10 June 2009

Game 60 Unfair Win Shares

For the Dodger unfair win shares, RBI and home run men Ethier and Kemp are easy. The last choice is a pitcher, and is more difficult. It comes down to timing and effectiveness. Broxton, Billingsley, and the Troncuilizer all struggled, allowing multiple baserunners per inning pitched, though none had a disastrous performance. Belisario and Leach were the only spotless Dodger pitchers, though Leach only pitched to one batter. Moreover Belisario held the Dodgers' two run lead in the seventh inning, and prevented Gonzalez from coming up with a man on base. That was an under-the-radar clutch moment, in my opinion, and gets him the unfair win share. Sometimes relievers will get them for one good inning, if the circumstance is right.

Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Ethier -- 1
Kemp -- 1
Belisario -- 1

After losing pitcher Young this is a weird one for the Padres. Giles and Kouzmanoff each had a hit in the game, and each had at least one RBI. But both of them also left many many runners on base. Kouzmanoff had a terrible strike out against Troncoso in the eighth inning --- he whiffed on ball four, and Gonzalez was at first, and the next hitter would go on to single --- it seems that every time the Padres play the Dodgers Kouzmanoff has a hand in killing a few rallies.

Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )

Giles -- 1
Kouzmanoff -- 1
Young -- 1

1 comment:

Griffster said...

Poor Belisario, in my mind, have distinguished himself as "Mr. Enters-with-a-one-run-lead, blows-it-by-giving-up-two-runs."

Of course, like all unfair perspectives on baseball, this one is not all true, all of the time. Mr B. have been in 30 games so far this year, and and given up 2 runs only four times.

So, the least I can do for the poor guy is to tell him when he earned his unfair reputation, to makes it like with the unfair shares.

It was cemented during two games within a week of each other, way back at the end of April.

First, he entered on April 22nd with a one run lead against the Astros in Houston - this after the Dodgers scored what was then the go-ahead run in the top of the eighth - and proceeded to cough up two runs, leading to a one-run Astros win an inning later. It smarted its way into the memory banks but as a one-time event, held little power.

Then, a few days later, the Dodgers are up in the Bay Area holding a one-run lead over the Giants going into the eighth inning, thanks to a four-run seventh that was their only scoring of the match. Enter Belisario, who, to be fair, pitched the seventh inning as well. And ... he proceeds to give up two runs, leading to a one-run win for the Giants. His reputation gets cemented: Twice the Dodgers had just done good things, and Belisario dropped them back into the drink. And so that became his defining trait and I give him some stink-eye every time he enters the game.

He also had cameo reminders, just to make sure I wouldn't forget those two games in April: on May 16th he turned a one-run Marlin lead into a three-run Marlin lead that put the game away for good, and on June 6th the ninth-inning tie off of Lidge and an extra-inning run for the win bailed him out from again turning a one-run lead into a one-run deficit.

I will give Belisario a fair chance to undo his reputation: go a full month without turning a one-run win into a one-run loss, and I will clear your reputation ;-)