04 May 2009

Game 26 Unfair Win Shares

The bottom of the first

That was when Gaudin lost the game before he was even in the game. Eight pitches, none of them taken for a ball. Eight pitches, two strikes looking, two foul offs, and four base hits. If you're wild out of the strike zone, your defeat will be slow and agonizing. You'll have time to ponder your fate and hope for reprieve as you slowly fill the bases on walks. If you're wild out over the middle of the plate, you fate is already upon you. "They ambushed me," said Guadin after the game. Perhaps. But maybe you also weren't ready.

The top of the sixth

That was when the Padres had their look at the game. Billingsley was wild: he had walked two and thrown a wild pitch. His two outs in the inning had come on three ball counts. He had thrown only 10 strikes in the 24 pitches in the inning. The bases were loaded. This was the moment when the Padres could strike.

Instead, three pitches later, Nick Hundley had struck out and the Padres were left grasping at nothing. From the Dodgers perspective, that's just Billingsley being clutch. But from the Padres perspective, what is it? I don't know.

The bottom of the sixth

We see it so often. A pitcher is hit early, then settles down, then is hit late again and knocked out of the game. By the end of it his numbers look pretty bad, but for those middle innings he was actually pitching well. What does Gaudin take from this game? That he mostly pitched well, but was beat by a good offensive team? But look at the guys who got hits off of him in the sixth inning rally, and he can't really think that. Maybe he shouldn't think about the game at all.

Bud Black is spared his third pointy-haired loss share, since he didn't really have a chance to muck things up, but he's still going to come in for some more needling for his strange bullpen usage. Here is a section from an article on Padres.com about Bell not being used recently:

Bell was up and throwing in the bullpen in both games but didn't appear in either. On Friday, it was Duaner Sanchez who walked in the winning run. Then Saturday, it was rookie Luke Gregerson who allowed the game-winning hit in the 10th inning.

"There are times when you can bring him in," Black said. "There's a time when you bring a guy in based on the freshness of the other members of the bullpen. It can be a dangerous situation if you do it all the time. On the road, you still need to get the last three outs of the game."

But if you rely on Luke Gregerson in a tie game you don't have to worry about those last three outs at all, right Bud?

Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Billingsley -- 1
Pierre -- 1
Hudson -- 1

Unfair Loss Shares ( Padres )

Gaudin -- 2
Hundley -- 1


Griffster said...

Oh, that Pierre would get an unfair win share! That's really unfair ;-)

Maybe Pierre can build up some value in limited action and bring something back in a trade? ( One can dream. )

I took a look at the upcoming schedule and this home stand will be the last stretch of easy opponents for a while. From May 12th through May 31st, Dodger wins are going to mean something - that they won tough games, instead of rolling the likes of the pathetic Padres into a little ball ;-)

Of course, June then brings the nemesis of NL teams - interleague plays. The Dodgers draw all AL West this year, except for three in the White Sox launching facility.

I'm looking forward to that month and a half stretch of tough games. It will be another step up for the Dodgers. There's still a lot of steps left - they are managing the first step successfully by beating up on weak teams, so I have good hope that the next step up will be navigated successfully, too, and the Dodgers would be on the way to a good season.

Until then, all the power ranking journalists are going to qualify their record with "But they did all that against the terribly soft NL West" ;-)

Joshua Worley said...

Well, espn power rankings have the Dodgers first.

And I would consider Juan to have brought something back in trade if the other team was willing to pay even half of his salary!