The manager must be pulling out his hair, if he could actually get a hold of it, as it is rather short. The fans must be wondering where the magic went, cursing that it should disappear right when they needed it most, facing their mighty division foes. What happened to the Rockies offense?

Yes, for all the angst I have over the Dodger offense, I can at least take consolation that the Rockies have it worse. The Rockies not only lost the series, but they were also beat by the Dodgers in the run efficiency department: while both teams scored just five runs in the series, the Dodgers took one fewer inning to do it, thanks to yesterday's non-walk-off home win.

It really was a strange series. Pitchers knocked in 4 of the 10 runs scored. If you remove all the pitcher RBIs, then the Rockies would have outscored the Dodgers 3-1 in the series, winning the first game 2-0, winning the second game 1-0, and losing the last game 1-0. ( Ethier never would have hit his extra inning homer because the Rockies would have won in standard innings. )

Here are the innings and runs allowed by Dodger pitchers this past series:

Bills --- 7.2 -- 3
Wolf --- 6.0 -- 2
Kersh --- 5.0 -- 0
'pen --- 12.1 -- 0

I'm leaving the 'pen together to emphasize just how good they were. More than 4 innings per game and they still didn't allow a run. I'm still marveling over that Monday game, when 7 different 'pen pitchers pitched a scoreless inning. Not a weak link there. Mota? Not anymore. Perhaps I was wrong about him being a terrible signing, though to be sure he's only had one good month so far. But what a month it was! He's allowed only one run in 16 innings pitched this month ( though that run did cost the Dodgers a game ) and he's not doing it with luck, either, as he has 11 strikeouts and only 2 walks. Weaver, as the weak link, perhaps? Perhaps, but he's been a fine long man and spot starter all year, and frankly, if this is what your 11th or 12th best pitcher on staff gives you during the year, you've got an unbelievable staff.

Billingsley was the goat in the series, if there was one among the pitchers, but in another way he was the sacrificial hero. The 'pen pitched a lot of innings, between the long extra inning game and Kershaw typical brilliant but short 5 inning performance, and it would have been even more if Billingsley hadn't gone deep into Tuesday's game and given most of them the night off. Today is a day off, so even after this tough series the 'pen should be fully rested, with the possible exception of Belisario, who pitched two innings yesterday.

I want to give the 'pen three unfair win shares for this past game, just because they've been so great. But Furcal has to get one for his pinch hit RBI, and really I think Kershaw probably has to get one, leaving Belisario with the last one. It's so hard to choose between the relievers. On Monday I had to pick just one of the magnificent seven to get an unfair win share, and it ended up being McDonald just because he was the last. This time it goes to Belisario because he pitched the most.

Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Furcal -- 1
Kershaw -- 1
Belisario -- 1

Unfair Loss Shares ( Rockies )

Barmes -- 1
Tulowitzki -- 1
Spilborghs -- 1

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