14 May 2009

Game 35 Unfair Win Shares

The Dodgers have the best record in the Major Leagues again!

In the six games since Manny was suspended, the Dodgers have outscored their opposition by 7 runs, though their record is only 2-4. The four losses were all by 2 runs, while the wins were by 8 and 7 runs.

Randy Wolf's ERA is now 2.77. He's striking out nearly a batter an inning. His K to walk ratio is as good as it's been since his Ceasar salad days with the Phillies in 2001 and 2002. ( So maybe it won't last? ) But his fly ball to ground ball ratio is higher than it's ever been as well, so he figures to give up plenty of home runs in the games ahead. Better not walk anyone ahead of those homers.

James Loney hit his first home run of the season yesterday. I hope he can hit his next one before the All-Star break. Aww, I'm just kidding, sort of. It's just that it's hard to feel confident about Loney these days. Let's see, according to Hardball Times his line drive percentage is 13th in the NL among qualifying batters --- that's about as good as a positive for him that I can come up with. Maybe some hits will start to fall in. While Loney may be getting a little unlucky, he has nothing on Andy LaRoche, who is third in the NL with a 28.4 line drive percentage but has a batting average on balls in play BABIP that is actually lower, at 0.276. I've always heard that, roughly speaking, on average, BABIP = LD% + 0.12. So either Andy is really unlucky or his line drives are pretty lame.

Loney and Wolf are obvious for two of the unfair win shares. The front-runner for the last spot on the podium is Casey Blake, who drove in three runs and hit a homer. And I also really want to give him one just to get his unfair share record off of 0-0. But I can't. Blake's three runs driven in came after the Dodgers led 6-1. It's not that those aren't important runs, not with some of the shaky arms in the 'pen, but Hudson's contributions early were even more important. Hudson drove in the first run and scored the second run, then later got on base and scored the sixth run, all before Blake ever got involved. Sorry, Blake. You'll have to be content with a Laugher Share.

On the Phillies side, it is with great delight that I give Shane Victorino the non-Myers unfair loss share for his stink bomb 0-5 batting performance. Oh, maybe some of those outs were line outs, but in the box score they all look like failed bunts to the pitcher.

Unfair Win Shares ( Dodgers )

Loney -- 1
Wolf -- 1
Hudson -- 1

Laugher Share ( Dodgers )

Blake -- 1

Unfair Loss Shares ( Phillies )

Moyer -- 2
Victorino -- 1

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